MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - USDJPY Bull Cycle Extends

Price Signal Summary - USDJPY Bull Cycle Remains In Play  

• In the equity space, the trend set-up S&P E-Minis remains bullish. A fresh cycle high today confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on 6477.31, the 1.618 projection of the May 23 - Jun 11 - 23 price swing. Support at the 20-day EMA is at 6329.36. The trend condition in EUROSTOXX 50 futures remains bullish and short-term weakness appears corrective. Support at 5281.00, the Jul 1 / 4 low, remains intact. A clear break of this level would strengthen a bearish threat. For bulls, a stronger resumption of gains would refocus attention on the bull trigger at 5486.00, the May 20 high. A clear breach of it would resume the bull cycle and open 5500.00.                                   
• In FX, EURUSD maintains a softer tone and traded lower Wednesday. The pair has breached key support at the 50-day EMA, at 1.1554. A clear break of this average highlights a stronger reversal and the start of a correction. Scope is seen for a move towards 1.1373 next, the Jun 10 low. Firm resistance is seen at 1.1639, the 20-day EMA. A bearish theme in GBPUSD remains intact for now. This week’s move down has resulted in a breach of the bear trigger at 1.3365, the Jul 16 low. The break confirms a resumption of the downleg that started Jul 1 and highlights a clear breach of the trendline drawn from the Jan 13 low. Sights are on 1.3144, 38.2% of the Jan 13 - Jul 1 bull cycle. Firm resistance is seen at 1.3458, the 50-day EMA. A bull cycle in USDJPY remains in place and Wednesday's gains reinforce this theme - the pair breached the bull trigger at 149.18, the Jul 16 high. The move higher confirms a resumption of the uptrend, signalling scope for the 150.00 handle. First support is at 147.30, the 20-day EMA.                                
• On the commodity front, Gold has pulled back from its Jul 23 high. Short-term weakness is considered corrective - for now. However, the yellow metal has traded through support at $3321.1, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this level signals scope for a deeper retracement and exposes the next key support at $3248.7, the Jun 30 low. Key near-term resistance is $3439.0, the Jul 23 high. A break of this hurdle would be bullish. In the oil space, WTI futures have traded higher this week highlighting an extension of the current corrective cycle. $69.41, the 50.0% retracement of the Jun 23-24 downleg, has been cleared. A continuation higher would open $70.96 next, the 61.8% retracement point. On the downside, support to watch is the 50-day EMA, at $65.21.                
• In the FI space, Bund futures continue to trade above 128.84, the Jul 25 low. The sell-off on Jul 25 resulted in a test of the base of a 3.5-month range at the 129.00 handle. This key support remains intact for now. A hammer candle formation on Jul 25 and a bullish engulfing candle on Monday signals a potential reversal. Initial resistance to watch is 129.89, the 20-day EMA. A break of the Jul 25 low is required to confirm a resumption of the bear trend. Gilt futures are trading higher this week. Price has once again moved above the 20-day EMA, at 91.83 . Note too that the contract has also breached resistance at 92.15, the Jul 22 high. A continuation higher would open 92.42, the 50.0% retracement of the Jul 1 - 18 bear leg. On the downside, key support and the bear trigger has been defined at 91.08, the Jul 18 low.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE    

EURUSD TECHS: Bear Cycle Remains In Play    

• RES 4: 1.1851 High Sep 10 2021
• RES 3: 1.1829 High Jul 01 and the bull trigger 
• RES 2: 1.1789 High Jul 24 
• RES 1: 1.1554/1639 50-and 20-day EMA values 
• PRICE: 1.1455 @ 19:48 BST Jul 30
• SUP 1: 1.1401 Low Jul 30
• SUP 2: 1.1373 Low Jun 10
• SUP 3: 1.1313 Low May 30
• SUP 4: 1.1184 38.2% retracement of the Feb 3 - Jul 1 bull cycle  

EURUSD maintains a softer tone and traded lower Wednesday, extending this week’s bearish move. The pair has breached key support at the 50-day EMA, at 1.1554. A clear break of this average highlights a stronger reversal and the start of a correction. Scope is seen for a move towards 1.1373 next, the Jun 10 low. Firm resistance is seen at 1.1639, the 20-day EMA, where a break is required to signal a reversal.  

