MNI Daily Technical Analysis - USDJPY Bull Cycle Intact

Price Signal Summary - USDJPY Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat  

• In the equity space, a bull cycle in S&P E-Minis remains intact and the latest pullback is considered corrective - for now. The contract has pierced initial support at the 20-day EMA, at 6634.71. A clear breach of this average would signal scope for a deeper retracement, potentially towards the 50-day EMA, at 6519.15. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 6756.75, the Sep 22 high where a break would resume the primary uptrend. EUROSTOXX 50 futures are trading closer to their recent highs. The contract has cleared resistance around the 20-day EMA - a bullish development - and the subsequent rally reinforces a bullish theme. Sights are on 5525.00, the Aug 22 high and a bull trigger. Key support to monitor is 5302.00, the Sep 2 low. Clearance of this level is required to reinstate a bearish theme.                                             
• In FX, the trend theme in EURUSD is unchanged, it remains bullish and the recent pullback appears corrective. However, support at 1.1680. the 50-day EMA, has been breached. A clear break of this average would signal scope for a deeper retracement and expose 1.1574 initially, the Aug 27 low. For bulls, initial firm resistance to watch is 1.1820, the Sep 23 high. GBPUSD traded lower Thursday, marking an extension of the current bear cycle. The move down has resulted in a break of 1.3474, a trendline support drawn from the Aug 1 low. This undermines a recent bullish theme. Note too that 1.3333, the Sep 3 low and a key support, has been pierced, opening 1.3282 next, the Aug 6 low. Initial resistance to watch is 1.3537, the Sep 23 high. A break of it would signal a reversal. USDJPY is firmer this week as the pair extends the recovery that started Sep 17. The move higher strengthens a bullish theme. A bullish candle pattern on Sep 17 - a hammer - provided an early reversal signal and remains valid. Also, MA studies remain in a bull-mode condition, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on 150.92, the Aug 1 high and key resistance. Initial firm support lies at 147.47, the 50-day EMA.                                
• On the commodity front, the trend condition in Gold is unchanged and a bull cycle remains in play. A fresh all-time high once again, on Tuesday, confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend and an extension of the sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The next objective is the $3800.0 handle. Initial firm support lies at $3622.2, the 20-day EMA. In the oil space, WTI futures are trading closer to this week’s highs. Despite recent gains, the trend condition remains bearish and the recovery is considered corrective - for now. Initial resistance to watch is $65.43, the Sep 2 high. A clear break of it would suggest potential for a stronger recovery, towards key short-term resistance at $68.43, the Jul 30 high. On the downside, key support and the bear trigger has been defined at $60.85, Aug 13 low.                     
• In the FI space, Bund futures are trading closer to their recent lows. Key support and the bear trigger remains exposed, it lies at 127.61, the Sep 3 low. Clearance of this level would cancel a recent bullish theme and confirm a continuation of the medium-term bear cycle. For bulls, a reversal higher would refocus attention on key resistance at 129.44, the Sep 10 high. First resistance is at 128.47, the 20-day EMA. Gilt futures traded lower Thursday. The move down strengthens a bearish theme and does suggest the end of the recent corrective phase between Sep 3 - 11. Note that on the continuation chart, moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. A continuation lower would open 89.94, the 76.4% retracement of the Sep 3 - 11 corrective phase. Initial resistance to watch is 91.28, the Sep 24 high.

Highlighting Key Longer-Term Trends:

MNI Tech Trend Monitor: https://emedia.marketnews.com/marketnewsintl/MNITechTrendMonitor.pdf

We introduce the MNI Tech Trend Monitor - This document highlights a selection of key longer-term trends that we have identified in markets that could be reaching inflection points, trend reversals/extensions or technically significant levels.

Covering:

• UK Gilt 10y Yield
• UK Gilt 30y Yield
• ICE USD Index
• Europe Banking Stock Index (SX7E)

FOREIGN EXCHANGE    

EURUSD TECHS: Breaches Support At The 50- Day EMA

• RES 4: 1.2063 2.236 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - 247 price swing
• RES 3: 1.2000 Round number resistance 
• RES 2: 1.1919/23 High Sep 17 / 2.0 proj of Feb 28 - Mar 18-27 swing
• RES 1: 1.1735/1820 20-day EMA / High Sep 23  
• PRICE: 1.1679 @ 06:13 BST Sep 26
• SUP 1: 1.1646 Low Sep 25 
• SUP 2: 1.1574 Low Aug 27
• SUP 3: 1.1528 Low Aug 5
• SUP 4: 1.1392 Low Aug 1 and bear trigger.

