MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - USDCAD Nears Key Resistance

Price Signal Summary – USDCAD Nears Key Resistance

• The trend condition in S&P E-Minis remains bullish. A key near-term support has been defined at 6771.50, the Dec 18 low. Clearance of this level is required to signal scope for a deeper retracement and would also highlight a possible short-term reversal. A bull cycle in EUROSTOXX 50 futures remains intact and a fresh cycle high this week, reinforces the bull theme and confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position.
• The trend in GBPUSD remains bullish and a fresh cycle high this week reinforces current conditions. Price has pierced 1.3557, the 76.4% retracement of the Sep 17 - Nov 4 bear leg. The trend structure in USDJPY is bullish and short-term weakness is considered corrective. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. A bear theme in USDCAD remains intact and the latest recovery is considered corrective - for now. The pair has traded through the 20-day EMA, and this signals scope for a stronger corrective bounce.
• The trend structure in Gold is bullish and a sharp sell-off late December appears corrective - for now. The trend is overbought and a deeper retracement would allow this condition to unwind. The trend theme in WTI futures is unchanged, it remains bearish and recent gains appear to have been corrective. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend.
• Short-term gains in Bund futures appear corrective. Price has pierced resistance at 127.73, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of the EMA would signal scope for a climb towards 128.08, the Dec 8 high. Gilt futures are still trading in a range and within the two important directional short-term triggers; 90.50, the Dec 16 low, and 91.93, the Nov 27 high. A clear breach of support at 90.50 would signal scope for a deeper retracement. 

[CROSS ASSET] MNI Tech Trend Monitor

• We refresh our Global Tech Trend Monitor, adding longer-term techs for USDMXN, EURHUF, EURGBP, Bitcoin and the USD Index as well as refreshing levels for Spot Gold, Silver, USDJPY, UK Gilt Yields and the Europe Banking Stock Index (SX7E).

See full document here: https://emedia.marketnews.com/marketnewsintl/TechTrendMonitorNov.pdf

FOREIGN EXCHANGE    

EURUSD TECHS: Reversal Signal    

• RES 4: 1.1919 High Sep 17 and a key M/T resistance  
• RES 3: 1.1848 High Sep 18
• RES 2: 1.1808 High Dec 24 and the bull trigger 
• RES 1: 1.1765 High Jan 2 
• PRICE: 1.1693 @ 06:19 GMT Jan 7
• SUP 1: 1.1659 Low Jan 5 and key short-term support
• SUP 2: 1.1639 50.0% retracement of the Nov 5 - Dec 12 bull leg  
• SUP 3: 1.1615 Low Dec 9 
• SUP 4: 1.1598 61.8% retracement of the Nov 5 - Dec 12 bull leg

A strong recovery from Monday’s low print in EURUSD highlights a potential reversal - the price pattern on Jan 5 is a bullish long legged doji candle, also known as a dragonfly doji. It is a bullish reversal pattern and highlights a key short-term support at 1.1659, the Jan 5 low. A stronger recovery would open 1.1808, the Dec 24 high. Clearance of this resistance would confirm a resumption of the uptrend that started on Nov 5.          

GBPUSD TECHS: Trend Outlook Remains Bullish

• RES 4: 1.3726 High Sep 17 and a key resistance     
• RES 3: 1.3661 High Sep 18
• RES 2: 1.3607 2.764 proj of the Nov 4 - 13 - 20 price swing
• RES 1: 1.3568 High Jan 6
• PRICE: 1.3509 @ 06:39 GMT Jan 7
• SUP 1: 1.3440 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.3373 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.3288 Low Dec 9 
• SUP 4: 1.3180 Low Dec 2     

The trend in GBPUSD remains bullish and a fresh cycle high this week reinforces current conditions. Price has pierced 1.3557, the 76.4% retracement of the Sep 17 - Nov 4 bear leg. A clear break of this level would pave the way for a climb towards 1.3607, a Fibonacci projection. Key S/T support is seen at 1.3373, the 50-day EMA. A clear breach of it would signal a short-term reversal. For now, a pullback would be considered corrective.   

