EM ASIA CREDIT: MNI EM Credit Market Update - Asia
U.S. 10y treasury yields are 2bp lower at 4.5% with markets concerned about the US fiscal position. The rally in Gold this week (+4%) reflecting investor concerns. Asia EM credit was mostly better in the day with govie/agency $ spreads up to -5bp tighter, the Philippines the outlier (-5bp). Thaid President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. is retaining his finance minister, Recto, who resigned yesterday as part of a call by the President for cabinet ministers to resign - designed to help facilitate a cabinet reshuffle. Overnight we had the China Hongqiao $270m 3.5y deal price at 6.925% versus our fair value estimate of 6.95%. We also see a couple of new mandates today, including from Guangxi Communications Investment ($ deal) and Shandong Gold ($ perp.). In corporate news, UltraTech Cement continues to debottleneck operations, building capacity.
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BUNDS: Trade developments are firmly at the forefront
- Tariffs are clearly at the forefront, EGBs and Bund have brushed aside the weaker German PMIs, Bund now tests Yesterday's low, with the Risk Tone tilted to the upside following Trump's comment on Powell, and offers of a good deal for China on any potential trade talks.
- Yesterday's low in Bund is still holding right now, but downside traction will Open to 130.87, the 17th April low.
SWAPS: German ASWs Narrow As Sentiment Recovers
Front end of the German ASW curve leads this morning’s move lower, driven by broader risk-on price action largely derived from President Trump pushing back against the idea that he is looking to fire Fed Chair Powell and some comments pointing to a potential moderation in the Sino-U.S. trade war.
- Spreads vs. 3-month Euribor 1.2-3.0bp lower on the day.
- No meaningful reaction to the flash PMI data, Bunds incrementally weaker in the time since.
MNI: GERMANY FLASH APRIL MANUF PMI 48.0 (FCAST 47.6, MAR 48.3)
- MNI: GERMANY FLASH APRIL MANUF PMI 48.0 (FCAST 47.6, MAR 48.3)
- GERMANY FLASH APRIL SERVICES PMI 48.8 (FCAST 50.2, MAR 50.9)
