MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - USDJPY Ends Consolidation Phase

Price Signal Summary – USDJPY Ends Consolidation With Break of Support 

• Wednesday saw new record highs in the e-mini S&P, clearing resistance through the 6477.31 mark. This cements the underlying uptrend, exposing projection levels into 6523.63 next. The bounce off post-NFP lows in global equity indices persists, with the Eurostoxx 50 future recovering back above the 50-day EMA. Markets look to build a base above this level, through which additional strength refocuses attention on 5486.00.
• GBPUSD has printed a new higher high early Thursday, clearing resistance into 1.3589 in the process. This puts the pair well clear of the 50% retracement for the downleg off the YTD high at 1.3789 and opens 1.3620. USDJPY has turned lower, ending the consolidation phase that dictated play last week. Weakness today puts the price through support drawn off the early August lows as well as 146.71, a key retracement. AUDUSD rallied well off the week’s lowest levels last week on broad USD weakness - erasing any signs of a bearish breakout on the show through the 20- and 50-day EMAs.
• Gold prices are off the weekly low, however bounces appear shallow at these levels, keeping price within the mid-point of the recent range. The phase of weakness into the end of July supported the view that short-term pullbacks are corrective - for now - and the bull cycle that started Jun 30 remains intact. WTI futures traded poorly into the Wednesday close, extending losses on the clearance of the 50-day EMA and bear trigger. Markets have built on this S/T momentum lower, with support breaking at $62.77. The clear break here exposes $58.17.
• Bunds reversed the Tuesday slippage into yesterday’s close, forming a bullish daily candle in the process. This keeps markets clear of a test of the bear trigger and notable support of 128.84. Having traded higher mid-last week, Gilt futures faded alongside global bonds into the Tuesday close. Having pulled back to 91.51, markets have reversed any bullish reversal signal stemming from the August 1st daily candle. 

FOREIGN EXCHANGE    

EURUSD TECHS: Bullish Daily Candle

• RES 4: 1.1851 High Sep 10 2021
• RES 3: 1.1829 High Jul 01 and the bull trigger 
• RES 2: 1.1789 High Jul 24 
• RES 1: 1.1730 High Aug 13
• PRICE: 1.1683 @ 15:40 BST Aug 14
• SUP 1: 1.1401 Low Jul 30 and a bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.1373 Low Jun 10
• SUP 3: 1.1313 Low May 30
• SUP 4: 1.1184 38.2% retracement of the Feb 3 - Jul 1 bull cycle  

EUR/USD edged higher Tuesday and built on the gains into the Wednesday close. Prices are firmer on the clearance of the post-NFP high - keeping the recovery off the late July pullback low intact. This works against the bearish backdrop that had dominated the pullback from 1.1829. The break of firm resistance into 20-day EMA, now at 1.1632, is signaling greater odds of a further reversal higher. Major support below rests at 1.1373 next, the Jun 10 low. 

GBPUSD TECHS: Clears Resistance

• RES 4: 1.3681 High Jul 4
• RES 3: 1.3636 76.4% Jul-Aug Downleg 
• RES 2: 1.3620 High Jul 10 
• RES 1: 1.3589/92 High Jul 24/Aug 14
• PRICE: 1.3583 @ 08:28 BST Aug 14
• SUP 1: 1.3144 38.2% retracement of the Jan 13 - Jul 1 bull cycle
• SUP 2: 1.3041 Low Apr 14
• SUP 3: 1.3000 Round number support 
• SUP 4: 1.2945 50.0% retracement of the Jan 13 - Jul 1 bull cycle   

GBPUSD has printed a new higher high early Thursday, clearing resistance into 1.3589 in the process. This puts the pair well clear of the 50% retracement for the downleg off the YTD high at 1.3789 and opens 1.3620 and 1.3636 resistance. Prices are building on the gains posted after the break of the 50-day EMA on the August BoE rate decision and signals a greater probability of a bullish reversal. 