The trend theme in EURUSD is unchanged, it remains bullish and the recent pullback appears corrective. However, support at 1.1680. the 50-day EMA, has been breached. A clear break of this average would signal scope for a deeper retracement and expose 1.1574 initially, the Aug 27 low. For bulls, a resumption of gains would refocus attention on 1.1923, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance to watch is 1.1820, the Sep 23 high.       

GBPUSD TECHS: Trades Through Support 

• RES 4: 1.3789 High Jul 1 and key resistance    
• RES 3: .3661/3726 High Sep 18 / 17 
• RES 2: 1.3537 High Sep 23 1
• RES 1: 1.3427 Low Sep 24  
• PRICE: 1.3354 @ 06:35 BST Sep 26
• SUP 1: 1.3324 Low Sep 25
• SUP 2: 1.3282 Low Aug 6
• SUP 3: 1.3254 Low Aug 4
• SUP 4: 1.3144 38.2% retracement of the Jan 13 - Jul 1 bull cycle          

GBPUSD traded lower Thursday, marking an extension of the current bear cycle that started Sep 17. The move down has resulted in a break of 1.3474, a trendline support drawn from the Aug 1 low. This undermines a recent bullish theme. Note too that 1.3333, the Sep 3 low and a key support, has been pierced, opening 1.3282 next, the Aug 6 low. Initial resistance to watch is 1.3537, the Sep 23 high. A break of it would signal a reversal.           

EURGBP TECHS: Sights Are On The Bull Trigger          

• RES 4: 0.8835 High May 3 2023  
• RES 3: 0.8800 Round number resistance 
• RES 2: 0.8769 High Jul 28 and the bull trigger 
• RES 1: 0.8751 High Sep 25  
• PRICE: 0.8745 @ 06:49 BST Sep 26
• SUP 1: 0.8659/8597 50-day EMA / Low Aug 14 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 0.8562 50.0% retracement May 29 - Jul 28 upleg 
• SUP 3: 0.8540 Low Jun 30 
• SUP 4: 0.8514 61.8% retracement May 29 - Jul 28 upleg

EURGBP is trading at its recent highs and a bullish theme remains intact. The latest recovery paves the way for an extension towards the bull trigger at 0.8769, the Jul 28 high. Clearance of this level would strengthen the bull theme. Support to watch lies at 0.8597, the Aug 14 low. A breach of this level would instead reinstate a recent bearish threat. First support is 0.8659, the 50-day EMA. 

USDJPY TECHS: Bull Cycle Extends         

• RES 4: 151.62 61.8% retracement of the Jan 10 - Apr 22 bear leg
• RES 3: 151.21 High Mar 28 
• RES 2: 150.92 High Aug 1 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 149.96 Intraday high   
• PRICE: 149.72 @ 07:12 BST Sep 26
• SUP 1: 148.38/147.47 High Sep 22 / 50-day EMA 
• SUP 2: 146.77 Low Sep 18  
• SUP 3: 145.49 Low Sep 17 and a pivot support
• SUP 4: 144.23 Low Jul 7 

USDJPY is firmer this week as the pair extends the recovery that started Sep 17. The move higher strengthens a bullish theme. A bullish candle pattern on Sep 17 - a hammer - provided an early reversal signal and remains valid. Also, MA studies remain in a bull-mode condition, highlighting a dominant uptrend. 149.14, the Sep 3 high, has been cleared. Sights are on 150.92, the Aug 1 high and key resistance. Pivot support is 145.49, Sep 17 low.      

EURJPY TECHS: Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat   

• RES 4: 177.08 2.000 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - Apr 7 price swing 
• RES 3: 176.00 Round number resistance 
• RES 2: 175.43 High Jul 11 ‘24 and a key medium-term resistance
• RES 1: 174.94 High Sep 25   
• PRICE: 174.91 @ 07:35 BST Sep 26
• SUP 1: 173.53/172.24 20- and 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 170.97 Low Aug 14 
• SUP 3: 169.73/45 Low Jul 31 / 23.6% of the Feb 28 - Jul 28 bull leg 
• SUP 4: 168.46 Low Jul 1   

The trend set-up in EURJPY is unchanged, it remains bullish and the cross has traded to a fresh cycle high this week. This confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode too, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on 175.43, the Jul 11 ‘24 high and a key M/T resistance. On the downside, first support to watch lies at 173.53, the 20-day EMA.

