MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - USDJPY Trend Points North

Price Signal Summary - USDJPY Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat     

• In the equity space, a bear threat in the S&P E-Minis contract remains present despite the most recent gains. Attention is on 5866.00, the Dec 20 low and a key S/T support. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bearish theme. Initial firm resistance is 6107.50, the Dec 26 high. A breach of this hurdle would highlight a bull reversal and open key resistance at 6178.75, the Dec 6 high. A bull cycle in the EUROSTOXX 50 futures contract remains intact. Yesterday’s strong rally highlights a reversal of the recent corrective pullback and attention is on resistance at 5040.00, the Dec 9 high. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the bull cycle that started on Nov 21 last year. Initial firm support lies at 4921.43, the 50-day EMA.             
• In FX, the trend condition in EURUSD remains bearish and Monday’s strong gains appear - for now - corrective. Last Thursday’s sharp sell-off reinforces current conditions and note too that moving average studies remain in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. The 20-day EMA, at 1.0412, has been pierced. The next resistance to watch is 1.0458, the Dec 30 high. The sharp sell-off in GBPUSD last Thursday confirmed a resumption of the medium-term downtrend. The move down maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs and note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a clear downtrend. Monday’s strong gains are - for now - considered corrective. Initial firm resistance at 1.2558, the 20-day EMA, has been pierced. The 50-day EMA is at 1.2680. USDJPY bulls remain in the driver’s seat and today’s fresh cycle high reinforces current bullish conditions. The recent breach of 156.75, the Nov 15 high, confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and has paved the way for a move towards 159.45, the Jul 12 high. Initial firm support is 156.05, the 20-day EMA.  
• On the commodity front, Gold is unchanged. A bear threat remains present despite the latest recovery. The yellow metal traded sharply lower on Dec 18 and the move undermines a recent bull theme. A resumption of weakness would open key support at $2536.9, the Nov 14 low. The first firm support to watch is $2583.6, the Dec 19 low. On the upside, a resumption of gains would instead signal scope for a climb towards resistance at $2726.2, the Dec 12 high. In the oil space WTI futures are holding on to the bulk of their recent gains. A stronger reversal to the upside has exposed key short-term resistance at $76.41, the Oct 8 high. On the downside, a reversal lower would expose key support at the 20-day EMA, at $70.78.        
• In the FI space, the trend cycle in Bund futures remains bearish and last Friday’s sell-off plus Monday’s extension, reinforces this theme. Sights are on key support at 132.00, the Nov 6 low. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bearish theme. Initial resistance is seen at 133.48, last Friday’s high. Key short-term resistance is at 134.10, the 20-day EMA. The trend condition in Gilt futures is unchanged, it remains bearish and recent short-term gains appear to have been corrective. The recent breach of 91.87, the Dec 19 low, confirmed a resumption of the downtrend. Sights are on 91.58 next, a 4.382 projection of the Dec 3 - 4 - 5 minor price swing. Initial resistance is at 92.08, the Jan 2 high. Resistance at the 20-day EMA, is at 93.16, and the average is seen as an important hurdle for bulls.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE    

EURUSD TECHS: Bounce Considered Corrective 

• RES 4: 1.0825 High Nov 7 
• RES 3: 1.0630 High Dec 06
• RES 2: 1.0537 50-day EMA 
• RES 1: 1.0458 High Dec 30 
• PRICE: 1.0398 @ 06:01 GMT Jan 7
• SUP 1: 1.0226 Low Jan 2
• SUP 2: 1.0209 3.0% Lower Bollinger Band
• SUP 3: 1.0201 61.8% of the Sep ‘22 - Jul ‘23 bull leg 
• SUP 4: 1.0166 2.0% 10-dma envelope  

The trend condition in EURUSD remains bearish and Monday’s strong gains appear - for now - corrective. Last Thursday’s sharp sell-off reinforces current conditions and note too that moving average studies remain in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. The 20-day EMA, at 1.0412, has been pierced. The next resistance to watch is 1.0458, the Dec 30 high. The bear trigger has been defined at 1.0226, the Jan 2 low.  

