MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - WTI Trends Remain Bearish

Price Signal Summary – Breach of Support Highlights Bearish Oil Theme

• A reversal higher in S&P E-Minis on Apr 9 highlights the start of a corrective cycle. The trend condition has been oversold following recent weakness and the move higher is allowing this set-up to unwind. Initial resistance to watch is 5479.72, the 20-day EMA. Eurostoxx 50 futures continue to trade above their recent lows. The latest bounce highlights a corrective cycle and this is allowing an unwinding of the recent oversold trend condition. Resistance levels to watch are 4989.86, the 20-day EMA.
• The trend outlook in EURUSD remains bullish and the pair continues to trade closer to its recent highs. The recent breach of 1.1144, the Apr 3 high and a bull trigger, confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The trend condition in USDJPY remains bearish and this week’s fresh cycle lows reinforce this condition. The extension down confirms a resumption of the downtrend and maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. USDCAD is unchanged and remains within range of recent lows. A bearish theme remains intact for now. Recent fresh trend lows marked a resumption of the downtrend and has signalled scope for a continuation near-term.
• Wednesday’s extension in Gold reinforces current bullish conditions. The yellow metal has traded to another fresh all-time high and confirmed a resumption of the primary uptrend. Note too that moving average studies are unchanged. A bearish theme in WTI futures remains intact and the rally on Apr 9 is - for now - considered corrective. The move higher is allowing an oversold trend condition to unwind. Recent weakness has resulted in the breach of a number of important support levels, reinforcing a bearish threat.   
• Bund futures are trading closer to their recent highs. The trend condition is unchanged, a bull cycle remains in play and the latest pullback is considered corrective. A fresh short-term cycle high on Apr 7 reinforces a bullish theme. A sharp sell-off in Gilt futures last week continues to highlight a bearish threat and recent short-term gains are considered corrective - for now. The contract has recently breached 90.55, the Mar 27 low. Clearance of this level confirms a full reversal of the Mar 27 - Apr 7 rally.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE    

EURUSD TECHS: Trend Outlook Remains Bullish           

• RES 4: 1.1608 High Nov 9 2021
• RES 3: 1.1555 1.382 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - 27 price swing
• RES 2: 1.1495 High Feb 10 2022 
• RES 1: 1.1473 High Apr 11 
• PRICE: 1.1365 @ 06:04 BST Apr 17
• SUP 1: 1.1144 High Apr 3 and a recent breakout level     
• SUP 2: 1.1039 20-day EMA     
• SUP 3: 1.0831 50-day EMA and a short-term pivot level     
• SUP 4: 1.0733 Low Mar 27 and a key short-term support

The trend outlook in EURUSD remains bullish and the pair continues to trade closer to its recent highs. The recent breach of 1.1144, the Apr 3 high and a bull trigger, confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on 1.1555 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial support lies at the 1.1144 breakout level. Key support is unchanged at the 20-day EMA, at 1.1039.     

GBPUSD TECHS: Bull Cycle Remains In Play

• RES 4: 1.3434 High Sep 26 ‘24 and a key resistance  
• RES 3: 1.3380 3.0% Upper Bollinger Band 
• RES 2: 1.3305 High Oct 2 ‘24 
• RES 1: 1.3292 High Apr 16
• PRICE: 1.3220 @ 06:16 BST Apr 17
• SUP 1: 1.2989 20-day EMA 
• SUP 2: 1.2855 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.2709 Low Apr 7 and a bear trigger 1.2654 
• SUP 4: 1.2559 Low Feb 28 

GBPUSD maintains a bullish tone and this week’s gains reinforce current conditions. Price has breached key resistance at 1.3207, the Apr 3 high and a bull trigger. This confirms the end of the Apr 4 - 7 correction, and highlights a resumption of the medium-term uptrend. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on 1.3305 next, the Oct 2 ‘24 high. Support to watch is 1.2989, the 20-day EMA.    

