MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - USDCAD Pressures Bear Case

Price Signal Summary – USDCAD Rally Pressures Bear Case

• S&P E-Minis remain in a short-term bear-mode condition and a steep sell-off yesterday reinforces current conditions. The breach of 6655.70, the Nov 7 low cancels recent bullish signals and signals scope for an extension of the corrective cycle. A medium-term bull trend in EUROSTOXX 50 futures remains intact, however, the past week’s sell-off highlights a stronger corrective cycle. The contract has breached two key support points; 5600.89, the 50-day EMA, and 5621.00, the base of a bull channel.        
• Fresh cycle highs this week in USDJPY reinforce current strong bullish conditions. Wednesday’s gains also signal an acceleration of the uptrend. Note too that moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position. A bear threat in AUDUSD remains present and this week’s extension reinforces the bearish theme. The pair has pierced support at 0.6440, the Oct 14 low and a key short-term level. USDCAD rallied again Thursday, further undermining a bear theme. A continuation higher would expose 1.4140, the Nov 5 high and the next notable resistance. Note too that the top of the bull channel, drawn from the Jul 23 low, is at 1.4181.
• The bearish phase in Gold between Oct 20 and 28 appears to have been a correction and has allowed a recent overbought condition to unwind. The recovery since Oct 28 does suggest the correction is over. The move down this week in WTI futures strengthens a bearish theme. A stronger resumption of the bear leg would pave the way for a move towards key support and the bear trigger at $55.99, the Oct 20 low.
• A bear cycle in Bund futures remains intact and a fresh cycle low yesterday reinforces a bear theme. Recent weakness has resulted in a print below support at 128.52, 76.4% of the Sep 25 - Oct 17 bull leg. A sharp sell-off in Gilt futures on Wednesday strengthens a bearish threat and cancels a recent bullish condition. The contract has traded through support at 91.82, the Sep 11 high. 

[CROSS ASSET]: Refreshing the MNI Tech Trend Monitor, Adding Gold, Silver, JPY

• We refresh our Global Tech Trend Monitor, adding longer-term techs for Spot Gold, Silver and USDJPY, while refreshing levels for UK Gilt 10y and 30y yields as well as the Europe Banking Stock Index (SX7E).
• See full document here:  https://emedia.marketnews.com/marketnewsintl/MNITechTrendMonitorOct25.pdf

FOREIGN EXCHANGE    

EURUSD TECHS: Bearish Outlook 

• RES 4: 1.1728 High Oct 17
• RES 3: 1.1694 50.0% retracement of the Sep 17 - Nov 5 bear leg  
• RES 2: 1.1656 High Nov 13 and key resistance
• RES 1: 1.1581/1613 20- and 50-day EMA EMA values
• PRICE: 1.1537 @ 06:01 GMT Nov 21
• SUP 1: 1.1504/1469 Low Nov 19 / 5 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 2: 1.1425 1.500 proj of the Oct 17 - 22 - 28 price swing
• SUP 3: 1.1392 Low Aug 1 and bear trigger 
• SUP 4: 1.1313 Low May 30

The short-term trend structure in EURUSD remains bearish. The pair is trading below resistance at 1.1656, the Nov 13 high. Clearance of this hurdle would highlight a stronger reversal. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend and continue to suggest that gains since Nov 5 are corrective. Sights are on key support at 1.1469, the Nov 5 low and bear trigger.   

GBPUSD TECHS: Approaching The Bear Trigger

• RES 4: 1.3368 50.0% retracement of the Sep 17 - Nov 4 bear leg    
• RES 3: 1.3284 38.2% retracement of the Sep 17 - Nov 4 bear leg   
• RES 2: 1.3279 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.3174/3206 20-day EMA / High Nov 13
• PRICE: 1.3091 @ 06:33 GMT Nov 21
• SUP 1: 1.3038/10 Low Nov 19 / Low Nov 4 & 5 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 2: 1.2971 1.382 proj of the Sep 17 - 25 - Oct 1 price swing
• SUP 3: 1.2945 50.0% retracement of the Jan 13 - Jul 1 bull leg
• SUP 4: 1.2877 1.618 proj of the Sep 17 - 25 - Oct 1 price swing          

A bearish theme in GBPUSD remains intact and gains since Nov 4 appear to have been corrective. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode condition, highlighting a dominant downtrend. A reversal through 1.3010, the Nov 4 / 5 low, would confirm a resumption of the downtrend. Key short-term resistance is at the 20-day EMA, at 1.3174. A clear break of it would signal a stronger corrective cycle.

