MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - USDJPY Testing Higher Levels

Price Signal Summary – USDJPY Testing Higher Levels

• The trend condition in S&P E-Minis remains bullish and the bear leg since the Oct 30 high appears to have been a correction. The contract has managed to find support below the 50-day EMA, currently at 6722.19, and a key level. A medium-term bull trend in EUROSTOXX 50 futures remains intact and this week’s gains reinforce bullish conditions. The contract has traded through resistance at 5742.00, the Oct 29 high to confirm a resumption of the uptrend.
• The trend structure in USDJPY remains bullish and this week’s gains reinforce current conditions. Today’s climb has delivered a print above 154.48, the Nov 4 high and bull trigger. AUDUSD is holding on to this week’s gains. For now, recent strength appears corrective, however, the pair has pierced an important short-term resistance at 0.6536, the 50-day EMA. USDCAD is trading below last week’s high. The latest pullback highlights a potential bearish development and a possible reversal. Resistance at the top of a bull channel, currently at 1.4155, remains intact.
• The downleg in Gold since Oct 20 appears to have been a correction and has allowed an overbought condition to unwind. Recent gains suggest the correction is over. Price remains above a key support at the 50-day EMA, at $3899.2. The pullback in WTI futures since Oct 24, appears to be a flag formation - a bullish continuation pattern. This suggests that an upward corrective cycle is intact for now.
• Bund futures are trading above their recent lows. A short-term bear cycle remains intact and Monday’s fresh cycle low reinforces the bear theme. The contract has cleared a number of important support points. The trend theme in Gilt futures remains bullish and this week’s strong bounce - so far - reinforces a bull theme. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend.  

[CROSS ASSET]: Refreshing the MNI Tech Trend Monitor, Adding Gold, Silver, JPY

• We refresh our Global Tech Trend Monitor, adding longer-term techs for Spot Gold, Silver and USDJPY, while refreshing levels for UK Gilt 10y and 30y yields as well as the Europe Banking Stock Index (SX7E).
• See full document here:  https://emedia.marketnews.com/marketnewsintl/MNITechTrendMonitorOct25.pdf

FOREIGN EXCHANGE    

EURUSD TECHS: Corrective Cycle Still In Play        

• RES 4: 1.1728 High Oct 17
• RES 3: 1.1669 High Oct 28 and key resistance 
• RES 2: 1.1623 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.1606 High Nov 11
• PRICE: 1.1580 @ 06:06 GMT Nov 12
• SUP 1: 1.1530/1469 Low Nov 7 / 5 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 2: 1.1425 1.500 proj of the Oct 17 - 22 - 28 price swing
• SUP 3: 1.1392 Low Aug 1 and bear trigger 
• SUP 4: 1.1313 Low May 30

EURUSD traded higher Tuesday. The pair has breached an initial important resistance at 1.1584, the 20-day EMA. The break paves the way for an extension of the corrective cycle, towards the 50-day EMA, at 1.1623. A clear break of the 50-day average would highlight a potentially stronger bull cycle. On the downside, a reversal would refocus attention on the bear trigger at 1.1469, the Nov 5 low. Clearance of this level resumes the downtrend.  

GBPUSD TECHS: Resistance Remains Intact         

• RES 4: 1.3471 High Oct 17 and a key short-term resistance    
• RES 3: 1.3327 50-day EMA   
• RES 2: 1.3223 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.3191 High Nov 10
• PRICE: 1.3132 @ 06:17 GMT Nov 12
• SUP 1: 1.3010 Low Nov 4 and 5 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 2: 1.2971 1.382 proj of the Sep 17 - 25 - Oct 1 price swing
• SUP 3: 1.2945 50.0% retracement of the Jan 13 - Jul 1 bull leg
• SUP 4: 1.2877 1.618 proj of the Sep 17 - 25 - Oct 1 price swing          

The trend outlook in GBPUSD remains bearish and recent gains still appear corrective. The move higher has allowed an oversold trend condition to unwind. Firm short-term resistance to watch is at the 20-day EMA, at 1.3223. Clearance of this hurdle would signal scope for an extension towards the 50-day EMA, at 1.3327. For bears, a resumption of the downtrend would open 1.2971, a Fibonacci projection.                  

