MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - USDJPY Off Important Support

Price Signal Summary – USDJPY Bounces Off Important Support

• A bull cycle in S&P E-Minis remains intact. The contract has traded to a fresh cycle high this week to confirm a resumption of the uptrend and maintain the positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Eurostoxx 50 futures maintain a bullish theme. This week’s gains have resulted in a breach of key resistance at 5525.00, the Aug 22 high. The break confirms a resumption of the uptrend. The impulsive climb opens the 5700.00 handle next.
• A bear cycle in GBPUSD that began Sep 17, remains in play and the latest bounce - for now - appears corrective. Initial key resistance to watch is 1.3537, the Sep 23 high and a near-term pivot level. USDJPY has recovered from Wednesday’s low. Recent weakness resulted in a clear breach of the 50-day EMA. This continues to signal scope for a deeper retracement and exposes the key short-term pivot support at 145.49. A bull cycle in USDCAD remains intact and yesterday’s break above the late September’s high, firms the bullish theme. This move higher also maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. 
• A bull cycle in Gold remains in play. The yellow metal has traded to a fresh cycle high this week, confirming a resumption of the primary uptrend. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. WTI futures have pulled back from their recent highs. Yesterday's sell-off resulted in a move through key support and the bear trigger at $60.85, the Aug 13 low.
• Bund futures continue are holding on to their latest gains. Recent gains appear corrective. Key support and the bear trigger lies at 127.61, the Sep 3 low. Gilt futures continue to trade above their latest lows. The move down last week strengthens a bearish theme and does suggest the end of the recent corrective phase between Sep 3 - 11.

[GLOBAL] MNI Tech Trend Monitor - Highlighting Key Longer-Term Trends:
MNI Tech Trend Monitor: https://emedia.marketnews.com/marketnewsintl/MNITechTrendMonitor.pdf

We introduce the MNI Tech Trend Monitor - This document highlights a selection of key longer-term trends that we have identified in markets that could be reaching inflection points, trend reversals/extensions or technically significant levels.

Covering:

• UK Gilt 10y Yield
• UK Gilt 30y Yield
• ICE USD Index
• Europe Banking Stock Index (SX7E)

FOREIGN EXCHANGE    

EURUSD TECHS: Trading Above Recent Lows  

• RES 4: 1.2063 2.236 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - 247 price swing
• RES 3: 1.2000 Round number resistance 
• RES 2: 1.1919/23 High Sep 17 / 2.0 proj of Feb 28 - Mar 18-27 swing
• RES 1: 1.1820 High Sep 23  
• PRICE: 1.1719 @ 05:58 BST Oct 3
• SUP 1: 1.1687/46 50-day EMA / Low Sep 25 
• SUP 2: 1.1574 Low Aug 27
• SUP 3: 1.1528 Low Aug 5
• SUP 4: 1.1392 Low Aug 1 and bear trigger.

EURUSD continues to trade above its recent lows. The primary trend direction is up and recent weakness is considered corrective. Support to watch lies at 1.1687, the 50-day EMA. It has been pierced, a clear break of the average would signal scope for a deeper retracement and expose 1.1574 initially, the Aug 27 low. For bulls, a clear  resumption of gains would open 1.1923, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance is 1.1820, Sep 23 high.       

GBPUSD TECHS: Support Remains Exposed    

• RES 4: 1.3789 High Jul 1 and key resistance    
• RES 3: 1.3726 High Sep 17 
• RES 2: 1.3661 High Sep 18
• RES 1: 1.3537 High Sep 23 and a pivot level 
• PRICE: 1.3435 @ 06:09 BST Oct 3
• SUP 1: 1.3324 Low Sep 25 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 2: 1.3282 Low Aug 6
• SUP 3: 1.3254 Low Aug 4
• SUP 4: 1.3144 38.2% retracement of the Jan 13 - Jul 1 bull cycle          

A bear cycle in GBPUSD that began Sep 17, remains in play and the latest bounce - for now - appears corrective. Initial key resistance to watch is 1.3537, the Sep 23 high and a near-term pivot level. Clearance of this hurdle would signal a potential reversal. Recent weakness resulted in a break of a trendline drawn from the Aug 1 low. Note too that 1.3333, the Sep 3 low and a key support, has been pierced. This opens 1.3282 next, the Aug 6 low.           

