MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - WTI Impulsive Bull Phase

Price Signal Summary – WTI Impulsive Bull Phase

• The trend condition in S&P E-Minis remains bullish and the contract traded to a fresh cycle high last Wednesday, reinforcing current bullish conditions. For now, the most recent pullback is considered corrective. The latest pullback in the Eurostoxx 50 futures contract has resulted in a breach of the 50-day EMA at 5297.58. Price has also pierced 5255.00, the May 23 low.
• The trend condition in GBPUSD remains bullish and price is trading closer to its recent highs. A rising price sequence of higher highs and higher lows, together with a bull set-up in moving average studies, highlights a dominant uptrend. A bullish EURUSD theme remains intact and the pair continues to trade closer to its recent highs. Last Thursday’s rally resulted in a breach of key resistance at 1.1573, the Apr 21 high. The trend set-up in EURJPY remains bullish and the cross has delivered a fresh cycle high once again, today. A key resistance at 165.21, the May 13 high, has been cleared, strengthening bullish conditions that confirms a resumption of the uptrend.           
• A bullish theme in Gold remains intact and this week’s gains reinforce current conditions. Medium-term trend signals are bullish too - moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. WTI futures traded sharply higher last week and Friday’s early rally marked an acceleration of the current bull phase. Price action is likely to remain volatile and from a technical standpoint, the trend is currently in an extreme overbought position. 
• A bull cycle in Bund futures remains intact despite Friday’s pullback from its session high. An early rally Friday resulted in a print above key resistance at 131.85, the Apr 22 high and a bull trigger. A bullish condition is Gilt futures remains intact and Friday’s steep sell-off from the day high is for now, considered corrective. The move higher last week marks an extension of the recent breach of resistance at 91.87, the May 20 high.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE    

EURUSD TECHS: Uptrend Remains Intact                     

• RES 4: 1.1783 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - 27 price swing
• RES 3: 1.1696 1.618 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - 27 price swing
• RES 2: 1.1685 76.4% retracement of the Jan ‘21 - Sep ‘22 downleg
• RES 1: 1.1631 High Jun 12
• PRICE: 1.1547 @ 06:12 BST Jun 16
• SUP 1: 1.1404 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.1267/1.1210 50-day EMA and a pivot level / Low May 29
• SUP 3: 1.1131 Low May 16 
• SUP 4: 1.1065 Low May 12 and a reversal trigger 

A bullish EURUSD theme remains intact and the pair continues to trade closer to its recent highs. Last Thursday’s rally resulted in a breach of key resistance at 1.1573, the Apr 21 high. This strengthens the bullish theme and confirms a resumption of this year's uptrend. Sights are on 1.1696 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support is at 1.1404, the 20-day EMA. The 50-day EMA lies at 1.1267. Short-term weakness is considered corrective.      

GBPUSD TECHS: Trend Needle Points North    

• RES 4: 1.3800 Round number resistance 
• RES 3: 1.3757 1.618 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - 7 price swing
• RES 2: 1.3681 1.500 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - 7 price swing
• RES 1: 1.3624 High Jun 12
• PRICE: 1.3568 @ 06:25 BST Jun 16
• SUP 1: 1.3456 Low Jun 10
• SUP 2: 1.3337 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.3217 Trendline support drawn from the Jan 13 low 
• SUP 4: 1.3140 Low May 12 and key support

The trend condition in GBPUSD remains bullish and price is trading closer to its recent highs. A rising price sequence of higher highs and higher lows, together with a bull set-up in moving average studies, highlights a dominant uptrend. Sights are on 1.3681 next, a Fibonacci projection. Resistance at 1.3616, the Jun 5 high has been pierced - a bullish development. Support to watch lies at 1.3456, the Jun 10 low.       

EURGBP TECHS: Bull Cycle Intact    

• RES 4: 0.8624 High Apr 21    
• RES 3: 0.8592 61.8% retracement of the Apr 11 - May 29 downleg
• RES 2: 0.8566 High Apr 24 
• RES 1: 0.8547 High Jun 12
• PRICE: 0.8517 @ 06:44 BST Jun 16
• SUP 1: 0.8476/8447 Low Jun 12 / 50-day EMA 
• SUP 2: 0.8407/8356 Low Jun 4 / Low May 29 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 3: 0.8327 1.382 proj of the Apr 11 - 16 - 21 price swing
• SUP 4: 0.8316 Low Mar 28 and a key support

A bullish theme in EURGBP remains intact and last week’s gains reinforce current conditions. The cross has cleared the 50-day EMA and the subsequent bullish follow through, highlights a stronger reversal. This signals scope for a climb towards 0.8592, a Fibonacci retracement. Support to watch lies at 0.8447, the 50-day EMA. Clearance of this level would highlight a possible reversal.   