EURGBP TECHS: Bullish Outlook

• RES 4: 0.8865 1.764 proj of the Sep 15 - 25 - Oct 8 price swing  
• RES 3: 0.8848 1.618 proj of the Sep 15 - 25 - Oct 8 price swing  
• RES 2: 0.8835 High May 3 2023
• RES 1: 0.8830 High Nov 5 
• PRICE: 0.8816 @ 06:35 GMT Nov 12
• SUP 1: 0.8763 Low Nov 3   
• SUP 2: 0.8761 20-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 0.8722 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 0.8656 Low Oct 8 and a key support  

The trend cycle in EURGBP remains bullish and the cross is trading closer to its recent highs. Recent gains confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and this maintains a bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on 0.8835, the May 3 2023 high. Initial support lies at 0.8763, the Nov 3 low, with the 20-day EMA, at 0.8761. Note that the trend is overbought, a pullback would be considered corrective.   

USDJPY TECHS: Bullish Trend Sequence

• RES 4: 156.75 High Jan 23 
• RES 3: 155.89 High Feb 3
• RES 2: 155.53 2.00% retracement of the Jan 10 - Apr 22 bear leg
• RES 1: 154.80 High Feb 12
• PRICE: 154.64 @ 06:52 GMT Nov 12 
• SUP 1: 152.84 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 151.54 Low Oct 29   
• SUP 3: 151.03 50-day EMA  
• SUP 4: 150.47 Low Oct 21 

The trend structure in USDJPY remains bullish and this week’s gains reinforce current conditions. Today’s climb has delivered a print above 154.48, the Nov 4 high and bull trigger. This confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on 154.80, the Feb 12 high and 155.35, a Fibonacci projection. Initial support to watch lies at 152.84, the 20-day EMA.   

EURJPY TECHS: Fresh Cycle High 

• RES 4: 180.37 1.500 proj of the Jul 31 - Sep 29 - Oct 2 price swing  
• RES 3: 180.00 Psychological round number
• RES 2: 179.73 1.382 proj of the Jul 31 - Sep 29 - Oct 2 price swing
• RES 1: 179.22 Intraday high 
• PRICE: 179.22 @08:14 GMT Nov 12 
• SUP 1: 177.05/175.52 20- and 50-day EMA values
• SUP 2: 174.82 Low Oct 17 
• SUP 3: 173.98 Bull channel support drawn from the Feb 28 low   
• SUP 4: 173.92 Low Oct 6 and a gap high on the daily chart  

The trend in EURJPY remains bullish and today’s gains reinforce current conditions. The cross has cleared the bull trigger at 178.82, the Oct 30 high, to confirm a resumption of the medium-term uptrend. Note too that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on 179.73, a Fibonacci projection, and the 180.00 psychological handle. First support lies at 177.05, the 20-day EMA.    

AUDUSD TECHS: Testing Resistance At The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 0.6707 High Sep 17 and a bull trigger
• RES 3: 0.6661 2.0% 10-dma Envelope
• RES 2: 0.6644 76.4% retracement of the Sep-Oct bear leg  
• RES 1: 0.6537/0.6618 50-day EMA / High Oct 29
• PRICE: 0.6536 @ 08:02 GMT Nov 12 
• SUP 1: 0.6459 Low Nov 5
• SUP 2: 0.6440 Low Oct 14 and key support 
• SUP 3: 0.6415 Low Aug 21 / 22 and a bear trigger
• SUP 4: 0.6373 Low Jun 23   

AUDUSD is holding on to this week’s gains. For now, recent strength appears corrective, however, the pair has pierced an important short-term resistance at 0.6536, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average would strengthen a bullish case and signal scope for a stronger recovery, potentially towards 0.6618, the Oct 29 high. For bears, a resumption of weakness would refocus attention on the next key support at 0.6440, the Oct 14 low.       