EURGBP TECHS: Sights Are On Key Resistance          

• RES 4: 0.8835 High May 3 2023  
• RES 3: 0.8800 Round number resistance 
• RES 2: 0.8769 High Jul 28 and the bull trigger 
• RES 1: 0.8751 High Sep 25  
• PRICE: 0.8722 @ 06:45 BST Oct 3
• SUP 1: 0.8671/8597 50-day EMA / Low Aug 14 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 0.8562 50.0% retracement May 29 - Jul 28 upleg 
• SUP 3: 0.8540 Low Jun 30 
• SUP 4: 0.8514 61.8% retracement May 29 - Jul 28 upleg

The pullback in EURGBP from its recent highs, appears corrective. The trend condition remains bullish. The latest recovery paves the way for an extension towards the bull trigger at 0.8769, the Jul 28 high. Clearance of this level would strengthen the bull theme. Support to watch lies at 0.8597, the Aug 14 low. A breach of this level would instead reinstate a recent bearish threat. First support is 0.8671, the 50-day EMA. 

USDJPY TECHS: Finds Support          

• RES 4: 151.62 61.8% retracement of the Jan 10 - Apr 22 bear leg
• RES 3: 151.21 High Mar 28 
• RES 2: 150.92 High Aug 1 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 148.84/149.96 High Sep 30 / 26 and the bull trigger   
• PRICE: 147.41 @ 16:33 BST Oct 2
• SUP 1: 146.59 Low Oct 1
• SUP 2: 146.47 Trendline support drawn from the Apr 22 low   
• SUP 3: 145.49 Low Sep 17 and a pivot support
• SUP 4: 144.23 Low Jul 7 

USDJPY has recovered from Wednesday’s low. Recent weakness resulted in a clear breach of the 50-day EMA. This continues to signal scope for a deeper retracement and exposes the key short-term pivot support at 145.49, the Sep 17 low. A clear break of this level would cancel a recent bull theme. On the upside a reversal higher would refocus attention on resistance at 149.69, the Sep 26 high and a bull trigger.         

EURJPY TECHS: Monitoring Support At The 50-Day EMA    

• RES 4: 177.08 2.000 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - Apr 7 price swing 
• RES 3: 176.00 Round number resistance 
• RES 2: 175.43 High Jul 11 ‘24 and a key medium-term resistance
• RES 1: 173.92/175.13 High Oct 1 / High Sep 29 and the bull trigger     
• PRICE: 173.07 @ 07:16 BST Oct 3
• SUP 1: 172.27 Low Oct 2
• SUP 2: 170.97 Low Aug 14 
• SUP 3: 169.73/45 Low Jul 31 / 23.6% of the Feb 28 - Jul 28 bull leg 
• SUP 4: 168.46 Low Jul 1   

The trend in EURJPY is unchanged, it remains bullish and this week’s pullback is considered corrective. The cross has pierced the 50-day EMA, at 172.47. A clear break of this average would signal scope for a deeper retracement and open 170.97, the Aug 14 low. MA studies remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. A resumption of gains would refocus attention on 175.13, the Sep 29 high and bull trigger. 

AUDUSD TECHS: Support Remains Intact For Now    

• RES 4: 0.6763 1.382 proj of the Jun 23 - Jul 24 - Aug 21 price swing
• RES 3: 0.6726 1.236 proj of the Jun 23 - Jul 24 - Aug 21 price swing
• RES 2: 0.6660/6707 High Sep 18 / 17 and key resistance
• RES 1: 0.6629 High Sep 30 & Oct 01
• PRICE: 0.6598 @ 08:00 BST Oct 3
• SUP 1: 0.6527/21 61.8% of the Aug 21 - Sep 17 bull leg / Low Sep 26 
• SUP 2: 0.6484 76.4% retracement of the Aug 21 - Sep 17 bull leg
• SUP 3: 0.6463/6415 Low Aug 27 / Low Aug 21 / 22 and a bear trigger 
• SUP 4: 0.6373 Low Jun 23

The AUDUSD uptrend remains intact and recent weakness appears to have been a correction. Support to watch lies at the 50-day EMA, at 0.6558. A clear break of this average would signal scope for a deeper retracement and expose 0.6527 once again, a Fibonacci retracement. For bulls, a stronger reversal higher would refocus attention on 0.6707, the Sep 17 high. Initial resistance to watch is 0.6629, the Sep 30 and Oct 1 high.    