GBPUSD TECHS: Monitoring Resistance 

• RES 4: 1.2811 High Dec 6 and key resistance 
• RES 3: 1.2729 High Dec 17     
• RES 2: 1.2680 50-day EMA 
• RES 1: 1.2558/2576 20-day EMA / Intraday high 
• PRICE: 1.2566 @ 10:22 GMT Jan 7
• SUP 1: 1.2353 Low Jan 2
• SUP 2: 1.2300 Low Apr 22 2024
• SUP 3: 1.2266 Low Nov 14 2023
• SUP 4: 1.2261 2.0% 10-dma envelope   

The sharp sell-off in GBPUSD last Thursday confirmed a resumption of the medium-term downtrend. The move down maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs and note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a clear downtrend. Monday’s strong gains are - for now - considered corrective. Initial firm resistance is at 1.2558, the 20-day EMA. The bear trigger is 1.2353, the Jan 2 low.   

EURGBP TECHS: Resistance Remains Intact            

• RES 4: 0.8448 High Oct 31 and reversal trigger
• RES 3: 0.8376 High Nov 19 and a bull trigger 
• RES 2: 0.8356 High Nov 27
• RES 1: 0.8312/29 50-day EMA / High Dec 27 
• PRICE: 0.8293 @ 07:04 GMT Jan 7
• SUP 1: 0.8263/23 Low Dec 31 / 19
• SUP 2: 0.8203 Low Mar 7 2022 and a major support 
• SUP 3: 0.8200 Round number support
• SUP 4: 0.8188 1.00 proj of the Oct 31 - Nov 11 - 19 price swing

EURGBP remains in consolidation mode and continues to trade closer to its recent highs. Resistance at 0.8312, the 50-day EMA, has recently been pierced. A clear breach of the average would undermine the bear dominant theme and highlight a stronger reversal. A resumption of the primary downtrend would pave the way for a move towards major support at 0.8203, the Mar 7 ‘22 low and the lowest point of a multi-year range.  

USDJPY TECHS: Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat           

• RES 4: 160.00 Round number resistance   
• RES 3: 159.45 High Jul 12
• RES 2: 159.26 0.618 proj of the Sep 16 - Nov 15 - Dec 3 price swing  
• RES 1: 158.42 Intraday high  
• PRICE: 157.80@ 06:47 GMT Jan 7
• SUP 1: 156.05 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 154.44 Low Dec 19  
• SUP 3: 154.00 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 153.16 Low Dec 17  

USDJPY bulls remain in the driver’s seat and today’s fresh cycle high reinforces current bullish conditions. The recent breach of 156.75, the Nov 15 high, confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and has paved the way for a move towards 159.45, the Jul 12 high. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend. Initial firm support is 156.05, the 20-day EMA.     

EURJPY TECHS: Trend Structure Still Bullish               

• RES 4: 166.53 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 166.10 High Nov 6  
• RES 2: 165.04 High Nov 15 and a key short-term resistance
• RES 1: 164.40 Intraday high
• PRICE: 164.11 @ 07:19 GMT Jan 7 
• SUP 1: 162.46/160.91 20-day EMA / Low Jan 2    
• SUP 2: 160.54 50.0% retracement of the Dec 3 - 30 bull cycle   
• SUP 3: 159.51 61.8% retracement of the Dec 3 - 30 bull cycle
• SUP 4: 158.67 Low Dec 11

EURJPY traded higher Monday but remains below the Dec 30 high. The recent move down appears corrective and a bullish S/T condition is intact. The next support to watch lies at 160.54, 50.0% of the Dec 3 - 30 bull cycle. The 61.8% level is at 159.51. Monday’s gains are a positive development, a resumption of the uptrend would open 165.04, the Nov 15 high. Clearance of this hurdle would expose 166.69, the Oct 31 high and a major resistance.         

AUDUSD TECHS: Testing Resistance At The 20-Day EMA  

• RES 4: 0.6471 High Dec 9
• RES 3: 0.6400 50-day EMA               
• RES 2: 0.6341 High Dec 18   
• RES 1: 0.6273/0.6302 20-day EMA / High Jan 6
• PRICE: 0.6275 @ 07:59 GMT Jan 7 
• SUP 1: 0.6179 Low Dec 31 
• SUP 3: 0.6158 1.236 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
• SUP 3: 0.6100 Round number support 
• SUP 4: 0.6045 1.500 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing

Despite Monday’s gains, a bearish trend condition in AUDUSD remains intact. Recent weakness maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position too, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Scope is seen for an extension towards 0.6158 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance to monitor is 0.6276, 20-day EMA. It has been pierced. The 50-day EMA is at 0.6400.  