USDCAD TECHS: Short-Term Bear Threat Still Present     

• RES 4: 1.4274 High Apr 9  
• RES 3: 1.4200 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 1.4167 50.0% retracement of the Feb 3 - Jun 16 bear leg
• RES 1: 1.4140/55 High Nov 5 / Channel top drawn from Jul 23 low 
• PRICE: 1.4009 @ 08:09 GMT Nov 12
• SUP 1: 1.4001 Low Nov 10
• SUP 2: 1.3957 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 1.3888 Low Oct 29 and a key support  
• SUP 4: 1.3878 Bull channel base drawn from the Jul 23 low

USDCAD is trading below last week’s high. The latest pullback highlights a potential bearish development and a possible reversal. Resistance at the top of a bull channel, currently at 1.4155, remains intact. The bull channel is drawn from the Jul 23 low. The pair has pierced support at the 20-day EMA, at 1.4021. This exposes the 50-day EMA at 1.3957. For bulls, a break of the channel top is required to confirm a resumption of the uptrend.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (Z5) Bear Leg Remains Intact                 

• RES 4: 130.59 High Oct 17 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 130.07 High Oct 24
• RES 2: 129.73 High Oct 28
• RES 1: 129.31 20-day EMA     
• PRICE: 129.19 @ 05:51 GMT Nov 12 
• SUP 1: 128.70 Low Oct 10     
• SUP 2: 128.52 76.4% retracement of the Sep 25 - Oct 17 bull leg
• SUP 3: 128.25 Low Oct 7
• SUP 4: 127.88 Low Sep 25 and key support  

Bund futures are trading above their recent lows. A short-term bear cycle remains intact and Monday’s fresh cycle low reinforces the bear theme. The contract has cleared a number of important support points; the 50-day EMA, at 129.14, and 128.92, the 61.8% retracement of the Sep 25 - Oct 17 bull leg. Scope is seen for an extension towards 128.52, the 76.4% retracement. Resistance is at 129.31, the 20-day EMA.              

BOBL TECHS: (Z5) Bear Cycle     

• RES 4: 118.970 High Oct 17 and key resistance       
• RES 3: 118.770 High Oct 22   
• RES 2: 118.360/600 High Oct 28 / 24
• RES 1: 118.201 20-day EMA.   
• PRICE: 118.110 @ 05:40 GMT Nov 12
• SUP 1: 117.960/900 Low Nov 10 / Low Oct 10  
• SUP 2: 117.824 76.4% retracement of the Sep 25 - Oct 17 bull cycle   
• SUP 3: 117.710 Low Oct 6   
• SUP 4: 117.630 Low Oct 1 

The short-term trend condition in Bobl futures remains bearish for now. The contract traded to a fresh cycle low Monday, reinforcing a bear theme. Price is through 118.043, 61.8% of the Sep 25 - Oct 17 bull cycle. This signals scope for an extension towards 117.824, the 76.4% Fibonacci projection. Initial resistance is seen at 118.195, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of the EMA would signal a possible reversal.    

SCHATZ TECHS: (Z5) Bearish Trend Theme       

• RES 4: 107.348 50.0% retracement of Apr 7 - Sep 25 bear leg (cont) 
• RES 3: 107.320 High Oct 17 and the bull trigger 
• RES 2: 107.235 High Oct 22 
• RES 1: 107.089/175 50-day EMA / High Oct 24   
• PRICE: 107.020 @ 06:07 GMT Nov 12
• SUP 1: 107.005 Intraday low   
• SUP 2: 106.995 Low  Oct 8   
• SUP 3: 106.965 Low Oct 6
• SUP 4: 106.920 Low Sep 25 and a key support  

A short-term bear cycle in Schatz futures remains intact - for now. The downleg that started Oct 17 is considered corrective and has allowed a recent overbought trend condition to unwind. Note that 107.014, 76.4% of the Sep 25 - Oct 17 bull leg and the next important support, has been pierced. A clear break of it would signal scope for a deeper retracement and open 106.995, the Oct 8 low. Initial resistance is at 107.089, the 50-day EMA.           