GBPUSD TECHS: Bearish Theme 

• RES 4: 1.3681 High Jul 4
• RES 3: 1.3620 High Jul 10 
• RES 2: 1.3458/1.3589 50-day EMA / High Jul 24 
• RES 1: 1.3365 Low Jul 16
• PRICE: 1.3267 @ 06:32 BST Jul 31
• SUP 1: 1.3228 Low Jul 30
• SUP 2: 1.3170 Low May 13
• SUP 3: 1.3144 38.2% retracement of the Jan 13 - Jul 1 bull cycle
• SUP 4: 1.3041 Low Apr 14   

A bearish theme in GBPUSD remains intact for now. This week’s move down has resulted in a breach of the bear trigger at 1.3365, the Jul 16 low. The break confirms a resumption of the downleg that started Jul 1 and highlights a clear breach of the trendline drawn from the Jan 13 low. Sights are on 1.3144, a Fibonacci retracement. Firm resistance is seen at 1.3458, the 50-day EMA. A break of this average is required to signal a reversal.               

EURGBP TECHS: Approaching The 50-Day EMA    

• RES 4: 0.8835 High May 3 2023  
• RES 3: 0.8800 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 0.8781 2.236 pro of the Mar 3 - 11 - 28 price swing
• RES 1: 0.8685/69 High Jul 29 / 27 and the bull trigger 
• PRICE: 0.8620 @ 06:40 BST Jul 31
• SUP 1: 0.8611 Intraday low 
• SUP 2: 0.8585 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 0.8540 Low Jun 30 
• SUP 4: 0.8508 Low Jun 27

The trend set-up in EURGBP remains bullish, however, Monday’s price pattern - a bearish engulfing candle - signalled a potential short-term reversal. The sell-off on Tuesday and Wednesday reinforces this bearish signal. Support at the 20-day EMA has been cleared highlighting scope for deeper correction. The 50-day EMA lies at 0.8585. For bulls, a move through 0.8769, the Jul 27 high, is required to confirm a resumption of the uptrend.  

USDJPY TECHS: Clears Bull Trigger

• RES 4: 151.62 61.8% retracement of the Jan 10 - Apr 22 bear leg
• RES 3: 150.49 High Apr 2  
• RES 2: 150.00 Round number resistance 
• RES 1: 149.54 High Jul 30
• PRICE: 149.25 @ 19:55 BST Jul 30
• SUP 1: 147.30 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 146.33/145.86 50-day EMA / Low Jul 24 
• SUP 3: 145.16 61.8% retracement of the Jul 1 - 16 bull cycle
• SUP 4: 144.21 76.4% retracement of the Jul 1 - 16 bull cycle  

A bull cycle in USDJPY remains in place and Wednesday's gains reinforce this theme - the pair breached the bull trigger at 149.18, the Jul 16 high. The move higher confirms a resumption of the uptrend, signalling scope for an extension towards the 150.00 handle. Pivot support to monitor is 146.33, the 50-day EMA. A clear breach of it would signal a reversal. First support is at 147.30, the 20-day EMA.    

EURJPY TECHS: Corrective Pullback Extends 

• RES 4: 177.08 2.000 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - Apr 7 price swing 
• RES 3: 175.43 High Jul 11 ‘24 and a key medium-term resistance
• RES 2: 174.86 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - Apr 7 price swing
• RES 1: 172.32/173.97 High Jul 29 / 28 and the bull trigger 
• PRICE: 170.28 @ 07:16 BST Jul 31
• SUP 1: 169.73/45 Intraday low / 23.6% of the Feb 28 - Jul 28 bull leg
• SUP 2: 169.05 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 168.46 Low Jul 1  
• SUP 4: 167.46 Low Jun 23   

The bullish trend condition in EURJPY remains intact and for now a pullback is considered corrective. The cross has traded through the 20-day EMA, signalling scope for a deeper correction that highlights potential for a move towards the 50-day EMA, at 169.05 - a key support. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position highlighting an uptrend. A break of Monday's 173.97 high would resume the bull cycle.  

AUDUSD TECHS: Breaches Support 

• RES 4: 0.6700 76.4% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Apr 9 bear leg
• RES 3: 0.6688 High Nov 7 ‘24
• RES 2: 0.6677 0.764 proj of the Jun 23 - Jul 11 - 17 price swing  
• RES 1: 0.6530/6625 High Jul 29 / 24 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 0.6472 @ 07:51 BST Jul 31
• SUP 1: 0.6426 Low Jul 30
• SUP 2: 0.6373 Low Jun 23 and a bear trigger 
• SUP 3: 0.6354 38.2% retracement of the Apr 9 - Jul 24 upleg  
• SUP 4: 0.6323 Low Apr 16

AUDUSD has traded through both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. This undermines a recent bullish theme and signals the likely start of a corrective cycle. Note that support 0.6455 the Jul 17 low, has also been cleared. The breach strengthens a bearish threat and signals scope for an extension towards 0.6373, the Jun 23 low. Key resistance has been defined at 0.6625 the Jul 24 high. It also represents the bull trigger.         

