MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - USD Downtrend Still Grips

Price Signal Summary – USD Downtrend Still Grips

• The trend condition in S&P E-Minis is unchanged, it remains bullish and the contract has continued to appreciate, this week. Short-term resistance and a bull trigger at 6128.75, the Jun 11 high, has recently been breached. Trend signals in Eurostoxx 50 futures remain bearish, however, the recovery from the Jun 23 low appears to be a reversal and the contract is holding on to the bulk of its most recent gains.
• A bull cycle in GBPUSD remains in play and a fresh cycle high Tuesday reinforces bullish conditions. This maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Note too that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position. A bear threat in USDJPY remains intact and Tuesday’s sell-off reinforces this theme. The Jun 23 shooting star candle formation highlighted a reversal of the recent recovery and this signal remains in play. The medium-term trend set-up in AUDUSD is unchanged, it remains bullish and this week’s gains strengthen current conditions. The break higher marks a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows.
• Gold traded lower last Friday resulting in a breach of the 50-day EMA, and a trendline drawn from the Dec 30 ‘24 low. A clear break of both support points would signal scope for a deeper correction - this would expose $3245.5, the May 29 low. WTI futures maintain a softer tone following the reversal from the Jun 23 high. Support to watch is at the 50-day EMA, at $64.64. It has been pierced, a clear break of it would signal scope for a deeper retracement.     
• Recent weakness in Bund futures resulted in a print below key short-term support at 130.12, the Jun 5 low. A clear break of this price point would highlight a bearish threat and undermine the recent bullish theme. A bull cycle in Gilt futures remains in play and recent weakness has proved to be a correction. Yesterday’s gains resulted in a print above 93.68, the Jun 13 high and a bull trigger.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE    

EURUSD TECHS: Trend Needle Points North                      

• RES 4: 1.1923 2.000 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - 27 price swing
• RES 3: 1.1868 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 1.1851 High Sep 10 2021 
• RES 1: 1.1829 High Jul 01
• PRICE: 1.1796 @ 05:56 BST Jul 2
• SUP 1: 1.1631 High Jun 12 and a recent breakout level
• SUP 2: 1.1578 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.1446 Low Jun 19  
• SUP 4: 1.1405 50-day EMA

The trend needle in EURUSD continues to point north and the pair is holding on to its latest gains. The breach last week of 1.1631, the Jun 12 high and a bull trigger, confirmed a resumption of the uptrend. The 1.1800 handle has been pierced, sights are on 1.1851, the Sep 10 2021 high. Key short-term support to watch lies at 1.1578, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of this average is required to signal scope for a deeper retracement.       

GBPUSD TECHS: Fresh Cycle High   

• RES 4: 1.3852 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - 7 price swing
• RES 3: 1.3835 High Oct 20 2021
• RES 2: 1.3800 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 1.3789 High Jul 01
• PRICE: 1.3741 @ 06:09 BST Jul 2
• SUP 1: 1.3632/3586 High Jun 13 / 20-day EMA 
• SUP 2: 1.3439 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.3338 Trendline support drawn from the Jan 13 low 
• SUP 4: 1.3140 Low May 12 and key support

A bull cycle in GBPUSD remains in play and a fresh cycle high Tuesday reinforces bullish conditions. This maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Note too that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant medium-term uptrend. Sights are on 1.3800 next. Initial support to watch lies at 1.3586, the 20-day EMA. A break would signal scope for a corrective pullback.         

