MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - USDJPY Trend Remains Down

Price Signal Summary – USDJPY Trend Direction Remains Down

• The trend condition in S&P E-Minis is unchanged, it remains bullish and the contract traded to a fresh cycle high last Wednesday, reinforcing current bullish conditions. The latest pullback in the Eurostoxx 50 futures contract has resulted in a breach of the 50-day EMA at 5299.04. Price has also pierced 5255.00, the May 23 low.          
• GBPUSD bulls remain in the driver’s seat and the pair is trading closer to its recent highs. A rising price sequence of higher highs and higher lows, together with a bull set-up in moving average studies. USDJPY is trading in a range and remains below last week’s high. Recent weakness suggests the correction between Jun 3 - 11, is over. The trend direction is down - moving average studies are in a clear bear-mode position. The trend set-up in AUDUSD is unchanged, it remains bullish and the pair is holding on to its latest gains. Key support at 0.6427, the 50-day EMA, remains intact.                   
• WTI futures traded sharply higher last week and Friday’s early rally marked an acceleration of the current bull phase. Price action is likely to remain volatile near-term, and from a technical standpoint, the trend is currently in an extreme overbought position. A bullish theme in Gold remains intact and last week’s gains reinforce current conditions. Medium-term trend signals are bullish too - moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend.          
• Bund futures traded lower Monday, extending the reversal from Friday’s session high. For now, the move down is considered corrective and key short-term support to watch lies at 130.12, the Jun 5 low. A bullish condition is Gilt futures remains intact and Friday’s steep sell-off from the session high is - for now - considered corrective. The move higher last week marks an extension of the recent breach of resistance at 91.87, the May 20 high.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE    

EURUSD TECHS: Trend Needle Points North                     

• RES 4: 1.1783 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - 27 price swing
• RES 3: 1.1696 1.618 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - 27 price swing
• RES 2: 1.1685 76.4% retracement of the Jan ‘21 - Sep ‘22 downleg
• RES 1: 1.1631 High Jun 12
• PRICE: 1.1563 @ 06:01 BST Jun 17
• SUP 1: 1.1419 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.1278/1.1210 50-day EMA and a pivot level / Low May 29
• SUP 3: 1.1131 Low May 16 
• SUP 4: 1.1065 Low May 12 and a reversal trigger 

The trend set-up in EURUSD remains bullish and the pair continues to trade closer to its recent highs. A key resistance at 1.1573, the Apr 21 high, has been breached. This strengthens the bullish theme and confirms a resumption of this year's uptrend. Sights are on 1.1696 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support is at 1.1419, the 20-day EMA. The 50-day EMA lies at 1.1278. Short-term weakness is considered corrective.      

GBPUSD TECHS: Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat    

• RES 4: 1.3800 Round number resistance 
• RES 3: 1.3757 1.618 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - 7 price swing
• RES 2: 1.3681 1.500 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - 7 price swing
• RES 1: 1.3632 High Jun 13
• PRICE: 1.3574 @ 06:16 BST Jun 17
• SUP 1: 1.3456 Low Jun 10
• SUP 2: 1.3346 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.3207 Trendline support drawn from the Jan 13 low 
• SUP 4: 1.3140 Low May 12 and key support

GBPUSD bulls remain in the driver’s seat and the pair is trading closer to its recent highs. A rising price sequence of higher highs and higher lows, together with a bull set-up in moving average studies, highlights a dominant uptrend. Sights are on 1.3681 next, a Fibonacci projection. Resistance at 1.3616, the Jun 5 high has been pierced - a bullish development. Support to watch lies at 1.3456, the Jun 10 low.       

EURGBP TECHS: Bullish Outlook    

• RES 4: 0.8624 High Apr 21    
• RES 3: 0.8592 61.8% retracement of the Apr 11 - May 29 downleg
• RES 2: 0.8566 High Apr 24 
• RES 1: 0.8547 High Jun 12
• PRICE: 0.8516 @ 06:44 BST Jun 17
• SUP 1: 0.8476/8450 Low Jun 12 / 50-day EMA 
• SUP 2: 0.8407/8356 Low Jun 4 / Low May 29 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 3: 0.8327 1.382 proj of the Apr 11 - 16 - 21 price swing
• SUP 4: 0.8316 Low Mar 28 and a key support

A bullish theme in EURGBP remains intact and last week’s gains reinforce current conditions. The cross remains above the 50-day EMA and the breach of the average highlights a stronger reversal. This signals scope for a climb towards 0.8592, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, support to watch lies at 0.8450, the 50-day EMA. Clearance of this level would highlight a possible reversal.   