USDJPY TECHS: Bear Threat Remains Present    

• RES 4: 150.49 High Apr 2   
• RES 3: 149.28 High Apr 3
• RES 2: 147.67/148.65 High May 14 / 12 and a reversal trigger
• RES 1: 145.46/146.28 High Jun 11 / High May 29 and key resistance
• PRICE: 144.07 @ 07:04 BST Jun 16
• SUP 1: 142.12 Low May 27 and a key support
• SUP 2: 141.96 76.4% retracement of the Apr 22 - May 12 bull leg
• SUP 3: 139.89 Low Apr 22 and a bear trigger 
• SUP 4: 138.82 1.50 proj of the Feb 12 - Mar 11 - 28 price swing 

USDJPY is trading in a range and remains below last week’s high. Recent weakness suggests the correction between Jun 3 - 11, is over. The trend remains bearish - moving average studies are in a clear bear-mode position too, highlighting a dominant downtrend. A resumption of weakness would open 142.12, the May 27 low. Key short-term resistance is 146.28, the May 29 high. First resistance is 145.46, Jun 11 high.   

EURJPY TECHS: Northbound   

• RES 4: 168.01 High Jul 26 ‘24 
• RES 3: 167.87 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 167.47 61.8% retracement of the Jul 11 - Aug 5 2024 bear leg
• RES 1: 166.87 Intraday high 
• PRICE: 166.45 @ 07:10 BST Jun 16 
• SUP 1: 164.41 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 163.33 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 162.80/161.78 Low Jun 3 / Low May 26 
• SUP 4: 161.09 Low May 23 and key support   

The trend set-up in EURJPY remains bullish and the cross has delivered a fresh cycle high once again, today. A key resistance at 165.21, the May 13 high, has been cleared, strengthening bullish conditions that confirms a resumption of the uptrend and opens 167.47, a Fibonacci retracement. Key short-term support lies at 161.09, the May 23 low, where a break is required to highlight a reversal. First support is at 164.41, the 20-day EMA.    

AUDUSD TECHS: Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat      

• RES 4: 0.6603 High Nov 11 ‘24  
• RES 3: 0.6582 High Nov 12 ‘24
• RES 2: 0.6550 61.8% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Apr 9 bear leg
• RES 1: 0.6546 High June 11
• PRICE: 0.6506 @ 07:55 BST Jun 16
• SUP 1: 0.6457/6423 Intraday low / 50-day EMA 
• SUP 2: 0.6357 Low May 12    
• SUP 3: 0.6275 Low Apr 14 
• SUP 4: 0.6181 Low Apr 11 

The trend set-up in AUDUSD is unchanged, it remains bullish. Key support lies at 0.6423, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average is required to highlight a potential short-term reversal. The pair has recently cleared a key resistance at 0.6515, the May 7 high, confirming a resumption of the uptrend. Sights are on 0.6550, a Fibonacci retracement. Short-term weakness is - for now - considered corrective.  

USDCAD TECHS: Southbound      

• RES 4: 1.4200 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 1.4111 High Apr 4
• RES 2: 1.3861/1.4016 50-day EMA / High May 12 and 13
• RES 1: 1.3732 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.3580 @ 08:01 BST Jun 16
• SUP 1: 1.3566 Low Jun 13
• SUP 2: 1.3535 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 3: 1.3503 1.618 proj of the Feb 3 - 14 - Mar 4 price swing
• SUP 4: 1.3473 Low Oct 2 2024 

The trend needle in USDCAD continues to point south and fresh cycle lows last week reinforce a bearish theme. Support at 1.3686, the May 26 low and a bear trigger, has been cleared, confirming a resumption of the downtrend. This maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Sights are on 1.3535 next, envelope-based support. Key resistance is at the 50-day EMA, at 1.3861. The 20-day EMA is at 1.3732.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U5) Corrective Pullback                          

• RES 4: 132.42 2.000 proj of the May 14 - 20 - 22 price swing
• RES 3: 132.00 Round number resistance    
• RES 2: 131.85/95 High Apr 22 and the bull trigger / High Jun 13
• RES 1: 131.29 50.0% retracement of Friday’s range
• PRICE: 130.71 @ 05:44 BST Jun 16
• SUP 1: 130.65 20-day EMA              
• SUP 2: 130.12 Low Jun 5 a key short-term support 
• SUP 3: 129.30 Low May 22   
• SUP 4: 128.97 Low May 14 and a reversal trigger  

A bull cycle in Bund futures remains intact despite Friday’s pullback from its session high. An early rally Friday resulted in a print above key resistance at 131.85, the Apr 22 high and a bull trigger. A clear break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend that has been in place since Mar 11 and open 132.00 and above. Key short-term support has been defined at 130.12, the Jun 5 low.                                                