EURGBP TECHS: Bear Cycle Remains Intact

• RES 4: 0.8797 High Dec 17   
• RES 3: 0.8774 High Dec 19 
• RES 2: 0.8739 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 0.8703 Low Dec 30 
• PRICE: 0.8658 @ 06:51 GMT Jan 7
• SUP 1: 0.8644 Low Jan 6
• SUP 2: 0.8633 Low Sep 15
• SUP 3: 0.8620 38.2% retracement of the Dec ‘24 - Nov ‘25 bull cycle 
• SUP 4: 0.8597 Low Aug 14

A sharp sell-off in EURGBP on Monday confirms a resumption of the current bear cycle and an extension of the current price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. This opens 0.8620, a Fibonacci retracement point. Note that moving average studies have crossed and are in a bear mode position highlighting a stronger bear cycle - for now. On the upside, resistance to watch is 0.8739, the 50-day EMA.           

USDJPY TECHS: Bullish Outlook

• RES 4: 158.87 High Jan 10 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 158.29 2.618 projection of the Sep 17 - 26 - Oct 1 price swing
• RES 2: 158.00 Round number resistance 
• RES 1: 157.89 High Nov 20 and the bull trigger 
• PRICE: 156.33 @ 07:03 GMT Jan 7 
• SUP 1: 156.26/155.12 20- and 50-day EMA values
• SUP 2: 154.35 Low Dec 5 and a bear trigger  
• SUP 3: 153.62 Low Nov 14 
• SUP 4: 152.82 Low Nov 7

The trend structure in USDJPY is bullish and short-term weakness is considered corrective. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Attention is on 157.89, the Nov 20 high and a bull trigger. Clearance of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the trend. Support to watch lies at 155.12, the 50-day EMA. A clear breach of it would undermine the bull theme and signal scope for a deeper correction.  

EURJPY TECHS: Bull Flag 

• RES 4: 186.41 2.618 proj of the Jul 31 - Sep 29 - Oct 2 price swing
• RES 3: 186.31 Bull channel top drawn from the Feb 28 low
• RES 2: 185.77 2.5000 proj of the Jul 31 - Sep 29 - Oct 2 price swing
• RES 1: 184.92 High Dec 22
• PRICE: 182.87 @ 07:30 GMT Jan 7
• SUP 1: 182.25 Low Dec 19
• SUP 2: 181.57 Low Dec 17 
• SUP 3: 181.25 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 180.10 Low Dec 5 

The trend structure in EURJPY remains bullish. The current flat correction appears to be a flag formation - a bullish continuation pattern. Sights are on 186.31, the top of a bull channel drawn from the Feb 28 low. This level also represents a key resistance point. Note that support at 183.17, the 20-day EMA, has been. A clear breach of it would signal the start of a stronger corrective cycle.   

AUDUSD TECHS: Clears The Bull Trigger      

• RES 4: 0.6872 38.2% retracement of the 2021 - 2025 L/T downtrend  
• RES 3: 0.6858 1.000 proj of the Nov 21 - Dec 10 - 18 price swing
• RES 2: 0.6795 0.764 proj of the Nov 21 - Dec 10 - 18 price swing
• RES 1: 0.6767 Intraday high
• PRICE: 0.6739 @ 08:10 GMT Jan 7 
• SUP 1: 0.6670 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 0.6618 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 0.6593 Low Dec 18 
• SUP 4: 0.6553 Low Dec 3  

The trend condition in AUDUSD is unchanged, it remains bullish and today’s initial gains reinforce current conditions. This week’s climb has resulted in a breach of resistance at 0.6728, the Dec 29 high and bull trigger. The move higher confirms a resumption of the current uptrend and paves the way for a climb towards 0.6795 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support to watch lies at 0.6670, the 20- day EMA. A pullback would be considered corrective.   