USDCAD TECHS: Fresh Cycle High 

• RES 4: 1.4111 High Apr 10 
• RES 3: 1.4045 3.0% Upper Bollinger Band
• RES 2: 1.4019 38.2% retracement of the Feb 3 - Jun 16 bear leg
• RES 1: 1.3989 200-dma
• PRICE: 1.3964 @ 08:08 BST Oct 3
• SUP 1: 1.3897/3825 Low Sep 30 / 50-day EMA  
• SUP 2: 1.3727 Low Aug 29 and a bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.3689 Low Jul 28  
• SUP 4: 1.3637 Low Jul 25  

A bull cycle in USDCAD remains intact and yesterday’s break above the late September’s high, firms the bullish theme. This move higher also maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Note too that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on 1.4019, a Fibonacci retracement point. On the downside, first key support lies at 1.3825, the 50-day EMA.    

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (Z5) Holding On To Its Recent Gains          

• RES 4: 129.50 High Aug 5  
• RES 3: 129.44 High Sep 10 and key short-term resistance     
• RES 2: 129.13 High Sep 17 
• RES 1: 128.84 61.8% retracement of the Sep 10 - 25 bear leg    
• PRICE: 128.65 @ 05:32 BST Oct 3
• SUP 1: 128.24/127.88 Low Oct 1 / Low Sep 25       
• SUP 2: 127.61 Low Sep 3 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 127.46 1.00 proj of the Aug 14 - 15 - 28 price swing  
• SUP 4: 127.13 1.236 proj of the Aug 14 - 15 - 28 price swing  

Bund futures continue are holding on to their latest gains. Recent gains appear corrective. Key support and the bear trigger lies at 127.61, the Sep 3 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a continuation of the medium-term bear cycle. For bulls, a clear reversal higher would refocus attention on key resistance at 129.44, the Sep 10 high. First resistance is 128.84, 61.8% of the Sep 10 - 25 bear leg.           

BOBL TECHS: (Z5) Resistance Still Intact   

• RES 4: 118.170 Low Sep 10      
• RES 3: 118.090 High Sep 17 and a key short-term resistance 
• RES 2: 118.040 High Sep 18   
• RES 1: 117.950 High Oct 1   
• PRICE: 117.850 @ 05:45 BST Oct 3
• SUP 1: 117.630/470 Low Oct 1 / Low Sep 25  
• SUP 2: 117.450 1.000 proj of the Sep 8 - 12 - 17 price swing  
• SUP 3: 117.299 1.236 proj of the Sep 8 - 12 - 17 price swing  
• SUP 4: 117.080 Low Sep 2 (cont.) 

The latest bounce in Bobl futures appears corrective and the trend condition remains bearish. A price sequence of lower lows and lower highs is intact and on the continuation chart, moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Sights are on 117.450, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, key short-term resistance is 118.090, the Sep 18 high. A move above this level would signal a potential reversal.      

SCHATZ TECHS: (Z5) Trend Needle Continues To Point South  

• RES 4: 107.240 High Aug 4 
• RES 3: 107.225 High Aug 27 and the bull trigger 
• RES 2: 107.145/190 High Sep 11 / High Sep 5 and 8
• RES 1: 107.050 Low Aug 25 and Sep 2 and a recent breakout level 
• PRICE: 106.995 @ 05:29 BST Oct 3
• SUP 1: 106.920 Low Sep 25 and the bear trigger   
• SUP 2: 106.907 1.618 proj of the the Aug 27 - Sep 2 - 8 price swing  
• SUP 3: 106.900 Round number support
• SUP 4: 106.881 1.764 proj of the the Aug 27 - Sep 2 - 8 price swing

The trend structure in Schatz futures remains bearish and recent gains appear corrective. A fresh cycle low on Sep 25, confirmed a resumption of the downtrend. This maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Sights are on 106.907 next, a Fibonacci projection, ahead of the 106.900 handle. On the upside, initial resistance is at 107.050, the Aug 25 and Sep 2 low.       

