MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - USD/JPY Trend Pointed South

Price Signal Summary – USD/JPY Trend Remains Pointed South

• A sharp sell-off in the S&P E-Minis contract this week reinforces a short-term bear threat. The contract traded to a fresh short-term cycle low on Tuesday - price has breached support at 5809.00, the Jan 13 low. The trend in the Eurostoxx 50 futures contract remains bullish with price trading closer to the trend highs. Key short-term support has been defined at 5373.00, the Mar 4 low.               
• The trend needle in USDJPY continues to point south. A resumption of weakness would pave the way for an extension towards 146.95, a Fibonacci retracement. Moving average studies remain in a bear-mode set-up. AUDUSD has traded higher this week. The pair has breached both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. A stronger recovery would undermine the recent bearish theme and expose key short-term resistance at 0.6409, the Feb 21 high. A bullish impulsive wave in EURUSD has resulted in strong gains this week. This has resulted in a breach of key short-term resistance at 1.0533, the Jan 27 high, marking a continuation of the reversal that started Feb 3.      
• The trend condition in Gold remains bullish and the recent pullback appears to have been a correction. A stronger rally would refocus attention on the next objective at $2962.2, a Fibonacci projection. This would also open the $3000.0 handle. The current bearish trend condition in WTI futures remains intact and this week’s fresh short-term cycle lows reinforces current conditions. Recent weakness has resulted in a clear breach of support at $70.20, the Feb 6 low. 
• Bund futures remain in a bear-mode condition following yesterday’s steep sell-off. The contract is again trading lower, today, marking an extension of the bearish impulsive wave. Gilt futures remain in a clear mode-mode condition. The contract has this week traded through a key support at 91.79, the Feb 20 low. This level also represented a bear trigger and the breach signals scope for a continuation lower.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE    

EURUSD TECHS: Holding On To Its Gains     

• RES 4: 1.1040 High Oct 4 2024   
• RES 3: 1.0961 76.4% retracement of the Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bear leg
• RES 2: 1.0937 High Nov 5 / 6 2024 
• RES 1: 1.0820 Intraday high 
• PRICE: 1.0805 @ 05:54 GMT Mar 6 
• SUP 1: 1.0602/1.0529 Low Mar 5 / High Feb 26   
• SUP 2: 1.0460 50-day EMA and a short-term pivot level      
• SUP 3: 1.0360 Low Feb 28 and a key support     
• SUP 4: 1.0317 Low Feb 12 

A bullish impulsive wave in EURUSD has resulted in strong gains this week. This has resulted in a breach of key short-term resistance at 1.0533, the Jan 27 high, marking a continuation of the reversal that started Feb 3. The pair is holding on to its gains. Note that 1.0804, 61.8% of the Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bear leg, has been cleared. Sights are on 1.0937, the Nov 5 / 6 2024 high. Initial key support to watch lies at 1.0460, the 50-day EMA.   

GBPUSD TECHS: Bull Cycle Remains In Play  

• RES 4: 1.3119 76.4% retracement of the Sep 26 ‘24 - Jan 13 bear leg
• RES 3: 1.3048 High Nov 6 ‘24
• RES 2: 1.2990 High Nov 8 2024
• RES 1: 1.2924 61.8% retracement of the Sep 26 ‘24 - Jan 13 bear leg
• PRICE: 1.2910 @ 06:17 GMT Mar 6 
• SUP 1: 1.2768 Low Mar 5     
• SUP 2: 1.2624 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.2568 50-day EMA and a short-term pivot support  
• SUP 4: 1.2440 Low Feb 13      

The trend in GBPUSD remains bullish and this week’s strong gains reinforce this theme. Note that MA studies have recently crossed into a bull-mode position, highlighting a potentially stronger bull cycle. The pair is approaching 1.2924, the 61.8% retracement of the Sep 26 ‘24 - Jan 13 bear leg. A break of this level would open 1.2990, the Nov 8 2024 high. Initial firm support to watch is 1.2568, the 50-day EMA. A pullback would be considered corrective.                