USDCAD TECHS: Approaching Resistance At The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 1.3950 61.8% retracement of the Nov 5 - Dec 26 bear leg     
• RES 3: 1.3925 Low Dec 4
• RES 2: 1.3892 50.0% retracement of the Nov 5 - Dec 26 bear leg   
• RES 1: 1.3844 50-day EMA 
• PRICE: 1.3826 @ 08:17 GMT Jan 7
• SUP 1: 1.3701/3643 Low Jan 2 / Low Dec 26 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.3637 Low Jul 25
• SUP 3: 1.3576 Low Jul 23
• SUP 4: 1.3540 Low Jun 16 and a key M/T support   

A bear theme in USDCAD remains intact and the latest recovery is considered corrective - for now. The pair has traded through the 20-day EMA, and this signals scope for a stronger corrective bounce. Attention is on the next important resistance at 1.3844, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of the 50-day average would highlight a stronger reversal. Key short-term support and the bear trigger has been defined at 1.3643, the Dec 26 low.      

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (H6) Pierces The 20-Day EMA                      

• RES 4: 128.75 High Dec 3 and a key resistance   
• RES 3: 128.40 Low Dec 2    
• RES 2: 128.08 High Dec 8 
• RES 1: 127.94 Intraday high           
• PRICE: 127.87 @ 07:24 GMT Jan 7 
• SUP 1: 126.75 Low Dec 22 and the bear trigger          
• SUP 2: 126.53 Low Mar 11 (cont.) and a key support  
• SUP 3: 126.35 3.236 projection of the Nov 12 - 20 - 26 price swing
• SUP 4: 126.20 3.382 projection of the Nov 12 - 20 - 26 price swing

Short-term gains in Bund futures appear corrective. Price has pierced resistance at 127.73, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of the EMA would signal scope for a climb towards 128.08, the Dec 8 high. Note that moving average studies remain in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. The bear trigger lies at 126.75, the Dec 22 low. A break of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend.                   

BOBL TECHS: (H6) Corrective Cycle          

• RES 4: 116.770 High Dec 3 and key resistance       
• RES 3: 116.580 High Dec 5  
• RES 2: 116.500 Round number resistance    
• RES 1: 116.310 High Jan 6     
• PRICE: 116.290 @ 06:03 GMT Jan 7 
• SUP 1: 115.920/720 Low Jan 5 / Low Dec 10 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 2: 115.660.4.000 proj of the Nov 6 - 14 - 26 price swing  
• SUP 3: 115.600 Round number support
• SUP 4: 115.573 4.236 proj of the Nov 6 - 14 - 26 price swing

The trend set-up in Bobl futures is unchanged, the condition remains bearish and the latest recovery appears corrective. The contract has traded through the 20-day EMA, at 116.217, and this signals scope for a climb towards 116.500. On the downside, key support and the bear trigger lies at 115.720, the Dec 10 low. A breach of this level would confirm a resumption of the medium-term downtrend.        

SCHATZ TECHS: (H6) Corrective Phase Extends             

• RES 4: 107.000 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 106.945 High Dec 3 and a key resistance 
• RES 2: 106.900 High Dec 5  
• RES 1: 106.840 High Jan 6
• PRICE: 106.835 @ 06:29 GMT Jan 7
• SUP 1: 106.690 Low Dec 18 & 22 
• SUP 2: 106.630 Low Dec 10 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 106.621 2.236 proj of the Nov 26 - Dec 2 - 3 minor price swing 
• SUP 4: 106.600 2.382 proj of the Nov 26 - Dec 2 - 3 minor price swing

A bear theme in Schatz futures remains intact and short-term gains are considered corrective. On the continuation chart, moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. A resumption of the trend would open 106.621 next, a Fibonacci projection. Resistance at the 20-day EMA, has been breached. This signal scope for an extension towards 106.900, the Dec 5 high.               