USDJPY TECHS: Resistance Remains Intact    

• RES 4: 150.49 High Apr 2   
• RES 3: 149.28 High Apr 3
• RES 2: 147.67/148.65 High May 14 / 12 and a reversal trigger
• RES 1: 145.46/146.28 High Jun 11 / High May 29 and key resistance
• PRICE: 144.78 @ 07:03 BST Jun 17
• SUP 1: 142.80/12 Low Jun 11 / Low May 27 and a key support
• SUP 2: 141.96 76.4% retracement of the Apr 22 - May 12 bull leg
• SUP 3: 139.89 Low Apr 22 and a bear trigger 
• SUP 4: 138.82 1.50 proj of the Feb 12 - Mar 11 - 28 price swing 

USDJPY is trading in a range and remains below last week’s high. Recent weakness suggests the correction between Jun 3 - 11, is over. The trend direction is down - moving average studies are in a clear bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. A resumption of weakness would open 142.12, the May 27 low. Key short-term resistance is 146.28, the May 29 high. First resistance is 145.46, Jun 11 high.   

EURJPY TECHS: Northbound   

• RES 4: 169.91 1.236 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - Apr 7 price swing  
• RES 3: 168.58 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 168.01 High Jul 26 ‘24
• RES 1: 167.59 High Jun 16 
• PRICE: 167.40 @ 07:21 BST Jun 17 
• SUP 1: 165.91/164.69 Low Jun 16 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 163.48 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 162.80/161.78 Low Jun 3 / Low May 26 
• SUP 4: 161.09 Low May 23 and key support   

The trend set-up in EURJPY remains bullish and Monday's strong start to the week reinforces current conditions. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. 167.47, 61.8% of the Jul 11 - Aug 5 ‘24 bear leg, has been pierced. This signals scope for a climb towards 168.01 next, the Jul 26 ‘24 high. Initial support to watch lies at 164.69, the 20-day EMA.     

AUDUSD TECHS: Support At The 50-Day EMA Remains Intact     

• RES 4: 0.6700 76.4% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Apr 9 bear leg  
• RES 3: 0.6688 High Nov 7 ‘24
• RES 2: 0.6603 High Nov 11 ‘24
• RES 1: 0.6552 High June 16
• PRICE: 0.6536 @ 07:59 BST Jun 17
• SUP 1: 0.6457/6427 Low Jun 13 / 50-day EMA 
• SUP 2: 0.6357 Low May 12    
• SUP 3: 0.6275 Low Apr 14 
• SUP 4: 0.6181 Low Apr 11 

The trend set-up in AUDUSD is unchanged, it remains bullish and the pair is holding on to its latest gains. Key support at 0.6427, the 50-day EMA, remains intact. A clear break of this EMA is required to highlight a potential short-term reversal. The pair has recently cleared a key resistance at 0.6515, the May 7 high, confirming a resumption of the uptrend. Sights are on 0.6550, a Fibonacci retracement.  

USDCAD TECHS: Fresh Cycle Low       

• RES 4: 1.4200 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 1.4111 High Apr 4
• RES 2: 1.3850/1.4016 50-day EMA / High May 12 and 13
• RES 1: 1.3717 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.3578 @ 08:05 BST Jun 17
• SUP 1: 1.3540/3521 Low Jun 16 / 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 2: 1.3503 1.618 proj of the Feb 3 - 14 - Mar 4 price swing
• SUP 3: 1.3473 Low Oct 2 2024
• SUP 4: 1.3410 1.764 proj of the Feb 3 - 14 - Mar 4 price swing

The trend needle in USDCAD continues to point south and fresh cycle lows last week and again on Monday, reinforce a bearish theme. Support at 1.3686, the May 26 low and a bear trigger, has been cleared, confirming a resumption of the downtrend. This maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Sights are on 1.3521 next, envelope-based support. Resistance at the 20-day EMA is at 1.3732.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U5) Monitoring Support                         

• RES 4: 132.42 2.000 proj of the May 14 - 20 - 22 price swing
• RES 3: 132.00 Round number resistance    
• RES 2: 131.85/95 High Apr 22 and the bull trigger / High Jun 13
• RES 1: 131.06 50.0% retracement of the Jun 13 - 16 downleg
• PRICE: 130.64 @ 05:43 BST Jun 17
• SUP 1: 130.17 Low Jun 16              
• SUP 2: 130.12 Low Jun 5 a key short-term support 
• SUP 3: 129.30 Low May 22   
• SUP 4: 128.97 Low May 14 and a reversal trigger  

Bund futures traded lower Monday, extending the reversal from Friday’s session high. For now, the move down is considered corrective and key short-term support to watch lies at 130.12, the Jun 5 low. A break of this level would highlight a stronger reversal and undermine the bullish theme. Key short-term resistance and the bull trigger, has been defined at 131.95, the Jun 13 high.                                                 

