ECB: MNI ECB Transcript - March 2026

Tuesday's Europe rates/bond options flow included: 

• DUJ6 106.90/107.00/107.10c fly, bought for 1.75 up to 2 in 10k
• OEH6 117c vs OEJ6 118.50c, bought the April for -4 (receive) in 2k
• ERU6 98.06/98.00/97.87 broken p ladder, bought for 2.75 and 3 in 20k
• ERU6 97.75/97.62ps, bought for half in 10k
• ERZ6 98.06/97.93ps 1x2, bought for 2 in 10k
• ERZ7 98.50/99.00 call spread, bought for 4.5 in 20k
• 0RH6 97.9375/97.8125/97.75p fly, bought for 1.25 in 8k
• SFIM6 96.45/96.35/96.25p ladder, sold at 0.25 in 15.75k
• SFIM6 96.50/96.35ps 1x1.5, bought for 1.25 in 8k
• SFIZ6 96.85/97.00cs, bought for 5 in 10k vs SFIM6 96.45/96.60cs, sold at 11.5 in 4k
• 0NZ6 97.00/97.40 call spread, bought for 5.5 in +10k

• US TSY 52W AUCTION: NON-COMP BIDS $1.112 BLN FROM $50.000 BLN TOTAL

• Sterling weakness has been a key feature across the G10 FX space on Tuesday, price action that followed a softer-than-expected set of labour market data from the UK. Alongside a firmer dollar backdrop, GBPUSD is down 0.65% as we approach the APAC crossover, briefly slipping below 1.35.
• Today’s move lower has seen the pair breach the 50-day EMA, and a sustained break of this average would undermine the recent bull theme. Meanwhile, EURGBP has rallied over half a percent on the session, and in the process has pierced a key resistance point at 0.8746, the Jan 21 high. A clear break of this level would also highlight a potential trend reversal.
• Elsewhere, volatility for the Japanese yen has not abated, with USDJPY posting a 122pip range on the session. Initial strength for JGBs and waning risk sentiment prompted a move down for USDJPY to session lows of 152.70, however, the broader USD bid and eventual stabilising risk sentiment allowed the move to steadily reverse across the session, resulting in fresh highs at 153.92.
• Short-term USDJPY parameters appear well established; the January lows at 152.10 provide key support, while the post-NFP highs at 154.65 offer the most notable resistance.
• Downside momentum for EURUSD had also been steadily playing out across Tuesday’s session, with the latest weakness testing the lows from last Monday’s range, of which spot had been trading within over the past six sessions. A lower close for EURUSD today would represent a sixth consecutive session of declines. Akey support area for EURUSD combines both the Feb 06 low and the 50-day EMA, just below 1.1770.
• Aussie wage price index data and the RBNZ decision highlight the APAC data docket, before the focus turns to UK CPI on Wednesday. Later in the session, FOMC minutes will take the spotlight.