EURGBP TECHS: Bearish Break

• RES 4: 0.8835 High May 3 2023  
• RES 3: 0.8800 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 0.8781 2.236 pro of the Mar 3 - 11 - 28 price swing
• RES 1: 0.8735/8769 High Aug 3 / High Jul 27 and the bull trigger 
• PRICE: 0.8602 @ 08:31 BST Aug 14
• SUP 1: 0.8598 Low Aug 14 
• SUP 2: 0.8562 50% retracement May-Jul upleg 
• SUP 3: 0.8540 Low Jun 30 
• SUP 4: 0.8508 Low Jun 27

EURGBP has taken out key support through the 0.8611-13 level, marking both the 50-day EMA as well as horizontal support drawn off the late July lows. Should this weakness persist, the bearish threat turns to 0.8551, the 50% retracement for the May-July upleg. The waning bullish trend is evident in the 20-day EMA beginning to turn lower, signalling the risk of further pressure in the price. For now, key resistance and the bull trigger remains at 0.8769, the Jul 27 high.

USDJPY TECHS: Turns Lower

• RES 4: 152.31 High Feb 19 
• RES 3: 151.62 61.8% retracement of the Jan 10 - Apr 22 bear leg 
• RES 2: 151.21 High Mar 28 
• RES 1: 150.92 High Aug 1 
• PRICE: 146.49 @ 08:47 BST Aug 14
• SUP 1: 146.21 Low Aug 14
• SUP 2: 145.94/86 1.0% 10-dma envelope / Low Jul 24
• SUP 3: 145.53 100-dma
• SUP 4: 145.40 50% retracement Apr - Aug Upleg

USDJPY has turned lower, ending the consolidation phase that dictated play last week. Weakness today puts the price through support drawn off the early August lows as well as 146.71, a key retracement. Price action this week marks a full reversal of the previously overbought condition, keeping the downside argument in focus. The inability of markets to build a base above the 20-day EMA was also a concern and opens 145.86-94 support. A break of last week’s 150.92 high would resume the uptrend.     

EURJPY TECHS: Trend Structure Remains Bullish 

• RES 4: 177.08 2.000 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - Apr 7 price swing 
• RES 3: 175.43 High Jul 11 ‘24 and a key medium-term resistance
• RES 2: 174.86 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - Apr 7 price swing
• RES 1: 173.97 High Jul 28 and the bull trigger 
• PRICE: 171.13 @ 08:55 BST Aug 14
• SUP 1: 169.93 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 169.73/45 Low Jul 31 / 23.6% of the Feb 28 - Jul 28 bull leg
• SUP 3: 168.46 Low Jul 1  
• SUP 4: 167.46 Low Jun 23   

EURJPY is off highs, but the underlying bull trend remains intact and for now the recent move down is considered corrective. Key support to watch lies at the 50-day EMA at 169.93. A clear break of the EMA is required to highlight a stronger short-term bearish threat. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position highlighting an uptrend. A break of the Jul 28 high of 173.97, would resume the bull cycle.  

AUDUSD TECHS: Edging Higher Despite RBA Cuts 

• RES 4: 0.6700 76.4% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Apr 9 bear leg
• RES 3: 0.6688 High Nov 7 ‘24
• RES 2: 0.6677 0.764 proj of the Jun 23 - Jul 11 - 17 price swing  
• RES 1: 0.6569/6625 High Aug 14 / 24 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 0.6532 @ 08:59 BST Aug 14
• SUP 1: 0.6419 Low Aug 1
• SUP 2: 0.6373 Low Jun 23 and a bear trigger 
• SUP 3: 0.6354 38.2% retracement of the Apr 9 - Jul 24 upleg  
• SUP 4: 0.6323 Low Apr 16

AUDUSD rallied well off the week’s lowest levels last week on broad USD weakness - erasing any signs of a bearish breakout on the show through the 20- and 50-day EMAs. While support at 0.6455 the Jul 17 low, has been cleared, the recovery in prices keeps key resistance in focus at 0.6625 the Jul 24 high. It also represents the bull trigger. Any return lower would signal a bearish threat into 0.6373, the Jun 23 low. 