BOBL TECHS: (U5) Support Remains Exposed                      

• RES 4: 118.649 1.382 proj of the May 21 - Jun 3 - Jun 5 price swing
• RES 3: 118.531 1.236 proj of the May 21 - Jun 3 - Jun 5 price swing
• RES 2: 118.390 High Jun 13 and a bull trigger 
• RES 1: 117.965 50.0% retracement of the Jun 13 - 16 downleg   
• PRICE: 117.780 @ 05:54 BST Jun 17  
• SUP 1: 117.530 Low Jun 5 and a key near-term support 
• SUP 2: 117.470 Low May 21 
• SUP 3: 117.470 Low May 21
• SUP 4: 116.660 Low Mar 27       

Bobl futures remain in a bull cycle, however, the contract has extended the reversal from Friday’s session high. This has exposed key short-term support at 117.530, the Jun 5 low. A break of this level would highlight a stronger reversal and cancel the recent bull theme. This would open 117.470, the May 21 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 118.390, the Jun 13 high. A breach of this level would be bullish.                             

SCHATZ TECHS: (U5) Pierces Support                          

• RES 4: 107.690 High Apr 30 
• RES 3: 107.610 High May 23 and a key near-term resistance
• RES 2: 107.430/475 High Jun 13 / High May 27
• RES 1: 107.327 20-day EMA 
• PRICE: 107.255 @ 06:09 BST Jun 17
• SUP 1: 107.195/185 Low Jun 6 / 16    
• SUP 2: 107.125 Low May 12 and a key support
• SUP 3: 107.000 Round number support 
• SUP 4: 106.890 2.000 proj of the May 23 - 29 - 30 price swing

Schatz futures faced strong resistance Friday, resulting in a pullback from the session high. Support to watch lies at 107.195, the Jun 6 low. It has been pierced, a clear break of this level would reinstate a bearish threat and signal scope for an extension towards 107.125, the May 12 low. On the upside, a breach of 107.470, the May 30 high, is required to strengthen a bullish condition. First key resistance is 107.430, the Jun 13 high.                                                            

GILT TECHS: (U5) Pullback Considered Corrective                         

• RES 4: 94.15 2.000 proj of the May 22 - 27 - 29 price swing
• RES 3: 94.00 Round number resistance      
• RES 2: 93.73 1.764 proj of the May 22 - 27 - 29 price swing
• RES 1: 92.95./93.68 50.0% of Jun 13 - 16 downleg / High Jun 13
• PRICE: 92.80 @ Close Jun 16
• SUP 1: 92.23 Low Jun 16 
• SUP 2: 92.11 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 91.56 Low Jun 9   
• SUP 4: 91.44 Low Jun 8        

A bullish condition is Gilt futures remains intact and Friday’s steep sell-off from the session high is - for now - considered corrective. The move higher last week marks an extension of the recent breach of resistance at 91.87, the May 20 high. This signals scope for a test of 93.73, a Fibonacci projection point. Note the uptrend is in overbought territory, a deeper pullback would unwind this position. First firm support lies at 92.11, the 20-day EMA.                                   

BTP TECHS: (U5) Bullish Trend Sequence Intact

• RES 4: 122.71 2.764proj of the May 14 - 20 - 21 price swing
• RES 3: 122.35 2.500 proj of the May 14 - 20 - 21 price swing 
• RES 2: 122.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 121.73 High Jun 13
• PRICE: 121.04 @ Close Jun 16 
• SUP 1: 120.35 Low Jun 16      
• SUP 2: 119.48 Low May 26 
• SUP 3: 118.87 Low May 21  
• SUP 4: 118.51 Low May 14 and key support 

The trend condition in BTP futures is unchanged, it remains bullish and the latest pullback is considered corrective. Fresh cycle highs last week reinforce a bull theme and maintain the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on the 122.00 handle next. Key support to watch lies at 118.51, the May 14 low. A clear break of this level would highlight a reversal. First support is 120.35, Monday’s low.                   

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M5) Challenging Support  

• RES 4: 5565.23 1.618 proj of the Apr 7 - 9 - 10 price swing   
• RES 3: 5516.00 High Mar 3 and the key bull trigger
• RES 2: 5475.00 High May 20
• RES 1: 5365.98 20-day EMA  
• PRICE: 5302.00 @ 06:34 BST Jun 17 
• SUP 1: 5242.00 Low Jun 13  
• SUP 2: 5178.00 Low May 6 
• SUP 3: 5081.61 38.2% retracement of the Apr 7 - May 20 bull leg
• SUP 4: 5055.00 Low Apr 30  

The latest pullback in the Eurostoxx 50 futures contract has resulted in a breach of the 50-day EMA at 5299.04. Price has also pierced 5255.00, the May 23 low. A clear break of both support points would signal a short-term top and highlight scope for a deeper retracement. This would open 5178.00, the May 6 low and 5081.16, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial resistance to watch is 5363.03, the 20-day EMA.               