EURGBP TECHS: Northbound             

• RES 4: 0.8474 High Jan 20 and a key resistance     
• RES 3: 0.8462 High Jan 24 
• RES 2: 0.8385 76.4% retracement of the Jan 20 - Mar 3 bear leg
• RES 1: 0.8385 61.8% retracement of the Jan 20 - Mar 3 bear leg    
• PRICE: 0.8376 @ 06:42 GMT Mar 6 
• SUP 1: 0.8324 50-day EMA    
• SUP 2: 0.8299/41 Low Mar 5 / 3 and a near-term bear trigger 
• SUP 3: 0.8223 Low Dec 19 and a key support  
• SUP 4: 0.8203 Low Mar 7 ‘22 and a lowest point of a multi-year range

A strong rally in EURGBP from its recent lows highlights a short-term reversal. The cross has traded through both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. The impulsive rally over the past 2 trading sessions signals scope for an extension towards 0.8385 and 0.8419, Fibonacci retracement points. On the downside, initial support is seen at 0.8324, the 50-day EMA. Key short-term support has been defined at 0.8241, the Mar 3 low.        

USDJPY TECHS: Trend Needle Points South  

• RES 4: 154.80 High Dec 12 ‘24 and a key resistance     
• RES 3: 152.56 50-day EMA 
• RES 2: 151.30 High Mar 3 and a key near-term resistance  
• RES 1: 150.18 High Mar 5  
• PRICE: 148.83 @ 06:55 GMT Mar 6 
• SUP 1: 148.10/01 Low Mar 4 / Low Oct 9 ‘24 
• SUP 2: 146.95 61.8% retracement of the Sep 16 ‘24 - Jan 10 bull leg
• SUP 3: 146.55 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 4: 145.92 Low Oct 4 ‘24

The trend needle in USDJPY continues to point south. A resumption of weakness would pave the way for an extension towards 146.95, a Fibonacci retracement. Moving average studies remain in a bear-mode set-up, highlighting a dominant downtrend and bearish market sentiment. Key short-term resistance is 151.30, the Mar 3 high. Clearance of this level is required to signal a base.    

EURJPY TECHS: Bull Cycle Extends      

• RES 4: 164.08 High Jan 24 and a key resistance        
• RES 3: 162.70 High Jan 28      
• RES 2: 161.80 High Jan 30  
• RES 1: 161.28 Intraday high
• PRICE: 160.63 @ 07:01 GMT Mar 6 
• SUP 1: 159.56/158.23 50- and 20-day EMA values  
• SUP 2: 155.60 Low Mar 4 
• SUP 3: 154.80 Low Feb 28 and a bear trigger 
• SUP 4: 154.42 Low Aug 5 ‘24 and key medium-term support

This week’s strong rally in EURJPY undermines a recent bearish threat and instead highlights a potential reversal. The cross has again traded to a fresh short-term cycle high, today, and pierced resistance at 161.19, the Feb 13 high. A clear break of this level would strengthen a bullish condition. Initial support to watch is 158.23, the 20-day EMA. Key support has been defined at 154.80, the Feb 28 low.    

AUDUSD TECHS: Recovery Extends   

• RES 4: 0.6429 High Dec 12 ‘24
• RES 3: 0.6414 38.2% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Feb 3 bear leg              
• RES 2: 0.6409 High Feb 21 and a bull trigger 
• RES 1: 0.6357 High Feb 26 
• PRICE: 0.6330 @ 08:02 GMT Mar 6
• SUP 1: 0.6294/6187 20-day EMA / Low Mar 4
• SUP 2: 0.6171/6088 Low Feb 4 / 3 and a key support 
• SUP 3: 0.6045 1.500 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
• SUP 4: 0.6000 Round number support

AUDUSD has traded higher this week. The pair has breached both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. A stronger recovery would undermine the recent bearish theme and expose key short-term resistance at 0.6409, the Feb 21 high. Clearance of this hurdle would strengthen a bull cycle. On the downside, a move below Tuesday's 0.6187 low is required to reinstate a bear threat and open the bear trigger at 0.6088, the Feb 3 low.   