USDCAD TECHS: Corrective Cycle

• RES 4: 1.4019 38.2% retracement of the Feb 3 - Jun 16 bear leg  
• RES 3: 1.3920 High May 21  
• RES 2: 1.3862 High May 29 
• RES 1: 1.3845 High Jul 30   
• PRICE: 1.3820 @ 07:55 BST Jul 31
• SUP 1: 1.3701/3557 20-day EMA / Low Jul 03
• SUP 2: 1.3540 Low Jun 16 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.3503 1.618 proj of the Feb 3 - 14 - Mar 4 price swing
• SUP 4: 1.3473 Low Oct 2 2024

A short-term correction in USDCAD remains in play. Note that price has traded through the 50-day EMA at 1.3734 and this has been followed by a break of resistance at 1.3798, the Jun 23 high. Clearance of 1.3798 represents an important short-term bullish development, signalling scope for a stronger recovery. Sights are on 1.3862 next, the May 29 high. On the downside, initial firm support to watch lies at 1.3701, the 20-day EMA.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U5) Monitoring Resistance                              

• RES 4: 131.33 High Jun 20
• RES 3: 130.85 61.8% retracement of the Jun 13 - Jul 14 bear leg 
• RES 2: 130.13/76 50-day EMA / High Jul 22
• RES 1: 129.89 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 129.54 @ 05:46 BST Jul 31
• SUP 1: 128.84 Low Jul 25 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 2: 128.40 Low Apr 9
• SUP 3: 128.19 Low Mar 27 (cont) 
• SUP 4: 127.83 76.4% retracement of the Mar 11 - Apr 7 bull leg (cont)  

Bund futures continue to trade above 128.84, the Jul 25 low. The sell-off on Jul 25 resulted in a test of the base of a 3.5-month range at the 129.00 handle. This key support remains intact for now. A hammer candle formation on Jul 25 followed by a bullish engulfing candle on Monday signals a potential reversal. Initial resistance to watch is 129.89, the 20-day EMA. A break of the Jul 25 low is required to confirm a resumption of the bear trend.                                                       

BOBL TECHS: (U5) Remains Above Its Recent Low                            

• RES 4: 118.030 High Jul 22 and a key resistance   
• RES 3: 117.656 50-day EMA 
• RES 2: 117.547 20-day EMA 
• RES 1: 117.460 High Jul 28       
• PRICE: 117.220 @ 06:02 BST Jul 31 
• SUP 1: 116.970 Low Jul 25 and a bear trigger   
• SUP 2: 116.840 Low Mar 18 (cont)
• SUP 3: 116.800 Low Mar 17 (cont) 
• SUP 4: 116.637 76.4% retracement of the Mar 6 - Apr 7 bull leg (cont)

Bobl futures are trading closer to their recent lows following a pull back from the Jul 22 high. The contract has breached a key support at 117.200, the Jul 11 low, however price remains above the Jul 25 low. A bullish candle pattern on Jul 25 and 28 - a hammer formation followed by an engulfing signal - highlights a potential base. Initial resistance to watch is 117.547, the 20-day EMA. The bear trigger lies at 116.970, the Jul 25 low.                                   

SCHATZ TECHS: (U5) Still Trading Above Last Week’s Low                                  

• RES 4: 107.360 High Jul 22 and a key resistance  
• RES 3: 107.259 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 107.207 20-day EMA 
• RES 1: 107.155 Low Jul 28
• PRICE: 107.055 @ 06:20 BST Jul 31
• SUP 1: 107.010 Low Jul 25 and a bear trigger 
• SUP 2: 107.993 1.500 proj of the Jul 7 - 11 - 22 price swing 
• SUP 3: 106.964 1.618 proj of the Jul 7 - 11 - 22 price swing
• SUP 4: 106.928 1.764 proj of the Jul 7 - 11 - 22 price swing

The sell-off in Schatz futures between Jul 23 - 25, resulted in a break of key short-term support at 107.120, the Jul 11 low and a bear trigger. However, the contract has recovered from the Jul 25 low and recent price patterns highlight a potential base. A continuation higher would expose resistance at the 20-day EMA, at 107.207. The 50-day EMA is at 107.259. On the downside, key support and the bear trigger has been defined at 107.010, the Jul 25 low.                                                                    