GILT TECHS: (H6) Support Still Intact For Now                     

• RES 4: 92.31 High Nov 12
• RES 3: 92.00 Round number resistance         
• RES 2: 91.93 High Nov 27
• RES 1: 91.47 High Dec 31      
• PRICE: 91.25 @ Close Jan 6
• SUP 1: 90.50 Low Dec 16       
• SUP 2: 90.28 Low Nov 21  
• SUP 3: 90.00 Round number support    
• SUP 4: 89.86 Low Nov 19 and the bear trigger     

Gilt futures are still trading in a range and within the two important directional short-term triggers; 90.50, the Dec 16 low, and 91.93, the Nov 27 high. A clear breach of support at 90.50 would signal scope for a deeper retracement towards 89.86, the Nov 19 low and a bear trigger. On the upside, a resumption of gains and a breach of 91.93, would instead signal scope for a climb towards resistance at 92.55, the Nov 11 high.               

BTP TECHS: (H6) Monitoring Resistance       

• RES 4: 121.37 High Nov 13
• RES 3: 121.24 High Nov 26 
• RES 2: 120.59 High Dec 29 and key S/T resistance 
• RES 1: 120.47 High Jan 6   
• PRICE: 120.31 @ Close Jan 6
• SUP 1: 119.45 Low Dec 22           
• SUP 2: 119.13 Low Dec 10 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 3: 118.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 118.84 2.000 proj of the Nov 13 - 20 - 26 price swing 

A sharp reversal in BTP futures from the Dec 29 high signals the end of the recent corrective cycle. A resumption of bearish price action would expose the key support and bear trigger at 119.13, the Dec 10 low. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bear theme. Resistance at 120.10, the 20-day EMA, has been cleared. Key short-term resistance to watch is 120.59, the Dec 29 high. Clearance of this hurdle would be a bullish development.                        

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (H6) Northbound      

• RES 4: 6086.99 1.236 proj of the Nov 21 - Dec 12 - 18 price swing      
• RES 3: 6011.00 1.000 proj of the Nov 21 - Dec 12 - 18 price swing 
• RES 2: 6000.00 Round number resistance 
• RES 1: 5965.00 High Jan 6         
• PRICE: 5954.00 @ 06:40 GMT Jan 7
• SUP 1: 5847.00/5795.81 High Nov 13 / 20-day EMA      
• SUP 2: 5722.84 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 5689.00 Low Dec 18 
• SUP 4: 5655.00 Low Dec 1     

A bull cycle in EUROSTOXX 50 futures remains intact and a fresh cycle high this week, reinforces the bull theme and confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on the 6000.00 handle next. On the downside, initial firm support to watch is at 5795.81, the 20-day EMA. A pullback would be considered corrective.     

E-MINI S&P: (H6) Sights Are On The Bull Trigger  

• RES 4: 7080.92 0.764 proj Nov 21 - Dec 11 - 18 price swing  
• RES 3: 7021.79 0.618 proj Nov 21 - Dec 11 - 18 price swing
• RES 2: 7014.00 High Oct 30 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 6994.00 High Dec 26   
• PRICE: 6983.00 @ 07:23 GMT Jan 7
• SUP 1: 6869.84 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 6771.50 Low Dec 18 and a key support 
• SUP 3: 6684.50 Low Nov 24  
• SUP 4: 6583.00 Low Nov 21 and a reversal trigger  

The trend condition in S&P E-Minis remains bullish. A key near-term support has been defined at 6771.50, the Dec 18 low. Clearance of this level is required to signal scope for a deeper retracement and would also highlight a possible short-term reversal. For bulls, sights are on key resistance at 7014.00, the Oct 30 high. A move through this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the primary uptrend.              