BOBL TECHS: (U5) Bullish Outlook Despite Pullback                       

• RES 4: 118.649 1.382 proj of the May 21 - Jun 3 - Jun 5 price swing
• RES 3: 118.531 1.236 proj of the May 21 - Jun 3 - Jun 5 price swing
• RES 2: 118.390 High Jun 13
• RES 1: 118.070 50.0% retracement of Friday’s range   
• PRICE: 117.790 @ 05:53 BST Jun 16  
• SUP 1: 117.750/117.530 Low Jun 13 / Low Jun 5 
• SUP 2: 117.470 Low May 21 and a key near-term support
• SUP 3: 117.470 Low May 21
• SUP 4: 116.660 Low Mar 27       

Bobl futures remain in a bull cycle despite Friday’s strong sell-off from the session high. Early gains Friday resulted in a print above resistance at 118.280, the Jun 3 / 5 high. This signals scope for a climb towards 118.531, a Fibonacci projection. Further out, potential is seen for an extension towards 118.790, the Apr 7 high. On the downside, support to monitor is 117.530, the Jun 5 low. A break of this level would be bearish.                            

SCHATZ TECHS: (U5) Remains Above Support For Now                         

• RES 4: 107.690 High Apr 30 
• RES 3: 107.610 High May 23 and a key near-term resistance
• RES 2: 107.430/475 High Jun 13 / High May 27
• RES 1: 107.332 20-day EMA 
• PRICE: 107.255 @ 06:19 BST Jun 16
• SUP 1: 107.195 Low Jun 6    
• SUP 2: 107.125 Low May 12 and a key support
• SUP 3: 107.000 Round number support 
• SUP 4: 106.890 2.000 proj of the May 23 - 29 - 30 price swing

Schatz futures faced strong resistance Friday, resulting in a pullback from the session high. Support to watch lies at 107.195, the Jun 6 low. A clear break of this level would reinstate a bearish threat and signal scope for an extension towards 107.125, the May 12 low. On the upside, a breach of 107.470, the May 30 high, is required to strengthen a bullish condition. First key resistance is 107.430, the Jun 13 high.                                                            

GILT TECHS: (U5) Bull Cycle Overbought But Remains Intact                         

• RES 4: 94.15 2.000 proj of the May 22 - 27 - 29 price swing
• RES 3: 94.00 Round number resistance      
• RES 2: 93.73 1.764 proj of the May 22 - 27 - 29 price swing
• RES 1: 93.12./93.68 50.0% of Friday’s range / High Jun 13    
• PRICE: 92.65 @ Close Jun 13
• SUP 1: 92.55 Low Jun 13
• SUP 2: 92.04 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 91.56 Low Jun 9   
• SUP 4: 91.44 Low Jun 8        

A bullish condition is Gilt futures remains intact and Friday’s steep sell-off from the day high is for now, considered corrective. The move higher last week marks an extension of the recent breach of resistance at 91.87, the May 20 high. This signals scope for a test of 93.73, a Fibonacci projection point. Note the uptrend is in overbought territory, a deeper pullback would unwind this position. First firm support lies at 92.04, the 20-day EMA.                                   

BTP TECHS: (U5) Trend Structure Remains Bullish

• RES 4: 122.71 2.764proj of the May 14 - 20 - 21 price swing
• RES 3: 122.35 2.500 proj of the May 14 - 20 - 21 price swing 
• RES 2: 122.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 121.73 High Jun 13
• PRICE: 120.78 @ Close Jun 13 
• SUP 1: 120.48 20-day EMA      
• SUP 2: 119.48 Low May 26 
• SUP 3: 118.87 Low May 21  
• SUP 4: 118.51 Low May 14 and key support 

The trend condition in BTP futures is unchanged, it remains bullish and fresh cycle highs last week reinforce current conditions. The move down on Friday is - for now - considered corrective. Last week’s gains maintain the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on the 122.00 handle next. Key support to watch lies at 118.51, the May 14 low. A clear break of this level would highlight a reversal. First support is 120.48 the 20-day EMA.                  

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M5) Pierces Support  

• RES 4: 5565.23 1.618 proj of the Apr 7 - 9 - 10 price swing   
• RES 3: 5516.00 High Mar 3 and the key bull trigger
• RES 2: 5475.00 High May 20
• RES 1: 5365.98 20-day EMA  
• PRICE: 5286.00 @ 06:43 BST Jun 16 
• SUP 1: 5242.00 Low Jun 13  
• SUP 2: 5178.00 Low May 6 
• SUP 3: 5081.61 38.2% retracement of the Apr 7 - May 20 bull leg
• SUP 4: 5055.00 Low Apr 30  

The latest pullback in the Eurostoxx 50 futures contract has resulted in a breach of the 50-day EMA at 5297.58. Price has also pierced 5255.00, the May 23 low. A clear break of both support points would highlight a short-term top and signal scope for a deeper retracement. This would open 5178.00, the May 6 low and 5081.16, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial resistance to watch is 5365.98, the 20-day EMA.               