GILT TECHS: (Z5) Bearish Outlook      

• RES 4: 92.30 High Aug 7
• RES 3: 92.06 High Aug 14      
• RES 2: 92.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 91.28/82 High Sep 24 / 11
• PRICE: 90.79 @ Close Oct 2
• SUP 1: 90.26/89.94 Low Sep 26 / 76.4% of the Sep 3 - 11 correction     
• SUP 2: 90.31/89.36 Low Sep 4 / 3
• SUP 3: 89.36 Low Sep 3  
• SUP 4: 89.22 1.618 proj of the Aug 21 - 27 - 28 price swing  

Gilt futures continue to trade above their latest lows. The move down last week strengthens a bearish theme and does suggest the end of the recent corrective phase between Sep 3 - 11. Note that on the continuation chart, moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. A resumption of weakness would open 89.94, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial resistance to watch is 91.28, the Sep 24 high.     

BTP TECHS: (Z5) Resistance Remains Exposed      

• RES 4: 122.56 0.764 proj of the Apr 9 - May 8 - 14 price swing (cont)
• RES 3: 121.88 0.618 proj of the Apr 9 - May 8 - 14 price swing (cont) 
• RES 2: 121.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 120.74 High Aug 5 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 119.90 @ Close Oct 2
• SUP 1: 119.06/118.36 Low Sep 4 / 3         
• SUP 2: 118.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 117.70 2.236 proj of the Aug 5 - 12 - 14 price swing  
• SUP 4: 117.36 2.500 proj of the Aug 5 - 12 - 14 price swing 

The primary trend condition in BTP futures is unchanged, it remains bullish and the most recent pullback appears to have been a correction. The strong rally that started Sep 3 reinforces a bull theme and signals the end of the larger corrective pullback between Aug 5 - Sep 3. Key resistance and the bull trigger is 120.74, the Aug 5 high. A break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the trend. Key support to watch lies at 118.36, the Sep 3 low.                          

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (Z5) Impulsive Bull Cycle    

• RES 4: 5777.41 1.382 proj of the Aug 1 - 22 - Sep 2 price swing
• RES 3: 5727.18 1.236 proj of the Aug 1 - 22 - Sep 2 price swing  
• RES 2: 5700.00 Round number resistance 
• RES 1: 5689.00 High Oct 2       
• PRICE: 5682.00 @ 06:35 BST Oct 3
• SUP 1: 5621.00/5525.00 Low Oct 2 / High Aug 22 
• SUP 2: 5485.91 20-day EMA  
• SUP 3: 5431.79 50-day EMA   
• SUP 4: 5366.00 Low Sep 17    

Eurostoxx 50 futures maintain a bullish theme. This week’s gains have resulted in a breach of key resistance at 5525.00, the Aug 22 high. The break confirms a resumption of the uptrend. The impulsive climb opens the 5700.00 handle next, with potential for a test of 5727.18 further out, a Fibonacci projection. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Initial firm support is 5525.00, the Aug 22 high.       

E-MINI S&P: (Z5) Northbound  

• RES 4: 6812.29 2.382 proj of the Aug 20 - 28 - Sep 2 price swing 
• RES 3: 6800.00 Round number resistance 
• RES 2: 6787.63 1.382 proj of the Aug 1 - 15 - 20 price swing   
• RES 1: 6785.75 Intraday high  
• PRICE: 6783.50 @ 08:11 BST Oct 3
• SUP 1: 6675.82 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 6611.00 Low Sep 17 
• SUP 3: 6558.72 50-day EMA 
• SUP 4: 6506.50 Low Sep 5 

A bull cycle in S&P E-Minis remains intact. The contract has traded to a fresh cycle high this week to confirm a resumption of the uptrend and maintain the positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on 6787.63, a Fibonacci projection. Initial support to watch is at the 20-day EMA, at 6675.82. It has recently been pierced, a clear break of it would signal scope for a deeper pullback, potentially towards the 50-day EMA, at 6558.72.    