EURGBP TECHS: Bull Cycle Remains Intact 

• RES 4: 0.8893 2.000 proj of the Sep 15 - 25 - Oct 8 price swing    
• RES 3: 0.8875 High Apr 25 
• RES 2: 0.8868 61.8% retracement of the 2022 - 2024 bear leg
• RES 1: 0.8865 High Nov 14
• PRICE: 0.8823 @ 07:07 GMT Nov 21
• SUP 1: 0.8791 20-day EMA   
• SUP 2: 0.8769 Low Nov 10
• SUP 3: 0.8746 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 0.8706 Low Oct 24 and a key support  

The trend outlook in EURGBP remains bullish. A fresh cycle high on Nov 14 reinforces the uptrend and maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on 0.8868 next, a Fibonacci retracement point. On the downside, initial key short-term support to monitor lies at  0.8791, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of the average would signal scope for a deeper retracement.     

USDJPY TECHS: Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: 158.87 High Jan 10 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 158.29 2.618 projection of the Sep 17 - 26 - Oct 1 price swing
• RES 2: 158.00 Round number resistance 
• RES 1: 157.89 2.500 projection of the Sep 17 - 26 - Oct 1 price swing 
• PRICE: 157.17 @ 06:54 GMT Nov 21
• SUP 1: 155.21/154.34 Low Nov 19 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 152.82 Low Nov 7   
• SUP 3: 152.17 50-day EMA  
• SUP 4: 150.47 Low Oct 21 

Fresh cycle highs this week in USDJPY reinforce current strong bullish conditions. Wednesday’s gains also signal an acceleration of the uptrend. Note too that moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on the 158.00 handle next. Support to watch is 154.34, the 20-day EMA. The pair has entered overbought territory. A pullback would be considered corrective.     

EURJPY TECHS: Pullback Would Be Considered Corrective 

• RES 4: 184.34 2.000 proj of the Jul 31 - Sep 29 - Oct 2 price swing
• RES 3: 183.07 1.764 proj of the Jul 31 - Sep 29 - Oct 2 price swing
• RES 2: 182.85 Bull channel top drawn from the Feb 28 low
• RES 1: 182.01 High Nov 20
• PRICE: 180.88 @ 08:06 GMT Nov 21
• SUP 1: 179.78 Low Nov 19
• SUP 2: 178.74/176.69 20- and 50-day EMA values 
• SUP 3: 175.71 Low Nov 5  
• SUP 4: 174.72 Bull channel support drawn from the Feb 28 low 

A firm bull cycle in EURJPY remains intact and this week’s strong gains reinforce the current trend condition. The move higher confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are 182.85, the top of a bull channel drawn from the Feb 28 low. First key support lies at 178.74, the 20-day EMA. A pullback would be considered corrective.

AUDUSD TECHS: Support Remains Exposed 

• RES 4: 0.6660 High Sep 18 
• RES 3: 0.6644 76.4% retracement of the Sep-Oct bear leg
• RES 2: 0.6618 High Oct 29 and a key near-term resistance  
• RES 1: 0.6512/6580 20-day EMA / High Nov 13 
• PRICE: 0.6442 @ 08:13 GMT Nov 21 
• SUP 1: 0.6434 Intraday low 
• SUP 2: 0.6415 Low Aug 21 / 22 and a bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.6404 38.2% retracement of the Apr 9 - Sep 17 bull cycle 
• SUP 4: 0.6373 Low Jun 23   

A bear threat in AUDUSD remains present and this week’s extension reinforces the bearish theme. The pair has pierced support at 0.6440, the Oct 14 low and a key short-term level. A clear break of it would open 0.6415, the Aug 21 / 22 low and the trigger for a stronger downleg. Moving average studies remain in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Initial resistance to watch is 0.6512, the 20-day EMA.          

