MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - USDCAD Trend Remains South

Price Signal Summary – USDCAD Trend Remains South

• The trend condition in S&P E-Minis remains bullish and the contract is holding on to the bulk of its recent gains. For now, the most recent pullback is considered corrective. Eurostoxx 50 futures are trading closer to their recent lows. The latest pullback t has resulted in a breach of the 50-day EMA at 5298.64. Price has also pierced 5255.00, the May 23 low.
• A sharp sell-off in GBPUSD Tuesday resulted in a breach of support at the 20-day EMA, at 1.3496. The latest move down is considered corrective and key trend signals remain bullish. The next important support lies at 1.3350, the 50-day EMA. USDJPY is holding on to its most recent gains. A bearish trend condition remains intact and recent gains are considered corrective. The trend needle in USDCAD points south and fresh cycle lows last week and again on Monday, reinforce a bearish theme. Short-term gains are considered corrective.
• A bullish theme in Gold remains intact and recent gains reinforce current conditions. Medium-term trend signals are bullish too - moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. WTI futures traded sharply higher last week and last Friday’s early rally marked an acceleration of the current bull phase. Price action is likely to remain volatile near-term, and from a technical standpoint, the trend is in an extreme overbought position.
• Bund futures are unchanged and the contract continues to trade below last Friday’s high. For now, the latest move down is considered corrective and key short-term support to watch lies at 130.12, the Jun 5 low. A bullish condition is Gilt futures remains intact and last Friday’s steep sell-off from the session high is - for now - considered corrective. The move higher last week marks an extension of the recent breach of resistance at 91.87, the May 20 high.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE    

EURUSD TECHS: Bullish Conditions Remain Intact                      

• RES 4: 1.1783 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - 27 price swing
• RES 3: 1.1696 1.618 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - 27 price swing
• RES 2: 1.1685 76.4% retracement of the Jan ‘21 - Sep ‘22 downleg
• RES 1: 1.1631 High Jun 12
• PRICE: 1.1504 @ 06:06 BST Jun 18
• SUP 1: 1.1425 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.1286/1.1210 50-day EMA and a pivot level / Low May 29
• SUP 3: 1.1131 Low May 16 
• SUP 4: 1.1065 Low May 12 and a reversal trigger 

The trend set-up in EURUSD remains bullish and short-term weakness is for now considered corrective. Recent gains have resulted in a breach of 1.1573, the Apr 21 high. This strengthens the bullish theme and confirms a resumption of this year's uptrend. Scope is seen for a climb towards 1.1696, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support is at 1.1425, the 20-day EMA. The 50-day EMA lies at 1.1286. Short-term weakness is considered corrective.      

GBPUSD TECHS: Corrective Pullback Extends     

• RES 4: 1.3800 Round number resistance 
• RES 3: 1.3757 1.618 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - 7 price swing
• RES 2: 1.3681 1.500 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - 7 price swing
• RES 1: 1.3632 High Jun 13 and the bull trigger 
• PRICE: 1.34441 @ 06:17 BST Jun 18
• SUP 1: 1.3415 Low Jun 17
• SUP 2: 1.3350 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.3237 Trendline support drawn from the Jan 13 low 
• SUP 4: 1.3140 Low May 12 and key support

A sharp sell-off in GBPUSD Tuesday resulted in a breach of support at the 20-day EMA, at 1.3496. The latest move down is considered corrective and key trend signals remain bullish. The next important support lies at 1.3350, the 50-day EMA. On the upside, the key resistance and bull trigger has been defined at 1.3632, the Jun 13 high. A break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the primary uptrend.        

EURGBP TECHS: Fresh Short-Term Cycle High     

• RES 4: 0.8624 High Apr 21    
• RES 3: 0.8592 61.8% retracement of the Apr 11 - May 29 downleg
• RES 2: 0.8566 High Apr 24 
• RES 1: 0.8560 Intraday high 
• PRICE: 0.8548 @ 07:04 BST Jun 18
• SUP 1: 0.8498/8454 Low Jun 16 / 50-day EMA 
• SUP 2: 0.8407/8356 Low Jun 4 / Low May 29 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 3: 0.8327 1.382 proj of the Apr 11 - 16 - 21 price swing
• SUP 4: 0.8316 Low Mar 28 and a key support

A bullish theme in EURGBP remains intact and last week’s gains plus this week’s extension, reinforce current conditions. The cross remains above the 50-day EMA and the breach of the average highlights a stronger reversal. This signals scope for a climb towards 0.8592, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, support to watch lies at 0.8454, the 50-day EMA. Clearance of this level would highlight a possible reversal.   

