EM CEEMEA CREDIT: MNI EM Credit Market Wrap - CEEMEA

• After this morning’s flash PMIs, the remainder of the week remains key with both labour market data (Tues) and CPI data (Wed) ahead of the MPC policy decision and MPS being released on Thursday.
• The bottom line is that unless there are absolutely huge surprises in this week’s data, it looks very likely that Bank Rate will be left on hold. Our base case is for an 8-1 vote split (with Dhingra again preferring a 25bp cut) but soft CPI and wage data could lead to additional dissents for sequential cuts from either Taylor or Ramsden.
• We see downside risks to CPI if the survey date is 19 November (rather than the widely expected 12 November). We discuss the impact of the date on Black Friday discounts.
• For the labour market, we continue to pay most attention to private sector regular (i.e. non-bonus) AWE. This came in at 4.80%Y/Y in the 3-months to September (0.05ppt above the BOE’s 4.75% projection in the November MPR). 7/9 of the analyst previews that we have read look for a pickup of 2 tenths to 5.0%Y/Y in the 3-months to October (with one analyst at 5.1%Y/Y and one at 4.9%Y/Y).

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US President-elect Donald Trump, delivering a press conference at Mar-a-Lago alongside SoftBank CEO Masayoshi Son and Commerce Secretary nominee Howard Lutnick, has announced that SoftBank will invest USD$100 billion in the US, which Trump claims will create 100,000 new jobs. 

• Masayoshi says he hopes Trump, “will bring the world into peace again,” and notes his confidence level in the US has increased “tremendously.”
• Trump touches on foreign policy, saying he’s “trying to get the war stopped” in the Middle East.
• On Ukraine, Trump says: “…we’ve got a little progress. It’s a nasty one…” Trump adds that he’s “getting reports every week” about the human toll of the conflict: “What’s happening is far worse than anyone is reporting, for both sides.”
• On domestic policy, Trump says: “Already preparations are underway to slash millions of job-killing regulations, eliminating 10 regulations for every new one…”
• Trump says he “will be in court” to overturn a Biden administration waiver preventing workers being compelled to return to the office.
• Trump says, “I’ll keep my promise to pass historic tax cuts for the American families, workers, and businesses.”
• On corporation tax, Trump says “we’re bringing it down to 15%, but only if they make their products [in the US].”
• On energy, Trump says: “We’ll soon unleash American energy, this will be done at levels not seen before. Issuing quick approvals for pipelines, drilling, and other infrastructure… we’ll bring down the price of electricity fast.” Trump adds, “we’re going to be doing a lot of clean coal.” 

• RES 4: 112-02   Low Oct 14
• RES 3: 111-24   38.2% retrace of the Sep 11 - Nov 15 bear leg  
• RES 2: 111-07+/111-20+ 50-day EMA / High 6 and the bull trigger  
• RES 1: 110-22   20-day EMA
• PRICE:‌‌ 109-26 @ 16:52 GMT Dec 16
• SUP 1: 109-24+   Low Dec 16         
• SUP 2: 109-22   76.4% retracement of the Nov 15 - Dec 6 Upleg
• SUP 3: 109-20   Low Nov 20/21    
• SUP 4: 109-02+ Low Nov 15 and the bear trigger

A bearish short-term theme in Treasury futures remains intact and the contract is trading at its recent lows. It is still possible that the latest pullback is a correction. Initial resistance to watch is 110-22, the 20-day EMA. A break would highlight an early bullish development. Key resistance and the bull trigger is at 111-20+, the Dec 6 high.For bears, a continuation lower would expose 109-22 next, a Fibonacci retracement.