MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - USD/CAD Breaks Lower

Price Signal Summary – USD/CAD Breaks Lower

• S&P E-Minis are trading in a volatile manner. A bearish theme remains intact and today’s fresh cycle low, strengthens current conditions. A resumption of weakness would signal scope for an extension towards 5396.00. Eurostoxx 50 futures remain in a bear cycle following recent weakness and today’s fresh cycle low strengthens the bearish condition. Recent weakness resulted in a break of support at 5229.00, the Mar 11 low.
• Today’s gains GBPUSD have resulted in a break of resistance at 1.3015, the Mar 20 high, to confirm a resumption of the uptrend that started Jan 13. This maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs. USDJPY is trading sharply lower today, extending the pullback from the recent 151.21 high on Mar 28. The trend condition is bearish and attention is on key support and the bear trigger at 146.54, the Mar 11 low. USDCAD is again trading lower, today. The pair has breached  an important short-term support at 1.4235, the Mar 26 low. The clear break of this level undermines the bull theme and highlights potential for a test of 1.4151, the Feb 14 low and a bear trigger.
• The trend condition in Gold is unchanged, it remains bullish and today’s fresh cycle high reinforces current conditions. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend and positive market sentiment. WTI futures traded sharply higher earlier this week. This continues to signal scope for an extension of the bull cycle near-term, and the latest pullback is considered corrective - for now.
• Bund futures are once again trading higher. The latest recovery is still possibly a corrective cycle, however, fresh short-term cycle highs signal scope for a continuation of the bull cycle near-term. Gilt futures are trading higher today, as the contract extends the recovery that started Mar 27. Price has cleared a trendline resistance drawn from Mar 4 high and today, has pierced resistance at 93.01.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE    

EURUSD TECHS: Bullish Trend Sequence         

• RES 4: 1.1144 High Oct 1 2024 
• RES 3: 1.1083 High Oct 2 2024
• RES 2: 1.1040 High Oct 4 2024
• RES 1: 1.1002 Low Sep 12 2024  
• PRICE: 1.0981 @ 07:55 BST Apr 3
• SUP 1: 1.0785 20-day EMA    
• SUP 2: 1.0733 Low Mar 27 and a key short-term support     
• SUP 3: 1.0669 50-day EMA and a short-term pivot level     
• SUP 4: 1.0602 Low Mar 5

EURUSD has recovered from its recent lows and maintains a firmer tone.
The pair has breached key short-term resistance at 1.0955, the Mar 18 high. Clearance of this level confirms a resumption of the uptrend and paves the way for a climb towards 1.1002 next, the Sep 11 ‘24 low. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend. Key trend support has been defined at 1.0733, the Mar 27 low.   

GBPUSD TECHS: Resumes Its Uptrend        

• RES 4: 1.3274 High Oct 3 ‘24  
• RES 3: 1.3200 Round number resistance 
• RES 2: 1.3175 High Oct 4 2024 
• RES 1: 1.3119 76.4% retracement of the Sep 26 ‘24 - Jan 13 bear leg 
• PRICE: 1.3096 @ 06:44 BST Apr 3
• SUP 1: 1.2902/1.2871 20-day EMA / Low Mar 27 and key support       
• SUP 2: 1.2775 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 1.2679 Low Mar 4   
• SUP 4: 1.2559 Low Feb 28

Today’s gains GBPUSD have resulted in a break of resistance at 1.3015, the Mar 20 high, to confirm a resumption of the uptrend that started Jan 13. This maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and note too that moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend.Sights are on 1.3119, a Fibonacci retracement. Key short-term support is at 1.2871, the Mar 27 low.                   