E-MINI S&P: (U5) Trend Condition Remains Bullish  

• RES 4: 6200.00 1.500 proj of the Apr 7 - 10 - 21 price swing     
• RES 3: 6172.50 High Feb 24  
• RES 2: 6134.00 High Feb 26
• RES 1: 6128.75 High Jun 11 and the bull trigger   
• PRICE: 6072.50 @ 07:27 BST Jun 17  
• SUP 1: 5979.00/5890.99 Low Jun 13 / 50-day EMA
• SUP 2:5811.50 Low May 23    
• SUP 3: 5645.75 Low May 7
• SUP 4: 5500.00 Low Apr 30

The trend condition in S&P E-Minis is unchanged, it remains bullish and the contract traded to a fresh cycle high last Wednesday, reinforcing current bullish conditions. For now, the most recent pullback is considered corrective. The contract has pierced support at 6000.18, the 20-day EMA. A clear breach of this average would expose the 50-day EMA, at 5890.99. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 6128.75, the Jun 11 high.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (Q5) Remains Above Support

• RES 4: $83.46 - 2.764 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May price swing
• RES 3: $82.13 - 2.618 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May price swing 
• RES 2: $80.00 - Psychological round number 
• RES 1: $78.50 - High Jun 13   
• PRICE: $73.48 @ 07:16 BST Jun 17
• SUP 1: $70.41 - Low Jun 13 
• SUP 2: $66.38 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $62.09 - Low May 30
• SUP 4: $57.78 - Low Apr 9 and a key support   

A bull cycle in Brent futures remains in play and last week’s impulsive rally reinforces bullish conditions. Price action is likely to remain volatile near-term and from a technical standpoint, the trend is currently in an extreme overbought position. A continuation higher would expose the $80.00 handle next. A firm short-term support is seen at $70.41, the Jun 13 low. A break of this level would signal scope for a deeper retracement.           

WTI TECHS: (N5) Impulsive Bull Wave Intact          

• RES 4: $84.23 - 3.000 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 3: $81.93 - 2.764 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing 
• RES 2: $80.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 1: $77.62 - High Jun 13 
• PRICE: $71.95 @ 07:21 BST Jun 17 
• SUP 1: $68.49 - Low Jun 13
• SUP 2: $63.94 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $59.74 - Low May 30 
• SUP 4: $54.33 - Low Apr 9 and a key support  

WTI futures traded sharply higher last week and Friday’s early rally marked an acceleration of the current bull phase. Price action is likely to remain volatile near-term, and from a technical standpoint, the trend is currently in an extreme overbought position. A continuation higher would expose the $80.00 handle. A firm support is noted $68.49, the Jun 13 low. A breach of this level would signal scope for a deeper retracement.    

GOLD TECHS: Bullish Phase Remains In Play                                   

• RES 4: $3578.0 - 2.000 proj of the Dec 19 - Feb 24 - Feb 28 swing
• RES 3: $3547.9 - 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - Apr 7 price swing
• RES 2: $3500.1 - High Apr 22 and bull trigger
• RES 1: $3451.3 - High Jun 16          
• PRICE: $3388.1 @ 07:29 BST Jun 17 
• SUP 1: $3340.2/3267.0 - 20- and 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: $3204.7 - Low May 20 
• SUP 3: $3121.0 - Low May 15 and key support 
• SUP 4: $3100.0 - Round number support 

A bullish theme in Gold remains intact and last week’s gains reinforce current conditions. Medium-term trend signals are bullish too - moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Resistance at $3435.6, the May 7 high, has been pierced. A clear break of this level would strengthen the uptrend and open $3500.1, the Apr 22 all-time high. Initial key support to monitor is $3267.0, the 50-day EMA.       

SILVER TECHS: Bull Cycle                 

• RES 4: $37.478 - High Mar 2012  
• RES 3: $37.195 - 2.236 proj of the May 15 - 22 high / low price swing
• RES 2: $36.987 - 1.000 proj of the Apr 7 - 25 - May 15 price swing
• RES 1: $36.886 - High Jun 9 
• PRICE: $36.458 @ 08:08 BST Jun 17 
• SUP 1: $34.982 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $33.842/31.651 - 50-day EMA / Low May 15
• SUP 3: $30.915/28.351 - Low Apr 11 / 7 and the bear trigger  
• SUP 4: $27.686 - Low Sep 6 ‘24  

Silver is unchanged. A bull wave remains in play and recent strong gains plus last Monday’s extension, reinforce this condition. The metal has traded through a resistance at $34.903, the Oct 23 ‘24 high and a key bull trigger. The clear break of it marks an important medium-term bullish development. Sights are on $36.987 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial support to watch lies at $34.982, the 20-day EMA.