USDJPY TECHS: Trend Signals Remain Bearish     

• RES 4: 150.49 High Apr 2   
• RES 3: 149.28 High Apr 3
• RES 2: 147.67/148.65 High May 14 / 12 and a reversal trigger
• RES 1: 145.46/146.28 High Jun 11 / High May 29 and key resistance
• PRICE: 144.98 @ 06:49 BST Jun 18
• SUP 1: 142.80/12 Low Jun 11 / Low May 27 and a key support
• SUP 2: 141.96 76.4% retracement of the Apr 22 - May 12 bull leg
• SUP 3: 139.89 Low Apr 22 and a bear trigger 
• SUP 4: 138.82 1.50 proj of the Feb 12 - Mar 11 - 28 price swing 

USDJPY is holding on to its most recent gains. A bearish trend condition remains intact and recent gains are considered corrective. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position highlighting a dominant downtrend. A resumption of weakness would open 142.12, the May 27 low. On the upside, key short-term resistance is 146.28, the May 29 high. First resistance is 145.46, Jun 11 high.   

EURJPY TECHS: Trend Needle Points North   

• RES 4: 169.91 1.236 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - Apr 7 price swing  
• RES 3: 168.89 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 168.01 High Jul 26 ‘24
• RES 1: 167.61 High Jun 17
• PRICE: 166.87 @ 07:12 BST Jun 18 
• SUP 1: 165.91/164.89 Low Jun 16 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 163.48 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 162.80/161.78 Low Jun 3 / Low May 26 
• SUP 4: 161.09 Low May 23 and key support   

The trend set-up in EURJPY remains bullish and a fresh cycle high this week reinforces current conditions. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. 167.47, 61.8% of the Jul 11 - Aug 5 ‘24 bear leg, has been pierced. This signals scope for a climb towards 168.01 next, the Jul 26 ‘24 high. Initial support to watch lies at 164.89, the 20-day EMA.     

AUDUSD TECHS: Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat     

• RES 4: 0.6700 76.4% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Apr 9 bear leg  
• RES 3: 0.6688 High Nov 7 ‘24
• RES 2: 0.6603 High Nov 11 ‘24
• RES 1: 0.6552 High June 16
• PRICE: 0.6508 @ 07:55 BST Jun 18
• SUP 1: 0.6457/6429 Low Jun 13 / 50-day EMA 
• SUP 2: 0.6357 Low May 12    
• SUP 3: 0.6275 Low Apr 14 
• SUP 4: 0.6181 Low Apr 11 

The trend set-up in AUDUSD remains bullish and the pair is holding on to the bulk of its latest gains. Key support at 0.6429, the 50-day EMA, is intact. A clear break of this EMA is required to highlight a potential short-term reversal. The pair has recently cleared a key resistance at 0.6515, the May 7 high, confirming a resumption of the uptrend. Sights are on 0.6550, a Fibonacci retracement.  

USDCAD TECHS: Path Of Least Resistance Remains Down       

• RES 4: 1.4200 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 1.4111 High Apr 4
• RES 2: 1.3843/1.4016 50-day EMA / High May 12 and 13
• RES 1: 1.3713 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.3652 @ 08:05 BST Jun 18
• SUP 1: 1.3540/3517 Low Jun 16 / 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 2: 1.3503 1.618 proj of the Feb 3 - 14 - Mar 4 price swing
• SUP 3: 1.3473 Low Oct 2 2024
• SUP 4: 1.3410 1.764 proj of the Feb 3 - 14 - Mar 4 price swing

The trend needle in USDCAD points south and fresh cycle lows last week and again on Monday, reinforce a bearish theme. Short-term gains are considered corrective. Support at 1.3686, the May 26 low and a bear trigger, has been cleared, confirming a resumption of the downtrend. This maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Sights are on 1.3517 next, envelope-based support. Resistance at the 20-day EMA is at 1.3713.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U5) Trading Below Last Week’s High                         

• RES 4: 132.42 2.000 proj of the May 14 - 20 - 22 price swing
• RES 3: 132.00 Round number resistance    
• RES 2: 131.85/95 High Apr 22 and the bull trigger / High Jun 13
• RES 1: 131.27 61.8% retracement of the Jun 13 - 16 downleg
• PRICE: 130.77 @ 05:45 BST Jun 18
• SUP 1: 130.17 Low Jun 16              
• SUP 2: 130.12 Low Jun 5 a key short-term support 
• SUP 3: 129.30 Low May 22   
• SUP 4: 128.97 Low May 14 and a reversal trigger  

Bund futures are unchanged and the contract continues to trade below last Friday’s high. For now, the latest move down is considered corrective and key short-term support to watch lies at 130.12, the Jun 5 low. A break of this level would highlight a stronger reversal and undermine the bullish theme. Key short-term resistance and the bull trigger, has been defined at 131.95, the Jun 13 high.                                                 

