MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - WTI Bull Cycle Holds

Price Signal Summary – WTI Bull Cycle Holds

• The trend condition in S&P E-Minis remains bullish. For now, the most recent shallow pullback is considered corrective. The contract has pierced support at 6006.73, the 20-day EMA. A clear breach of this average would suggest potential for a deeper retracement. Eurostoxx 50 futures maintain a softer tone and the contract traded lower yesterday. Recent weakness has resulted in a breach of the 50-day EMA, at 5293.56. Price has also traded through 5255.00, the May 23 low.
• Recent weakness in GBPUSD is considered corrective. The pair has breached support at the 20-day EMA. However, support at the 50-day EMA, at 1.3357, remains intact. USDJPY is holding on to its most recent gains. For now - the latest recovery is considered corrective. Trend signals remain bearish - moving average studies are in a bear-mode position highlighting a dominant downtrend.
• A bullish theme in Gold remains intact and this week’s pullback is considered corrective. Medium-term trend signals are bullish too - moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. A bull cycle in WTI futures remains intact and the contract is trading closer to its recent high. Price action is likely to remain volatile near-term, and from a technical standpoint, the trend is in an extreme overbought position.
• Bund futures are in consolidation mode and continue to trade below the Jun 13 high. For now, the latest move down appears to be a correction. Key short-term support to watch lies at 130.12, the Jun 5 low. A bullish condition in Gilt futures remains intact and the latest sell-off is - for now - considered corrective. The move higher last week marks an extension of the recent breach of resistance at 91.87, the May 20 high.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE    

EURUSD TECHS: Trend Structure Remains Bullish                     

• RES 4: 1.1783 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - 27 price swing
• RES 3: 1.1696 1.618 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - 27 price swing
• RES 2: 1.1685 76.4% retracement of the Jan ‘21 - Sep ‘22 downleg
• RES 1: 1.1631 High Jun 12
• PRICE: 1.1528 @ 06:12 BST Jun 20
• SUP 1: 1.1436 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.1302/1.1210 50-day EMA and a pivot level / Low May 29
• SUP 3: 1.1131 Low May 16 
• SUP 4: 1.1065 Low May 12 and a reversal trigger 

The trend set-up in EURUSD remains bullish and recent weakness still appears corrective. The latest rally has resulted in a breach of 1.1573, the Apr 21 high. This strengthens the bullish theme and confirms a resumption of this year's uptrend. Scope is seen for a climb towards 1.1696, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support at 1.1436, the 20-day EMA, remains intact. The 50-day EMA lies at 1.1302.      

GBPUSD TECHS: Support At The 50-Day EMA Remains Intact     

• RES 4: 1.3800 Round number resistance 
• RES 3: 1.3757 1.618 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - 7 price swing
• RES 2: 1.3681 1.500 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - 7 price swing
• RES 1: 1.3632 High Jun 13 and the bull trigger 
• PRICE: 1.3496 @ 06:24 BST Jun 20
• SUP 1: 1.3383 Low Jun 19
• SUP 2: 1.3357 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.3257 Trendline support drawn from the Jan 13 low 
• SUP 4: 1.3140 Low May 12 and key support

Recent weakness in GBPUSD is considered corrective. The pair has breached support at the 20-day EMA. However, support at the 50-day EMA, at 1.3357, remains intact. Key trend signals remain bullish - moving average studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend. Key resistance and the bull trigger has been defined at 1.3632, the Jun 13 high. A break of this hurdle would resume the primary uptrend.        

EURGBP TECHS: Trading Closer To Its Recent Highs

• RES 4: 0.8648 76.4% retracement of the Apr 11 - May 29 downleg    
• RES 3: 0.8624 High Apr 21
• RES 2: 0.8592 61.8% retracement of the Apr 11 - May 29 downleg 
• RES 1: 0.8565 High Jun 18 
• PRICE: 0.8541 @ 06:49 BST Jun 20
• SUP 1: 0.8480/8461 20- and 50-day EMA values 
• SUP 2: 0.8407/8356 Low Jun 4 / Low May 29 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 3: 0.8327 1.382 proj of the Apr 11 - 16 - 21 price swing
• SUP 4: 0.8316 Low Mar 28 and a key support

A bullish theme in EURGBP remains intact and the cross is trading closer to its recent highs. The recent breach of the 50-day EMA highlights a stronger reversal. This signals scope for a climb towards 0.8592 next, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, support to watch lies at 0.8461, the 50-day EMA. Clearance of this level would instead highlight a possible reversal. Support at the 20-day EMA is at 0.8480.    