EURGBP TECHS: Monitoring Support      

• RES 4: 0.8800 Round number resistance      
• RES 3: 0.8781 2.236 proj of the Mar 3 - 11 - 28 price swing
• RES 2: 0.8768 High Nov 20 ‘23
• RES 1: 0.8617/0.8738 Intraday high / High Apr 11 
• PRICE: 0.8596 @ 06:34 BST Apr 17 
• SUP 1: 0.8520/0.8498 Low Apr 10 / 20-day EMA 
• SUP 2: 0.8425 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 0.8316 Low Mar 28 and a key near-term support   
• SUP 4: 0.8299 Low Mar 5

The latest pullback in EURGBP appears corrective - for now. The retracement is allowing a recent overbought trend condition to unwind. Support to watch lies at 0.8498, the 20-day EMA. Below this level, support at the 50-day EMA is at 0.8425. The area between these two averages represents a key support zone. For bulls, a resumption of gains would open 0.8781, a Fibonacci projection point.

USDJPY TECHS: Fresh Trend Low   

• RES 4: 151.30 High Mar 3   
• RES 3: 148.82/151.21 50-day EMA / High Mar 28 and reversal trigger 
• RES 2: 146.47 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 143.59/144.64 High Apr 15 / 11   
• PRICE: 142.72 @ 07:01 BST Apr 17
• SUP 1: 141.62 Intraday low      
• SUP 2: 141.00 1.236 proj of the Feb 12 - Mar 11 - 28 price swing
• SUP 3: 140.32 Low Sep 17 ‘24
• SUP 4: 139.79 1.382 proj of the Feb 12 - Mar 11 - 28 price swing

The trend condition in USDJPY remains bearish and this week’s fresh cycle lows reinforce this condition. The extension down confirms a resumption of the downtrend and maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Note too that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position highlighting a dominant downtrend. Sights are on 141.00 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance to watch is the 20-day EMA, at 146.47.

EURJPY TECHS: Bullish Trend Signals   

• RES 4: 165.43 High Nov 8        
• RES 3: 164.90 High Dec 30 ‘24 and a key medium-term resistance   
• RES 2: 164.55 High Jan 7
• RES 1: 163.55/164.19 High Apr 14 / High Mar 18 and the bull trigger 
• PRICE: 162.11 @ 07:12 GMT Apr 17 
• SUP 1: 161.08/158.30 50-day EMA / Low Apr 7 and key support   
• SUP 2: 157.02 76.4% retracement of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 bull cycle  
• SUP 3: 155.60 Low Low Mar 4  
• SUP 4: 154.80 Low Low Feb 28  

The recent pullback in EURJPY appears corrective and trend conditions remain bullish. Key short-term support has been defined at 158.30, the low on Apr 7. A break of this level is required to signal scope for a deeper retracement. This would open 157.02, a Fibonacci retracement. For bulls, a resumption of gains would expose 164.19, the Mar 18 high and the bull trigger. Clearance of this hurdle would resume the uptrend.     

AUDUSD TECHS: Approaching Key Resistance  

• RES 4: 0.6471 High Dec 9 ‘24  
• RES 3: 0.6428 50.0% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Apr 9 bear leg 
• RES 2: 0.6409 High Dec 9 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 0.6392 High Apr 15
• PRICE: 0.6339 @ 08:06 BST Apr 17 
• SUP 1: 0.6255 20-day EMA  
• SUP 2: 0.6116/0.5915 Low 10 / Low Apr 9 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 3: 0.5830 2.000 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
• SUP 4: 0.5729 2.236 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing

AUDUSD is holding on to the bulk of its recent gains and maintains a S/T bullish tone. The pair has breached the 50-day EMA. The break of this EMA strengthens the reversal and signals scope for a continuation higher. 0.6389, the Apr 3 high, has been pierced. A clear break would expose 0.6409, the Dec 9 high ‘24. A resumption of weakness would refocus attention on 0.5915, the Apr 9 low and bear trigger. First support lies at 0.6255, the 20-day EMA.         