GILT TECHS: (Z5) Trend Needle Points North             

• RES 4: 94.60 1.764proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 26 price swing 
• RES 3: 94.24 1.618 proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 26 price swing        
• RES 2: 94.00 Round number resistance 
• RES 1: 93.98 High Nov 4 and the bull trigger  
• PRICE: 93.87 @ Close Nov 11
• SUP 1: 93.09/75 20-day EMA / Low Nov 10      
• SUP 2: 92.38 Low Oct 20
• SUP 3: 92.36 50-day EMA 
• SUP 4: 91.82 High Sep 11   

The trend theme in Gilt futures remains bullish and this week’s strong bounce - so far - reinforces a bull theme. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on the bull trigger at 93.98, the Nov 4 high. A clear break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open 94.24, a Fibonacci projection. Support to watch lies at 93.09, the 20-day EMA.        

BTP TECHS: (Z5) Bull Flag       

• RES 4: 123.14 1.764 proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 25 price swing
• RES 3: 122.81 1.618 proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 25 price swing
• RES 2: 122.53 1.500 proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 25 price swing
• RES 1: 121.94 High Oct 17 / 22 and the bull trigger  
• PRICE: 121.34 @ Close Nov 11
• SUP 1: 120.74 High Aug 5 and a recent breakout level          
• SUP 2: 120.71 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 120.13 Low Oct 10 
• SUP 4: 119.48 Low Oct 7

The trend set-up in BTP futures is unchanged and conditions remain bullish. Recent weakness appears corrective - the move down since Oct 22 appears to be flag formation, a bullish continuation pattern. Note too the moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. The bull trigger is 121.94, the Oct 17 / 24 high. Initial firm support to watch is 120.74, the Aug 5 high.                  

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (Z5) Resumes Its Uptrend 

• RES 4: 5837.00 Bull channel top drawn from the Aug 1 low
• RES 3: 5800.00 Round number resistance  
• RES 2: 5777.41 1.382 proj of the Aug 1 - 22 - Sep 2 price swing
• RES 1: 5769.00 Intraday high       
• PRICE: 5761.00 @ 07:57 GMT Nov 12
• SUP 1: 5655.99/5586.75 20- and 50-day EMA values   
• SUP 2: 5582.50 Bear channel base drawn from the Aug 1 low 
• SUP 3: 5527.70 38.2% retracement of the Aug 1 - Oct 29 bull leg
• SUP 4: 5497.00 Low Oct 14     

A medium-term bull trend in EUROSTOXX 50 futures remains intact and this week’s gains reinforce bullish conditions. The contract has traded through resistance at 5742.00, the Oct 29 high to confirm a resumption of the uptrend. This paves the way for an extension towards 5777.41 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, initial firm support is seen at 5655.99, the 20-day EMA.           

E-MINI S&P: (Z5) Bullish Recovery Extends           

• RES 4: 7000.00 Psychological round number 
• RES 3: 6993.12 3.500 proj of the Aug 20 - 28 - Sep 2 price swing
• RES 2: 6974.04 3.382 proj of the Aug 20 - 28 - Sep 2 price swing 
• RES 1: 6909.50/6953.75 High Nov 3 / High Oct 30 and bull trigger  
• PRICE: 6892.00 @ 07:24 GMT Nov 12
• SUP 1: 6808.31/6655.70 20-day EMA / Low Nov 7 & key S/T support 
• SUP 2: 6571.25 Low Oct 17
• SUP 3: 6540.25 Low Oct 10 and a key support 
• SUP 4: 6476.62 23.6% retracement of the Apr 7 - Oct 30 bull cycle  

The trend condition in S&P E-Minis remains bullish and the bear leg since the Oct 30 high appears to have been a correction. The contract has managed to find support below the 50-day EMA, currently at 6722.19, and a key level. Activity on Nov 7 highlights a potential reversal signal - a bullish doji candle. This defines key support at 6655.50, the Oct 7 low. Sights are on 6953.75, Oct 30 high and bull trigger.      

