EM ASIA CREDIT: MNI EM Credit Market Update - Asia

SFRU5 97.00 calls paper paid 2.5 on 3K.

OEM5 5,963 lots blocked at 118.860, looks like a buyer based on prevailing quotes but Subsequent price action points to a seller. DV01 ~EUR370K.

Important supports in Scandi crosses are being tested this morning, clearance of which could extend recent outperformance against the broader G10 basket. The improved risk backdrop following the US/EU 50% tariff delay has provided a tailwind to NOK and SEK today, though the Scandis also traded resiliently in the wake of Trump’s initial tariff announcement last Friday.

• This suggests the broader theme of rotation out of the USD is continuing to benefit NOK and SEK (alongside the EUR) as has been the case through this year.
• Key near-term supports to watch:
  • EURSEK (-0.3% today at 10.8010): April 4 low at 10.7941. A clear breach of this would expose 10.6652 (April 3 and multi-year low).
  • USDSEK (-0.5% today at 9.4820): April 22 low at 9.4704.
  • EURNOK (unch today at 11.4830): May 23 low at 11.4621. The cross has pared around 80% of the sharp 8.55% rally seen between April 2 – April 11
  •  USDNOK (-0.5% today at 10.0690): December 2023 low at 10.0562, clearance of which would expose the July 2023 low at 9.9249.
• The last week’s price action still leaves an uptrend in NOKSEK intact, with the uptrend drawn from the April 9 low underpinning the cross, helping narrow the gap to the key 0.9500 medium-term pivot level.
• This week’s Scandi calendar is heavy, with activity data due from both Sweden and Norway. While a June Norges Bank cut seems highly unlikely at this stage, a weak set of Swedish readings could tilt the balance in favour of a June Riksbank cut to 2.00%.