BOBL TECHS: (U5) Monitoring Support                      

• RES 4: 118.649 1.382 proj of the May 21 - Jun 3 - Jun 5 price swing
• RES 3: 118.531 1.236 proj of the May 21 - Jun 3 - Jun 5 price swing
• RES 2: 118.390 High Jun 13 and a bull trigger 
• RES 1: 117.065 61.8% retracement of the Jun 13 - 16 downleg   
• PRICE: 117.770 @ 05:50 BST Jun 18  
• SUP 1: 117.530 Low Jun 5 and a key near-term support 
• SUP 2: 117.470 Low May 21 
• SUP 3: 117.470 Low May 21
• SUP 4: 116.660 Low Mar 27       

Bobl futures remain in a bull cycle, however, the contract continues to trade below last Friday’s high. The latest pullback has exposed key short-term support at 117.530, the Jun 5 low. A break of this level would highlight a stronger reversal and cancel the recent bull theme. This would open 117.470, the May 21 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 118.390, the Jun 13 high. A breach of this level would be bullish.                             

SCHATZ TECHS: (U5) Support Remains Exposed                          

• RES 4: 107.690 High Apr 30 
• RES 3: 107.610 High May 23 and a key near-term resistance
• RES 2: 107.430/475 High Jun 13 / High May 27
• RES 1: 107.319 20-day EMA 
• PRICE: 107.220 @ 06:03 BST Jun 18
• SUP 1: 107.195/185 Low Jun 6 / 16    
• SUP 2: 107.125 Low May 12 and a key support
• SUP 3: 107.000 Round number support 
• SUP 4: 106.890 2.000 proj of the May 23 - 29 - 30 price swing

Schatz futures remain below last week’s high. Support to watch lies at 107.195, the Jun 6 low. It has been pierced, a clear break of this level would reinstate a bearish threat and signal scope for an extension towards 107.125, the May 12 low. On the upside, a breach of 107.470, the May 30 high, is required to strengthen a bullish condition. First key resistance is 107.430, the Jun 13 high.                                                            

GILT TECHS: (U5) Support Remains Intact                         

• RES 4: 94.15 2.000 proj of the May 22 - 27 - 29 price swing
• RES 3: 94.00 Round number resistance      
• RES 2: 93.73 1.764 proj of the May 22 - 27 - 29 price swing
• RES 1: 93.13./93.68 61.8% of Jun 13 - 16 downleg / High Jun 13
• PRICE: 92.69 @ Close Jun 17
• SUP 1: 92.23 Low Jun 16 
• SUP 2: 92.17 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 91.56 Low Jun 9   
• SUP 4: 91.44 Low Jun 8        

A bullish condition is Gilt futures remains intact and last Friday’s steep sell-off from the session high is - for now - considered corrective. The move higher last week marks an extension of the recent breach of resistance at 91.87, the May 20 high. This signals scope for a test of 93.73, a Fibonacci projection point. Note the uptrend is in overbought territory, a deeper pullback would unwind this position. Initial firm support lies at 92.17, the 20-day EMA.                                   

BTP TECHS: (U5) Corrective Pullback

• RES 4: 122.71 2.764proj of the May 14 - 20 - 21 price swing
• RES 3: 122.35 2.500 proj of the May 14 - 20 - 21 price swing 
• RES 2: 122.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 121.73 High Jun 13 and the bull trigger 
• PRICE: 120.82 @ Close Jun 17 
• SUP 1: 120.35 Low Jun 16      
• SUP 2: 119.48 Low May 26 
• SUP 3: 118.87 Low May 21  
• SUP 4: 118.51 Low May 14 and key support 

The trend condition in BTP futures is unchanged, it remains bullish and the latest pullback appears corrective. Fresh cycle highs last week reinforce a bull theme and maintain the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on the 122.00 handle next. Key support to watch lies at 118.51, the May 14 low. A clear break of this level would highlight a reversal. First support is 120.35, Monday’s low.                   

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M5) Support Has Been Pierced  

• RES 4: 5565.23 1.618 proj of the Apr 7 - 9 - 10 price swing   
• RES 3: 5516.00 High Mar 3 and the key bull trigger
• RES 2: 5475.00 High May 20
• RES 1: 5355.88 20-day EMA  
• PRICE: 5275.00 @ 06:24 BST Jun 18 
• SUP 1: 5242.00 Low Jun 13  
• SUP 2: 5178.00 Low May 6 
• SUP 3: 5081.61 38.2% retracement of the Apr 7 - May 20 bull leg
• SUP 4: 5055.00 Low Apr 30  

Eurostoxx 50 futures are trading closer to their recent lows. The latest pullback t has resulted in a breach of the 50-day EMA at 5298.64. Price has also pierced 5255.00, the May 23 low. A clear break of both support points would signal a short-term top and highlight scope for a deeper retracement. This would open 5178.00, the May 6 low and 5081.16, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial resistance to watch is 5355.88, the 20-day EMA.               