USDCAD TECHS: Pullback Considered Corrective   

• RES 4: 1.4674 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 1.4539 3.382 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
• RES 2: 1.4508 3.236 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
• RES 1: 1.4467 High Dec 19 
• PRICE: 1.4305 @ 08:03 GMT Jan 7 
• SUP 1: 1.4322/4280 20-day EMA / Low Jan 6  
• SUP 2: 1.4232 Low Dec 17 
• SUP 3: 1.4155 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 1.4011 Low Dec 5

USDCAD traded lower Monday. The trend set-up remains bullish and a move down appears corrective - for now. The latest pause in the uptrend appears to be a flag formation - a bullish continuation signal. Note too that MA studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on 1.4508 next, a Fibonacci projection level. 1.4322, the 20-day EMA, has been pierced. A clear break of the EMA would open 1.4155, the 50-day EMA.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (H5) Key Support Remains Exposed   

• RES 4: 137.75 Low Dec 10            
• RES 3: 135.15 High Dec 13 
• RES 2: 134.10 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 133.48 High Jan 3                
• PRICE: 132.39 05:36 GMT Jan 7
• SUP 1: 132.11 Intraday low    
• SUP 2  132.00 Low Nov 6 and key support               
• SUP 3: 130.78 123..6% retracement of the Nov 6 - Dec 2 bull leg
• SUP 4: 130.00 Psychological round number     

The trend cycle in Bund futures remains bearish and last Friday’s sell-off plus Monday’s extension, reinforces this theme. The contract has recently traded through 133.22, 76.4% of the Nov 6 - Dec 2 bull cycle. This has opened key support at 132.00, the Nov 6 low. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bearish theme. Initial resistance is seen at 133.48, last Friday’s high. Key short-term resistance is at 134.10, the 20-day EMA.                      

BOBL TECHS: (H5) Pierces Key Support  

• RES 4: 118.640 Low Dec 6        
• RES 3: 118.520 High Dec 13   
• RES 2: 118.076 20-day EMA 
• RES 1: 117.490/870 Low Dec 30 / High Jan 3                           
• PRICE: 117.240 @ 05:50 GMT Jan 7  
• SUP 1: 117.150 Intraday low              
• SUP 2: 117.000 Round number support     
• SUP 3: 116.700 Low Jul 26 2024 (cont)   
• SUP 4: 116.471 76.4% of the Jun 10 - Oct 1 2024 price swing    

A bear cycle in Bobl futures remains in play and last week’s sell-off plus Monday’s extension, reinforces the bearish set-up. Price has recently traded through 117.723, the 76.4% retracement of the Nov 6 - Dec 2 bull cycle. Attention is on key support at 117.180, the Nov 6 low. It has been pierced, a clear break would strengthen the current downtrend. Firm resistance is at 117.870, Jan 3 high. Key short-term resistance is 118.076, the 20-day EMA.         

SCHATZ TECHS: (H5) Fresh Cycle Low             

• RES 4: 107.365 High Dec 12
• RES 3: 107.170 High Dec 20  
• RES 2: 107.032 20-day EMA 
• RES 1: 106.785/965 High Jan 6 / 3     
• PRICE: 106.740 @ 06:11 GMT Jan 7   
• SUP 1: 106.685 Low Jan 6             
• SUP 2: 106.680 Low Nov 20 (cont)  
• SUP 3: 106.645 Low Nov 18 (cont)
• SUP 4: 106.625 2.00 proj of the Dec 2 - 6 - 12 price swing

The current bear cycle in Schatz futures remains intact and recent weakness, including yesterday’s fresh cycle low, reinforces this theme. The Jan 3 sell-off confirmed a resumption of the bear leg and sights are on 106.680, the Nov 20 ‘24 low (cont). Initial firm resistance is seen at 107.032, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of it would highlight a potential reversal. For now, short-term gains would be considered corrective.                                   

GILT TECHS: (H5) Trend Needle Points South        

• RES 4: 93.87 Low Dec 16  
• RES 3: 93.64 High Dec 17  
• RES 2: 93.04 20-day EMA 
• RES 1: 92.88 High Jan 2              
• PRICE: 91.95 @ Close Jan 6 
• SUP 1: 91.64 Low Dec 19 and the bear trigger                         
• SUP 2: 91.58 4.382 proj of the Dec 3 - 4 - 5 minor price swing
• SUP 3: 91.45 4.500 proj of the Dec 3 - 4 - 5 minor price swing
• SUP 4: 91.33 4.618 proj of the Dec 3 - 4 - 5 minor price swing

The trend condition in Gilt futures is unchanged, it remains bearish and recent short-term gains appear to have been corrective. The recent breach of 91.87, the Dec 19 low, confirmed a resumption of the downtrend. Sights are on 91.58 next, a 4.382 projection of the Dec 3 - 4 - 5 minor price swing. Initial resistance is at 92.08, the Jan 2 high. Resistance at the 20-day EMA, is at 93.16, and the average is seen as an important hurdle for bulls.                    