EURGBP TECHS: MA Studies Highlight A Dominant Uptrend 

• RES 4: 0.8694 High Apr 14   
• RES 3: 0.8648 76.4% retracement of the Apr 11 - May 29 downleg
• RES 2: 0.8624 High Apr 21 
• RES 1: 0.8597 High Jul 01
• PRICE: 0.8586 @ 06:33 BST Jul 2
• SUP 1: 0.8521/8486 20- and 50-day EMA values 
• SUP 2: 0.8459 Low Jun 11 
• SUP 3: 0.8407 Low Jun 4 
• SUP 4: 0.8356 Low May 29 and the bear trigger 

The trend condition in EURGBP remains bullish and this week’s gains  reinforce current conditions. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position - highlighting a dominant uptrend. 0.8592, 61.8% of the Apr 11 - May 29 downleg, has been pierced. A continuation higher would open 0.8624, the Apr 21 high. Support to watch lies at 0.8486, the 50-day EMA. Clearance of this level would highlight a potential reversal.    

USDJPY TECHS: Bearish Cycle      

• RES 4: 149.28 High Apr 3  
• RES 3: 148.65 High May 12 and a reversal trigger
• RES 2: 146.19/148.03 High Jun 24 / 23
• RES 1: 144.97 50-day EMA  
• PRICE: 143.77 @ 07:02 BST Jul 2
• SUP 1: 142.68 Low Jul 1   
• SUP 2: 142.12 Low May 27 and a key short-term support 
• SUP 3: 141.96 76.4% retracement of the Apr 22 - May 12 upleg
• SUP 4: 141.49 Low Apr 23    

A bear threat in USDJPY remains intact and Tuesday’s sell-off reinforces this theme. The Jun 23 shooting star candle formation highlighted a reversal of the recent recovery and this signal remains in play. Note too that price has traded through the 20- and 50-day EMAs. A clear break of the EMAs strengthens a bearish threat and opens 142.12, the May 27 low and a key short-term support. Initial resistance is at 144.97, the 50-day EMA.     

EURJPY TECHS: Trend Set-Up Remains Bullish   

• RES 4: 171.28 1.382 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - Apr 7 price swing
• RES 3: 171.09 High Jul 23 ‘24  
• RES 2: 170.47 76.4% Fibonacci retracement for Jul - Aug ‘24 downleg
• RES 1: 169.91 1.236 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - Apr 7 price swing
• PRICE: 169.02 @ 16:23 BST Jul 1 
• SUP 1: 168.46 Low Jul 01 
• SUP 2: 167.41 20-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 166.04 Low Jun 19   
• SUP 4: 165.30 50-day EMA   

The trend set-up in EURJPY remains bullish and the cross is trading just below its latest highs. Recent gains resulted in a break of 166.69, the Oct 31 ‘24 high. Scope is seen for a climb towards 170.47, a key Fibonacci retracement point. Note that the uptrend is in overbought territory, a pullback would unwind this condition. Support to watch lies at 167.41, the 20-day EMA. A break of the EMA would suggest potential for a deeper retracement.       

AUDUSD TECHS: Northbound       

• RES 4: 0.6700 76.4% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Apr 9 bear leg
• RES 3: 0.6688 High Nov 7 ‘24
• RES 2: 0.6603 High Nov 11 ‘24
• RES 1: 0.6590 High Jul 01
• PRICE: 0.6571 @ 07:53 BST Jul 02 
• SUP 1: 0.6508 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 0.6459/6373 50-day EMA / Low Jun 23 and a reversal trigger     
• SUP 3: 0.6357 Low May 12
• SUP 4: 0.6275 Low Apr 14

The medium-term trend set-up in AUDUSD is unchanged, it remains bullish and this week’s gains strengthen current conditions. The break higher marks a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on 0.6603 next, the Nov 11 2024 high. Key short-term support has been defined at 0.6373, the Jun 23 low. A pullback would be considered corrective.   