USDCAD TECHS: Trend Needle Points South

• RES 4: 1.4452/4543 High Mar 13 / 4 and a bull trigger
• RES 3: 1.4415 High Apr 1 
• RES 2: 1.4222 50-day EMA 
• RES 1: 1.4028/4151 Low Apr 3 / Low Feb 14 
• PRICE: 1.3881 @ 08:08 BST Apr 17
• SUP 1: 1.3829/22 Low Apr 14 / Low Nov 6 ‘24
• SUP 2: 1.3744 76.4% retracement of Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bull run
• SUP 3: 1.3696 Low Oct 10 2024
• SUP 4: 1.3643 Low Oct 9 ‘24 

USDCAD is unchanged and remains within range of recent lows. A bearish theme remains intact for now. Recent fresh trend lows marked a resumption of the downtrend and has signalled scope for a continuation near-term. Potential is seen for a move towards 1.3744, a Fibonacci retracement. Moving average studies are in a bear -mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. First resistance to watch is 1.4028, the Apr 3 low.  

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M5) Bullish Trend Structure                    

• RES 4: 133.00 round number resistance               
• RES 3: 132.56 High Feb 28 and a key resistance       
• RES 2: 132.03 High Apr 7 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 131.57 High Apr 15                     
• PRICE: 131.13 @ 05:43 BST Apr 17
• SUP 1: 129.97/128.60 20-day EMA / Low Apr 9         
• SUP 2: 128.47 Low Mar 28            
• SUP 3: 127.74 Low Mar 25 and a key short-term support 
• SUP 4: 127.20 Low Mar 17   

Bund futures are trading closer to their recent highs. The trend condition is unchanged, a bull cycle remains in play and the latest pullback is considered corrective. A fresh short-term cycle high on Apr 7 reinforces a bullish theme. The contract has recently cleared 131.14, 76.4% of the Feb 28 - Mar 11 bear leg. This opens 132.56 next, the Feb 28 high. Initial firm support lies at 128.60, the Apr 9 low. A break below this level would alter the picture.                                       

BOBL TECHS: (M5) Trading Above Support            

• RES 4: 120.20 High Dec 12 ‘24 (cont)           
• RES 3: 120.000 Psychological round number          
• RES 2: 119.960 High Apr 7 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 119.470 High Apr 11                                    
• PRICE: 119.260 @ 05:55 BST Apr 17  
• SUP 1: 118.493/117.680 20-day EMA / Low Apr 9 / 1       
• SUP 2: 117.410 Low Mar 27   
• SUP 3: 117.126 76.4% retracement of the Mar 6 - Apr 7 bull cycle  
• SUP 4: 117.080 Low Mar 25 and a key short-term support    

Bobl futures are unchanged and continue to trade below their recent highs. The latest move down appears corrective. The early April rally resulted in a break of key resistance at 119.040, the Feb 28 high. This strengthens bullish conditions and signals scope for a continuation. The focus is on the 120.000 handle next. The contract has been in overbought territory, a move down has allowed this to unwind. Initial firm support lies at 117.680, the Apr 9 low.                 

SCHATZ TECHS: (M5) Trend Needle Points North                               

• RES 4: 107.812 0.618 proj of the Mar 6 - Apr 7 - 9 price swing     
• RES 3: 107.800 Round number resistance    
• RES 2: 107.775 High Apr 7 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 107.680 High Apr 9                   
• PRICE: 107.475 @ 06:06 BST Apr 17     
• SUP 1: 107.220/106.965 20-day EMA / Low Apr 9 and key support  
• SUP 2: 106.830 Low Mar 27    
• SUP 3: 106.728 76.4% retracement of the Mar 6 - Apr 7 bull cycle       
• SUP 4: 106.630 Low Mar 18     

Schatz futures are unchanged and the contract remains below the Apr 7 high. For now, the recent pullback appears corrective and has allowed an overbought condition to unwind. The trend condition is bullish - price has recently traded through a key resistance at 107.120, the Mar 4 high. The break highlights a stronger bull cycle and signals scope for a climb towards 107.800. Key support to watch lies at 106.965, the Apr 9 low.                                                      

