EM CEEMEA CREDIT: MNI EM Credit Market Wrap - CEEMEA (23 Apr)
Apr-23 14:56
| MNI EM Credit Market Wrap - CEEMEA (23 Apr) | |||
| Source: Bloomberg data (*CBBT/BGN) | |||
| Metrics | Level | Δ DoD | |
| 5yr UST | 3.97% | -2bp | |
| 10yr UST | 4.33% | -7bp | |
| 5s-10s UST | 35.58 | -5bp | |
| WTI Crude | 62.6 | -1.1 | |
| Gold | 3286 | -95.0 | |
| iShares EM IOPV | 89.5 | 1.0% | |
| FX | Level | Δ DoD | |
| USDZAR | 18.63 | +0.01 | |
| USDTRY | 38.28 | +0.01 | |
| EURHUF | 408.6 | -0.35 | |
| EURPLN | 4.28 | -0.01 | |
| EURCZK | 24.99 | -0.07 | |
| Sov bonds* | Z-Sprd | Δ DoD | |
| REPHUN 5 1/2 03/26/36 | 239bp | -8bp | |
| POLAND 5 1/8 09/18/34 | 147bp | -2bp | |
| ROMANI 5 3/4 03/24/35 | 351bp | -6bp | |
| TURKEY 6 1/2 01/03/35 | 377bp | -6bp | |
| KAZAKS 4.714 04/09/35 | 147bp | -3bp | |
| UZBEK 6.9 02/28/32 | 348bp | -15bp | |
| UKRAIN 1 3/4 02/01/35 | 1142bp | -23bp | |
| ISRAEL 5 1/2 03/12/34 | 194bp | -7bp | |
| KSA 5 5/8 01/13/35 | 140bp | -6bp | |
| ADGB 5 04/30/34 | 74bp | -3bp | |
| QATAR 4 3/4 05/29/34 | 85bp | -4bp | |
| OMAN 7 3/8 10/28/32 | 177bp | -20bp | |
| BHRAIN 7 1/2 02/12/36 | 313bp | -10bp | |
| SOAF 7.1 11/19/36 | 397bp | -13bp | |
| ANGOL 8 3/4 04/14/32 | 955bp | -49bp | |
| ZAMBIN 5 3/4 06/30/33 | 1006bp | -70bp | |
| MOZAM 9 09/15/31 | 1412bp | -24bp | |
| NGERIA 10 3/8 12/09/34 | 702bp | -27bp | |
| GHANA 5 07/03/35 | 948bp | -31bp | |
| IVYCST 8.075 04/01/36 | 512bp | -20bp | |
| BENIN 8 3/8 01/23/41 | 544bp | -22bp | |
| SENEGL 6 1/4 05/23/33 | 1053bp | +7bp | |
| MOROC 6 1/2 09/08/33 | 221bp | -5bp | |
| EGYPT 7.3 09/30/33 | 688bp | -25bp | |
| KENINT 9 1/2 03/05/36 | 768bp | -32bp | |
| RWANDA 5 1/2 08/09/31 | 682bp | -22bp | |
| Corp bonds* | Z-Sprd | Δ DoD | |
| ESKOM 8.45 08/10/28 | 447bp | -23bp | |
| SASOL 8 3/4 05/03/29 | 637bp | -19bp | |
| SGLSJ 4 1/2 11/16/29 | 552bp | -29bp | |
| GFISJ 6 1/8 05/15/29 | 168bp | -12bp | |
| OCPMR 6 3/4 05/02/34 | 287bp | -1bp | |
| FMCN 8 03/01/33 | 450bp | -21bp | |
| IHS 8 1/4 11/29/31 | 559bp | -9bp | |
| AZURGY 8 1/8 01/23/30 | 562bp | -17bp | |
| SEPLLN 9 1/8 03/21/30 | 687bp | -27bp | |
| ACKAF 8 1/2 09/25/28 | 389bp | -8bp | |
| AEFES 3 3/8 06/29/28 | 403bp | -14bp | |
| SISETI 8 5/8 05/02/32 | 506bp | -9bp | |
| TCELLT 7.45 01/24/30 | 375bp | -12bp | |
| TURKTI 7 3/8 05/20/29 | 371bp | -15bp | |
| ULKER 7 7/8 07/08/31 | 424bp | -7bp | |
| PKNPW 6 01/30/35 | 217bp | -5bp | |
| ROMGAZ 4 3/4 10/07/29 | 272bp | -12bp | |
| MVMHU 6 1/2 03/13/31 | 256bp | -4bp | |
| MLGPW 6 1/8 10/15/29 | 362bp | -14bp | |
| NAVOIM 6.95 10/17/31 | 326bp | -12bp | |
| JSCKSP 6 1/4 03/26/30 | 330bp | -16bp | |
| METINV 7 3/4 10/17/29 | 1039bp | -11bp | |
| ARAGVI 11 1/8 11/20/29 | 758bp | -12bp | |
| ARAMCO 5 1/4 07/17/34 | 149bp | -3bp | |
| MAADEN 5 1/4 02/13/30 | 134bp | -5bp | |
| SABIC 2.15 09/14/30 | 129bp | -11bp | |