E-MINI S&P: (U5) Trend Structure Remains Bullish  

• RES 4: 6200.00 1.500 proj of the Apr 7 - 10 - 21 price swing     
• RES 3: 6172.50 High Feb 24  
• RES 2: 6134.00 High Feb 26
• RES 1: 6128.75 High Jun 11 and the bull trigger   
• PRICE: 6053.25 @ 07:27 BST Jun 18  
• SUP 1: 5979.00/5896.83 Low Jun 13 / 50-day EMA
• SUP 2:5811.50 Low May 23    
• SUP 3: 5645.75 Low May 7
• SUP 4: 5500.00 Low Apr 30

The trend condition in S&P E-Minis remains bullish and the contract is holding on to the bulk of its recent gains. For now, the most recent pullback is considered corrective. The contract has pierced support at 6003.83, the 20-day EMA. A clear breach of this average would expose the 50-day EMA, at 5896.83. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 6128.75, the Jun 11 high.        

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (Q5) Trading Closer To Its Recent Highs 

• RES 4: $83.46 - 2.764 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May price swing
• RES 3: $82.13 - 2.618 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May price swing 
• RES 2: $80.00 - Psychological round number 
• RES 1: $78.50 - High Jun 13   
• PRICE: $76.19 @ 07:06 BST Jun 18
• SUP 1: $70.41 - Low Jun 13 
• SUP 2: $66.78 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $62.09 - Low May 30
• SUP 4: $57.78 - Low Apr 9 and a key support   

A bull cycle in Brent futures remains in play and the contract is trading closer to its recent highs. Price action is likely to remain volatile near-term and from a technical standpoint, the trend is in an extreme overbought position. A continuation higher would expose the $80.00 handle next. A firm short-term support is seen at $70.41, the Jun 13 low. A break of this level would signal scope for a deeper retracement.           

WTI TECHS: (N5) Uptrend Remains Intact          

• RES 4: $84.23 - 3.000 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 3: $81.93 - 2.764 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing 
• RES 2: $80.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 1: $77.62 - High Jun 13 
• PRICE: $74.47 @ 07:17 BST Jun 18 
• SUP 1: $68.49 - Low Jun 13
• SUP 2: $63.94 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $59.74 - Low May 30 
• SUP 4: $54.33 - Low Apr 9 and a key support  

WTI futures traded sharply higher last week and last Friday’s early rally marked an acceleration of the current bull phase. Price action is likely to remain volatile near-term, and from a technical standpoint, the trend is in an extreme overbought position. A continuation higher would expose the $80.00 handle. A firm support is noted $68.49, the Jun 13 low. A breach of this level would signal scope for a deeper retracement.    

GOLD TECHS: Bullish Phase Remains In Play                                   

• RES 4: $3578.0 - 2.000 proj of the Dec 19 - Feb 24 - Feb 28 swing
• RES 3: $3547.9 - 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - Apr 7 price swing
• RES 2: $3500.1 - High Apr 22 and bull trigger
• RES 1: $3451.3 - High Jun 16          
• PRICE: $3382.2 @ 07:25 BST Jun 18 
• SUP 1: $3344.8/3271.7 - 20- and 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: $3204.7 - Low May 20 
• SUP 3: $3121.0 - Low May 15 and key support 
• SUP 4: $3100.0 - Round number support 

A bullish theme in Gold remains intact and recent gains reinforce current conditions. Medium-term trend signals are bullish too - moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Resistance at $3435.6, the May 7 high, has been pierced. A clear break of this level would strengthen the uptrend and open $3500.1, the Apr 22 all-time high. Initial key support to monitor is $3271.7, the 50-day EMA.       

SILVER TECHS: Bullish Trend Sequence                  

• RES 4: $39.026 - 1.382 proj of the Apr 7 - 25 - May 15 price swing 
• RES 3: $38.246 - 1.236 proj of the Apr 7 - 25 - May 15 price swing
• RES 2: $38.000 - Round number resistance 
• RES 1: $37.317 - Intraday high  
• PRICE: $37.220 @ 08:13 BST Jun 18 
• SUP 1: $34.184 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $33.970/31.651 - 50-day EMA / Low May 15
• SUP 3: $30.915/28.351 - Low Apr 11 / 7 and the bear trigger  
• SUP 4: $27.686 - Low Sep 6 ‘24  

A bull wave in Silver remains in play and Tuesday’s fresh cycle high, reinforces this condition. The metal has recently traded through a resistance at $34.903, the Oct 23 ‘24 high and a key bull trigger. The clear break of it marks an important medium-term bullish development. Sights are on the $38.00 handle next. On the downside, initial support to watch lies at $34.184, the 20-day EMA.