EURGBP TECHS: Trading Above Support

• RES 4: 0.8494 High Aug 26 ‘24        
• RES 3: 0.8474 High Jan 20 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 0.8428/8450 High Mar 18 / 11 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 0.8395 High Mar 24 and a key near-term resistance       
• PRICE: 0.8359 @ 07:13 BST Apr 3 
• SUP 1: 0.8316 Low Mar 28 and a key near-term support 
• SUP 2: 0.8291 76.4% retracement of the Mar 3 - 11 bull leg
• SUP 3: 0.8251 Low Mar 4  
• SUP 4: 0.8241 Low Mar 3 and a bear trigger

EURGBP is trading above the Mar 28 low . The bear leg that started Mar 11 appears corrective and has allowed an overbought condition to unwind. MA studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Support to watch is 0.8316, the Mar 28 low. A break of it would signal scope for a deeper retracement and open 0.8290, a Fibonacci retracement. For bulls, clearance of  0.8395, the Mar 24 high, would be a bullish development.     

USDJPY TECHS: Bear Trigger Remains Exposed 

• RES 4: 152.70 50.0% retracement of the Jan 10 - Mar 11 bear leg    
• RES 3: 151.30 High Mar 3  
• RES 2: 150.76/151.21 50-day EMA / High Mar 28 and reversal trigger  
• RES 1: 149.70 20-day EMA 
• PRICE: 147.52 @ 06:14 BST Apr 3
• SUP 1: 147.12 Intraday low     
• SUP 2: 146.54 Low Mar 11 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 145.92 Low Oct 4 2024  
• SUP 4: 144.13 76.4% retracement of the Sep 16 ‘24 - Jan 10 bull leg 

USDJPY is trading sharply lower today, extending the pullback from the recent 151.21 high on Mar 28. The trend condition is bearish and attention is on key support and the bear trigger at 146.54, the Mar 11 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend that started Jan 10. A break would open 145.92, the Oct 4 ‘24 low. On the upside, a move above the Mar 28 high is required to signal a reversal.   

EURJPY TECHS: Pierces The 50-Day EMA              

• RES 4: 165.43 High Nov 8        
• RES 3: 164.90 High Dec 30 ‘24 and a key medium-term resistance   
• RES 2: 164.55 High Jan 7
• RES 1: 162.04/164.19 Intraday high / High Mar 18 and the bull trigger 
• PRICE: 161.07@ 07:19 GMT Apr 3 
• SUP 1: 160.80/12 50-day EMA / Intraday low  
• SUP 2: 160.06 Low Mar 13   
• SUP 3: 158.90 Low Mar 10  
• SUP 4: 158.39 61.8% retracement of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 bull cycle  

The trend structure in EURJPY remains bullish and recent weakness appears corrective - for now. The pullback has allowed an overbought condition to unwind. Pivot support is 160.80, the 50-day EMA. It has been pierced, a clear break of the average would signal potential for a deeper retracement, towards 160.06 initially, the Mar 13 low. For bulls, clearance of 164.19, the Mar 18 high, would confirm a resumption of the uptrend.    

AUDUSD TECHS: Support Holds For Now               

• RES 4: 0.6429 High Dec 12 ‘24
• RES 3: 0.6414 38.2% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Feb 3 bear leg              
• RES 2: 0.6409 High Feb 21 and a bull trigger 
• RES 1: 0.6341/91 High Apr 2 / High Mar 17 and 18 
• PRICE: 0.6309 @ 07:57 BST Apr 3 
• SUP 1: 0.6219 Low Mar 31
• SUP 2: 0.6187 Low Feb 4
• SUP 3: 0.6171/6088 Low Feb 4 / 3 and a key support
• SUP 4: 0.6045 1.500 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing

AUDUSD continues to trade above Monday’s 0.6219 low. This affirms the view that recent weakness is likely corrective, with prices still clear of Feb 4 support at 0.6187. A move through 0.6187 is required to reinstate a bear threat. On the upside, a stronger recovery would refocus attention on 0.6409, the Feb 21 high and a key resistance. Clearance of this hurdle would strengthen the bull cycle and resume the uptrend that started Feb 3.      