AUDUSD TECHS: Trades Through The 50-day EMA   

• RES 4: 0.6763 1.382 proj of the Jun 23 - Jul 24 - Aug 21 price swing
• RES 3: 0.6726 1.236 proj of the Jun 23 - Jul 24 - Aug 21 price swing
• RES 2: 0.6660/6707 High Sep 18 / 17
• RES 1: 0.6585/6628 20-day EMA / High Sep 24 
• PRICE: 0.6540 @ 08:03 BST Sep 26
• SUP 1: 0.6527 61.8% retracement of the Aug 21 - Sep 17 bull leg 
• SUP 2: 0.6484 76.4% retracement of the Aug 21 - Sep 17 bull leg
• SUP 3: 0.6463/6415 Low Aug 27 / Low Aug 21 / 22 and a bear trigger 
• SUP 4: 0.6373 Low Jun 23

The AUDUSD uptrend remains intact and the latest pullback is considered corrective - for now. However, the pair has breached support at the 50-day EMA, at 0.6551. A clear break of this average signals scope for a deeper retracement and exposes 0.6527 (pierced), a Fibonacci retracement. For bulls, a reversal higher would refocus attention on 0.6707, the Sep 17 high. Initial FIRM resistance to watch is 0.6628, the Sep 24 high.

USDCAD TECHS: Breaches The Bull Trigger  

• RES 4: 1.4111 High Apr 10 
• RES 3: 1.4019 38.2% retracement of the Feb 3 - Jun 16 bear leg
• RES 2: 1.3968 High May 20 
• RES 1: 1.3950 High Sep 25  
• PRICE: 1.3943 @ 08:09 BST Sep 26
• SUP 1: 1.3885/3800 Low Sep 25 / 50-day EMA  
• SUP 2: 1.3727 Low Aug 29 and a bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.3689 Low Jul 28  
• SUP 4: 1.3637 Low Jul 25  

This week’s rally in USDCAD cancels a recent bearish theme and instead strengthens a bullish outlook. The pair has breached a key resistance at 1.3925, the May 20 high and bull trigger. The breach confirms a resumption of the bull cycle that started Jun 16. This paves the way for a climb towards 1.4019, a Fibonacci retracement point. On the downside, first key support lies at 1.3800, the 50-day EMA.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (Z5) Approaching Key Support       

• RES 4: 129.50 High Aug 5  
• RES 3: 129.44 High Sep 10 and key short-term resistance     
• RES 2: 129.13 High Sep 17 
• RES 1: 128.47 20-day EMA   
• PRICE: 128.01 @ 05:39 BST Sep 26
• SUP 1: 127.88 Low Sep 25       
• SUP 2: 127.61 Low Sep 3 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 127.46 1.00 proj of the Aug 14 - 15 - 28 price swing  
• SUP 4: 127.13 1.236 proj of the Aug 14 - 15 - 28 price swing  

Bund futures are trading closer to their recent lows. Key support and the bear trigger remains exposed, it lies at 127.61, the Sep 3 low. Clearance of this level would cancel a recent bullish theme and confirm a continuation of the medium-term bear cycle. For bulls, a reversal higher would refocus attention on key resistance at 129.44, the Sep 10 high. First resistance is at 128.47, the 20-day EMA.            

BOBL TECHS: (Z5) Fresh Cycle Low   

• RES 4: 118.170 Low Sep 10      
• RES 3: 118.090 High Sep 17 and a key short-term resistance 
• RES 2: 117.865 20-day EMA 
• RES 1: 117.600 Low Sep 22   
• PRICE: 117.510 @ 06:05 BST Sep 26
• SUP 1: 117.470 Low Sep 25  
• SUP 2: 117.450 1.000 proj of the Sep 8 - 12 - 17 price swing  
• SUP 3: 117.299 1.236 proj of the Sep 8 - 12 - 17 price swing  
• SUP 4: 117.080 Low Sep 2 (cont.) 

Bobl futures traded lower Thursday to a fresh cycle low. The move down confirms a resumption of the downtrend and maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Sights are on 117.450, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, key short-term resistance has been defined at 118.090, the Sep 18 high. A move above this level would signal a potential reversal. First resistance is 117.865, the 20-day EMA.      

SCHATZ TECHS: (Z5) Southbound   

• RES 4: 107.240 High Aug 4 
• RES 3: 107.225 High Aug 27 and the bull trigger 
• RES 2: 107.145/190 High Sep 11 / High Sep 5 and 8
• RES 1: 107.050 Low Aug 25 and Sep 2 and a recent breakout level 
• PRICE: 106.940 @ 06:10 BST Sep 26
• SUP 1: 106.920 Low Sep 25  
• SUP 2: 106.907 1.618 proj of the the Aug 27 - Sep 2 - 8 price swing  
• SUP 3: 106.900 Round number support
• SUP 4: 106.881 1.764 proj of the the Aug 27 - Sep 2 - 8 price swing

The trend structure in Schatz futures remains bearish. Thursday’s move lower delivered a fresh cycle low, confirming a resumption of the downtrend. This also maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Sights are on 106.907 next, a Fibonacci projection, ahead of the 106.9000 handle. On the upside, initial resistance is at 107.050, Aug 25 and Sep 2 low.       