| SECO 5.225 02/18/30 | 141bp | -6bp | |
| STCAB 3.89 05/13/29 | 105bp | -2bp | |
| ABDPOC 2 1/2 05/06/31 | 109bp | -0bp | |
| ADNOCM 4 1/2 09/11/34 | 126bp | -2bp | |
| ALDAR 5 1/4 03/25/35 | 138bp | -1bp | |
| DAMACR 7 08/26/28 | 319bp | -5bp | |
| ETISLT 0 7/8 05/17/33 | 99bp | -3bp | |
| EMAAR 3.7 07/06/31 | 132bp | -2bp | |
| MASDAR 5 1/4 07/25/34 | 142bp | -2bp | |
| MUBAUH 5.294 06/04/34 | 140bp | -6bp | |
| TABRED 5.279 03/05/30 | 132bp | -8bp | |
| TAQAUH 4 3/8 10/09/31 | 109bp | -4bp | |
| DUBAEE 3 3/8 03/20/28 | 141bp | -6bp | |
| QPETRO 2 1/4 07/12/31 | 105bp | -4bp | |
| QTELQD 4 5/8 10/10/34 | 115bp | -0bp | |
| BEXBAH 6 1/4 01/29/35 | 225bp | -2bp | |
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Historical bullets
EQUITY TECHS: E-MINI S&P: (M5) Trades Through The 20-Day EMA
Mar-24 14:52
- RES 4: 5970.87 61.8% retracement of the Feb 19 - Mar 13 bear leg
- RES 3: 5929.04 50-day EMA
- RES 2: 5864.25 Low Jan 13 and a recent breakout level
- RES 1: 5808.00 Intraday high
- PRICE: 5803.50 @ 14:41 GMT Mar 24
- SUP 1: 5650.75/5559.75 Low Mar 18 / 13 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 5483.50 2.00 proj of the Dec 6 ‘24 - Jan 13 - Feb 19 swing
- SUP 3: 5396.00 2.236 proj of the Dec 6 ‘24 - Jan 13 - Feb 19 swing
- SUP 4: 5341.87 2.382 proj of the Dec 6 ‘24 - Jan 13 - Feb 19 swing
The trend condition in S&P E-Minis is bearish and the latest recovery appears corrective. MA studies are unchanged - they remain in a bear-mode set-up, highlighting a dominant downtrend. However, today’s gains have resulted in a breach of the 20-day EMA, at 5801.77. This signals scope for a continuation higher near-term - towards 5864.25, the Jan 13 low. A reversal lower would refocus attention on 5559.75, the Mar 13 low and bear trigger.
EURGBP TECHS: Pierces The 50-Day EMA
Mar-24 14:44
- RES 4: 0.8530 76.4% retracement of the Aug 8 - Dec 19 ‘24 bear leg
- RES 3: 0.8494 High Aug 26 ‘24
- RES 2: 0.8474 High Jan 20 and a key resistance
- RES 1: 0.8428/8450 High Mar 18 / 11 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 0.8378@ 06:31 GMT Mar 24
- SUP 1: 0.8351/46 50-day EMA and pivot support / Intraday low
- SUP 2: 0.8321 61.8% retracement of the Mar 3 - 11 bull leg
- SUP 3: 0.8391 76.4% retracement of the Mar 3 - 11 bull leg
- SUP 4: 0.8241 Low Mar 3 and a key support
EURGBP remains in a retracement mode. The cross has recently breached 0.8369, the Mar 14 low, and attention is on the 50-day EMA, at 0.8351. The average marks a key short-term pivot level. It has been pierced, a clear break would undermine the recent bull theme and signal scope for a deeper pullback, towards 0.8321, a Fibonacci retracement. Key resistance and the bull trigger is 0.8450, the Mar 11 high.
FED FUNDS FUTURES: BLOCK: Jul'25 Fed Funds Sale
Mar-24 14:44
- -12,000 FFN5 95.86, post time bid at 1038:41ET