USDJPY TECHS: Gains Considered Corrective     

• RES 4: 150.49 High Apr 2   
• RES 3: 149.28 High Apr 3
• RES 2: 147.67/148.65 High May 14 / 12 and a reversal trigger
• RES 1: 145.77/146.28 High Jun 19 / High May 29 and key resistance
• PRICE: 145.41 @ 06:57 BST Jun 20
• SUP 1: 142.80/12 Low Jun 11 / Low May 27 and a key support
• SUP 2: 141.96 76.4% retracement of the Apr 22 - May 12 bull leg
• SUP 3: 139.89 Low Apr 22 and a bear trigger 
• SUP 4: 138.82 1.50 proj of the Feb 12 - Mar 11 - 28 price swing 

USDJPY is holding on to its most recent gains. For now - the latest recovery is considered corrective. Trend signals remain bearish - moving average studies are in a bear-mode position highlighting a dominant downtrend. A resumption of weakness would open 142.12, the May 27 low. Resistance at 145.46, the Jun 11 high, has been pierced. Key short-term resistance is 146.28, the May 29 high.   

EURJPY TECHS: Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat   

• RES 4: 169.91 1.236 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - Apr 7 price swing  
• RES 3: 169.55 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 168.01 High Jul 26 ‘24
• RES 1: 167.68 Intraday high 
• PRICE: 167.42 @ 07:22 BST Jun 20 
• SUP 1: 165.26 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 164.95/163.86 Low Jun 13 / 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 162.80/161.78 Low Jun 3 / Low May 26 
• SUP 4: 161.09 Low May 23 and key support   

The trend set-up in EURJPY remains bullish and a fresh cycle high this week reinforces current conditions. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. 167.47, 61.8% of the Jul 11 - Aug 5 ‘24 bear leg, has been pierced. This signals scope for a climb towards 168.01 next, the Jul 26 ‘24 high. Initial support to watch lies at 165.26, the 20-day EMA. Short-term weakness would be considered corrective.     

AUDUSD TECHS: Bullish Outlook      

• RES 4: 0.6700 76.4% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Apr 9 bear leg  
• RES 3: 0.6688 High Nov 7 ‘24
• RES 2: 0.6603 High Nov 11 ‘24
• RES 1: 0.6552 High June 16
• PRICE: 0.6476 @ 07:59 BST Jun 20
• SUP 1: 0.6434 50-day EMA 
• SUP 2: 0.6357 Low May 12    
• SUP 3: 0.6275 Low Apr 14 
• SUP 4: 0.6181 Low Apr 11 

The trend set-up in AUDUSD is unchanged, the outlook remains bullish. Key support to watch remains 0.6434, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this EMA is required to highlight a potential short-term reversal. The pair has recently cleared a key resistance at 0.6515, the May 7 high, confirming a continuation of the uptrend. A resumption of gains would open 0.6550, a Fibonacci retracement.  

USDCAD TECHS: Corrective Cycle       

• RES 4: 1.4111 High Apr 4
• RES 3: 1.4016 High May 12 and 13 and a key resistance 
• RES 2: 1.3832/1.3920 50-day EMA / High May 21 
• RES 1: 1.3747 High Jun 19
• PRICE: 1.3710 @ 08:03 BST Jun 20
• SUP 1: 1.3540/3521 Low Jun 16 / 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 2: 1.3503 1.618 proj of the Feb 3 - 14 - Mar 4 price swing
• SUP 3: 1.3473 Low Oct 2 2024
• SUP 4: 1.3410 1.764 proj of the Feb 3 - 14 - Mar 4 price swing

The trend needle in USDCAD points south and this week’s recovery is considered corrective. Resistance at the 20-day EMA, at 1.3710, has been pierced. A continuation higher would signal scope for a stronger retracement and expose pivot resistance at the 50-day EMA, at 1.3832. For bears, a  reversal lower and a resumption of the downtrend would pave the way for an extension towards 1.3521, envelope-based support.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U5) Trading Above Support                          

• RES 4: 132.42 2.000 proj of the May 14 - 20 - 22 price swing
• RES 3: 132.00 Round number resistance    
• RES 2: 131.85/95 High Apr 22 and the bull trigger / High Jun 13
• RES 1: 131.27 61.8% retracement of the Jun 13 - 16 downleg
• PRICE: 130.96 @ 05:49 BST Jun 20
• SUP 1: 130.17 Low Jun 16              
• SUP 2: 130.12 Low Jun 5 a key short-term support 
• SUP 3: 129.30 Low May 22   
• SUP 4: 128.97 Low May 14 and a reversal trigger  

Bund futures are in consolidation mode and continue to trade below the Jun 13 high. For now, the latest move down appears to be a correction. Key short-term support to watch lies at 130.12, the Jun 5 low. A break of this level would highlight a stronger reversal and undermine the bullish theme. This would open 129.30, the May 22 low. Key short-term resistance 3and the bull trigger, has been defined at 131.95, the Jun 13 high.                                                 