GILT TECHS: (M5) Corrective Gains                   

• RES 4: 94.50 High Apr 7 and key resistance   
• RES 3: 93.00/44 Round number resistance / 61.8% of Apr 7-9 sell-off        
• RES 2: 92.63 High Apr 8  
• RES 1: 92.32 High Apr 16                          
• PRICE: 91.95 @ Close Apr 16
• SUP 1: 91.43 Low Apr 15                                      
• SUP 2: 90.47/89.99 Low Apr 11 / 9  
• SUP 3: 89.68 Low Jan 15 (cont)     
• SUP 4: 88.96 Low Jan 13 and a key support (con) 

A sharp sell-off in Gilt futures last week continues to highlight a bearish threat and recent short-term gains are considered corrective - for now. The contract has recently breached 90.55, the Mar 27 low. Clearance of this level confirms a full reversal of the Mar 27 - Apr 7 rally. Sights are on the 90.00 handle next, briefly pierced on Apr 9. A clear break of it would open key support at 88.96, the Jan 13 low (cont). Initial resistance is at 92.32, the Apr 16 high.                                

BTP TECHS: (M5) Uptrend Remains Intact                                  

• RES 4: 120.65 1.382 proj of the MAr 14 - Apr 4 - 9 price swing      
• RES 3: 120.39 High Feb 28    
• RES 2: 120.12 High High Mar 4 
• RES 1: 119.47 High Apr 15              
• PRICE: 119.10 @ Close Apr 16  
• SUP 1: 118.11 20-day EMA       
• SUP 2: 117.28 Low Apr 10     
• SUP 3: 116.06 Low Apr 9  
• SUP 4: 115.75 Low Apr 14 and a bear trigger     

BTP futures rallied sharply higher on Monday. The rally resulted in a break of resistance at 119.07, the Apr 4 high. The breach confirms the end of recent Apr 4 - 9 correction and cancels a recent bearish threat. Attention is on 119.29, 76.4% of the Feb 28 - Mar 14 bear leg (pierced). A clear break of this level would open 120.12, the Mar 4 high. Initial support to watch lies at 118.11, the 20-day EMA.                 

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M5) Corrective Phase Still In Play       

• RES 4: 5270.00 High Apr 1  
• RES 3: 5123.04 50-day EMA 
• RES 2: 5001.00 High Apr 9
• RES 1: 4989.86 20-day EMA              
• PRICE: 4893.00 @ 06:12 BST Apr 17 
• SUP 1: 4664.00 Low Apr 10                      
• SUP 2: 4575.45 76.4% retracement of the Apr 7 - 9 bounce
• SUP 3: 4444.00 Low Apr 7 and the bear trigger         
• SUP 4: 4336.00 Low Nov 28 ‘23 (cont)     

Eurostoxx 50 futures continue to trade above their recent lows. The latest bounce highlights a corrective cycle and this is allowing an unwinding of the recent oversold trend condition. Resistance levels to watch are 4989.86, the 20-day EMA, and 5123.04, the 50-day EMA. Key support and the bear trigger has been defined at 4444.00, the Apr 7 low. A break of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend.             

E-MINI S&P: (M5) Resistance Still Intact                

• RES 4: 5906.75 High Mar 6   
• RES 3: 5837.25 High Mar 25 and the reversal trigger        
• RES 2: 5686.31 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 5479.72 20-day EMA                             
• PRICE: 5351.50 @ 07:49 BST Apr 17   
• SUP 1: 5098.16 61.8% retracement of the Apr 7 - 10 bounce                      
• SUP 2: 4832.00 Low Apr 7 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 3: 4760.88 1.618 proj of the Feb 19 - Mar 13 - 25 price swing
• SUP 4: 4663.75 1.764 proj of the Feb 19 - Mar 13 - 25 price swing  

A reversal higher in S&P E-Minis on Apr 9 highlights the start of a corrective cycle. The trend condition has been oversold following recent weakness and the move higher is allowing this set-up to unwind. Initial resistance to watch is 5479.72, the 20-day EMA. Resistance at the 50-day EMA is at 5686.31. On the downside, key support and the bear trigger has been defined at 4832.00, the Apr 7 low. A break of this level would resume the M/T downtrend.         