USDCAD TECHS: Trend Needle Points South      

• RES 4: 1.4111 High Apr 4
• RES 3: 1.4016 High May 12 and 13 and a key resistance 
• RES 2: 1.3920 High May 21 
• RES 1: 1.3792 50-day EMA 
• PRICE: 1.3652 @ 08:01 BST Jul 2
• SUP 1: 1.3591 Low Jun 30  
• SUP 2: 1.3540 Low Jun 16 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.3503 1.618 proj of the Feb 3 - 14 - Mar 4 price swing
• SUP 4: 1.3473 Low Oct 2 2024

A downtrend in USDCAD remains intact and short-term gains between Jun 16 - 23 appear to have been corrective. Key support and the bear trigger has been defined at 1.3540, the Jun 16 low. Clearance of this price point would resume the downtrend and open 1.3503, a Fibonacci projection. Pivot resistance to monitor is at the 50-day EMA, at 1.3792. A clear break of this average would signal scope for a stronger recovery.  

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U5) Remains Above Monday’s Low                            

• RES 4: 132.42 2.000 proj of the May 14 - 20 - 22 price swing
• RES 3: 132.00 Round number resistance    
• RES 2: 131.95 High Jun 13 and the bull trigger 
• RES 1: 130.73/131.33 High Jul 1 / High Jun 20
• PRICE: 130.41 @ 05:35 BST Jul 2
• SUP 1: 130.00 Low Jun 30              
• SUP 2: 129.67 76.4% retracement of the May 14 - Jun 13 bull leg  
• SUP 3: 129.30 Low May 22   
• SUP 4: 128.97 Low May 14 and a reversal trigger  

Recent weakness in Bund futures resulted in a print below key short-term support at 130.12, the Jun 5 low. A clear break of this price point would highlight a bearish threat, undermine the recent bullish theme, and signal scope for an extension towards 129.30, the May 22 low. The contract has recovered from Monday's low. Key resistance has been defined at 131.95, the Jun 13 high. Clearance of this level would reinstate a bullish theme.                                                  

BOBL TECHS: (U5) Support Is Intact For Now                       

• RES 4: 118.649 1.382 proj of the May 21 - Jun 3 - Jun 5 swing
• RES 3: 118.531 1.236 proj of the May 21 - Jun 3 - Jun 5 swing
• RES 2: 118.390 High Jun 13 and a bull trigger 
• RES 1: 118.065 61.8% retracement of the Jun 13 - 16 downleg   
• PRICE: 117.720 @ 05:48 BST Jul 2  
• SUP 1: 117.530 Low Jun 5 and a key near-term support 
• SUP 2: 117.470 Low May 21 
• SUP 3: 117.470 Low May 21
• SUP 4: 116.660 Low Mar 27       

Bobl futures are unchanged and continue to trade in a range. A bull cycle remains intact, however, the latest pullback has exposed key short-term support at 117.530, the Jun 5 low. Clearance of this level would highlight a stronger reversal and cancel the bull theme. This would open 117.470, the May 21 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 118.390, the Jun 13 high. A break of this price point would be a bullish development.                             

SCHATZ TECHS: (U5) Trading Above Support                             

• RES 4: 107.690 High Apr 30 
• RES 3: 107.610 High May 23 and a key near-term resistance
• RES 2: 107.430/475 High Jun 13 / High May 27
• RES 1: 107.320 20-day EMA 
• PRICE: 107.250 @ 05:42 BST Jul 2
• SUP 1: 107.195/180 Low Jun 6 / 23    
• SUP 2: 107.125 Low May 12 and a key support
• SUP 3: 107.000 Round number support 
• SUP 4: 106.890 2.000 proj of the May 23 - 29 - 30 price swing

Schatz futures remain inside a range and price is trading below the Jun 13 high. Support to watch is 107.195, the Jun 6 low. It has been pierced, a clear break of it would reinstate a bearish threat and signal scope for an extension towards 107.125, the May 12 low. On the upside, clearance of 107.470, the May 30 high, is required to strengthen a bullish condition. Initial firm resistance is 107.430, Jun 13 high.                                                            

GILT TECHS: (U5) Pierces Resistance                       

• RES 4: 94.57 2.236 proj of the May 22 - 27 - 29 price swing 
• RES 3: 94.15 2.000 proj of the May 22 - 27 - 29 price swing     
• RES 2: 94.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 93.76 Intraday high
• PRICE: 93.54 @ Close BST Jul 1
• SUP 1: 92.78 20-day EMA 
• SUP 2: 92.23 Low Jun 16 and a key short-term support 
• SUP 3: 91.56 Low Jun 9   
• SUP 4: 91.44 Low Jun 8        

A bull cycle in Gilt futures remains in play and recent weakness has proved to be a correction. Yesterday’s gains resulted in a print above 93.68, the Jun 13 high and a bull trigger. A clear break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend that started May 22. This would open 94.00. Key short-term support has been defined 92.23, the Jun 16 low. First support lies at 92.78, the 20-day EMA.                                     

BTP TECHS: (U5) Bullish Trend Condition

• RES 4: 122.71 2.764proj of the May 14 - 20 - 21 price swing
• RES 3: 122.35 2.500 proj of the May 14 - 20 - 21 price swing 
• RES 2: 122.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 121.73 High Jun 13 and the bull trigger 
• PRICE: 121.22 @ Close Jul 1 
• SUP 1: 120.09 Low Jun 23      
• SUP 2: 119.48 Low May 26 
• SUP 3: 118.87 Low May 21  
• SUP 4: 118.51 Low May 14 and key support 

The trend condition in BTP futures is unchanged, it remains bullish and recent weakness appears corrective. Gains in June reinforce a bull theme and maintain the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on the 122.00 handle next. Key support to watch is unchanged at 118.51, the May 14 low. A clear break of this level would highlight a reversal. First support is 120.09, the Jun 23  low.                   

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (U5) Potential Reversal   

• RES 4: 5486.00 High May 20 and a key bull trigger  
• RES 3: 5456.00 High Jun 11 
• RES 2: 5403.00 High Jun 12 
• RES 1: 5366.00 High Jun 30    
• PRICE: 5330.00 @ 06:27 BST Jul 2 
• SUP 1: 5194.00 Low Jun 23 and a bear trigger    
• SUP 2: 5182.00 Low May 2 
• SUP 3: 5100.94 38.2% retracement of the Apr 7 - May 20 bull leg
• SUP 4: 5078.00 Low Apr 30  

Trend signals in Eurostoxx 50 futures remain bearish, however, the recovery from the Jun 23 low appears to be a reversal and the contract is holding on to the bulk of its most recent gains. Price has traded through the 20- and 50-day EMAs. A clear break of both averages would strengthen a reversal theme. This would open 5486.00, the May 20 high and bull trigger. On the downside, a breach of 5194.00, the Jun 23 low, would reinstate a bearish theme.                

E-MINI S&P: (U5) Approaching Key Resistance   

• RES 4: 6300.00 Round number resistance       
• RES 3: 6281.12 1.618 proj of the Apr 7 - 10 - 21 price swing
• RES 2: 6277.50 High Feb 19 and a bull trigger
• RES 1: 6267.75 Intraday high    
• PRICE: 6266.25 @ 07:20 BST Jul 2  
• SUP 1: 6102.47/5975.80 20- and 50-day EMA values
• SUP 2: 5811.50 Low May 23    
• SUP 3: 5645.75 Low May 7
• SUP 4: 5500.00 Low Apr 30

The trend condition in S&P E-Minis is unchanged, it remains bullish and the contract has continued to appreciate, this week. Short-term resistance and a bull trigger at 6128.75, the Jun 11 high, has recently been breached. The clear break confirms a resumption of the uptrend that started Apr 7. The 6200.00 handle has been cleared too, this opens 6277.50, the Feb 21 high and bull trigger. Key support is at the 50-day EMA - at 5975.80.   