BOBL TECHS: (U5) Monitoring Support                      

• RES 4: 118.649 1.382 proj of the May 21 - Jun 3 - Jun 5 price swing
• RES 3: 118.531 1.236 proj of the May 21 - Jun 3 - Jun 5 price swing
• RES 2: 118.390 High Jun 13 and a bull trigger 
• RES 1: 118.065 61.8% retracement of the Jun 13 - 16 downleg   
• PRICE: 117.880 @ 05:53 BST Jun 20  
• SUP 1: 117.530 Low Jun 5 and a key near-term support 
• SUP 2: 117.470 Low May 21 
• SUP 3: 117.470 Low May 21
• SUP 4: 116.660 Low Mar 27       

Bobl futures remain in a bull cycle, however, the contract continues to trade below its Jun 13 high. The latest pullback has exposed key short-term support at 117.530, the Jun 5 low. A break of this level would highlight a stronger reversal and cancel the recent bull theme. This would open 117.470, the May 21 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 118.390, the Jun 13 high. Clearance of this level would be bullish.                             

SCHATZ TECHS: (U5) Support Remains Exposed                           

• RES 4: 107.690 High Apr 30 
• RES 3: 107.610 High May 23 and a key near-term resistance
• RES 2: 107.430/475 High Jun 13 / High May 27
• RES 1: 107.310 20-day EMA 
• PRICE: 107.270 @ 05:54 BST Jun 20
• SUP 1: 107.195/185 Low Jun 6 / 16    
• SUP 2: 107.125 Low May 12 and a key support
• SUP 3: 107.000 Round number support 
• SUP 4: 106.890 2.000 proj of the May 23 - 29 - 30 price swing

Schatz futures are in consolidation and remain below the Jun 13 high. Support to watch lies at 107.195, the Jun 6 low. It has been pierced, a clear break of this level would reinstate a bearish threat and signal scope for an extension towards 107.125, the May 12 low. On the upside, clearance of 107.470, the May 30 high, is required to strengthen a bullish condition. First key resistance is 107.430, the Jun 13 high.                                                            

GILT TECHS: (U5) Bull Cycle Intact                       

• RES 4: 94.15 2.000 proj of the May 22 - 27 - 29 price swing
• RES 3: 94.00 Round number resistance      
• RES 2: 93.73 1.764 proj of the May 22 - 27 - 29 price swing
• RES 1: 93.13./93.68 61.8% of Jun 13 - 16 downleg / High Jun 13
• PRICE: 92.76 @ Close Jun 19
• SUP 1: 92.30 20-day EMA 
• SUP 2: 92.23 Low Jun 16
• SUP 3: 91.56 Low Jun 9   
• SUP 4: 91.44 Low Jun 8        

A bullish condition in Gilt futures remains intact and the latest sell-off is - for now - considered corrective. The move higher last week marks an extension of the recent breach of resistance at 91.87, the May 20 high. This signals scope for a test of 93.73, a Fibonacci projection point. Note the uptrend is in overbought territory, a deeper pullback would unwind this position. Initial firm support lies at 92.30, the 20-day EMA.                                   

BTP TECHS: (U5) Trend Needle Continues To Point North

• RES 4: 122.71 2.764proj of the May 14 - 20 - 21 price swing
• RES 3: 122.35 2.500 proj of the May 14 - 20 - 21 price swing 
• RES 2: 122.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 121.73 High Jun 13 and the bull trigger 
• PRICE: 120.59 @ Close Jun 19 
• SUP 1: 120.35 Low Jun 16      
• SUP 2: 119.48 Low May 26 
• SUP 3: 118.87 Low May 21  
• SUP 4: 118.51 Low May 14 and key support 

The trend condition in BTP futures is unchanged, it remains bullish and the latest pullback appears corrective. Fresh cycle highs last week reinforce a bull theme and maintain the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on the 122.00 handle next. Key support to watch lies at 118.51, the May 14 low. A clear break of this level would highlight a reversal. First support is 120.35, the Jun 16 low.                   

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M5) Has Breached Support  

• RES 4: 5565.23 1.618 proj of the Apr 7 - 9 - 10 price swing   
• RES 3: 5516.00 High Mar 3 and the key bull trigger
• RES 2: 5475.00 High May 20
• RES 1: 5333.37 20-day EMA  
• PRICE: 5240.00 @ 06:48 BST Jun 20 
• SUP 1: 5188.00 Low Jun 19  
• SUP 2: 5178.00 Low May 6 
• SUP 3: 5081.61 38.2% retracement of the Apr 7 - May 20 bull leg
• SUP 4: 5055.00 Low Apr 30  

Eurostoxx 50 futures maintain a softer tone and the contract traded lower yesterday. Recent weakness has resulted in a breach of the 50-day EMA, at 5293.56. Price has also traded through 5255.00, the May 23 low. A clear break of both support points signals a S/T top and highlights scope for a deeper retracement. Sights are on 5178.00, the May 6 low and 5081.16, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial resistance is 5333.37, the 20-day EMA.               