USDCAD TECHS: Shallow Bounce Off Lows

• RES 4: 1.4111 High Apr 10  
• RES 3: 1.4019 38.2% retracement of the Feb 3 - Jun 16 bear leg 
• RES 2: 1.3920 High May 21
• RES 1: 1.3879 High Aug 1
• PRICE: 1.3775 @ 09:00 BST Aug 14
• SUP 1: 1.3557 Low Jul 03
• SUP 2: 1.3540 Low Jun 16 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.3503 1.618 proj of the Feb 3 - 14 - Mar 4 price swing
• SUP 4: 1.3473 Low Oct 2 2024

USDCAD remains subdued, despite the shallow bounce Friday feeding through to further gains on Tuesday. The reversal off mid-week highs affirms this theme. The pair remains notably lower on the week on the back of the recent phase of USD weakness. Initial firm support has been breached at the 1.3745 20-day EMA, a clean break below which would resume the correction off the early August high at 1.3879. This week’s price action has cancelled any bullish threat and returned focus lower. The 100-dma becomes a key pivot point at 1.3808 last. 

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U5) Strong Daily Close

• RES 4: 131.33 High Jun 20
• RES 3: 130.85 61.8% retracement of the Jun 13 - Jul 14 bear leg 
• RES 2: 130.76 High Jul 22
• RES 1: 130.60 High Aug 5
• PRICE: 129.82 @ 07:07 BST Aug 14
• SUP 1: 128.84 Low Jul 25 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 2: 128.40 Low Apr 9
• SUP 3: 128.19 Low Mar 27 (cont) 
• SUP 4: 127.83 76.4% retracement of the Mar 11 - Apr 7 bull leg (cont)  

Bunds reversed the Tuesday slippage into yesterday’s close, forming a bullish daily candle in the process. This keeps markets clear of a test of the bear trigger and notable support of 128.84, but further impulsive selling will see the level under pressure. Strength above the 50-day EMA of 130.04 failed to stick, which cancels any bullish theme that followed the formation of a bullish engulfing candle on Jul 28. 

BOBL TECHS: (U5) Off Lows, But Still Weak

• RES 4: 118.390 High Jun 13    
• RES 3: 118.030 High Jul 22 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 117.710 High Aug 5
• RES 1: 117.456 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 117.440 @ 07:14 BST Aug 14
• SUP 1: 116.970 Low Jul 25 and a bear trigger   
• SUP 2: 116.840 Low Mar 18 (cont)
• SUP 3: 116.800 Low Mar 17 (cont) 
• SUP 4: 116.637 76.4% retracement of the Mar 6 - Apr 7 bull leg (cont)

Prices faded into the Tuesday close, testing recent lows before a firm rally into yesterday’s close. Bobl futures, however, remain well toward the bottom-end of the recent range. Despite piercing first resistance early last week at the 50-day EMA, prices remain capped to keep focus on the bear trigger of 116.970 - the July 25 and range low. Having failed to establish a base on the hammer formation and engulfing signal in late July, the S/T trend looks weak. Clearance of 116.970 opens levels on the continuation chart at 116.80-84.

SCHATZ TECHS: (U5) Support Holds

• RES 4: 107.430 High Jun 13  
• RES 3: 107.360 High Jul 22 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 107.202 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 107.128 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 107.085 @ 07:20 BST Aug 14
• SUP 1: 106.990 Low Aug 12
• SUP 2: 107.993 1.500 proj of the Jul 7 - 11 - 22 price swing 
• SUP 3: 106.964 1.618 proj of the Jul 7 - 11 - 22 price swing
• SUP 4: 106.928 1.764 proj of the Jul 7 - 11 - 22 price swing

The sell-off in Schatz futures resulted in the bear trigger being pierced Tuesday: the 107.010 support gave way, signalling potential for further near-term losses. The move lower marked new contract lows, exposing projection levels layered between 106.928-107.993, which should act as a modest zone of support ahead of the March levels on the continuation contract. The 20-day EMA remains the upside level of interest, having defined the early August downtrend, today at 107.128.

