EM LATAM CREDIT: MNI EM Credit Market Wrap - LATAM (20 May)
Source: BBG
Measure Level Δ DoD
5yr UST 4.06% +0bp
10yr UST 4.48% +3bp
5s-10s UST 41.5 +3bp
WTI Crude 62.6 -0.1
Gold 3295 +65.5
Bonds (CBBT) Z-Sprd Δ DoD
ARGENT 3 1/2 07/09/41 855bp -3bp
BRAZIL 6 1/8 03/15/34 258bp -1bp
BRAZIL 7 1/8 05/13/54 368bp -2bp
COLOM 8 11/14/35 412bp -3bp
COLOM 8 3/8 11/07/54 501bp -3bp
ELSALV 7.65 06/15/35 419bp -1bp
MEX 6 7/8 05/13/37 275bp +1bp
MEX 7 3/8 05/13/55 337bp -0bp
CHILE 5.65 01/13/37 153bp -2bp
PANAMA 6.4 02/14/35 320bp +4bp
CSNABZ 5 7/8 04/08/32 556bp -3bp
MRFGBZ 3.95 01/29/31 257bp +1bp
PEMEX 7.69 01/23/50 628bp -1bp
CDEL 6.33 01/13/35 210bp +5bp
SUZANO 3 1/8 01/15/32 214bp -2bp
FX Level Δ DoD
USDBRL 5.67 +0.02
USDCLP 944.07 +6.30
USDMXN 19.3 -0.04
USDCOP 4169.26 -3.89
USDPEN 3.69 -0.00
CDS Level Δ DoD
Mexico 119 (1)
Brazil 164 (2)
Colombia 225 (1)
Chile 56 (0)
CDX EM 96.97 0.02
CDX EM IG 100.94 0.02
CDX EM HY 92.98 0.12
Main stories recap:
Comments
· Concerns about U.S. economic growth and fiscal policy triggered a steepening of the U.S. Treasury curve with people growing more apprehensive about debt sustainability.
· EM Asia benchmark spreads tightened up to 6 bps while the new issue calendar became more active with three new issues. CEEMEA exhibited a similar tightening bias and a couple of new issues following through from yesterday’s mandate announcements.
· The LATAM primary market was orderly with Argentine energy company Pampa Energia pricing a tap of 2034 notes while Telecom Argentina patiently waited its turn after a mandate announcement yesterday and Argentina’s Pluspetrol also hovered.
· LATAM secondary market benchmark spreads generally tightened 1-3bps with not many outliers. Codelco bonds underperformed, widening 5 bps on news of Moody’s credit rating downgrade.
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
CARNEY ELECTION PLATFORM HAS CAD225B OF DEFICITS OVER FOUR YRS
- CARNEY ELECTION PLATFORM HAS CAD225B OF DEFICITS OVER FOUR YRS
- CARNEY SEES 2025-26 BUDGET DEFICIT OF CAD62.3B OR 2% OF GDP
- CARNEY PLANS TO REACH 2% NATO TARGET BEFORE 2030
- CARNEY SEES NEW CAD10B ANNUAL PLAN FOR GREEN TRANSITION BONDS
LOOK AHEAD: Eurozone Timeline of Key Events (Times BST)
| Date | Time | Country | Event |
| 25-Apr | 0745 | FR | Manufacturing Sentiment |
| 29-Apr | 0700 | DE | GFK Consumer Climate |
| 29-Apr | 0800 | ES | HICP (p) / GDP |
| 29-Apr | 0900 | EU | M3 / Consumer Expectations Survey |
| 29-Apr | 0900 | IT | ISTAT Confidence Indices |
| 29-Apr | 1000 | EU | Consumer Confidence, Industrial Sentiment |
| 30-Apr | 0630 | FR | GDP (p) / Consumer Spending |
| 30-Apr | 0700 | DE | Import/Export Prices / Retail Sales |
| 30-Apr | 0745 | FR | HICP (p) / PPI |
| 30-Apr | 0855 | DE | Unemployment |
| 30-Apr | 0900 | DE | GDP (p) / State level CPI |
| 30-Apr | 0900 | IT | GDP (p) |
| 30-Apr | 1000 | EU | GDP preliminary flash est. |
| 30-Apr | 1000 | IT | HICP (p) |
| 30-Apr | 1100 | IT | PPI |
| 30-Apr | 1300 | DE | HICP (p) |
JGBS: Twist-Steepener Holds Going Into W/E, BoJ Gov Ueda Reiterates Caution
JGB futures are stronger, +18 compared to settlement levels, sitting near the middle of the range after a choppy session.
- “Governor Kazuo Ueda reiterates his stance that the central bank will carefully monitor if its economic outlook will be realized, accounting for the effects of US tariff measures, without preconception. The BoJ will raise the benchmark rate if the outlook is realized, Ueda says in response to questions in parliament.” (per BBG)
- “Fukoku Mutual Life Insurance Co. plans to invest in Japan's super-long government bonds this fiscal year after their yields skyrocketed. The company aims to increase domestic government bond holdings by ¥30 billion, with gross purchases potentially reaching ¥300-400 billion.” (per BBG)
- Earlier today, Headline CPI for March showed +3.6% y/y versus +3.7% estimate. Core and Core-Core printed +3.2% y/y and +2.9% y/y, respectively, versus estimates of +3.2% and +2.9% and priors +3.0% and +2.6%.
- Cash US tsys are closed today for the Good Friday holiday.
- Cash JGBs have twist-steepened, pivoting at the 20-year, with yields 2bps lower to 5bps higher.
- Swap rates are 2bps lower to 2bps higher, with a steepening bias.
- On Monday, the local calendar will see Tokyo Condominiums for Sale data.