 BTP TECHS: (H5) Bear Cycle Remains In Play                        

• RES 4: 123.34 High Dec 11 and key resistance     
• RES 3: 122.85 High Dec 12  
• RES 2: 121.94 High Dec 13  
• RES 1: 120.45/120.66 High Jan 2 / 20-day EMA   
• PRICE: 119.49 @ Close Jan 6 
• SUP 1: 119.11 Low Nov 18        
• SUP 2: 118.80 76.4% retracement of the Nov 7 - Dec 11 bull cycle  
• SUP 3: 118.51 Low Nov 8
• SUP 4: 117.40 Low Nov 7 and a key support      

The current bear cycle in BTP futures remains in play and the latest fresh cycle low reinforces current conditions. The contract has recently breached the 20-day EMA and sights are on 118.80, a Fibonacci retracement point. Clearance of this level would strengthen the bearish theme. Key resistance and the bull trigger has been defined at 123.34, the Dec 11 high. Initial firm resistance is seen at 120.66, the 20-day EMA.

US‌‌ ‌‌10YR‌‌ ‌‌FUTURE‌‌ ‌‌TECHS:‌‌ (H5) Trend Needle Points South   

• RES 4: 111-20+ High 6 and the bull trigger 
• RES 3: 110-25   High Dec 12   
• RES 2: 110-09   50-day EMA  
• RES 1: 109-10+ 20-day EMA
• PRICE:‌‌ 108-16 @ 18:15 GMT Jan 06
• SUP 1: 108-06+  Low Dec 26
• SUP 2: 108-00   1.500 proj of the Oct 1 - 14 - 16 price swing   
• SUP 3: 107-19+ 1.618 proj of the Oct 1 - 14 - 16 price swing
• SUP 4: 107-04   1.764 proj of the Oct 1 - 14 - 16 price swing

The trend condition in Treasury futures remains bearish. Recent weakness reinforces the current bear cycle - the contract has traded through key short-term support and the bear trigger at 109-02+, the Nov 15 low. The breach confirms a resumption of the downtrend and opens 108.00, a Fibonacci projection. Short-term gains are considered corrective below the 109-10+ 20-day EMA.            

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (H5) Bullish Start To The Week            

• RES 4: 5097.00 High Oct 14
• RES 3: 5080.00 High Oct 15      
• RES 2: 5068.13 0.764 proj of the Nov 21 - Dec 9 - 20 price swing   
• RES 1: 5040.00 High Dec 9 and a key short-term resistance         
• PRICE: 4982.00 @ 06:27 GMT Jan 7  
• SUP 1: 4921.43 50-day EMA       
• SUP 2: 4829.00 Low Dec 20 and key short-term support     
• SUP 3: 4800.87 76.4% retracement of the Nov 21 - Dec 9 bull cycle 
• SUP 4: 4775.00 Low Nov 29 

A bull cycle in the Eurostoxx 50 futures contract remains intact. Yesterday’s strong rally highlights a reversal of the recent corrective pullback and attention is on resistance at 5040.00, the Dec 9 high. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the bull cycle that started on Nov 21 last year. On the downside, initial firm support lies at 4921.43, the 50-day EMA. A break of 4829.00, the Dec 20 low would reinstate a bearish theme.       

E-MINI S&P: (H5) Bear Threat Still Present For Now  

• RES 4: 6194.19 1.236 proj of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 - Sep 9 price swing    
• RES 3: 6178.75 High Dec 6 and key resistance   
• RES 2: 6163.75 High Dec 16  
• RES 1: 6068.25/6107.50 High Jan 6 / High Dec 26         
• PRICE: 6013.50 @ 07:28 GMT Jan 7 
• SUP 1: 5911.25/5866.00 Low Jan 3 / Dec 20       
• SUP 2: 5811.65 38.2% retracement of the Aug 5 - Dec 6 bull leg  
• SUP 3: 5784.00 Low Nov 4 
• SUP 4: 5698.25 50.0% retracement of the Aug 5 - Dec 6 bull leg