GILT TECHS: (U5) Bearish Daily Close

• RES 4: 93.23 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 93.13 76.4% retracement of the Jul 1 - 18 bear leg     
• RES 2: 93.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 92.84 High Aug 5
• PRICE: 92.05 @ Close Aug 13
• SUP 1: 91.51 Low Aug 12
• SUP 2: 91.44/08 Low Aug 1 / Jul 18 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 90.97 76.4% retracement of the May 22 - Jul 1 bull leg  
• SUP 4: 90.59 Low May 29       

Having traded higher mid-last week, Gilt futures faded alongside global bonds into the Tuesday close. Having pulled back to 91.51, markets have reversed any bullish reversal signal stemming from the August 1st daily candle, exposing key support and the bear trigger at 91.08, the Jul 18 low. With S/T momentum pointed lower, markets need to build a base at 92.17 to establish any recovery. 

BTP TECHS: (U5) Resistance Remains Exposed     

• RES 4: 122.35 2.500 proj of the May 14 - 20 - 21 price swing
• RES 3: 122.00 Round number resistance 
• RES 2: 121.73 High Jun 13 and the bull trigger 
• RES 1: 121.70 High Aug 5
• PRICE: 121.32 @ 07:34 BST Aug 14
• SUP 1: 119.59 Low Jul 25 and key short-term support         
• SUP 2: 119.48 Low May 26 
• SUP 3: 118.87 Low May 21  
• SUP 4: 118.51 Low May 14 and key support 

The primary trend condition in BTP futures is unchanged and remains bullish, in contrast with broader EGB and Treasury markets. While closed lower Tuesday, the underlying uptrend remains intact, while price holds between the 20- and 50-day EMAs. 120.89 and 121.20 hold as the intraday targets. A continuation higher would open 121.73, the Jul 13 high and bull trigger. Key short-term support has been defined at 119.59, the Jul 25 low.                     

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (U5) Recovery Builds

• RES 4: 5575.00 High Mar 3 and a major resistance (cont) 
• RES 3: 5526.00 High Mar 19 / 20 (cont)
• RES 2: 5486.00/88.00 High May 20 and a bull trigger / High Jul 10
• RES 1: 5449.00 High Jul 28   
• PRICE: 5393.00 @ 07:35 BST Aug 14
• SUP 1: 5213.60 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 2: 5166.00 Low Aug 1
• SUP 3: 5138.00 High Apr 30 
• SUP 4: 5078.00 Low Apr 30  

The bounce off post-NFP lows in global equity indices persists, with the Eurostoxx 50 future recovering back above the 50-day EMA. Markets look to build a base above this level, through which additional strength refocuses attention on 5486.00, the May 20 high. To the downside, recent impulsive weakness did result in a temporary breach of the bear trigger - this makes the April 30 hi/lo range at 5078-5138 the area of downside interest. 

E-MINI S&P: (U5) Plumbing New Highs

• RES 4: 6600.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 6523.63 1.764 proj of the May 23 - Jun 11 - 23 price swing 
• RES 2: 6521.12 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 1: 6502.50 Alltime High
• PRICE: 6478.75 @ 07:36 BST Aug 14
• SUP 1: 6253.04 2.0% 10-dma Envelope
• SUP 2: 6239.50 Low Aug 1
• SUP 3: 6240.28 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 6213.75 50% retracement of Jun - Aug Upleg

Wednesday saw new record highs in the e-mini S&P, clearing resistance through the 6477.31 mark. This cements the underlying uptrend, exposing projection levels into 6523.63 next. Vol-based resistance kicks in at 6521.12. Through recent phases of weakness, the 50-day EMA at 6240.28, has held as support - and will be important on any subsequent declines. Clearance of this average is required to signal a stronger reversal. 