E-MINI S&P: (U5) Support Remains Intact  

• RES 4: 6200.00 1.500 proj of the Apr 7 - 10 - 21 price swing     
• RES 3: 6172.50 High Feb 24  
• RES 2: 6134.00 High Feb 26
• RES 1: 6128.75 High Jun 11  
• PRICE: 6054.00 @ 07:42 BST Jun 16  
• SUP 1: 5979.00/5882.88 Low Jun 13 / 50-day EMA
• SUP 2:5811.50 Low May 23    
• SUP 3: 5645.75 Low May 7
• SUP 4: 5500.00 Low Apr 30

The trend condition in S&P E-Minis remains bullish and the contract traded to a fresh cycle high last Wednesday, reinforcing current bullish conditions. For now, the most recent pullback is considered corrective. The contract has pierced support at 5990.75, the 20-day EMA. A clear breach of this average would expose the 50-day EMA, at 5882.88. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 6128.75, the Jun 11 high.      

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (Q5) Bull Cycle Intact But Overbought    

• RES 4: $83.46 - 2.764 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May price swing
• RES 3: $82.13 - 2.618 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May price swing 
• RES 2: $80.00 - Psychological round number 
• RES 1: $78.50 - High Jun 13   
• PRICE: $74.59 @ 07:11 BST Jun 16
• SUP 1: $70.41 - Low Jun 13 
• SUP 2: $66.10 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $62.09 - Low May 30
• SUP 4: $57.78 - Low Apr 9 and a key support   

A bull cycle in Brent futures remains in play and last week’s impulsive rally reinforces bullish conditions. Price action is likely to remain volatile and from a technical standpoint, the trend is currently in an extreme overbought position. A continuation higher would expose the $80.00 handle next. A firm short-term support is seen at $70.41, the Jun 13 low. A break of this level would signal scope for a deeper retracement.           

WTI TECHS: (N5) Impulsive Bull Wave          

• RES 4: $84.23 - 3.000 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 3: $81.93 - 2.764 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing 
• RES 2: $80.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 1: $77.62 - High Jun 13 
• PRICE: $73.52 @ 07:20 BST Jun 16 
• SUP 1: $68.49 - Low Jun 13
• SUP 2: $63.62 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $59.74 - Low May 30 
• SUP 4: $54.33 - Low Apr 9 and a key support  

WTI futures traded sharply higher last week and Friday’s early rally marked an acceleration of the current bull phase. Price action is likely to remain volatile and from a technical standpoint, the trend is currently in an extreme overbought position. A continuation higher would expose the $80.00 handle. A firm support is noted $68.49, the Jun 13 low. A breach of this level would signal scope for a deeper retracement.    

GOLD TECHS: Bullish Phase Still In Play                                   

• RES 4: $3578.0 - 2.000 proj of the Dec 19 - Feb 24 - Feb 28 swing
• RES 3: $3547.9 - 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - Apr 7 price swing
• RES 2: $3500.1 - High Apr 22 and bull trigger
• RES 1: $3451.3 - Intraday high          
• PRICE: $3416.9 @ 07:25 BST Jun 16 
• SUP 1: $3335.5/3262.2 - 20- and 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: $3204.7 - Low May 20 
• SUP 3: $3121.0 - Low May 15 and key support 
• SUP 4: $3100.0 - Round number support 

A bullish theme in Gold remains intact and this week’s gains reinforce current conditions. Medium-term trend signals are bullish too - moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Resistance at $3435.6, the May 7 high, has been pierced. A clear break of this level would strengthen the uptrend and open $3500.1, the Apr 22 all-time high. Initial key support to monitor is $3262.2, the 50-day EMA.       

SILVER TECHS: Bull Wave Still Intact                 

• RES 4: $37.478 - High Mar 2012  
• RES 3: $37.195 - 2.236 proj of the May 15 - 22 high / low price swing
• RES 2: $36.987 - 1.000 proj of the Apr 7 - 25 - May 15 price swing
• RES 1: $36.886 - High Jun 9 
• PRICE: $36.455 @ 08:13 BST Jun 16 
• SUP 1: $34.842 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $33.743/31.651 - 50-day EMA / Low May 15
• SUP 3: $30.915/28.351 - Low Apr 11 / 7 and the bear trigger  
• SUP 4: $27.686 - Low Sep 6 ‘24  

A bull wave in Silver remains in play and recent strong gains plus last Monday’s extension, reinforce this condition. The metal has traded through a resistance at $34.903, the Oct 23 ‘24 high and a key bull trigger. The clear break of it marks an important medium-term bullish development. Sights are on $36.987 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial support to watch lies at $34.842, the 20-day EMA.