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (M5) Correction Extends     

• RES 4: $77.75 - High Jan 20  
• RES 3: $76.26 - High Feb 20
• RES 2: $70.18/75.47 - 50-day EMA / High Apr 2 and a bull trigger
• RES 1: $67.95 - Low Mar 5            
• PRICE: $66.47 @ 07:08 BST Apr 17  
• SUP 1: $62.00/58.40 - Low Apr 10 / 9    
• SUP 2: $58.85 - 2.000 proj of the Feb 20 - Mar 5 - Apr 2 price swing
• SUP 3: $56.89 - 2.236 proj of the Feb 20 - Mar 5 - Apr 2 price swing
• SUP 4: $55.00 - Round number support

Brent futures continue to trade above the Apr 9 low and maintain a firmer short-term tone. For now, the latest bounce is considered corrective and this is allowing a recent oversold condition to unwind. The primary trend direction remains down and a resumption of weakness would open $56.89, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, initial firm resistance to watch is seen at $67.95, the Mar 5 low. Resistance at the 50-day EMA, is at $70.18.       

WTI TECHS: (M5) Gains Considered Corrective                             

• RES 4: $75.51 - High Jan 15 and a key resistance   
• RES 3: $72.56 - High Feb 20
• RES 2: $66.47/71.76 - 50-day EMA / High Apr 2 and key resistance
• RES 1: $64.49 Low Mar 5 low and a recent breakout level.  
• PRICE: $62.32 @ 07:46 BST Apr 17 
• SUP 1: $55.12 - Low Apr 9
• SUP 2: $53.72 - 2.236 proj of the Feb 20 - Mar 5 - Apr 2 price swing
• SUP 3: $52.54 - 2.382 proj of the Jan 15 - Feb 4 - 11 price swing
• SUP 4: $50.00 - Psychological round number  

A bearish theme in WTI futures remains intact and the rally on Apr 9 is - for now - considered corrective. The move higher is allowing an oversold trend condition to unwind. Recent weakness has resulted in the breach of a number of important support levels, reinforcing a bearish threat. A resumption of the bear cycle would open $53.72, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance is seen at $64.49, the Mar 5 low and a recent breakout level.                

GOLD TECHS: Fresh Cycle High                         

• RES 4: $3400.0 - Round number resistance 
• RES 3: $3391.6 - 1.500 proj of the Dec 19 - Feb 24 - Feb 28 swing
• RES 2: $3370.9 - 1.236 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - Apr 7 price swing 
• RES 1: $3357.8 - Intraday high       
• PRICE: $3326.5 @ 07:28 BST Apr 17 
• SUP 1: $3230.0 - Low Apr 16  
• SUP 2: $3167.9/3116.0 - High Apr 3 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: $3004.8/2956.7 - 50-day EMA / Low Apr 7
• SUP 4: $2880.3 - Low Mar 10 

Wednesday’s extension in Gold reinforces current bullish conditions. The yellow metal has traded to another fresh all-time high and confirmed a resumption of the primary uptrend. Note too that moving average studies are unchanged, they remain in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend. The next objective is $3370.9, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support lies at 3116.0, the 20-day EMA.                         

SILVER TECHS: Maintains A Bullish Tone         

• RES 4: $36.000 - Round number resistance 
• RES 3: $34.903 - High Oct 23 ‘24 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: $34.590 - High Mar 28  
• RES 1: $33.117 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar 28 - Apr 7 bear leg                                       
• PRICE: $32.391 @ 08:15 BST Apr 17
• SUP 1: $30.577/28.351 - Low Apr 10 / 7 and the bear trigger                
• SUP 2: $27.686 - Low Sep 6 ‘24 
• SUP 3: $27.180 - Low Aug 14 ‘24   
• SUP 4: $26.451 - Low Aug 8 ‘24 and a key support   

Silver traded higher Wednesday. The latest recovery undermines a bearish theme. Price has traded through an important resistance around the 50-day EMA - at $32.239. The break higher signals scope for an extension towards $33.117, a Fibonacci retracement. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bullish condition. On the downside, initial firm support to watch lies at $30.577, the Apr 10 low.