E-MINI S&P: (U5) Pierces The 20-Day EMA  

• RES 4: 6200.00 1.500 proj of the Apr 7 - 10 - 21 price swing     
• RES 3: 6172.50 High Feb 24  
• RES 2: 6134.00 High Feb 26
• RES 1: 6128.75 High Jun 11 and the bull trigger   
• PRICE: 6027.75 @ 07:29 BST Jun 20  
• SUP 1: 5969.50/5902.27 Intraday low / 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 5811.50 Low May 23    
• SUP 3: 5645.75 Low May 7
• SUP 4: 5500.00 Low Apr 30

The trend condition in S&P E-Minis remains bullish. For now, the most recent shallow pullback is considered corrective. The contract has pierced support at 6006.73, the 20-day EMA. A clear breach of this average would suggest potential for a deeper retracement and expose the 50-day EMA, at 5902.27. Key short-term resistance and the bull trigger has been defined at 6128.75, the Jun 11 high.        

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (Q5) Bull Cycle Remains In Play 

• RES 4: $83.46 - 2.764 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May price swing
• RES 3: $82.13 - 2.618 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May price swing 
• RES 2: $80.00 - Psychological round number 
• RES 1: $79.04 - High Jun 19   
• PRICE: $76.71 @ 07:15 BST Jun 20
• SUP 1: $70.41 - Low Jun 13 
• SUP 2: $67.62 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $62.09 - Low May 30
• SUP 4: $57.78 - Low Apr 9 and a key support   

A bull cycle in Brent futures is in play and the contract continues to trade closer to its recent highs. Price action is likely to remain volatile near-term and from a technical standpoint, the trend is in an extreme overbought position. A continuation higher would expose the $80.00 handle next. A firm short-term support is seen at $70.41, the Jun 13 low. A clear breach of this level would signal scope for a deeper retracement.           

WTI TECHS: (Q5) Northbound         

• RES 4: $82.62 - 3.000 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 3: $80.43 - 2.764 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing 
• RES 2: $80.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 1: $75.74- High Jun 19 
• PRICE: $73.46 @ 07:22 BST Jun 20 
• SUP 1: $67.11 - Low Jun 13
• SUP 2: $63.96 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $58.87 - Low May 30 
• SUP 4: $54.13 - Low Apr 9 and a key support  

A bull cycle in WTI futures remains intact and the contract is trading closer to its recent high. Price action is likely to remain volatile near-term, and from a technical standpoint, the trend is in an extreme overbought position. A continuation higher would expose the $80.00 handle. A firm support is noted at $67.11, the Jun 13 low. A breach of this level would signal scope for a deeper retracement.    

GOLD TECHS: MA Studies Highlight A Dominant Uptrend                                    

• RES 4: $3578.0 - 2.000 proj of the Dec 19 - Feb 24 - Feb 28 swing
• RES 3: $3547.9 - 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - Apr 7 price swing
• RES 2: $3500.1 - High Apr 22 and bull trigger
• RES 1: $3451.3 - High Jun 16          
• PRICE: $3344.8 @ 07:29 BST Jun 20 
• SUP 1: $3338.8/3279.3 - Low Jun 12 / 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: $3204.7 - Low May 20 
• SUP 3: $3121.0 - Low May 15 and key support 
• SUP 4: $3100.0 - Round number support 

A bullish theme in Gold remains intact and this week’s pullback is considered corrective. Medium-term trend signals are bullish too - moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Resistance at $3435.6, the May 7 high, has been pierced. A clear break of this level would strengthen the uptrend and open $3500.1, the Apr 22 all-time high. Initial key support to monitor is $3279.3, the 50-day EMA.       

SILVER TECHS: Retracement Mode                   

• RES 4: $39.026 - 1.382 proj of the Apr 7 - 25 - May 15 price swing 
• RES 3: $38.246 - 1.236 proj of the Apr 7 - 25 - May 15 price swing
• RES 2: $38.000 - Round number resistance 
• RES 1: $37.317 - High Jun 18  
• PRICE: $35.726 @ 08:07 BST Jun 20 
• SUP 1: $35.432 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $34.169/31.651 - 50-day EMA / Low May 15
• SUP 3: $30.915/28.351 - Low Apr 11 / 7 and the bear trigger  
• SUP 4: $27.686 - Low Sep 6 ‘24  

A bull wave in Silver remains in play and the latest pullback is - for now - considered corrective. The metal has recently traded through a resistance at $34.903, the Oct 23 ‘24 high and a key bull trigger. The clear break of it marks an important medium-term bullish development. Sights are on the $38.00 handle next. On the downside, initial support to watch lies at $35.432, the 20-day EMA.