MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - WTI Returning Lower

Price Signal Summary – WTI Returning Lower

• The trend condition in S&P E-Minis is unchanged and the direction remains up. Fresh cycle highs this week confirm a continuation of the uptrend and maintain the positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The trend condition in Eurostoxx 50 futures is unchanged, the direction remains up and the recent consolidation appears to be a flag formation - a bullish continuation pattern.
• The short-term condition in GBPUSD remains bearish and Thursday’s sell-off has strengthened this condition. The pair has breached a key short-term support at 1.3333, the Sep 3 low. Recent weakness in EURGBP appears corrective and trend signals remain bullish. However, the cross has pierced support around the 50-day EMA, at 0.8674. Trend signals in AUDUSD remain bullish and short-term weakness is considered corrective. The pair has pierced support at the 50-day EMA, currently at 0.6564.
• A bull cycle in Gold remains in play and this week’s breach of the $4000 handle reinforces the uptrend. The move higher maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. A bearish theme in WTI futures remains intact and short-term gains are considered corrective. Recent weakness resulted in a move through key support and a bear trigger at $60.85, the Aug 13 low.
• Bund futures have pulled back from Wednesday’s high. This week’s gains have strengthened a short-term bullish theme. Resistance at 128.84, the 61.8% retracement of the Sep 10 - 25 bear leg, has been breached. Gilt futures traded lower Thursday but for now the contract remains above Tuesday’s intraday low of 90.34. Key near-term support lies at 90.26, the Sep 26 low.

[GLOBAL] MNI Tech Trend Monitor - Highlighting Key Longer-Term Trends:
MNI Tech Trend Monitor: https://emedia.marketnews.com/marketnewsintl/MNITechTrendMonitor.pdf

We introduce the MNI Tech Trend Monitor - This document highlights a selection of key longer-term trends that we have identified in markets that could be reaching inflection points, trend reversals/extensions or technically significant levels.

Covering:

• UK Gilt 10y Yield
• UK Gilt 30y Yield
• ICE USD Index
• Europe Banking Stock Index (SX7E)

FOREIGN EXCHANGE    

EURUSD TECHS: Bear Leg Extends   

• RES 4: 1.1919 High Sep 17 and a bull trigger
• RES 3: 1.1820 High Sep 23
• RES 2: 1.1779 High Oct 1 and a key short-term resistance  
• RES 1: 1.1699 20-day EMA  
• PRICE: 1.1575 @ 06:13 BST Oct 10
• SUP 1: 1.1542 Low Oct 9
• SUP 2: 1.1516 76.4% retracement of the Aug 1 - Sep 17 bull leg 
• SUP 3: 1.1392 Low Aug 1 and bear trigger 
• SUP 4: 1.1313 Low May 30

A short-term corrective bear cycle in EURUSD remains intact and this week’s move lower reinforces current conditions. The 50-day EMA and support at 1.1646, the Sep 25 low, have been breached. Sights are on 1.1516, a Fibonacci retracement. Note that MA studies are in a bull-mode position. This continues to highlight a dominant medium-term uptrend. Initial firm resistance  is 1.1779, the Oct 1 high. A break of this level would signal a bull reversal.        

GBPUSD TECHS: Breaches Support     

• RES 4: 1.3789 High Jul 1 and key resistance    
• RES 3: 1.3726 High Sep 17 
• RES 2: 1.3661 High Sep 18
• RES 1: 1.3452/3537 20-day EMA / High Sep 23 and a pivot level 
• PRICE: 1.3312 @ 06:30 BST Oct 10
• SUP 1: 1.3280 76.4% retracement of the Aug 1 - Sep 17 bull leg  
• SUP 2: 1.3254 Low Aug 4
• SUP 3: 1.3142 Low Aug 1 and a key support
• SUP 4: 1.3041 Low Apr 14           

The short-term condition in GBPUSD remains bearish and Thursday’s sell-off has strengthened this condition. The pair has breached a key short-term support at 1.3333, the Sep 3 low. The break signals scope for a deeper retracement. Clearance of 1.3280, a Fibonacci retracement, would open key support at 1.3142, the Aug 1 low. Initial resistance to watch is 1.3452, the 20-day EMA.            

EURGBP TECHS: Monitoring Support Around The 50-Day EMA           

• RES 4: 0.8835 High May 3 2023  
• RES 3: 0.8800 Round number resistance 
• RES 2: 0.8769 High Jul 28 and the bull trigger 
• RES 1: 0.8704/8751 High Oct 7 / High Sep 25  
• PRICE: 0.8695 @ 06:38 BST Oct 10
• SUP 1: 0.8674/8656 50-day EMA / Low Aug 10
• SUP 2: 0.8633 Low Sep 15 
• SUP 3: 0.8597 Low ASug 14 and key support 
• SUP 4: 0.8562 50.0% retracement May 29 - Jul 28 upleg

Recent weakness in EURGBP appears corrective and trend signals remain bullish. However, the cross has pierced support around the 50-day EMA, at 0.8674. A clear breach of this EMA would signal scope for a deeper retracement and open 0.8633, the Sep 15 low. Key trend support lies at  0.8597, the Aug 14 low. On the upside, key resistance and the bull trigger is 0.8769, the Jul 28 high. 

USDJPY TECHS: Bullish Outlook           

• RES 4: 154.80 High Feb 12 
• RES 3: 154.39 76.4% retracement of the Jan 10 - Apr 22 bear leg
• RES 2: 153.82 1.618 proj of the Sep 17 - 26 - Oct 1 price swing    
• RES 1: 153.27 Intraday high 
• PRICE: 152.85 @ 07:01 BST Oct 10
• SUP 1: 150.92 High Sep 26  
• SUP 2: 149.96 High    
• SUP 3: 149.26 20-day EMA  
• SUP 4: 148.23 50-day EMA

Bullish trend conditions in USDJPY remain intact and this week’s gains reinforce current trend conditions. The pair is holding on to its latest gains. Price has breached key medium-term resistance at 150.92, the Aug 1 high. The clear break of it confirms a resumption of the bull leg that started Apr 22. Sights are on 154.39, a Fibonacci retracement point. Initial support to watch lies at 150.92, the Aug 1 high.  

EURJPY TECHS: Bull Cycle Remains Intact 

• RES 4: 180.00 Psychological round number  
• RES 3: 179.71 Top of a bull channel drawn from the Feb 28 low
• RES 2: 178.94 1.236 proj of the Jul 31 - Sep 29 - Oct 2 price swing
• RES 1: 178.00 Round number resistance  
• PRICE: 176.86 @ 07:13 BST Oct 10
• SUP 1: 175.79/175.13 Low Oct 7 / High Sep 29 
• SUP 2: 174.62 20-day EMA   
• SUP 3: 173.24 High Oct 3 and a gap low on the daily chart    
• SUP 4: 172.27 Low Oct 2 and a key medium-term support  

The trend set-up in EURJPY is bullish and fresh cycle highs this week strengthen current conditions. The cross has cleared resistance at 175.13, the Sep 29 high, to confirm a resumption of the primary uptrend. Note that the move higher this week also marks an acceleration of the bull cycle. Sights are on the 178.00 handle next. A break of this level would open 178.94, a Fibonacci projection. Key S/T support lies at 172.27, the Oct 2 low.  

AUDUSD TECHS: Monitoring Support   

• RES 4: 0.6763 1.382 proj of the Jun 23 - Jul 24 - Aug 21 price swing
• RES 3: 0.6726 1.236 proj of the Jun 23 - Jul 24 - Aug 21 price swing
• RES 2: 0.6660/6707 High Sep 18 / 17 and key resistance
• RES 1: 0.6629 High Sep 30 & Oct 01
• PRICE: 0.6553 @ 08.04 BST Oct 10
• SUP 1: 0.6527/21 61.8% of the Aug 21 - Sep 17 bull leg / Low Sep 26 
• SUP 2: 0.6484 76.4% retracement of the Aug 21 - Sep 17 bull leg
• SUP 3: 0.6463/6415 Low Aug 27 / Low Aug 21 / 22 and a bear trigger 
• SUP 4: 0.6373 Low Jun 23

Trend signals in AUDUSD remain bullish and short-term weakness is considered corrective. The pair has pierced support at the 50-day EMA, currently at 0.6564. A clear break of this average would signal scope for a deeper retracement and expose 0.6527 once again, a Fibonacci retracement. For bulls, a reversal higher would refocus attention on 0.6707, the Sep 17 high. Initial resistance to watch is 0.6629, the Sep 30 and Oct 1 high.    

USDCAD TECHS: Fresh Trend High  

• RES 4: 1.4167 50.0% retracement of the Feb 3 - Jun 16 bear leg
• RES 3: 1.4111/20 High Apr 10 / 3.0% Upper Bollinger Band
• RES 2: 1.4068 Bull channel top drawn from the Jul 23 low 
• RES 1: 1.4034 High Oct 9
• PRICE: 1.4026 @ 08:17 BST Oct 10
• SUP 1: 1.3907/3850 20- and 50-day EMA values  
• SUP 2: 1.3791 Bull channel base drawn from the Jul 23 low 
• SUP 3: 1.3727 Low Aug 29 and a bear trigger 
• SUP 4: 1.3689 Low Jul 28 

Yesterday’s rally in USDCAD strengthens the current bull cycle. The move higher confirmed a recent bull flag on the daily chart and a resumption of the current uptrend. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant bull cycle. Sights are on 1.4111 next, the Apr 10 high, and further out scope is seen for an extension towards 1.4167, a Fibonacci retracement. First key support is at 1.3907, the 50-day EMA.    

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (Z5) Short-Term Bull Theme Intact             

• RES 4: 129.50 High Aug 5  
• RES 3: 129.58 61.8% retracement of the Jun 13 - Sep 3 bear leg     
• RES 2: 129.44 High Sep 10 and key short-term resistance
• RES 1: 129.07 76.4% retracement of the Sep 10 - 25 bear leg    
• PRICE: 128.75 @ 05:52 BST Oct 10
• SUP 1: 128.57 20-day EMA       
• SUP 2: 128.25 Low Oct 7 
• SUP 3: 127.88 Low Sep 25 
• SUP 4: 127.61 Low Sep 3 and the bear trigger 

Bund futures have pulled back from Wednesday’s high. This week’s gains have strengthened a short-term bullish theme. Resistance at 128.84, the 61.8% retracement of the Sep 10 - 25 bear leg, has been breached and potential is seen for a climb towards the key resistance at 129.44, the Sep 10 high. Initial resistance to watch is 129.07, the 76.4% retracement. The Oct 7 low of 128.25 has been defined as a key short-term support.             

BOBL TECHS: (Z5) Resistance Remains Exposed     

• RES 4: 118.400 High Sep 8 / 10 and  key resistance       
• RES 3: 118.340 High Sep 11   
• RES 2: 118.181 76.4% retracement of the Sep 8 - 25 bear leg    
• RES 1: 118.110 High Oct 8   
• PRICE: 117.940 @ 06:02 BST Oct 10
• SUP 1: 117.865 20-day EMA  
• SUP 2: 117.710 Low Oct 6  
• SUP 3: 117.630 Low Oct 1   
• SUP 4: 117.470 Low Sep 25 and a key support  

A strong rally in Bobl futures on Wednesday resulted in a brief print above a key S/T resistance at 118.09, the Sep 7 high. A clear break of this level would undermine a recent bearish theme and instead signal scope for a stronger recovery. This would initially open 118.181, a Fibonacci retracement point but also expose the next key resistance at 118.400, the Sep 8 high. Initial firm support lies at 117.710, the Oct 6 low. A break of it would be bearish.       

SCHATZ TECHS: (Z5) Holding On To The Bulk Of Its Recent Gains    

• RES 4: 107.240 High Aug 4 
• RES 3: 107.225 High Aug 27 and the bull trigger 
• RES 2: 107.145/190 High Sep 11 / High Sep 5 and 8
• RES 1: 107.070 High Oct 8 
• PRICE: 107.040 @ 06:06 BST Oct 10
• SUP 1: 106.965/920 Low Oct 6 / Low Sep 25 and the bear trigger   
• SUP 2: 106.907 1.618 proj of the the Aug 27 - Sep 2 - 8 price swing  
• SUP 3: 106.900 Round number support
• SUP 4: 106.881 1.764 proj of the the Aug 27 - Sep 2 - 8 price swing

Schatz futures traded sharply higher Wednesday and the contract is holding on to the bulk of its gains. A key short-term resistance at 107.050, the Aug 25 and Sep 2 low plus a recent high, has been pierced. A clear break of this hurdle would undermine a bearish theme and instead signal scope for a stronger recovery. This would open the 107.000 handle initially. Key support and the bear trigger has been defined at 106.920, the Sep 25 low.        

GILT TECHS: (Z5) Bearish Theme        

• RES 4: 92.06 High Aug 14
• RES 3: 92.00 Round number resistance     
• RES 2: 91.28/82 High Sep 24 / 11
• RES 1: 91.08 High Oct 1  
• PRICE: 90.46  @ Close Oct 9
• SUP 1: 90.26/89.94 Low Sep 26 / 76.4% of the Sep 3 - 11 correction     
• SUP 2: 90.31/89.36 Low Sep 4 / 3
• SUP 3: 89.36 Low Sep 3  
• SUP 4: 89.22 1.618 proj of the Aug 21 - 27 - 28 price swing  

Gilt futures traded lower Thursday but for now the contract remains above Tuesday’s intraday low of 90.34. Key near-term support lies at 90.26, the Sep 26 low. A breach of this level would strengthen a bearish theme and open 89.94, a Fibonacci retracement point. Note that on the continuation chart, moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant medium-term downtrend. First resistance is 91.08, the Oct 1 high.     

BTP TECHS: (Z5) Range Parameters Intact For Now     

• RES 4: 122.56 0.764 proj of the Apr 9 - May 8 - 14 price swing (cont)
• RES 3: 121.88 0.618 proj of the Apr 9 - May 8 - 14 price swing (cont) 
• RES 2: 121.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 120.43/120.74 High Oct 8 & 9 / High Aug 5 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 120.08 @ Close Oct 9
• SUP 1: 119.07/118.36 Low Sep 25 / 3 and key support         
• SUP 2: 118.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 117.70 2.236 proj of the Aug 5 - 12 - 14 price swing  
• SUP 4: 117.36 2.500 proj of the Aug 5 - 12 - 14 price swing 

BTP futures futures rallied Wednesday reinforcing a bullish outlook. However, for now the contract continues to trade in a range. Key short-term resistance and the bull trigger is 120.74, the Aug 5 high. A break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the trend. Initial support to watch lies at 119.07, the Sep 25 low. Clearance of this level would allow for a deeper short-term retracement towards key support at 118.36, the Sep 3 low.                         

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (Z5) Bull Flag   

• RES 4: 5777.41 1.382 proj of the Aug 1 - 22 - Sep 2 price swing
• RES 3: 5727.18 1.236 proj of the Aug 1 - 22 - Sep 2 price swing  
• RES 2: 5700.00 Round number resistance 
• RES 1: 5689.00 High Oct 2       
• PRICE: 5641.00 @ 06:35 BST Oct 10
• SUP 1: 5613.00 Low Oct 8  
• SUP 2: 5550.36 20-day EMA  
• SUP 3: 5471.37 50-day EMA   
• SUP 4: 5423.00 Low Sep 25    

The trend condition in Eurostoxx 50 futures is unchanged, the direction remains up and the recent consolidation appears to be a flag formation - a bullish continuation pattern. The recent breach of key resistance at 5525.00, the Aug 22 high, confirmed a resumption of the uptrend. Sights are on the 5700.00 handle next, with potential for a test of 5727.18 further out, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support lies at 5550.36, the 20-day EMA.        

E-MINI S&P: (Z5) Fresh Cycle High    

• RES 4: 6850.87 1.618 proj of the Aug 1 - 15 - 20 price swing
• RES 3: 6831.38 2.500 proj of the Aug 20 - 28 - Sep 2 price swing
• RES 2: 6819.25 1.500 proj of the Aug 1 - 15 - 20 price swing
• RES 1: 6812.29 2.382 proj of the Aug 20 - 28 - Sep 2 price swing
• PRICE: 6791.50 @ 07:20 BST Oct 10
• SUP 1: 6716.75 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 6680.00 Low Oct 1 
• SUP 3: 6624.25 Low Sep 25 
• SUP 4: 6598.72 50-day EMA

The trend condition in S&P E-Minis is unchanged and the direction remains up. Fresh cycle highs this week confirm a continuation of the uptrend and maintain the positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The contract is holding on to its latest gains and sights are on 6812.29 and 6819.25, Fibonacci projection points. Initial support to watch is at the 20-day EMA, at 6716.75. A clear break of it would signal scope for a pullback.    