USDCAD TECHS: Approaching Key Support  

• RES 4: 1.4700 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 1.4641 76.4% retracement of the Feb 3 - 14 bear leg
• RES 2: 1.4452/4543 High Mar 13 / 4 and a bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.4316/4415 50-day EMA / High Apr 1   
• PRICE: 1.4168 @ 09:05 BST Apr 3
• SUP 1: 1.4151 Low Feb 14 and a bear trigger   
• SUP 2: 1.4107 50.0% retracement of Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bull run  
• SUP 3: 1.4011 Low Dec 5 ‘24
• SUP 4: 1.3944 61.8% retracement of Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bull run

USDCAD is again trading lower, today. The pair has breached  an important short-term support at 1.4235, the Mar 26 low. The clear break of this level undermines the bull theme and highlights potential for a test of 1.4151, the Feb 14 low and a bear trigger. Clearance of this support would strengthen a bearish condition and open 1.4107, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, initial firm resistance to watch has been defined at 1.4415, the Apr 1 high. 

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M5) Bull Cycle Extends                   

• RES 4: 131.14 76.4% retracement of the Feb 28 - Mar 11 bear leg              
• RES 3: 130.88 Low Mar 3       
• RES 2: 130.26 61.8% retracement of the Feb 28 - Mar 11 bear leg 
• RES 1: 130.00 Round number resistance                    
• PRICE: 129.90 @ 05:27 BST Apr 3
• SUP 1: 128.75/47 20-day EMA / Low Mar 28       
• SUP 2: 127.74 Low Mar 25 and a key short-term support             
• SUP 3: 127.20 Low Mar 17  
• SUP 4: 126.53 Low Mar 11 and the bear trigger   

Bund futures are once again trading higher. The latest recovery is still possibly a corrective cycle, however, fresh short-term cycle highs signal scope for a continuation of the bull cycle near-term. Sights are on the 130.00 handle and 130.26, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm support to watch lies at 128.75, the 20-day EMA. Key support has been defined at 127.74, the Mar 25 low.                                      

BOBL TECHS: (M5) Northbound         

• RES 4: 119.040 High Feb 28 and a key resistance         
• RES 3: 118.950 High Mar 4          
• RES 2: 118.500 Round number resistance    
• RES 1: 118.420 Intraday high                                  
• PRICE: 118.360 @ 06:46 BST Apr 3  
• SUP 1: 117.556 20-day EMA       
• SUP 2: 117.410 Low Mar 27    
• SUP 3: 117.080 Low Mar 25 and a ey short-term support 
• SUP 4: 116.800 Low Mar 17     

Bobl futures have traded to a fresh short-term cycle high today. The contract has pierced 118.382, the 76.4% retracement of the bear leg between Feb 28 - Mar 6. A clear breach of this price point would strengthen current bullish conditions and pave the way for a climb towards 119.040, the Feb 28 high and a key resistance. On the downside, initial firm support to watch lies at 117.556, the 20-day EMA.                  

SCHATZ TECHS: (M5) Clears Key Resistance                           

• RES 4: 107.393 1.382 retracement proj of the Mar 4 - 6 bear leg     
• RES 3: 107.289 1.236 retracement proj of the Mar 4 - 6 bear leg    
• RES 2: 107.200 Round number resistance  
• RES 1: 107.160 Intraday high                  
• PRICE: 107.135 @ 06:03 BST Apr 3     
• SUP 1: 106.930 Low Apr 2   
• SUP 2: 106.900 Low Mar 31    
• SUP 3: 106.832 20-day EMA     
• SUP 4: 106.715 Low Mar 25     

Schatz futures maintain a firmer tone and today’s fresh cycle high reinforces a bullish theme. The contract has traded through a key resistance at 107.120, the Mar 4 high. This confirms a full reversal of the Apr 3 - 6 impulsive sell-off. The break also highlights a stronger bull cycle and signals scope for a climb towards 107.200 next. Initial firm support is seen at 106.832, the 20-day EMA. A pullback would be considered corrective.                                                     

