MNI EXCLUSIVE: MNI Discusses BoJ's Neutral Rate Stance

• Markets are anticipated to be quiet today given no lead from cash in from the US due to Veteran's day holiday.  With cash closed overnight, bond futures finished higher, with the 10-Yr up +0-11 to 113-00.  The move higher takes the US 10-yr back above the 20-day EMA of 112-30, having trended below it towards the end of October.  
• Volumes are anticipated to remain low with investors looking ahead to the US$42bn 10-Yr issuance as the next guide for market demand.  

• RES 3: 95.982 - 76.4% retracement Sep’24 - Nov’24 downleg
• RES 2: 95.960 - High Apr 7 (cont.)
• RES 1: 95.900 - High Oct 17
• PRICE: 95.630 @ 16:16 GMT Nov 11
• SUP 1: 95.510 - Low Sep 3  
• SUP 2: 95.415/95.300 - Low May 15 / Low Jan 14 
• SUP 3: 95.275 - Low Nov 14  (cont) and a key support

Aussie 10-yr futures slipped lower last week on the back of hotter-than-expected inflation data. This returned prices lower despite nascent signs of a technical recovery as recently as late October. The sustainability of the pullback will be dependent on prices holding above key short-term support at 95.510, the Sep 3 low. Near-term resistance remains 95.780, the Sep 12 high. A clear break of this level signals scope for a continuation higher and opens 95.960, the 76.4% retracement level for the Sep’24 - Nov’24 downleg. 

In post-Tokyo trade, JGB futures closed stronger, +6 compared to settlement levels, after US tsy futures closed firmer.

• MNI INTERVIEW: Fed's Risk Management Cuts Not Enough - Revelio. The U.S. labour market will continue to soften, and the Federal Reserve's 50 basis points of interest rate easing so far this year will not be enough to shore up hiring, private data provider Revelio Labs' chief economist Lisa Simon told MNI.
• MNI BRIEF: Japan Oct Sentiment Posts 6th Straight Rise. Japan's Economy Watchers sentiment index rose for a sixth consecutive month in October, prompting the government to upgrade its assessment from the previous month. The stronger data helped ease some Bank of Japan concerns that private consumption may lose momentum as households struggle with high living costs, though the survey does not directly measure consumption.
• All eyes will be on the 30-year yield today after yesterday’s heavy close (+3.6bps cheaper) following another lacklustre auction. (see chart)
• Today, the local calendar will see Money Supply and Machine Tool Orders.

Source: Bloomberg Finance LP