GILT TECHS: (U5) Rally Extends                           

• RES 4: 93.00 Round number resistance     
• RES 3: 92.74 61.8% retracement of the Jul 1 - 18 bear leg     
• RES 2: 92.42 50.0% retracement of the Jul 1 - 18 bear leg   
• RES 1: 92.27 Intraday high 
• PRICE: 92.22 @ 08:15 BST Jul 31 
• SUP 1: 91.70 / 08 Low Jul 30 / 18 and the bear trigger   
• SUP 2: 90.97 76.4% retracement of the May 22 - Jul 1 bull leg
• SUP 3: 90.59 Low May 29   
• SUP 4: 90.46 Low May 23        

Gilt futures are trading higher this week. Price has once again moved above the 20-day EMA, at 91.83 . Note too that the contract has also breached resistance at 92.15, the Jul 22 high. A continuation higher would open 92.42, the 50.0% retracement of the Jul 1 - 18 bear leg. On the downside, key support and the bear trigger has been defined at 91.08, the Jul 18 low. Clearance of this level would resume the bear cycle that started Jul 1.                                        

 BTP TECHS: (U5) Short-Term Reversal Signal Still In Play    

• RES 4: 122.35 2.500 proj of the May 14 - 20 - 21 price swing
• RES 3: 122.00 Round number resistance 
• RES 2: 121.46/121.73 High Jul 22 / High Jun 13 and the bull trigger 
• RES 1: 120.92 High Jul 24  
• PRICE: 120.59@ Close Jul 30
• SUP 1: 119.59 Low Jul 25 and key short-term support         
• SUP 2: 119.48 Low May 26 
• SUP 3: 118.87 Low May 21  
• SUP 4: 118.51 Low May 14 and key support 

The primary trend condition in BTP futures remains bullish and recent weakness appears to have been corrective. A doji candle on Jul 25 highlights a potential bullish reversal. A continuation higher would open 121.46, the Jul 22 high and 121.73, the Jul 13 high and a bull trigger. Clearance of this latter level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend. Key short-term support has been defined at 119.59, the Jul 25 low.

US‌‌ ‌‌10YR‌‌ ‌‌FUTURE‌‌ ‌‌TECHS:‌‌ (U5) Fades on Fed

• RES 4: 112-15   61.8% retracement of the Apr 7 - 11 sell-off
• RES 3: 112-12+ High Jul 1 and a bull trigger
• RES 2: 111-28   High Jul 3 
• RES 1: 111-14+ High Jul 22 & Jul 30
• PRICE:‌‌ 110-31+ @ 20:21 BST Jul 30
• SUP 1: 110-19+/08+ Low Jul 24 / Low Jul 14 & 16        
• SUP 2: 110-03   76.4% retracement of the May 22 - Jul 1 bull leg
• SUP 3: 109-28   Low Jun 6 and 11
• SUP 4: 109.25   Low May 27

Treasury futures traded higher Tuesday, but faltered into the Wednesday close on the Fed decision. Recent gains resulted in a break of the 20-day EMA, strengthening the recovery that began mid-July. Note too that resistance at 111-13+, the Jul 10 high, has been pierced. A clear break of it would highlight a stronger reversal and open 111-28, the Jul 3 high. Key support is 110-08+, the Jul 14 and 16 low. Clearance of this level would reinstate a bearish theme. First support is at 110-19+, the Jul 24 low.                      

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (U5) Trend Needle Points North     

• RES 4: 5575.00 High Mar 3 and a major resistance (cont) 
• RES 3: 5526.00 High Mar 19 / 20 (cont)
• RES 2: 5486.00/88.00 High May 20 and a bull trigger / High Jul 10
• RES 1: 5449.00 High Jul 27   
• PRICE: 5424.00 @ 06:28 BST Jul 31 
• SUP 1: 5292.00 Low Jul 22   
• SUP 2: 5281.00/5194.00 Low Jul 1 & 4 / Low Jun 23 and bear trigger
• SUP 3: 5138.00 High Apr 30 
• SUP 4: 5078.00 Low Apr 30  

The trend condition in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains bullish and short-term weakness appears corrective. Support at 5281.00, the Jul 1 / 4 low, remains intact. A clear break of this level would strengthen a bearish threat. For bulls, a stronger resumption of gains would refocus attention on the bull trigger at 5486.00, the May 20 high. It has recently been pierced, a clear breach of it would resume the bull cycle and open 5500.00.                