GILT TECHS: (M5) Rally Extends             

• RES 4: 93.79 High Mar 4     
• RES 3: 93.01 High Mar 20        
• RES 2: 92.55 61.8% retracement of the Mar 4 - 27 bear leg 
• RES 1: 92.42 Trendline resistance drawn from the Mar 4 high                       
• PRICE: 92.08 @ Close BST Apr 1
• SUP 1: 91.59 Low Mar 31                                      
• SUP 2: 91.03 Low Mar 28  
• SUP 3: 90.55 Low Mar 27 and the bear trigger   
• SUP 4: 90.49 1.618 proj of the Feb 6 - 20 - Mar 4 price swing

Gilt futures are trading higher today, as the contract extends the recovery that started Mar 27. Price has cleared a trendline resistance drawn from Mar 4 high and today, has pierced resistance at 93.01, the Mar 20 high. A continuation higher would pave the way for a climb towards 93.79, the Mar 4 high and a key resistance. Initial firm support to watch lies at 91.84, the 20-day EMA.                            

BTP TECHS: (M5) Bull Phase Still In Play                              

• RES 4: 120.39 High Feb 28 and a key resistance      
• RES 3: 119.31 Low Mar 4 and a gap high on the daily chart  
• RES 2: 119.00 Round number resistance   
• RES 1: 118.63 Intraday high          
• PRICE: 118.36 @ 07:20 BST Apr 3  
• SUP 1: 117.56 20-day EMA   
• SUP 2: 116.89 Low Mar 25 and a key short-term support    
• SUP 3: 116.15 Low Mar 17  
• SUP 4: 115.75 Low Mar 14     

Recent gains in BTP futures still appear corrective in nature. However, the contract continues to trade higher this week and for now, maintains a firmer short-term tone. A continuation of the bull phase would signal scope for an extension towards the 119.00 handle next. On the downside, initial firm support to watch is 117.56, the 20-day EMA. A break of this average would highlight a potential reversal.              

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M5) Bear Cycle Intact    

• RES 4: 5440.00 High Mar 25 and 26 
• RES 3: 5341.00 High Mar 27 
• RES 2: 5287.93/5325.98 50- and 20-day EMA values 
• RES 1: 5229.00 Low Mar 11 and a recent breakout level              
• PRICE: 5143.00 @ 06:09 BST Apr 3 
• SUP 1: 5110.00 Intraday low                  
• SUP 2: 5079.00 Low Feb 3 and a key support
• SUP 3: 5040.50 1.500 proj of the Mar 3 - 11 - 19 price swing     
• SUP 4: 5006.63 1.618 proj of the Mar 3 - 11 - 19 price swing     

Eurostoxx 50 futures remain in a bear cycle following recent weakness and today’s fresh cycle low strengthens the bearish condition. Recent weakness resulted in a break of support at 5229.00, the Mar 11 low. This signals scope for an extension towards 5079.00, the Feb 3 low. Initial firm resistance is 5325.98, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of this average is required to highlight a reversal.         

E-MINI S&P: (M5) Bears Remain In The Driver’s Seat            

• RES 4: 5837.25 High Mar 25 and a reversal trigger 
• RES 3: 5773.25 High Apr 2      
• RES 2: 5753.60 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 5651.25 Low Mar 21                          
• PRICE: 5547.00 @ 06:26 BST Apr 3   
• SUP 1: 5481.00 Intraday low                    
• SUP 2: 5396.00 2.236 proj of the Dec 6 ‘24 - Jan 13 - Feb 19 swing
• SUP 3: 5366.97 76.4% of the Aug 5 ‘24 - Feb 19 bull leg (cont) 
• SUP 4: 5341.87 2.382 proj of the Dec 6 ‘24 - Jan 13 - Feb 19 swing

S&P E-Minis are trading in a volatile manner. A bearish theme remains intact and today’s fresh cycle low, strengthens current conditions. A resumption of weakness would signal scope for an extension towards 5396.00, a Fibonacci projection. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 5837.25, the Mar 25 high.           