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (H6) Trend Needle Points South             

• RES 4: $70.06 - High Jul 30 
• RES 3: $68.58 - High Sep 26 
• RES 2: $64.81 - High Oct 24 and a key resistance 
• RES 1: $61.99 - 50-day EMA 
• PRICE: $59.93 @ 07:03 GMT Jan 7 
• SUP 1: $58.53 - Low Dec 16   
• SUP 2: $58.27 - Low Apr 9 and a key support
• SUP 3: $57.87 - 1.764 proj of the Jul 30 - Aug 13 - Sep 26 price swing
• SUP 4: $56.44 - 2.000 proj of the Jul 30 - Aug 13 - Sep 26 price swing 

The trend outlook in Brent futures remains bearish and recent gains are considered corrective. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode condition, highlighting a dominant downtrend. A resumption of the bear cycle would open $58.27, the Apr 9 low. On the upside, key short-term resistance to watch is $64.81, the Oct 24 high. First resistance is $61.99, the 50-day EMA.        

WTI TECHS: (G6) Trend Set-Up Still Bearish        

• RES 4: $70.16 - High Jun 23 and a key medium-term resistance 
• RES 3: $64.97 - High Sep 26
• RES 2: $61.25 - High Oct 24 and a key resistance  
• RES 1: $58.46 - 50-day EMA    
• PRICE: $56.26 @ 07:13 GMT Jan 7
• SUP 1: $54.89 - Low Dec 16
• SUP 2: $54.71 - Low Apr 9 and a key support
• SUP 3: $53.77 - 1.764 proj of the Jul 30 - Aug 13 - Sep 26 price swing
• SUP 4: $52.27 - 2.000 proj of the Jul 30 - Aug 13 - Sep 26 price swing   

The trend theme in WTI futures is unchanged, it remains bearish and recent gains appear to have been corrective. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. A resumption of the bear leg would signal scope for a move towards $53.77, a Fibonacci projection. Key short-term resistance is $61.25, the Oct 24 high. First resistance is at $58.41, the 50- day EMA.      

GOLD TECHS: Trading Above Support          

• RES 4: $4600.00 - Round number resistance
• RES 3: $4578.3 - 1.618 proj of the Oct 28 - Nov 13 - Nov 18 swing
• RES 2: $4549.9 - High Dec 26 and the bull trigger 
• RES 1: $4500.5 - Intraday high                     
• PRICE: $4452.3 @ 07:20 GMT Jan 7 
• SUP 1: $4274.7 - Low Dec 31 
• SUP 2: $4215.8 - 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: $4109.7 - Low Nov 25 
• SUP 4: $3998.1 - Low Nov 18

The trend structure in Gold is bullish and a sharp sell-off late December appears corrective - for now. The trend is overbought and a deeper retracement would allow this condition to unwind. First support at $4351.9, the 20-day EMA, has been pierced. A clear break of the average would expose the 50-day EMA at $4215.8. For bulls, a resumption of gains would open $4578.3, a Fibonacci projection.                         

SILVER TECHS: Trend Set-Up Remains Bullish    

• RES 4: $87.355 - 4.382 proj of the Oct 28 - Nov 13 - 21 price swing
• RES 3: $86.065 - 4.236 proj of the Oct 28 - Nov 13 - 21 price swing
• RES 2: $84.008 - High Dec 29 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $82.754 - Intraday high  
• PRICE: $79.981 @ 08:21 GMT Jan 7
• SUP 1: $69.874 - 20-day EMA  
• SUP 2: $61.747 - 50-day EMA   
• SUP 3: $56.496 - Low Dec 4
• SUP 4: $50.000 - Round number support

Trend signals in Silver remain bullish  and the volatile session late December that included a sharp pullback, appears to have been a correction. Note that the trend is overbought and a deeper retracement would allow this condition to unwind. The first important support to watch lies at $68.874, the 20-day EMA. On the upside, the bull trigger is at $84.008, the Dec 29 high. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend.