MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - WTI Remains in Corrective Cycle

Price Signal Summary – WTI Remains in Corrective Cycle

• The S&P E-Minis contract is trading above Monday’s low. Key short-term support to watch lies at 5961.75, the Jan 16 low (pierced). For now, the recent sharp pullback appears corrective, however, a clear breach of 5961.75 would strengthen a bearish threat. A bull cycle in the Eurostoxx 50 futures contract remains intact and the move down from the Jan 24 high, appears to have been a correction. A deeper retracement would allow an overbought trend condition to unwind.                
• A bull cycle in GBPUSD remains in play and the pair is trading just below its recent highs. The 20-day EMA has been cleared and sights are on the 50-day EMA, at 1.2514 and an important resistance. The primary trend condition in USDJPY remains bullish. However, Monday’s move down highlights a stronger bear threat. The pair has breached the 50-day EMA and a trendline drawn from the Sep 16 ‘24 low. The medium-term bear trend condition in AUDUSD remains intact and the pair remains below the 50-day EMA, at 0.6319. The reversal lower from last week’s high suggests the possible end of the correction between Jan 13 - 24.  
• Gold continues to trade closer to its recent highs. A bull cycle is in play and the recent breach of resistance at $2726.2, the Dec 12 high, reinforces current conditions. Sights are on $2790.1, the Oct 31 all-time high. This week’s move down in WTI futures marks an extension of the current corrective cycle. The 20-day EMA has been breached and attention turns to support around the 50-day EMA, at $72.23. A clear break of the 50-day average would suggest scope for a deeper retracement.
• Bund futures continue to trade below their recent highs. The pullback appears corrective and a short-term bull cycle is in play. The Jan 15 rally highlighted a reversal signal - a bullish engulfing candle. The medium-term trend condition in Gilt futures remains bearish. However, recent gains continue to highlight a corrective phase and signal scope for a continuation higher near-term.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE    

EURUSD TECHS: Bull Cycle Remains In Play    

• RES 4: 1.0696 50.0% retracement of the Sep 25 - Jan 13 bear leg 
• RES 3: 1.0630 High Dec 06
• RES 2: 1.0574 38.2% retracement of the Sep 25 - Jan 13 bear leg
• RES 1: 1.0533 High Jan 27
• PRICE: 1.0422 @ 06:00 GMT Jan 30
• SUP 1: 1.0392/83 20-day EMA / Low Jan 29 
• SUP 2: 1.0260 Low Jan 15 
• SUP 3: 1.0178 Low Jan 13 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 4: 1.0138 1.764 proj of the Sep 25 - Oct 23 - Nov 5 price swing  

EURUSD continues to trade below its recent highs. The pair remains in a short-term bull cycle - a correction. Attention is on the 50-day EMA, at 1.0456. A clear break of the average would strengthen bullish conditions and signal scope for a continuation higher near-term. This would open 1.0574, a Fibonacci retracement point. Initial support to watch remains 1.0392, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of the EMA would signal a possible reversal.   

GBPUSD TECHS: Bullish Short-Term Outlook    

• RES 4: 1.2667 High Dec 19 
• RES 3: 1.2610 38.2% retracement of the Sep 26 ‘24 - Jan 13 swing    
• RES 2: 1.2576 High Jan 7
• RES 1: 1.2514/23 50-day EMA / High Jan 27 
• PRICE: 1.2440 @ 06:16 GMT Jan 30
• SUP 1: 1.2398/2294 20-day EMA / Low Jan 23  
• SUP 2: 1.2229 Low Jan 21
• SUP 3: 1.2100 Low Jan 10 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 4: 1.2087 0.764 proj of the Sep 26 - Nov 22 - Dec 6 price swing    

A bull cycle in GBPUSD remains in play and the pair is trading just below its recent highs. The 20-day EMA has been cleared and sights are on the 50-day EMA, at 1.2514 and an important resistance. Clearance of the average would highlight a stronger bull cycle. Medium-term trend signals are unchanged and  remain bearish. A reversal lower would refocus attention on 1.2100, the Jan 10. Clearance of this level resumes a downtrend.         

EURGBP TECHS: Support Lies At The 50-Day EMA              

• RES 4: 0.8545 High Aug 21  
• RES 3: 0.8530 76.4% retracement of the Aug 8 - Dec 19 downleg 
• RES 2: 0.8494 High Aug 26 ‘24
• RES 1: 0.8421/8474 High Jan 27 / 20 and the bull trigger 
• PRICE: 0.8373 @ 06:37 GMT Jan 30
• SUP 1: 0.8364 Low Jan 29
• SUP 2: 0.8357 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 0.8318 61.8% retracement of the Dec 19 - Jan 20 bull cycle  
• SUP 4: 0.8284 Low Jan 8

EURGBP is trading at this week’s lows and a corrective cycle remains in play. A bull cycle is intact and moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant short-term uptrend. The 20-day EMA has been breached and this exposes 0.8357, the 50-day EMA. A clear breach of this EMA would highlight a stronger reversal. The bull trigger is 0.8474, the Jan 20 high. Clearance of it would resume the uptrend. 

USDJPY TECHS: Short-Term Bear Threat  

• RES 4: 159.45 High Jul 12  
• RES 3: 159.26 0.618 proj of the Sep 16 - Nov 15 - Dec 3 price swing
• RES 2: 158.08/87 High Jan 15 / 10 and the bull trigger 
• RES 1: 156.75 High Jan 23       
• PRICE: 154.43 @ 06:52 GMT Jan 30
• SUP 1: 153.72/34 Low Jan 27 / Low Dec 18  
• SUP 2: 152.55 61.8% retracement of the Dec 3 - Jan 10 bull leg
• SUP 3: 151.81 Low Dec 12   
• SUP 4: 151.06 76.4% retracement of the Dec 3 - Jan 10 bull leg   

The primary trend condition in USDJPY remains bullish. However, Monday’s move down highlights a stronger bear threat. The pair has breached the 50-day EMA and a trendline drawn from the Sep 16 ‘24 low. A resumption of weakness would open 152.55, a Fibonacci retracement point. Initial firm resistance is at 156.75, the Jan 23 high. Clearance of this level would be a bullish development.        

EURJPY TECHS: Sell-Off Exposes Support                    

• RES 4: 165.43 High Nov 8 
• RES 3: 164.90 High Dec 30 and a key short-term resistance  
• RES 2: 164.55 High Jan 7
• RES 1: 162.70/164.08 High Jan 28 / 24
• PRICE: 160.77 @ 07:06 GMT Jan 30 
• SUP 1: 160.74/159.73 Intraday low / Low Jan 17 and key S/T support     
• SUP 2: 159.51 61.8% retracement of the Dec 3 - 30 bull cycle   
• SUP 3: 158.67 Low Dec 11
• SUP 4: 158.24 76.4% retracement of the Dec 3 - 30 bull cycle

EURJPY is trading lower today, extending the pullback from the Jan 24 high. The move down undermines a recent bull theme and signals scope for an extension lower near-term. The cross is trading below the 50-day EMA, at 162.19. The key short-term support to watch lies at 159.73, the Jan 17 low. A break of this level would strengthen a bearish threat. For bulls, a reversal higher would refocus attention on 164.08, the Jan 24 high.              

AUDUSD TECHS: Trend Signals Points South     

• RES 4: 0.6441 38.2% retracement of the Sep 30 - Jan 13 downleg  
• RES 3: 0.6429 High Dec 12               
• RES 2: 0.6384 High Dec 13  
• RES 1: 0.6319/31 50-day EMA / High Jan 24
• PRICE: 0.6221 @ 07:52 GMT Jan 30 
• SUP 1: 0.6209 Low Jan 21     
• SUP 3: 0.6165/31 Low Jan 17 / 13 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.6100 Round number support
• SUP 4: 0.6045 1.500 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing

The medium-term bear trend condition in AUDUSD remains intact and the pair remains below the 50-day EMA, at 0.6319. The reversal lower from last week’s high suggests the possible end of the correction between Jan 13 - 24. A continuation lower would open 0.6131, the Jan 13 low and the bear trigger. On the upside, a clear breach of the 50-day average is required to signal scope for a stronger recovery.  

USDCAD TECHS: Continues To Trade Inside A Range  

• RES 4: 1.4667 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 1.4564 3.500 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
• RES 2: 1.4539 3.382 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
• RES 1: 1.4516 High Jan 21  
• PRICE: 1.4418 @ 07:59 GMT Jan 30 
• SUP 1: 1.4265/61 50-day EMA / Low Jan 20
• SUP 2:1.4178 High Nov 26 ‘24  
• SUP 3: 1.4120 Low Dec 11 
• SUP 4: 1.4011 Low Dec 5

USDCAD is trading higher this week but remains inside a range. Recent price action highlights resistance at 1.4516, the Jan 21 low, and support at 1.4261, the Jan 20 low. Both levels represent important short-term directional triggers. The trend condition is bullish and a clear breach of 1.4516 would confirm a resumption of the bull cycle. For bears, a move through 1.4261 and 1.4265, the 50-day EMA, would instead highlight a possible reversal.      

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (H5) Monitoring Resistance At The 20-Day EMA     

• RES 4: 133.86 High Jan 2              
• RES 3: 133.03 50-day EMA 
• RES 2: 132.57 High Jan 6
• RES 1: 131.97/132.22 20-day EMA / High Jan 22                 
• PRICE: 131.40 @ 05:30 GMT Jan 30
• SUP 1: 131.00 Low Jan 16 / 24        
• SUP 2  131.00/130.28 Low Jan 16 / Low Jan 15 and the bear trigger           
• SUP 3: 130.44 Low Jul 5 ‘24 (cont)
• SUP 4: 130.23 Low Jul 3 ‘24 (cont)      

Bund futures continue to trade below their recent highs. The pullback appears corrective and a short-term bull cycle is in play. The Jan 15 rally highlighted a reversal signal - a bullish engulfing candle. It continues to suggest scope for a corrective phase that is allowing an oversold trend condition to unwind. Sights are on 131.97, the 20-day EMA. A clear breach of the average would strengthen the bullish theme. The bear trigger is 130.28, the Jan 15 low.                       

BOBL TECHS: (H5) Trading Below The 20-Day EMA    

• RES 4: 117.820 High Jan 3          
• RES 3: 117.559 50-day EMA    
• RES 2: 117.490 Low Dec 30  
• RES 1: 117.061/180 20-day EMA / High Jan 22                            
• PRICE: 116.750 @ 05:51 GMT Jan 30  
• SUP 1: 116.550/280 Low Jan 24 / Low Jan 14 / 15 and bear trigger                
• SUP 2: 116.210 Low Jul 12 2024 (cont) 
• SUP 3: 115.980 Low Jul 11 ‘24 (cont)
• SUP 4: 115.745 1.50 proj of the Oct 1 - 31 - Dec 2 ‘24 price swing     

A short-term bullish corrective phase in Bobl futures is in play - for now - despite the pullback from recent highs. The Jan 15 rally highlighted a reversal and the start of the correction. An extension higher would allow an oversold trend condition to unwind. Key short-term resistance is seen at 117.061, the 20-day EMA. On the downside, a break of 116.280, the Jan 14 / 15 low, would resume the downtrend.          

SCHATZ TECHS: (H5) Trend Needle Points South              

• RES 4: 107.065 High Jan 2
• RES 3: 106.965 High Jan 3  
• RES 2: 106.695 High Jan 21 / 22
• RES 1: 106.661 20-day EMA      
• PRICE: 106.530 @ 06:10 GMT Jan 30   
• SUP 1: 106.450/435 Low Jan 24 / 15 and the bear trigger             
• SUP 2: 106.375 Low Oct 31  (cont) and a key support
• SUP 3: 106.342 2.764 proj of the Dec 2 - 6 - 12 price swing
• SUP 4: 106.255 3.000 proj of the Dec 2 - 6 - 12 price swing

A medium-term bear cycle in Schatz futures remains intact and recent gains are considered corrective. The Jan 15 recovery highlighted a short-term reversal and the start of the corrective phase. Key near-term resistance at 106.661, the 20-day EMA, remains intact for now. A break of the EMA would signal scope for a stronger bounce. 106.435, the Jan 15 low marks the bear trigger. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend.                                      

GILT TECHS: (H5) A Corrective Phase Remains Intact         

• RES 4: 93.64 61.8% retracement of the Dec 3 - Jan 13 bear leg  
• RES 3: 93.09 High Dec 20    
• RES 2: 92.75 50.0% retracement of the Dec 3 - Jan 13 bear leg
• RES 1: 92.68 High Jan 27               
• PRICE: 92.21 @ Close Jan 29
• SUP 1: 91.52 Low Jan 24                                
• SUP 2: 91.10 Low Jan 20
• SUP 3: 89.68/88.96 Low Jan 15 / 13 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 88.87 2.764 proj of the Dec 20 -27 - Jan 2 price swing

The medium-term trend condition in Gilt futures remains bearish. However, recent gains continue to highlight a corrective phase and signal scope for a continuation higher near-term. The contract has traded through the 20-day EMA and the focus is on 92.75, a Fibonacci retracement point. The bear trigger has been defined at 88.96, the Jan 13 low. Initial support is at 91.52, the Jan 24 low.                      

BTP TECHS: (H5) Resistance Holds Firm For Now                          

• RES 4: 122.85 High Dec 11     
• RES 3: 120.98 61.8% retracement of the Dec 11 - Jan 13 bear leg   
• RES 2: 120.45 High Jan 2   
• RES 1: 119.72 50-day EMA  
• PRICE: 118.97 @ Close Jan 30 
• SUP 1: 118.27/117.16 Low Jan 16 / 13 and the bear trigger          
• SUP 2: 116.59 76.4% retrace of the Jun - Dec ‘24 bull cycle (cont)
• SUP 3: 116.07 Low Jul 8 ‘24 (cont)
• SUP 4: 115.45 Low Jul 3 ‘24 (cont)     

Recent gains in BTP futures continue to highlight a corrective phase. The 20-day EMA has been breached and this exposes the next firm resistance at 119.72, the 50-day EMA. Clearance of the 50-day average would strengthen a bullish condition. The medium-term trend condition is bearish and the pullback from the Jan 22 high may be an early reversal signal. The bear trigger has been defined at 117.16, the Jan 13 low.             

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (H5) Trend Structure Remains Bullish                 

• RES 4: 5335.43 1.618 proj of the Nov 21 - Dec 9 - 20 price swing
• RES 3: 5327.90 1.764 proj of the Dec 20 - Jan 8 - 13 price swing      
• RES 2: 5298.50 1.500 proj of the Nov 21 - Dec 9 - 20 price swing
• RES 1: 5276.00 High Jan 24          
• PRICE: 5257.00 @ 06:26 GMT Jan 30  
• SUP 1: 5144.00 Low Jan 27           
• SUP 2: 5121.39 20-day EMA    
• SUP 3: 5029.78 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 4931.00 Low Jan 13 and a key short-term support  

A bull cycle in the Eurostoxx 50 futures contract remains intact and the move down from the Jan 24 high, appears to have been a correction. A deeper retracement would allow an overbought trend condition to unwind. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode set-up highlighting a dominant uptrend. The first important support to watch is 5121.39, the 20-day EMA. A resumption of the uptrend would open 5298.50, a Fibonacci projection.          

E-MINI S&P: (H5) Resistance Remains Exposed            

• RES 4: 6200.00 Round number resistance   
• RES 3: 6178.75 High Dec 6 and key resistance  
• RES 2: 6163.75 High Dec 16
• RES 1: 6162.28 High Jan 24             
• PRICE: 6088.00 @ 07:22 GMT Jan 30 
• SUP 1: 6015.85 50-day EMA         
• SUP 2: 5961.75/5948.00 Low Jan 16 / 27
• SUP 3: 5943.94 61.8% retracement of the Jan 13 - 24 bull leg
• SUP 4: 5892.37 76.4% retracement of the Aug 5 - Dec 6 bull leg

The S&P E-Minis contract is trading above Monday’s low. Key short-term support to watch lies at 5961.75, the Jan 16 low (pierced). For now, the recent sharp pullback appears corrective, however, a clear breach of 5961.75 would strengthen a bearish threat and signal scope for a deeper retracement, towards 5943.94, a Fibonacci retracement. Key resistance is 6178.75, the Dec 6 high.  

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (J5) Pierces The 50-Day EMA                    

• RES 4: $85.20 - 1.382 proj of the Sep 9 - Oct 7 - 29 price swing    
• RES 3: $83.97 - High Apr 12 ‘24 and a key M/T resistance
• RES 2: $83.28 - High Jul 5 and a key resistance
• RES 1: $81.20 - High Jan 15 and the bull trigger            
• PRICE: $75.55 @ 07:09 GMT Jan 30 
• SUP 1: $75.44/36 - 50-day EMA / Low Jan 29  
• SUP 2: $71.25 - Low Dec 20
• SUP 3: $70.26 - Low Dec 6
• SUP 4: $69.65 - Low Oct 29 

Brent futures are trading at their recent lows. The 20-day EMA has been breached and attention is on the 50-day EMA, at $75.44 (pierced). The current pullback is allowing a recent overbought condition to unwind. A clear breach of the 50-day EMA would signal scope for a deeper retracement. A reversal higher would instead refocus attention on the bull trigger at $81.20, the Jan 15 high.              

WTI TECHS: (H5) Corrective Cycle                

• RES 4: $83.40 - 76.4% retrace of the Jul 5 - Sep 10 bear leg (cont)    
• RES 3: $81.26 - 3.382 proj of the Nov 18 - 22 - Dec 6 price swing  
• RES 2: $80.63 - 3.236 proj of the Nov 18 - 22 - Dec 6 price swing
• RES 1: $79.48 - High Apr 12 ‘24 and a key resistance   
• PRICE: $72.62 @ 07:19 GMT Jan 30 
• SUP 1: $72.23 - 50-day EMA     
• SUP 2: $68.05 - Low Dec 20
• SUP 3: $66.55 - Low Dec 6 ‘24
• SUP 4: $65.80 - Low Oct 29 ‘24 

This week’s move down in WTI futures marks an extension of the current corrective cycle. The 20-day EMA has been breached and attention turns to support around the 50-day EMA, at $72.23. A clear break of the 50-day average would suggest scope for a deeper retracement. On the upside, a reversal higher would focus attention on $79.48, the Apr 12 ‘24 high and a key resistance.              

GOLD TECHS: Trend Needle Points North           

• RES 4: 2817.6 - 1.236 proj of the Nov 14 - Dec 12 - 19 price swing     
• RES 3: $2800.0 - Round number resistance  
• RES 2: $2790.1 - Oct 31 ‘24 all-time high   
• RES 1: $2786.0 - HIgh Jan 24      
• PRICE: $2766.9 @ 07:25 GMT Jan 30
• SUP 1: $2713.0/2678.5 - 20- and 50-day EMA values   
• SUP 2: $2614.8/2583.6 - Low Jan 6 / Low Dec 19
• SUP 3: $2564.4 - Low Nov 18 
• SUP 4: $2536.9 - Low Nov 14 and a key support 

Gold continues to trade closer to its recent highs. A bull cycle is in play and the recent breach of resistance at $2726.2, the Dec 12 high, reinforces current conditions. Sights are on $2790.1, the Oct 31 all-time high. A break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the primary uptrend. On the downside, the first key support to watch is $2678.5, the 50-day EMA. A reversal lower and a breach of this average would reinstate a bearish threat.                  

SILVER TECHS: Gains Appear Corrective                     

• RES 4: $34.903 - High Oct 23 and the bull trigger  
• RES 3: $33.125 - High Nov 1 
• RES 2: $32.338 - High Dec 12 and a key resistance  
• RES 1: $31.107 - High Dec 13                              
• PRICE: $31.017 @ 08:02 GMT Jan 30  
• SUP 1: $29.509/28.748 - Low Jan 13 / Low Dec 19 and bear trigger        
• SUP 2: $28.446 - 76.4% retracement of the Aug 8 - Oct 23 bull cycle 
• SUP 3: $27.686 - Low Sep 6 
• SUP 4: $26.451 - Low Aug 8  

Silver is trading at its recent highs. A bear cycle that started on Oct 23 last year remains in play and recent gains are considered corrective. However, the latest move higher does suggest scope for a continuation near-term. An extension would expose key resistance at $32.338, the Dec 12 high. Clearance of this level would highlight a reversal. Support to watch is $29.509, the Jan 13 low, and $29.748, the Dec 19 low and the bear trigger.