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (M5) Tests Support At The 20-Day EMA   

• RES 4: $78.96 -  High Jan 15 and a reversal trigger  
• RES 3: $77.75 - High Jan 20 
• RES 2: $76.26 - High Feb 20 and a bull trigger
• RES 1: $75.47 - High Apr 2            
• PRICE: $73.05 @ 07:14 BST Apr 3  
• SUP 1: $72.54 - 20-day EMA  
• SUP 2: $69.51/67.95 - Low Mar 19 / 5 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $67.87 - Low Sep 10 ‘24 and a key medium-term support
• SUP 4: $66.55 1.618 proj of the Jan 15 - Feb 4 - 20 price swing

Brent futures are trading in a volatile manner. A strong rally earlier this week strengthens the current short-term bullish theme and for now, the latest pullback appears corrective. A resumption of gains would refocus attention on the next key resistance at $76.26, the Feb 20. Clearance of this level would reinforce the bullish condition. Initial firm support to watch lies at $72.54 the 20-day EMA. It has been pierced, a clear break of it would alter the picture.     

WTI TECHS: (K5) Monitoring Support                         

• RES 4: $76.57 - High Jan 15 and the bull trigger   
• RES 3: $74.66 - High Jan 22 
• RES 2: $72.91 - High Feb 11 and key resistance 
• RES 1: $72.28 - High Apr 2   
• PRICE: $69.74 @ 07:20 BST Apr 3 
• SUP 1: $69.26 - 20-day EMA   
• SUP 2: $66.09/64.85 - Low Mar 19 / 5 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $63.73 - Low Sep 10 ‘24 and a key medium-term support
• SUP 4: $60.98 - 1.764 proj of the Jan 15 - Feb 4 - 11 price swing   

WTI futures traded sharply higher earlier this week. This continues to signal scope for an extension of the bull cycle near-term, and the latest pullback is considered corrective - for now. A resumption of gains would refocus attention on key resistance at $72.91, the Feb 11 high. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bullish theme.  Support to watch is  $69.26, the 20-day EMA. It has been pierced, a clear break of it would highlight a reversal.              

GOLD TECHS: Fresh Cycle High                      

• RES 4: $3223.8 - 3.382 proj of the Nov 14 - Dec 12 - 19 price swing    
• RES 3: $3200.00 - Round number resistance
• RES 2: $3196.2 - 3.236 proj of the Nov 14 - Dec 12 - 19 price swing
• RES 1: $3167.9 - Intraday high     
• PRICE: $3137.0 @ 06:01 BST Apr 3 
• SUP 1: $3076.9 - Low Mar 31 
• SUP 2: $3026.6 - 20-day EMA 
• SUP 3: $2999.5 - Low Mar 21 
• SUP 4: $2932.8 - 50-day EMA

The trend condition in Gold is unchanged, it remains bullish and today’s fresh cycle high reinforces current conditions. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend and positive market sentiment. The next upside objective is $3196.2, a Fibonacci projection, ahead of the $3200.0 handle. On the downside, key short-term support lies at $3026.6, the 20-day EMA.                       

SILVER TECHS: Corrective Pullback         

• RES 4: $36.560 - 1.236 proj of the Dec 19 - Feb 14 - 28 price swing
• RES 3: $35.463 - 1.000 proj of the Dec 19 - Feb 14 - 28 price swing
• RES 2: $34.903 - High Oct 23 ‘24 and the bull trigger 
• RES 1: $34.590 - High Mar 28                                    
• PRICE: $33.062 @ 08:12 BST Apr 3    
• SUP 1: $33.040 - Intraday low            
• SUP 2: $32.665 - Low Mar 21 and key support  
• SUP 3: $31.814 - Low Mar 11 
• SUP 4: $30.815 - Low Feb 28 and key support

Trend conditions in Silver are unchanged, they remain bullish and the latest pullback - for now - appears corrective. The metal recently breached $34.233, the Mar 18 high and a bull trigger. This confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on $34.903, the Oct 23 ‘24 high and a medium-term bull trigger. Key support to watch is $32.665, the Mar 21 low.