E-MINI S&P: (U5) Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat     

• RES 4: 6523.63 1.764 proj of the May 23 - Jun 11 - 23 price swing 
• RES 3: 6500.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 6477.31 1.618 proj of the May 23 - Jun 11 - 23 price swing
• RES 1: 6459.25 Intraday high      
• PRICE: 645475 @ 07:23 BST Jul 31  
• SUP 1: 6366.75/6329.36 Low Jul 30 / 20-day EMA  
• SUP 2: 6288.25 Low Jul 17    
• SUP 3: 6241.00 Low Jul 16
• SUP 4: 6181.96 50-day EMA 

The trend set-up in S&P E-Minis remains bullish. A fresh cycle high today confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a clear dominant uptrend. Sights are on 6477.31, a Fibonacci projection. Key support is at the 50-day EMA, at 6181.96. Support at the 20-day EMA is at 6329.36.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (V5) Corrective Cycle Extends     

• RES 4: $83.02 - 3.000 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 3: $81.07 - 2.764 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 2: $79.86 - 2.618 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 1: $72.89/77.73 - 61.8% of the Jun 23-30 downleg / High Jun 23
• PRICE: $72.41 @ 07:09 BST Jul 31
• SUP 1: $67.80/65.06 - 50-day EMA / Low Jun 30 
• SUP 2: $60.96 - Low May 30
• SUP 3: $58.18 - Low May 5
• SUP 4: $57.74 - Low Apr 9 and a key support   

Brent futures have traded higher this week marking an extension of the corrective cycle that started Jun 30. The contract has traded through $71.40, the 50.0% retracement of the Jun 23 - 50 downleg. The next resistance to watch is $72.89, the 61.8% retracement point. On the downside, a reversal would refocus attention on key support and the bear trigger at $65.06, the Jun 30 low. A break of this level would resume the recent bearish theme.              

WTI TECHS: (U5) Corrective Cycle Still In Play              

• RES 4: $81.12 - 3.000 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 3: $80.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 2: $77.75 - 2.618 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 1: $70.96/75.98 - 61.8% of the Jun 23-24 downleg / High Jun 23
• PRICE: $69.86 @ 07:17 BST Jul 31 
• SUP 1: $65.21/62.84 - 50-day EMA / Low Jun 24 and bear trigger  
• SUP 2: $58.17 - Low May 30
• SUP 3: $54.66 - Low May 5
• SUP 4: $54.01 - Low Apr 9 and a key support  

WTI futures have traded higher this week highlighting an extension of the current corrective cycle. $69.41, the 50.0% retracement of the Jun 23-24 downleg, has been pierced. A continuation higher would open $70.96 next, the 61.8% retracement point. On the downside, support to watch is the 50-day EMA, at $65.21. The average has been pierced, a clear break of it would expose $58.17, the May 30 low.     

GOLD TECHS: Sell-Off Exposes Key Support                                           

• RES 4: $3547.9 - 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - Apr 7 price swing
• RES 3: $3500.1 - High Apr 22 and bull trigger
• RES 2: $3451.3 - High Jun 16  
• RES 1: $3373.6/3439.0 - High Jul 25 / 23             
• PRICE: 3303.00 @ 07:25 BST Jul 31 
• SUP 1: $3268.2 - Low Jul 30 
• SUP 2: $3248.7 - Low Jun 30 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $3204.7 - Low May 20
• SUP 4: $3121.0 - Low May 15 and key support 

Gold has pulled back from its Jul 23 high. Short-term weakness is considered corrective - for now - and a bull cycle that started Jun 30 remains intact. However, the yellow metal has traded through support at $3321.1, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this level signals scope for a deeper retracement and exposes the next key support at $3248.7, the Jun 30 low. Key near-term resistance is $3439.0, the Jul 23 high. A break of this hurdle would be bullish.            

SILVER TECHS: Trend Structure Remains Bullish                      

• RES 4: $41.064 - 1.764 proj of the Apr 7 - 25 - May 15 swing
• RES 3: $40.285 - 1.618 proj of the Apr 7 - 25 - May 15 swing
• RES 2: $40.000 - Psychological round number
• RES 1: $39.655 - 1.500 proj of the Apr 7 - 25 - May 15 swing    
• PRICE: $37.134@ 08:04 BST Jul 31  
• SUP 1: $36.545 - 50-day EMA and a key support 
• SUP 2: $35.285 - Low Jun 24
• SUP 3: $33.967 - Low Jun 3 
• SUP 4: $31.651 - Low May 15

Trend signals in Silver remain bullish and the latest pullback is considered corrective. Recent gains reinforce a bullish theme, the metal has traded above resistance at $39.132, the Jul 14 high. The break confirms a resumption of the uptrend. Note too that MA studies remain in a bull-mode position. Support to watch lies at $36.545, the 50-day EMA. A resumption of gains would signal scope for $39.655 next, a Fibonacci projection.