USDCAD TECHS: Monitoring Support    

• RES 4: 1.4793 High Feb 3 and key resistance
• RES 3: 1.4700 Round number resistance 
• RES 2: 1.4641 76.4% retracement of the Feb 3 - 14 bear leg 
• RES 1: 1.4450/4548 High Mar 5 / 61.8% of the Feb 3 - 14 bear leg
• PRICE: 1.4356 @ 08:07 GMT Mar 6 
• SUP 1: 1.4342/4300 Low Mar 5 / 50-day EMA  
• SUP 2: 1.4151/4107 Low Feb 14 / 50.0% of Sep 25 - Feb 3 bull run
• SUP 3: 1.4011 Low Dec 5 ‘24
• SUP 4: 1.3944 61.8% retracement of the Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bull cycle

The USDCAD correction / bull cycle that started Feb 14 remains in play for now and the latest pullback appears corrective. Gains earlier this week reinforce current conditions and expose 1.4548, a Fibonacci retracement point. The short-term bear trigger has been defined at 1.4151, the Feb 14 low. Initial firm support to watch lies at 1.4301, the 50-day EMA. A break of this average would highlight an early reversal signal.  

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M5) Bearish Impulsive Wave Extends             

• RES 4: 130.40 Low Feb 19               
• RES 3: 129.96 High Mar 5     
• RES 2: 129.41 Low Jan 14 
• RES 1: 127.71 Intraday high                 
• PRICE: 127.30 @ 05:32 GMT Mar 6 
• SUP 1: 127.14 Low Mar 6    
• SUP 2: 126.84 2.382 proj of the Feb 5 - 19 - 28 price swing            
• SUP 3: 126.56 2.500 proj of the Feb 5 - 19 - 28 price swing 
• SUP 4: 126.00 Round number support 

Bund futures remain in a bear-mode condition following yesterday’s steep sell-off. The contract is again trading lower, today, marking an extension of the bearish impulsive wave. The move down signals scope for an extension towards 126.84 next, a Fibonacci projection. Further out, 126.00 is now within range. The contract is oversold, a recovery or a pause, would allow this condition to unwind. Initial firm resistance is seen at 129.41, the Jan 14 low.                                 

BOBL TECHS: (M5) Oversold But Remains Bearish    

• RES 4: 118.310 Low Mar 3        
• RES 3: 118.090 High Mar 5          
• RES 2: 117.850 Low Feb 20     
• RES 1: 116.720 Intraday high                                
• PRICE: 116.540 @ 05:53 GMT Mar 6 
• SUP 1: 116.470 Intraday low    
• SUP 2: 116.395 3.500 proj of the minor Feb 28 - Mar 3 - 4 price swing
• SUP 3: 116.309 3.618 proj of the minor Feb 28 - Mar 3 - 4 price swing 
• SUP 4: 116.202 3.764 proj of the minor Feb 28 - Mar 3 - 4 price swing     

Bobl futures have traded sharply lower this week and price action is likely to remain volatile near-term. A key short-term support at 117.850, the Feb 20 low, has been cleared. The subsequent impulsive sell-off signals scope for an extension towards the 116.000 handle. The contract is in oversold territory. A recovery would allow this to unwind. Firm resistance is seen at 117.850, the Feb 20 low.                

SCHATZ TECHS: (M5) Bearish Mode                  

• RES 4: 107.120 High Mar 4 and key resistance    
• RES 3: 106.905 High Mar 5     
• RES 2: 106.735 Low Feb 19   
• RES 1: 106.600 Round number resistance          
• PRICE: 106.465 @ 06:21 GMT Mar 6    
• SUP 1: 106.405 Intraday low  
• SUP 2: 106.350 2.000% retracement proj of the Feb 19 - Mar 4  
• SUP 3: 106.259 2.236% retracement proj of the Feb 19 - Mar 4 
• SUP 4: 106.203 2.382% retracement proj of the Feb 19 - Mar 4   

Schatz futures remain in a bear-mode condition following the latest steep impulsive sell-off. The contract has breached a key support at 106.735, the Feb 19 low. Clearance of this level strengthens a bearish theme and signals scope for a deeper sell-off, towards 106.350 next, a Fibonacci retracement. The current bear cycle is in oversold territory and a recovery would allow this condition to unwind. Initial firm resistance is seen at 106.735, the Feb 19 low.                                                

