EM CEEMEA CREDIT: MNI EM Credit market update CEEMEA (Apr 23)
MNI EM Credit market update CEEMEA (Apr 23)
- In Rates, the session is heading to a close with UST 10Y yields at 4.33%, -7bp. Curve flattening shows in 5s/10s at 35.58, -5bp.
- In Credit Sovereign, spread moves show a tightening bias into the close. Ukraine’s Feb35s chart 23bp tighter. Among high-beta names, moves for Zambia’s 33s chart -70bp, Angola’s 32s show -50bp and Nigeria’s 34s -27bp.
- Among Corporates, spread moves show Eskom’s 28s -23bp, and Sasol’s 29s -19bp and Sybanye’s 29s -29bp. Gold Fields got affirmed by Moody’s, perhaps time to revisit tapping primary. Nigeria’s Seplat 30s chart tighter by 27bp. Primary is active with earlier mandates out today. We sketched FV considerations earlier on Morocco’s fertiliser producer OCP, Czechia’s multi-utility CEZ and UAE’s Ajman Bank. UAE’s bank Commercial Bank of Dubai reported solid 1Q25 results showing improved asset quality (neutral take).
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EQUITY TECHS: E-MINI S&P: (M5) Trades Through The 20-Day EMA
- RES 4: 5970.87 61.8% retracement of the Feb 19 - Mar 13 bear leg
- RES 3: 5929.04 50-day EMA
- RES 2: 5864.25 Low Jan 13 and a recent breakout level
- RES 1: 5808.00 Intraday high
- PRICE: 5803.50 @ 14:41 GMT Mar 24
- SUP 1: 5650.75/5559.75 Low Mar 18 / 13 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 5483.50 2.00 proj of the Dec 6 ‘24 - Jan 13 - Feb 19 swing
- SUP 3: 5396.00 2.236 proj of the Dec 6 ‘24 - Jan 13 - Feb 19 swing
- SUP 4: 5341.87 2.382 proj of the Dec 6 ‘24 - Jan 13 - Feb 19 swing
The trend condition in S&P E-Minis is bearish and the latest recovery appears corrective. MA studies are unchanged - they remain in a bear-mode set-up, highlighting a dominant downtrend. However, today’s gains have resulted in a breach of the 20-day EMA, at 5801.77. This signals scope for a continuation higher near-term - towards 5864.25, the Jan 13 low. A reversal lower would refocus attention on 5559.75, the Mar 13 low and bear trigger.
EURGBP TECHS: Pierces The 50-Day EMA
- RES 4: 0.8530 76.4% retracement of the Aug 8 - Dec 19 ‘24 bear leg
- RES 3: 0.8494 High Aug 26 ‘24
- RES 2: 0.8474 High Jan 20 and a key resistance
- RES 1: 0.8428/8450 High Mar 18 / 11 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 0.8378@ 06:31 GMT Mar 24
- SUP 1: 0.8351/46 50-day EMA and pivot support / Intraday low
- SUP 2: 0.8321 61.8% retracement of the Mar 3 - 11 bull leg
- SUP 3: 0.8391 76.4% retracement of the Mar 3 - 11 bull leg
- SUP 4: 0.8241 Low Mar 3 and a key support
EURGBP remains in a retracement mode. The cross has recently breached 0.8369, the Mar 14 low, and attention is on the 50-day EMA, at 0.8351. The average marks a key short-term pivot level. It has been pierced, a clear break would undermine the recent bull theme and signal scope for a deeper pullback, towards 0.8321, a Fibonacci retracement. Key resistance and the bull trigger is 0.8450, the Mar 11 high.
FED FUNDS FUTURES: BLOCK: Jul'25 Fed Funds Sale
- -12,000 FFN5 95.86, post time bid at 1038:41ET