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (F6) Short-Term Resistance Remains In Play          

• RES 4: $71.45 - 76.4% retracement of the Jun 23 - Oct 20 bear leg  
• RES 3: $70.69 - High Jul 30
• RES 2: $69.29 - High Sep 26 and a key resistance 
• RES 1: $65.98 - High Oct 9 
• PRICE: $64.95 @ 07:09 GMT Nov 12
• SUP 1: $62.84/59.97 - Low Nov 6 / 20 and the bear trigger  
• SUP 2: $58.72 - Low May 5
• SUP 3: $57.99 - Low Apr 9 and a key support
• SUP 4: $56.05 - 2.00 proj of the Jul 30 - Aug 13 - Sep 26 price swing 

Activity since Oct 24 in Brent futures appears to be a flag formation - a bullish continuation pattern. This suggests that a corrective cycle remains intact - for now. Price has recently traded through the 50-day EMA, at $64.58. Clearance of this hurdle signals scope for a stronger recovery. The next resistance to monitor is $65.98, the Oct 9 high. A clear breach of it would expose a key resistance at $69.29, the Sep 26 high. Key support lies at $59.97, Oct 20 low.       

WTI TECHS: (Z5) Corrective Phase Intact       

• RES 4: $71.47 - High Jun 23 and a key medium-term resistance 
• RES 3: $67.68 - High Jul 30
• RES 2: $65.77/68.43 - High Sep 26 and key resistance 
• RES 1: $62.59 - High Oct 24    
• PRICE: $60.77 @ 07:18 GMT Nov 12 
• SUP 1: $58.83/55.96 - Low Nov 6 / Low Oct 20 and bear trigger
• SUP 2: $54.85 - Low May 5
• SUP 3: $54.16 - Low Apr 9 and a key support
• SUP 4: $53.23 - 1.764 proj of the Jul 30 - Aug 13 - Sep 26 price swing   

The pullback in WTI futures since Oct 24, appears to be a flag formation - a bullish continuation pattern. This suggests that an upward corrective cycle is intact for now. Price has recently traded through the 50-day EMA, at $60.85, signalling scope for a stronger recovery. Note too that resistance at $62.34, the Oct 8 high, has been pierced. A clear move through it would expose key resistance at $65.77, Sep 26 high. The bear trigger is $55.96, the Oct 20 low.    

GOLD TECHS: Recovery Highlights The End Of A Corrective Phase         

• RES 4: $4404.9 - 3.500 proj of the May 15 - Jun 16 - 30 price swing
• RES 3: $4400.0 - Round number resistance
• RES 2: $4381.5 - High Oct 20 and bull trigger
• RES 1: $4161.4 - High Oct 22                 
• PRICE: $4122.0 @ 07:25 GMT Nov 12 
• SUP 1: $3998.7 - Low Nov 10  
• SUP 2: $3899.2 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $3800.00 Round number support 
• SUP 4: $3751.3 - 50.0% retracement of the May 15 - Oct 20 bull leg

The downleg in Gold since Oct 20 appears to have been a correction and has allowed an overbought condition to unwind. Recent gains suggest the correction is over. Price remains above a key support at the 50-day EMA, at $3899.2. Clearance of this EMA would signal scope for a deeper retracement. Initial resistance is at $4161.4, the Oct 22 high. A stronger recovery would refocus attention on $4381.5, the Oct 20 high and bull trigger.                    

SILVER TECHS: Bull Cycle Intact     

• RES 4: $56.153 2.500 proj of the Aug 20 - Sep 16 - 17 price swing   
• RES 3: $55.444 2.382 proj of the Aug 20 - Sep 16 - 17 price swing
• RES 2: $54.480 - High Oct 17 and the bull trigger 
• RES 1: $82.374 - 76.4% retracement of Oct 17 - 28 bear leg    
• PRICE: $51.573 @ 08:11 GMT Nov 12
• SUP 1: $46.670/45.557 - 50-day EMA / Low Oct 28  
• SUP 2: $41.135 - Low Sep 17
• SUP 3: $40.000 - Round number support 
• SUP 4: $38.087 - Low Aug 27  

Trend signals in Silver remain bullish and recent weakness is considered corrective. The trend has recently been in overbought territory and the retracement has allowed this to unwind. Price remains above support at the 50-day EMA, at $46.670. A clear break of the average would signal scope for a deeper retracement. Key resistance has been defined at $54.480, the Oct 17 high. Initial resistance is $52.374, a Fibonacci retracement.