GILT TECHS: (M5) Downtrend Remains Intact But Is Oversold 

• RES 4: 93.06 Low Mar 4 and a gap high on the daily chart   
• RES 3: 92.41 High Mar5       
• RES 2: 91.79 Low Feb   
• RES 1: 91.56 Low Mar 5                   
• PRICE: 91.07 @ 08:11 GMT Mar 6
• SUP 1: 90.71 Intraday low                                     
• SUP 2: 90.49 1.618 proj of the Feb 6 - 20 - Mar 4 price swing  
• SUP 3: 90.19 1.764 proj of the Feb 6 - 20 - Mar 4 price swing   
• SUP 4: 89.71 2.000 proj of the Feb 6 - 20 - Mar 4 price swing 

Gilt futures remain in a clear mode-mode condition. The contract has this week traded through a key support at 91.79, the Feb 20 low. This level also represented a bear trigger and the breach signals scope for a continuation lower, with sights on 90.49 next, a Fibonacci projection. The downtrend is oversold, a recovery would allow this set-up to unwind. Initial firm resistance is seen at 91.79, the Feb 20 low.                                

BTP TECHS: (M5) Breaches Key Support                            

• RES 4: 120.39 High Feb 28      
• RES 3: 119.31 Low Mar 4 and a gap high on the daily chart   
• RES 2: 118.56 High Mar 5   
• RES 1: 116.75 Low Mar 5      
• PRICE: 116.51 @ 07:14 Mar 6 
• SUP 1: 116.09 Intraday low 
• SUP 2: 115.96 2.382 proj of the Feb 7 - 19 - 28 price swing  
• SUP 3: 115.52 2.618 proj of the Feb 7 - 19 - 28 price swing
• SUP 4: 114.81 3.000 proj of the Feb 7 - 19 - 28 price swing   

BTP futures remain in a clear bear-mode condition following this week’s steep sell-off. The move down has resulted in a breach of key support at 116.78, the Jan 14 low. The break strengthens a bearish theme and opens 115.96 next, a Fibonacci projection. The downtrend is in oversold territory, a recovery would allow this set-up to unwind. Initial firm resistance is seen at Wednesday’s 118.56 high.            

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (H5) Trend Structure Remains Bullish   

• RES 4: 5611.50 2.500 proj of the Nov 21 - Dec 9 - 20 ‘24 price swing
• RES 3: 5606.00 3.000 proj of the Dec 20 ‘24 - Jan 8 - 13 price swing
• RES 2: 5600.00 Round number resistance   
• RES 1: 5575.00 High Mar 3 and the bull trigger             
• PRICE: 5552.00 @ 06:35 GMT Mar 6 
• SUP 1: 5433.32/5373.00 20-day EMA / Low Mar 4              
• SUP 2: 5328.00 Low Feb 106 
• SUP 3: 5290.26 50-day EMA  
• SUP 4: 5112.00 Low Feb 3 and a key support   

The trend in the Eurostoxx 50 futures contract remains bullish with price trading closer to the trend highs. Key short-term support has been defined at 5373.00, the Mar 4 low. A reversal lower and a break of this level would signal scope for a deeper retracement and expose the 50-day EMA at 5290.26. For bulls, a continuation higher would open the 5600.00 handle next.     

E-MINI S&P: (H5) Bear Threat Remains Present   

• RES 4: 6178.75 High Dec 6 ‘24 and key resistance   
• RES 3: 6166.50 High Jan 19
• RES 2: 6013.11 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 5884.00/5924.0 High Mar 4 / Low Feb 25                 
• PRICE: 5848.50 @ 06:57 GMT Mar 6  
• SUP 1: 5744.00 Low Mar 4                
• SUP 2: 5730.00 Low Sep 18 ‘24
• SUP 3: 5698.25 50.0% retracement of the Aug 5 - Dec 6 ‘24 bull leg
• SUP 4: 5658.00 Low Sep 12 ‘24     

A sharp sell-off in the S&P E-Minis contract this week reinforces a short-term bear threat. The contract traded to a fresh short-term cycle low on Tuesday - price has breached support at 5809.00, the Jan 13 low. This highlights a stronger reversal and a double top pattern on the daily scale. A resumption of weakness would open 5698.25, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm resistance to watch is 6019.64, the 50-day EMA.     