A bear threat in the S&P E-Minis contract remains present despite the most recent gains. The reversal lower from the Dec 26 high, highlights the end of the Dec 20 - 26 correction. Attention is on 5866.00, the Dec 20 low and a key S/T support. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bearish theme. Initial firm resistance is 6107.50, the Dec 26 high. A breach of this hurdle would highlight a bull reversal and open key resistance at 6178.75, the Dec 6 high.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (H5) Holding On To Its Recent Gains                   

• RES 4: $83.79 - High Jul 5 and a key resistance 
• RES 3: $81.35 - High Jul 18 
• RES 2: $79.50/80.03 - High Oct 7 / 76.4% of Jul 5 - Sep 10 bear leg
• RES 1: $77.50 - High Jan 6       
• PRICE: $76.20 @ 07:17 GMT Jan 7 
• SUP 1: $74.72- Low Jan 2    
• SUP 2: $73.89 - 20-day EMA 
• SUP 3: $71.59 - Low Dec 20
• SUP 4: $70.52 - Low Dec 6 

Brent futures traded to a fresh cycle high yesterday before pulling back, however, the contract is holding on to its latest gains. Price has breached $74.45, the Nov 22 high, and resistance at $75.43, the Nov 5 high. An extension of the bull leg would refocus attention on key resistance at $79.50, the Oct 7 high. For bears, a reversal lower would open $73.89, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of this average would highlight a stronger reversal.            

WTI TECHS: (G5) Bull Cycle Intact              

• RES 4: $77.90 - High Dec 12 
• RES 3: $77.41 - High Jul 18
• RES 2: $76.41 - High Oct 8 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $74.99 - High Jan 6    
• PRICE: $73.39 @ 07:25 GMT Jan 7 
• SUP 1: $71.79 - Low Jan 2     
• SUP 2: $70.78 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: $68.42 - Low Dec 20 
• SUP 4: $66.71 - Low Dec 6

WTI futures are holding on to the bulk of their recent gains. A stronger reversal to the upside has exposed key short-term resistance at $76.41, the Oct 8 high. A firm resistance at $71.97, the Nov 7 high, has been breached, strengthening a bullish theme. On the downside, a reversal lower would expose support at the 20-day EMA, at $70.78. This average is seen as a key short-term support.             

GOLD TECHS: Support Remains Exposed      

• RES 4: $2762.3 - High Nov 1  
• RES 3: $2730.4 - 76.4% retracement of the Oct 31 - Nov 14 bear leg
• RES 2: $2726.2 - High Dec 12    
• RES 1: $2665.3/2692.8 - High Jan 3 / High Dec 13     
• PRICE: $2641.3 @ 07:30 GMT Jan 7 
• SUP 1: $2596.2/2583.6 - Low Dec 30 / 19   
• SUP 2: $2564.4 - Low Nov 18
• SUP 3: $2536.9 - Low Nov 14 and a key support 
• SUP 4: $2511.1 - Low Sep 12  

Gold is unchanged. A bear threat remains present despite the latest recovery. The yellow metal traded sharply lower on Dec 18 and the move undermines a recent bull theme. A resumption of weakness would open key support at $2536.9, the Nov 14 low. The first firm support to watch is $2583.6, the Dec 19 low. On the upside, a resumption of gains would instead signal scope for a climb towards resistance at $2726.2, the Dec 12 high.                

SILVER TECHS: MA Studies Highlight A Dominant Downtrend                 

• RES 4: $34.903 - High Oct 23 and the bull trigger  
• RES 3: $33.125 - High Nov 1 
• RES 2: $32.338 - High Dec 12 and a key resistance  
• RES 1: $30.507 - 50-day EMA                             
• PRICE: $30.184 @ 08:07 GMT Jan 7  
• SUP 1: $28.748 - Low Dec 19        
• SUP 2: $28.446 - 76.4% retracement of the Aug 8 - Oct 23 bull cycle 
• SUP 3: $27.686 - Low Sep 6 
• SUP 4: $26.451 - Low Aug 8  

A bear cycle in Silver that started Oct 23 remains in play - for now - and recent gains are considered corrective. The metal has recently breached support at $29.642, the Nov 28 low. The break lower opens $28.446, a Fibonacci retracement. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position highlighting a dominant downtrend. Key resistance has been defined at $32.338, the Dec 12 high. A break of this level would signal a reversal.