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (Z5) Bear Threat Remains Present        

• RES 4: $78.63 - 2.618 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 3: $76.82 - 2.382 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 2: $75.43 - High Jun 23 and a bull trigger 
• RES 1: $69.87/71.20 - High Sep 26 / High Jul 30 and key resistance 
• PRICE: $66.25 @ 07:12 BST Oct 9
• SUP 1: $64.00 - Low Oct 2
• SUP 2: $60.85 - Low May 30 
• SUP 3: $58.50 - Low May 5
• SUP 4: $57.88 - Low Apr 9 and a key support   

A bearish threat in Brent futures remains present and recent short-term gains are considered corrective. Last week’s sell-off saw the contract breach a key support and the bear trigger at $64.20, the Jun 30 low. The break  strengthens a bearish theme and paves the way for an extension towards $60.85, the May 30 low. Initial firm resistance has been defined at $69.87, the Sep 26 high.      

WTI TECHS: (X5) Still Looking For Weakness  

• RES 4: $76.89 - 2.764 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 3: $74.79- 2.500 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 2: $73.39 - High Jun 23 and a bull trigger 
• RES 1: $66.42/68.43 - High Sep 29 and key resistance / High Jul 30   
• PRICE: $61.26 @ 07:17 BST Oct 10
• SUP 1: $60.40 - Low Oct 2 
• SUP 2: $57.50 - Low May 30
• SUP 3: $54.89 - Low May 5
• SUP 4: $54.10 - Low Apr 9 and a key support

A bearish theme in WTI futures remains intact and short-term gains are considered corrective. Recent weakness resulted in a move through key support and a bear trigger at $60.85, the Aug 13 low. Clearance of this level strengthens the bear threat and paves the way for an extension towards $57.50, the May 30 low. Initial firm resistance is at $66.42, the Sep 29 high. Clearance of this level would highlight a reversal.    

GOLD TECHS: Bullish But The Trend is Overbought       

• RES 4: $4113.5 - 2.618 proj of the May 15 - Jun 16 - 30 price swing
• RES 3: $4100.0 - Round number resistance  
• RES 2: $4074.5 - 2.500 proj of the May 15 - Jun 16 - 30 price swing
• RES 1: $4059.3 - High Oct 8               
• PRICE: $3971.8 @ 07:21 BST Oct 10
• SUP 1: $3884.1 - Low Oct 6  
• SUP 2: $3817.5 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: $3717.6 - Low Sep 24
• SUP 4: $3645.2 - 50-day EMA  

A bull cycle in Gold remains in play and this week’s breach of the $4000 handle reinforces the uptrend. The move higher maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Note that the trend is in overbought territory. A move down would be considered corrective and would allow the overbought set-up to unwind. For now, sights are on $4074.54, a Fibonacci projection. Support to watch is $3817.5, 20-day EMA.                  

SILVER TECHS: Pierces A Major Resistance Zone  

• RES 4: $52.000 - Roud number resistance  
• RES 3: $51.405 - 4.000 proj of the Sep 4 - 16 - 17 price swing
• RES 2: $51.235 - High Oct 9 and all-time high
• RES 1: $50.000 - Psychological round number     
• PRICE: $49.883 @ 07:57 BST Oct 10
• SUP 1: $45.789 - 20-day EMA 
• SUP 2: $42.643 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $41.135 - Low Sep 17  
• SUP 4: $40.404 - Low Sep 4

Trend signals in Silver remain bullish. The metal traded to a fresh cycle high yesterday, resulting in a print above a major resistance area around the $49.00-$50.00 region. This marks a high point from Jan ‘80 and Apr ‘11 and $50.00 represents a key psychological level. A clear break of this zone would strengthen a bull theme and pave the way for a climb towards $52.00 next. Support to watch lies at $45.789, the 20-day EMA.