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (K5) Bear Remain In The Driver’s Seat

• RES 4: $79.98 -  High Jan 15 and a reversal trigger  
• RES 3: $76.78 - High Feb 11 and a bull trigger 
• RES 2: $74.36 - 50-day EMA and a pivot resistance 
• RES 1: $71.92 Low Feb 26            
• PRICE: $69.74 @ 07:00 GMT Mar 6   
• SUP 1: $68.33 - Low Mar 5 
• SUP 2: $67.87 - Low Sep 10 ‘24 and a key medium-term support
• SUP 3: $66.36 1.618 proj of the Jan 15 - Feb 4 - 11 price swing
• SUP 4: $63.90 2.000 proj of the Jan 15 - Feb 4 - 11 price swing

Brent futures remain in a clear downtrend and this week’s bearish price action reinforces current conditions. The sharp sell-off has resulted in a breach of a number of support points and price has delivered a break of the $70.00 handle. The move down maintains the bear price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The focus is on $67.87, the Sep 10 2024 low. On the upside, initial firm resistance is seen at $74.16, the 50-day EMA.  

WTI TECHS: (J5) Southbound                   

• RES 4: $77.86 - High Jan 15 and the bull trigger   
• RES 3: $73.33 - High Feb 11 and key resistance 
• RES 2: $70.86 - 50-day EMA  
• RES 1: $68.36 - Low Feb 26  
• PRICE: $66.87 @ 07:26 GMT Mar 6
• SUP 1: $65.22 - Low Mar 5  
• SUP 2: $63.61 - Low Sep 10 ‘24 and a key medium-term support
• SUP 3: $60.00 - Psychological round number
• SUP 4: $58.01 - 2.00 proj of the Jan 15 - Feb 6 - 11 price swing   

The current bearish trend condition in WTI futures remains intact and this week’s fresh short-term cycle lows reinforces current conditions. Recent weakness has resulted in a clear breach of support at $70.20, the Feb 6 low. This confirmed a resumption of the downtrend that started Jan 15 and has paved the way for an extension towards $63.61 next, the Oct 10 ‘24 low. Key short-term pivot resistance is seen at $70.86, the 50-day EMA.          

GOLD TECHS: Outlook Remains Bullish                 

• RES 4: $3000.0 - Psychological round number   
• RES 3: $2970.6 - 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: $2962.2 - 2.00 proj of the Nov 14 - Dec 12 - 19 price swing
• RES 1: $2930.1/2956.2 - High Feb 26 / 24 and the bull trigger 
• PRICE: $2919.8 @ 07:19 GMT Mar 6 
• SUP 1: $2884.5/2832.7 - 20-day EMA / Low Feb 28  
• SUP 2: $2816.6 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $2758.3 - Low Jan 30
• SUP 4: $2730.6 - Low Jan 27 

The trend condition in Gold remains bullish and the recent pullback appears to have been a correction. A stronger rally would refocus attention on the next objective at $2962.2, a Fibonacci projection. This would also open the $3000.0 handle. On the downside, a resumption of weakness would instead suggest scope for a deeper correction and expose support around the 50-day EMA, at $2816.6. The 50-day average marks a key support.                    

SILVER TECHS: Bullish Trend Signals    

• RES 4: $35.736 - 1.236 proj of the Feb 14 - Apr 12 - May 2 ‘24 swing 
• RES 3: $34.903 - High Oct 23 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: $34.000 - Round number resistance  
• RES 1: $32.716/33.397 - High Mar 5 / High Feb 14 and the bull trigger                                 
• PRICE: $32.553 @ 08:11 GMT Mar 6    
• SUP 1: $31.480/30.815 - 50-day EMA / Low Feb 28          
• SUP 2: $30.691/29.704 - Low Feb 3 / Low Jan 27 
• SUP 3: $28.748 - Low Dec 19 and bear trigger
• SUP 4: $28.446 - 76.4% retracement of the Aug 8 - Oct 23 bull cycle 

Recent weakness in Silver appears to have been a correction and this week’s strong gains reinforce this theme. A continuation higher would refocus attention on the bull trigger at $33.397, the Feb 14 high. Clearance of this level would resume the uptrend. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode set-up, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Key support to watch lies at $31.480, the 50-day EMA, and $30.815, the Feb 28 low.