USDCAD TECHS: Strong Bounce

• RES 4: 1.4200 Round number resistance 
• RES 3: 1.4177 Channel top drawn from Jul 23 low
• RES 2: 1.4140/67 High Nov 5 / 50.0% of the Feb 3 - Jun 16 bear leg
• RES 1: 1.4107 High Nov 20  
• PRICE: 1.4092 @ 08:22 GMT Nov 21
• SUP 1: 1.4031/3977 20- and 50-day EMA values
• SUP 2: 1.3904 Bull channel base drawn from the Jul 23 low
• SUP 3: 1.3888 Low Oct 29 and a key support 
• SUP 4: 1.3833 Low Sep 24  

USDCAD rallied again Thursday, further undermining a bear theme. A continuation higher would expose 1.4140, the Nov 5 high and the next notable resistance. Note too that the top of the bull channel, drawn from the Jul 23 low, is at 1.4181 and also represents a key resistance. For bears, key support to watch lies at 1.3977, the 50-day EMA. A clear breach of the average would expose the base of the channel at 1.3904.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (Z5) Bear Cycle Intact                   

• RES 4: 129.73 High Oct 28 
• RES 3: 129.40 High Nov 13 and a key resistance 
• RES 2: 129.12 High Nov 14 
• RES 1: 129.05 50-day EMA        
• PRICE: 128.61 @ 05:35 GMT Nov 21 
• SUP 1: 128.37 Low Nov 20      
• SUP 2: 128.25 Low Oct 7
• SUP 3: 127.88 Low Sep 25 and key support
• SUP 4: 127.61 Low Sep 3 and a key M/T support

A bear cycle in Bund futures remains intact and a fresh cycle low yesterday reinforces a bear theme. Recent weakness has resulted in a print below support at 128.52, 76.4% of the Sep 25 - Oct 17 bull leg. A clear break of this level would open 128.25, the Oct 7 low. Key short-term resistance is seen at 129.40, the Nov 13 high. Clearance of this hurdle would signal a reversal. First resistance is 129.05, the 50-day EMA.            

BOBL TECHS: (Z5) Bearish Cycle Intact      

• RES 4: 118.600 High Oct 24       
• RES 3: 118.360 High Oct 28   
• RES 2: 118.270 High Nov 5  
• RES 1: 118.100 50-day EMA.   
• PRICE: 117.920 @ 05:28 GMT Nov 21
• SUP 1: 117.790 Low Nov 20  
• SUP 2: 117.710 Low Oct 6  
• SUP 3: 117.630 Low Oct 1  
• SUP 4: 117.470 Low Sep 15 and a key support 

The short-term trend theme in Bobl futures remains bearish and the contract continues to trade closer to its latest lows. Recent weakness resulted in a breach of 118.043, 61.8% of the Sep 25 - Oct 17 bull cycle. Note that 117.824, the 76.4% retracement, has been pierced. A continuation lower would open 117.630, the Oct 1 low. Initial firm resistance is seen at 118.100, the 50-day EMA.    

SCHATZ TECHS: (Z5) Trend Condition Remains Bearish        

• RES 4: 107.235 High Oct 22
• RES 3: 107.175 High Oct 24 
• RES 2: 107.064 50-day EMA 
• RES 1: 107.026 20-day EMA   
• PRICE: 106.995 @ 06:12 GMT Nov 21
• SUP 1: 106.945 Low Nov 17   
• SUP 2: 106.920 Low Sep 25 and a key support 
• SUP 3: 106.900 Round number support
• SUP 4: 106.830 Low Mar 27 (cont.)  

The short-term trend condition in Schatz futures remains bearish. Recent weakness paves the way for an extension towards 106.920, the Sep 25 low and a key support. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bear theme. Initial firm resistance to watch is 107.026, the 20-day EMA. Resistance at the 50-day EMA is at 107.064. The area between the two averages represents a key short-term resistance zone.            