GILT TECHS: (Z5) Pullback Extends      

• RES 4: 92.30 High Aug 7
• RES 3: 92.06 High Aug 14      
• RES 2: 92.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 91.28/82 High Sep 24 / 11
• PRICE: 90.50 @ Close Sep 25
• SUP 1: 89.94 76.4% retracement of the Sep 3 - 11 corrective phase    
• SUP 2: 90.31/89.36 Low Sep 4 / 3
• SUP 3: 89.36 Low Sep 3  
• SUP 4: 89.22 1.618 proj of the Aug 21 - 27 - 28 price swing  

Gilt futures traded lower Thursday. The move down strengthens a bearish theme and does suggest the end of the recent corrective phase between Sep 3 - 11. Note that on the continuation chart, moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. A continuation lower would open 89.94, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial resistance to watch is 91.28, the Sep 24 high.     

BTP TECHS: (Z5) Support Remains Intact For Now      

• RES 4: 122.56 0.764 proj of the Apr 9 - May 8 - 14 price swing (cont)
• RES 3: 121.88 0.618 proj of the Apr 9 - May 8 - 14 price swing (cont) 
• RES 2: 121.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 119.77/120.74 20-day EMA / High Aug 5 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 119.22 @ Close Sep 25
• SUP 1: 119.06/118.36 Low Sep 4 / 3         
• SUP 2: 118.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 117.70 2.236 proj of the Aug 5 - 12 - 14 price swing  
• SUP 4: 117.36 2.500 proj of the Aug 5 - 12 - 14 price swing 

The primary trend condition in BTP futures is unchanged, the set-up remains bullish and the latest pullback is considered corrective - for now. The strong rally that started Sep 3 reinforces a bull theme and signals the end of the corrective pullback between Aug 5 - Sep 3. Key resistance and the bull trigger is 120.74, Aug 5 high. A break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the trend. Key support to watch lies at 118.36, the Sep 3 low.

US‌‌ ‌‌10YR‌‌ ‌‌FUTURE‌‌ ‌‌TECHS:‌‌ (Z5) Corrective Pullback Extends  

• RES 4: 114-10   High Apr 7 (cont.)
• RES 3: 114-00   Round number resistance
• RES 2: 113-12/29 High Sep 18 / High Sep 11 and the bull trigger 
• RES 1: 113-00   High Sep 24 
• PRICE:‌‌ 112-10+ @ 19:58 BST Sep 25 
• SUP 1: 112-01   50.0% retracement of the Jul 15 - Sep 11 bull phase   
• SUP 2: 111-26   Low Aug 26
• SUP 3: 111-13+ Low Aug 18 and a key support  
• SUP 4: 111-01+ 76.4% retracement of the Jul 15 - Sep 11 bull phase  

Treasury futures have continued to weaken and remain in retracement mode. Today’s sell-off has resulted in a print below the 50-day EMA, at 112-10. A clear break of this average would undermine a bull theme and signal scope for a deeper retracement. This would open 111-13, the Aug 18 low and the next key support. Initial resistance to watch is 113-00, the Sep 24 high.                          

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (Z5) Outlook Remains Bullish   

• RES 4: 5600.00 Round number resistance 
• RES 3: 5564.82 0.764 proj of the Aug 1 - 22 - Sep 2 price swing  
• RES 2: 5525.00 High Aug 22 and a bull trigger  
• RES 1: 5506.00 High Sep 23     
• PRICE: 5464.00 @ 06:44 BST Sep 26
• SUP 1: 5425.64/5366.00 20-day EMA / Low Sep 17
• SUP 2: 5302.00 Low Sep 2 and a key short-term support  
• SUP 3: 5262.18 76.4% retracement of the Aug 1 - 22 bull leg   
• SUP 4: 5181.00 Low Aug 1 and key support  

Eurostoxx 50 futures are trading closer to their recent highs. The contract has cleared resistance around the 20-day EMA - a bullish development - and the subsequent rally reinforces a bullish theme. The move signals potential for a climb towards 5525.00, the Aug 22 high and a bull trigger. On the downside, key support to monitor is 5302.00, the Sep 2 low. Clearance of this level is required to reinstate a bearish theme.      