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (V5) Biased Lower

• RES 4: $83.02 - 3.000 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 3: $81.07 - 2.764 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 2: $79.86 - 2.618 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 1: $72.89/77.73 - 61.8% of the Jun 23-30 downleg / High Jun 23
• PRICE: $65.94 @ 07:45 BST Aug 14
• SUP 1: $65.01 - Low Aug 13
• SUP 2: $60.96 - Low May 30
• SUP 3: $58.18 - Low May 5
• SUP 4: $57.74 - Low Apr 9 and a key support   

Weakness across Brent futures persists, with fresh pullback lows printed into the Wednesday close. This extends the spell of weakness posted off the break of $71.40, the 50.0% retracement of the Jun 23 - 50 downleg. The bear trigger at $65.06, the Jun 30 low, has been cleared. The break resumes the recent bearish theme and opens $60.96 for direction. The next resistance to watch remains $72.89, the 61.8% retracement point. 

WTI TECHS: (U5) Bearish Daily Close

• RES 4: $81.12 - 3.000 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 3: $80.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 2: $77.75 - 2.618 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 1: $70.96/75.98 - 61.8% of the Jun 23-24 downleg / High Jun 23
• PRICE: $62.94 @ 07:52 BST Aug 14
• SUP 1: $61.94 - Low Aug 13
• SUP 2: $58.17 - Low May 30
• SUP 3: $54.66 - Low May 5
• SUP 4: $54.01 - Low Apr 9 and a key support

WTI futures traded poorly into the Wednesday close, extending losses on the clearance of the 50-day EMA and bear trigger. Markets have built on this S/T momentum lower, with support breaking at $62.77. The clear break here exposes $58.17, the May 30 low. Gains early last week marked an extension of a corrective cycle - which may now have concluded to result in cleaner positioning. $69.41 marks the 50.0% retracement of the Jun 23-24 downleg - an important level on any recovery from here.

GOLD TECHS: Shallow Bounce

• RES 4: $3547.9 - 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - Apr 7 price swing
• RES 3: $3500.1 - High Apr 22 and bull trigger
• RES 2: $3451.3 - High Jun 16  
• RES 1: $3409.2/3439.0 - High Aug 8 / 23             
• PRICE: $3360.5 @ 07:54 BST Aug 14
• SUP 1: $3268.2 - Low Jul 30 
• SUP 2: $3248.7 - Low Jun 30 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $3204.7 - Low May 20
• SUP 4: $3121.0 - Low May 15 and key support 

Prices are off the weekly low, however bounces appear shallow at these levels, keeping price within the mid-point of the recent range. The phase of weakness into the end of July supported the view that short-term pullbacks are corrective - for now - and the bull cycle that started Jun 30 remains intact. However, the yellow metal has traded through support at $3333.9, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this level continues to signal scope for a deeper retracement and exposes the next key support at $3248.7, the Jun 30 low. Key near-term resistance is $3439.0, the Jul 23 high.            

SILVER TECHS: Recovers Off Support

• RES 4: $41.064 - 1.764 proj of the Apr 7 - 25 - May 15 swing
• RES 3: $40.285 - 1.618 proj of the Apr 7 - 25 - May 15 swing
• RES 2: $40.000 - Psychological round number
• RES 1: $39.655 - 1.500 proj of the Apr 7 - 25 - May 15 swing    
• PRICE: $38.507 @ 08:19 BST Aug 14
• SUP 1: $36.216 - Low Jul 31 
• SUP 2: $35.285 - Low Jun 24
• SUP 3: $33.940 - 50.0% retracement of the Apr 7 - Jul 23 bull leg  
• SUP 4: $32.958 - Low Jun 2

Trend signals in Silver remain bullish despite the unconstructive price action into the end of July. The pullback off the late July highs is considered corrective - particularly as prices have recovered off support at the 50-day EMA, now at $36.895. It has been pierced, but a clear break of it is needed to strengthen a short-term bearish threat and allow for a deeper retracement. This would open $35.285, the Jun 24 low. For bulls, a resumption of gains would refocus attention on the next objective at $39.655 a Fibonacci projection.