GILT TECHS: (Z5) Bear Cycle Intact                

• RES 4: 93.33 Low Nov 13 a gap high on the daily chart 
• RES 3: 92.74 20-day EMA        
• RES 2: 92.60 High Nov 18 
• RES 1: 92.38 50-day EMA    
• PRICE: 92.04 @ 08:06 GMT Nov 21
• SUP 1: 91.51 Low Nov 20      
• SUP 2: 91.01 High Oct 13 and a gap low on the daily chart
• SUP 3: 91.12 61.8% retracement of the Sep 3 - Nov 4 bull leg   
• SUP 4: 91.01 Low Oct 13   

A sharp sell-off in Gilt futures on Wednesday strengthens a bearish threat and cancels a recent bullish condition. The contract has traded through support at 91.82, the Sep 11 high, and the move down signals scope for a deeper retracement that opens 91.12, a Fibonacci retracement point. On the upside, initial key resistance is seen at 92.74, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of the average is required to signal a reversal.         

BTP TECHS: (Z5) Corrective Cycle Extends         

• RES 4: 123.14 1.764 proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 25 price swing
• RES 3: 122.81 1.618 proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 25 price swing
• RES 2: 122.53 1.500 proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 25 price swing
• RES 1: 121.13/94 High Nov 19 / High Oct 17 / 22 and the bull trigger  
• PRICE: 120.78 @ Close Nov 21
• SUP 1: 120.48 Low Nov 20           
• SUP 2: 120.15 50.0% retracement of the Sep 3 - Oct 17 bull leg 
• SUP 3: 119.73 61.8% retracement of the Sep 3 - Oct 17 bull leg
• SUP 4: 119.07 Low Sep 25

The trend set-up in BTP futures is bullish and the latest pullback appears corrective. However, the contract has breached support at 120.74, the Aug 5 high, and pierced the 50-day EMA, at 120.76. A continuation lower would highlight potential for a deeper correction and expose 120.15, a Fibonacci retracement. Key resistance and the bull trigger has been defined at 121.94, the Oct 17 high. Clearance of this hurdle would resume the uptrend.                    

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (Z5) Bear Cycle Remains In Play  

• RES 4: 5858.59 1.618 proj of the Aug 1 - 22 - Sep 2 price swing   
• RES 3: 5825.00 High Nov 13 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 5744.00 High Nov 14  
• RES 1: 5645.61 20-day EMA       
• PRICE: 5500.00 @ 06:35 GMT Nov 21
• SUP 1: 5484.00 Low Nov 21    
• SUP 2: 5427.01 61.8% retracement of the Aug 1 - Nov 13 bull cycle  
• SUP 3: 5383.00 Low Sep 18 
• SUP 4: 5366.00 Low Sep 17      

A medium-term bull trend in EUROSTOXX 50 futures remains intact, however, the past week’s sell-off highlights a stronger corrective cycle. The contract has breached two key support points; 5600.89, the 50-day EMA, and 5621.00, the base of a bull channel drawn from the Aug 1 low. The breach signals scope for a deeper pullback and opens 5427.01, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm resistance to watch is 5645.61, the 20-day EMA.            

E-MINI S&P: (Z5) Pierces Key SUpport              

• RES 4: 6953.75 High Oct 30 and bull trigger
• RES 3: 6900.50 High Nov 12
• RES 2: 6747.78/6791.25 20-day EMA / High Nov 20
• RES 1: 6655.50 Low Nov 7   
• PRICE: 6778.75 @ 07:25 GMT Nov 21
• SUP 1: 6540.25/6539.25 Low Oct 10 and a key support / Intraday low  
• SUP 2: 6500.00 Round number support 
• SUP 3: 6476.62 23.6% retracement of the Apr 7 - Oct 30 uptrend
• SUP 4: 6427.00 Low Sep 2  

S&P E-Minis remain in a short-term bear-mode condition and a steep sell-off yesterday reinforces current conditions. The breach of 6655.70, the Nov 7 low cancels recent bullish signals and signals scope for an extension of the corrective cycle. Sights are on 6540.25 (pierced), the Oct 10 low and a key support. A break would open 6476.62, a Fibonacci retracement point. Initial firm resistance to watch is 6747.78, the 20-day EMA.     