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (U5) Bear Threat Remains Present  

• RES 4: $85.00 - Round number resistance 
• RES 3: $81.99 - 2.764 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 2: $80.72 - 2.618 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 1: $72.66/79.40 - 50.0% of the Jun 23-30 range / High Jun 23
• PRICE: $67.24 @ 07:05 BST Jul 2
• SUP 1: $65.92 - Low Jun 30 
• SUP 2: $61.39 - Low May 30
• SUP 3: $58.00 - Low May 5
• SUP 4: $57.70 - Low Apr 9 and a key support   

Brent futures are unchanged and remain in consolidation mode. The contract traded sharply lower on Jun 23, and for now, maintains a softer tone. The move down has resulted in a breach of the 50-day EMA and note too that $66.17, the 61.8% retracement of the May 5 - Jun 23 bull leg, has been pierced. A continuation lower would expose $61.39 next, the May 30 low. Initial resistance to watch is $72.66, a Fibonacci retracement point.             

WTI TECHS: (Q5) Support At The 50-Day EMA Remains Exposed          

• RES 4: $82.62 - 3.000 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 3: $80.43 - 2.764 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing 
• RES 2: $80.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 1: $71.20/78.40 - 50.0% of the Jun 23-24 range / High Jun 23  
• PRICE: $65.46 @ 07:14 BST Jul 2 
• SUP 1: $64.64/00 - 50-day EMA / Low Jun 24 
• SUP 2: $58.87 - Low May 30
• SUP 3: $54.81 - Low May 5
• SUP 4: $54.13 - Low Apr 9 and a key support  

WTI futures maintain a softer tone following the reversal from the Jun 23 high. Support to watch is at the 50-day EMA, at $64.64. It has been pierced, a clear break of it would signal scope for a deeper retracement. This would expose $58.87, the May 30 low. On the upside, initial resistance to watch is $71.20, the 50.0% retracement of the Jun 23 - 24 high-low range. Key resistance is at $78.40, the Jun 23 high.     

GOLD TECHS: Trading Above Monday’s Low                                      

• RES 4: $3547.9 - 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - Apr 7 price swing
• RES 3: $3500.1 - High Apr 22 and bull trigger
• RES 2: $3395.1 - High Jun 23  
• RES 1: $3358.0/3451.3 - High Jul 1 / High Jun 16          
• PRICE: $3335.6 @ 07:21 BST Jul 2 
• SUP 1: $3248.7 - Low Jun 30 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 2: $3204.7 - Low May 20
• SUP 3: $3121.0 - Low May 15 and key support
• SUP 4: $3085.0 - 76.4% retracement of the Apr 7 - 22 bull leg  

Gold traded lower last Friday resulting in a breach of the 50-day EMA, and a trendline drawn from the Dec 30 ‘24 low. A clear break of both support points would signal scope for a deeper correction - this would expose $3245.5, the May 29 low. The metal has recovered from Monday’s low and for now, this highlights a possible false trendline break. Stronger gains would refocus attention $3451.3, Jun 16 high. The bear trigger is $3248.7, the Jun 30 low.          

SILVER TECHS: Still Looking For Gains                    

• RES 4: $39.026 - 1.382 proj of the Apr 7 - 25 - May 15 swing
• RES 3: $38.246 - 1.236 proj of the Apr 7 - 25 - May 15 swing
• RES 2: $38.000 - Round number resistance 
• RES 1: $37.317 - High Jun 18 and the bull trigger   
• PRICE: $35.904 @ 08:01 BST Jul 2  
• SUP 1: $35.799 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $34.657/31.651 - 50-day EMA / Low May 15
• SUP 3: $30.915/28.351 - Low Apr 11 / 7 and the bear trigger  
• SUP 4: $27.686 - Low Sep 6 ‘24  

A bull cycle in Silver remains in play. The metal has recently traded through resistance at $34.903, the Oct 23 ‘24 high and a key bull trigger. The break of it marks an important medium-term bullish development. Sights are on the $38.00 handle next. On the downside, initial support to watch lies at $35.821, the 20-day EMA. It has been pierced, a clear break of it would open $34.711, the 50-day EMA.