 E-MINI S&P: (Z5) Support Holds For Now  

• RES 4: 6812.29 2.382 proj of the Aug 20 - 28 - Sep 2 price swing 
• RES 3: 6800.00 Round number resistance 
• RES 2: 6787.63 1.382 proj of the Aug 1 - 15 - 20 price swing   
• RES 1: 6756.75 High Sep 22  
• PRICE: 6670.50 @ 07:22 BST Sep 26
• SUP 1: 6634.71 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 6577.25 Low Sep 10 
• SUP 3: 6519.15 50-day EMA 
• SUP 4: 6417.25 Low Aug 12 

A bull cycle in S&P E-Minis remains intact and the latest pullback is considered corrective - for now. The contract has pierced initial support at the 20-day EMA, at 6634.71. A clear breach of this average would signal scope for a deeper retracement, potentially towards the 50-day EMA, at 6519.15. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 6756.75, the Sep 22 high where a break would resume the primary uptrend.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (X5) Monitoring Resistance       

• RES 4: $79.16 - 2.618 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 3: $77.28 - 2.382 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 2: $76.39 - High Jun 23 and a bull trigger 
• RES 1: $69.75/71.93 - Intraday high / High Jul 30 and key resistance 
• PRICE: $69.61 @ 07:12 BST Sep 26
• SUP 1: $64.50 - Low Jun 30 and a key short-term support
• SUP 2: $60.82 - Low May 30
• SUP 3: $58.37 - Low May 5
• SUP 4: $57.81 - Low Apr 9 and a key support   

Brent futures are trading at this week’s highs. Despite recent gains, the trend condition remains bearish and the recovery is considered corrective. Initial resistance to watch is $69.53, the Sep 2 high. It has been pierced, a clear break of it would signal scope for a stronger recovery, potentially towards key short-term resistance at $71.93, the Jul 30 high. For bears, a reversal would refocus attention on $64.50, the Jun 30 low and bear trigger.   

WTI TECHS: (X5) Corrective Phase  

• RES 4: $76.89 - 2.764 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 3: $74.79- 2.500 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 2: $73.39 - High Jun 23 and a bull trigger 
• RES 1: $65.43/68.43 - High Sep2 / High Jul 30 and key resistance   
• PRICE: $65.26 @ 07:19 BST Sep 26
• SUP 1: $60.85 - Low Aug 13 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 2: $57.50 - Low May 30
• SUP 3: $54.89 - Low May 5
• SUP 4: $54.10 - Low Apr 9 and a key support

WTI futures are trading at this week’s highs. Despite recent gains, the trend condition remains bearish and the recovery is considered corrective - for now. Initial resistance to watch is $65.43, the Sep 2 high. A clear break of it would suggest potential for a stronger recovery, towards key short-term resistance at $68.43, the Jul 30 high. On the downside, key support and the bear trigger has been defined at $60.85, Aug 13 low.  

GOLD TECHS: Trend Needle Points North     

• RES 4: $3909.4 - 2.000 proj of the May 15 - Jun 16 - 30 price swing
• RES 3: $3831.4 - 1.764 proj of the Dec 30 ’24 - Apr 3 - 7 price swing
• RES 2: $3800.0 - Round number resistance
• RES 1: $3791.1 - High Sep 23             
• PRICE: $3751.3 @ 07:25 BST Sep 26
• SUP 1: $3683.8 - Low Sep 22  
• SUP 2: $3634.3 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: $3514.3 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: $3439.0 - High Jul 23  

The trend condition in Gold is unchanged and a bull cycle remains in play. A fresh all-time high once again, on Tuesday, confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend and an extension of the sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The next objective is the $3800.0 handle. Initial firm support lies at $3622.2, the 20-day EMA. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend.                

SILVER TECHS: MA Studies Continue To Highlight An Uptrend

• RES 4: $46.092 - 3.618 proj of the Jul 31 - Aug 14 - 20 price swing
• RES 3: $46.000 - Round number resistance
• RES 2: $45.497 - 3.382 proj of the Jul 31 - Aug 14 - 20 price swing
• RES 1: $45.233 - High Sep 25        
• PRICE: $45.110 @ 08:17 BST Sep 26
• SUP 1: $42.137 - 20-day EMA 
• SUP 2: $40.128 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $36.965 - Low Aug 20  
• SUP 4: $36.216 - Low Jul 31 and a key support

Trend signals in Silver remain bullish. The metal has traded higher this week as the bull cycle extends. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position too, reinforcing current conditions. Sights are $45.497 next, a 3.382 projection of the Jul 31 - Aug 14 - 20 price swing. Clearance of this level would pave the way for a climb towards the $46.00 handle. Initial firm support to watch lies at $42.137, the 20-day EMA.