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (F6) Short-Term Bear Threat            

• RES 4: $71.45 - 76.4% retracement of the Jun 23 - Oct 20 bear leg  
• RES 3: $70.69 - High Jul 30
• RES 2: $69.29 - High Sep 26 and a key resistance 
• RES 1: $65.95 - High Oct 24 
• PRICE: $62.48 @ 07:11 GMT Nov 21
• SUP 1: $59.97 - Low Nov 20 and the bear trigger  
• SUP 2: $58.72 - Low May 5
• SUP 3: $57.99 - Low Apr 9 and a key support
• SUP 4: $56.05 - 2.00 proj of the Jul 30 - Aug 13 - Sep 26 price swing 

A sell-off on Nov 12 in Brent futures continues to highlight a bearish development. A stronger resumption of weakness would expose key support and the bear trigger at $59.97, the Oct 20 low. Clearance of this support would confirm a resumption of the bear cycle. Note it is still possible that a bullish corrective cycle remains in play. A move above resistance at $65.95, the Oct 24 high, would signal scope for a stronger recovery near-term.       

WTI TECHS: (F6) Move Lower Strengthens A Bear Theme         

• RES 4: $71.38 - High Jun 23 and a key medium-term resistance 
• RES 3: $67.16 - High Jul 30
• RES 2: $65.33 - High Sep 26 and key resistance 
• RES 1: $61.84 - High Oct 24    
• PRICE: $58.06 @ 07:17 GMT Nov 21 
• SUP 1: $55.99 - Low Oct 20 and bear trigger
• SUP 2: $55.33 - Low May 1
• SUP 3: $54.72 - Low Apr 9 and a key support
• SUP 4: $53.53 - 1.764 proj of the Jul 30 - Aug 13 - Sep 26 price swing   

The move down this week in WTI futures strengthens a bearish theme. A stronger resumption of the bear leg would pave the way for a move towards key support and the bear trigger at $55.99, the Oct 20 low. Clearance of this level would resume the downtrend. Note that it is still possible a bullish corrective cycle remains in play. Resistance to watch is $61.84, the Oct 24 high. Clearance of this hurdle would signal scope for a stronger correction.

GOLD TECHS: Monitoring Support          

• RES 4: $4404.9 - 3.500 proj of the May 15 - Jun 16 - 30 price swing
• RES 3: $4381.5 - High Oct 20 and bull trigger
• RES 2: $4264.7 - 76.4% retracement of the Oct 20 - 28 correction 
• RES 1: $4132.9/4245.2 - High Nov 19 / 13                    
• PRICE: $4035.1 @ 07:25 GMT Nov 21 
• SUP 1: $3948.2 - 50-day EMA 
• SUP 2: $3886.6 - Low Oct 28 and a reversal trigger
• SUP 3: $3800.00 Round number support 
• SUP 4: $3760.9 - Low Sep 29 

The bearish phase in Gold between Oct 20 and 28 appears to have been a correction and has allowed a recent overbought condition to unwind. The recovery since Oct 28 does suggest the correction is over. Key support to watch lies at the 50-day EMA, at $3948.2. Clearance of this EMA would signal scope for a deeper retracement. The first short-term bull trigger has been defined at $4245.23, the Nov 13 high.

SILVER TECHS: Trading Above Support     

• RES 4: $56.153 2.500 proj of the Aug 20 - Sep 16 - 17 price swing   
• RES 3: $55.444 2.382 proj of the Aug 20 - Sep 16 - 17 price swing
• RES 2: $55.000 Round number resistance
• RES 1: $54.480 - High Oct 17 and the bull trigger   
• PRICE: $49.352 @ 08:25 GMT Nov 21
• SUP 1: $49.046 - Intraday low  
• SUP 2: $47.789/45.557 - 50-day EMA / Low Oct 28 
• SUP 3: $41.135 - Low Sep 17
• SUP 4: $38.087 - Low Aug 27  

Trend signals in Silver remain bullish and the latest pullback appears corrective, for now. Support to watch lies at the 50-day EMA, at $47.789. A clear breach of this average would signal scope for a deeper retracement. On the upside, a resumption of gains would refocus attention on the bull trigger at $54.480, the Oct 17 high. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the primary uptrend and open $55.444, a Fibonacci projection.