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (Z5) Breaches The The Bear Trigger        

• RES 4: $78.63 - 2.618 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 3: $76.82 - 2.382 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 2: $75.43 - High Jun 23 and a bull trigger 
• RES 1: $69.87/71.20 - High Sep 26 / High Jul 30 and key resistance 
• PRICE: $64.69 @ 07:11 BST Oct 3
• SUP 1: $64.00 - Low Oct 2
• SUP 2: $60.85 - Low May 30 
• SUP 3: $58.50 - Low May 5
• SUP 4: $57.88 - Low Apr 9 and a key support   

Brent futures have pulled back from their recent highs. Yesterday’s sell-off saw the contract trade through key support and the bear trigger at $64.20, the Jun 30 low. Clearance of this level strengthens a bearish theme and paves the way for an extension towards $60.85, the May 30 low. Initial firm resistance has been defined at $69.87, the Sep 26 high. A break of this level would instead signal a reversal.      

WTI TECHS: (X5) Cracks Support  

• RES 4: $76.89 - 2.764 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 3: $74.79- 2.500 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 2: $73.39 - High Jun 23 and a bull trigger 
• RES 1: $66.42/68.43 - High Sep 29 and key resistance / High Jul 30   
• PRICE: $61.08 @ 07:19 BST Oct 3
• SUP 1: $60.40 - Low Oct 2 
• SUP 2: $57.50 - Low May 30
• SUP 3: $54.89 - Low May 5
• SUP 4: $54.10 - Low Apr 9 and a key support

WTI futures have pulled back from their recent highs. Yesterday's sell-off resulted in a move through key support and the bear trigger at $60.85, the Aug 13 low. Clearance of this level strengthens a bearish theme and paves the way for an extension towards $57.50, the May 30 low. Initial firm resistance has been defined at $66.42, the Sep 29 high. A break of this level would highlight a reversal.    

GOLD TECHS: Bull Cycle Intact      

• RES 4: $3987.3 - 2.236 proj of the May 15 - Jun 16 - 30 price swing
• RES 3: $3909.4 - 2.000 proj of the May 15 - Jun 16 - 30 price swing
• RES 2: $3900.0 - Round number resistance
• RES 1: $3896.9 - High Oct 2              
• PRICE: $3859.2 @ 07:24 BST Oct 3
• SUP 1: $3793.2 - Low Sep 29  
• SUP 2: $3715.0 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: $3683.8 - Low Sep 22
• SUP 4: $3572.8 - 50-day EMA  

A bull cycle in Gold remains in play. The yellow metal has traded to a fresh cycle high this week, confirming a resumption of the primary uptrend. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on $3909.4, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, support to watch lies at $3715.0, the 20-day EMA. A pullback would be considered corrective.                 

SILVER TECHS: Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: $49.444 - 3.236 proj of the Sep 4 - 16 - 17 price swing
• RES 3: $48.838 - 3.000 proj of the Sep 4 - 16 - 17 price swing
• RES 2: $48.232 - 2.764 proj of the Sep 4 - 16 - 17 price swing
• RES 1: $48.052 - High Oct 2      
• PRICE: $47.274@ 08:12 BST Oct 3
• SUP 1: $45.812/43.987 - Low Sep 30 / 20-day EMA 
• SUP 2: $41.340 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $38.580 - Low Aug 28   
• SUP 4: $36.965 - Low Aug 20

Trend signals in Silver remain bullish. The metal has traded higher this week as the bull cycle extends. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position too, reinforcing current conditions. Sights are $48.232 next, a 2.618 projection of the Sep 4 - 16 - 17 price swing. Clearance of this level would pave the way for a climb towards the $48.00 handle. Initial firm support to watch lies at $43.987, the 20-day EMA.