MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - USD Dominant, Straining Trends

Price Signal Summary – USD Dominant, Straining Trends

• A bull cycle in S&P E-Minis remains intact and the contract traded to a fresh cycle high last week. This maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position too. The trend set-up in Eurostoxx 50 futures is bullish and the pullback from the Aug 22 high appears corrective - for now. Note that support at 5375.94, the 50-day EMA, has been pierced. A clear break of this average would strengthen a S/T bearish threat.
• The outlook in GBPUSD remains bullish and recent gains reinforce this theme. However, today’s sell-off undermines the bull theme and attention turns to key short-term support at 1.3391, the Aug 22 low. USDJPY continues to trade inside a range. A bear threat remains present. The short-term bear trigger lies at 146.21, the Aug 14 low. Clearance of this level would resume a downtrend that started early August. AUDUSD is holding on to the bulk of its recent gains. The latest recovery signals the end of a corrective phase that started on Jul 24, and sights are on resistance at 0.6569, the Aug 14 high.
• Gold is trading sharply higher this week as the metal extends its bull cycle. Today’s gains have resulted in breach of key resistance at $3500.1, the Apr 22 high, and delivered a fresh all-time high. A bear cycle in WTI futures remains intact and recent gains are considered corrective. A key support at $61.99, the Jun 30 low, has recently been breached, strengthening a bearish theme.
• Bund futures traded lower Monday but continue to trade above their August lows. Recently, resistance at the 50-day EMA at 129.74 has been pierced. A clear breach of the EMA would signal scope for a stronger recovery within the multi-month range. A bear cycle in Gilt futures is in play and a fresh cycle low Monday, and again today, reinforces current conditions. The continuation of the bear leg has resulted in a break of the 90.00 handle.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE    

EURUSD TECHS: Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: 1.1851 High Sep 10 2021
• RES 3: 1.1829 High Jul 01 and the bull trigger 
• RES 2: 1.1789 High Jul 24 
• RES 1: 1.1743 High Aug 22
• PRICE: 1.1696 @ 06:08 BST Sep 2
• SUP 1: 1.1574/1.1528 Low Aug 27 / Low Aug 5 
• SUP 2: 1.1392 Low Aug 1 and bear trigger 
• SUP 3: 1.1373 Low Jun 10 
• SUP 4: 1.1313 Low May 30 

EURUSD has recovered from last week’s low. The trend set-up is bullish and short-term weakness is considered corrective. Note that the pair has pierced key support around the 50-day EMA, currently at 1.1611. A clear break of the average would signal scope for a deeper retracement and potentially expose key M/T support at 1.1392, the Aug 1 low. Key resistance and the bull trigger is 1.1829, the Jul 1 high. A breach would resume the primary uptrend.  

GBPUSD TECHS: Monitoring Support 

• RES 4: 1.3753 High High Jul 2   
• RES 3: 1.3681 High Jul 4 
• RES 2: 1.3636 76.4% retracement of the Jul 1 - Aug1 downleg
• RES 1: 1.3550/3595 High Sep 1 / High Aug 14
• PRICE: 1.3439 @ 08:44 BST Sep 2
• SUP 1: 1.3391 Low Aug 22 and the bear trigger  
• SUP 2: 1.3315 61.8% retracement of the Aug 1 - 14 bull leg
• SUP 3: 1.3249 76.4% retracement of the Aug 1 - 14 bull leg 
• SUP 4: 1.3142 Low Aug 1 and a key support      

The outlook in GBPUSD remains bullish and recent gains reinforce this theme. However, today’s sell-off undermines the bull theme and attention turns to key short-term support at 1.3391, the Aug 22 low. A break of this level would signal scope for a deeper retracement and expose 1.3315, a Fibonacci retracement. For bulls, a breach of 1.3595, the Aug 14 high, is required to signal scope for a strong rally.       

EURGBP TECHS: Clears Resistance       

• RES 4: 0.8769 High Jul 28 and the bull trigger   
• RES 3: 0.8744 High Aug 7 
• RES 2: 0.8703 61.8% retracement of the Jul 28 - Aug 14 bear leg   
• RES 1: 0.8685 Intraday high  
• PRICE: 0.8683 @ 08:36 BST Sep 2
• SUP 1: 0.8597 Low Aug 14 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 2: 0.8562 50.0% retracement May 29 - Jul 28 upleg 
• SUP 3: 0.8540 Low Jun 30 
• SUP 4: 0.8514 61.8% retracement May 29 - Jul 28 upleg

EURGBP is trading higher today. This has resulted in a breach of resistance at 0.8674, the Aug 25 and 29 high. The break signals a stronger reversal and suggests scope for climb towards 0.8744, the Aug 7 high. Key resistance and the bull trigger is at 0.8769, the Jul 28 high. Key support to watch lies at  support at 0.8597, the Aug 14 low. Clearance of this level would instead confirm a resumption of the recent bearish threat.  

USDJPY TECHS: Monitoring Support  

• RES 4: 151.62 61.8% retracement of the Jan 10 - Apr 22 bear leg
• RES 3: 150.92 High Aug 1 and a key resistance 
• RES 2: 149.81 76.4% retracement of the Aug 1 - 14 bear leg 
• RES 1: 148.78/149.12 High Aug 22 / 61.8% of the Aug 1 - 14 bear leg  
• PRICE: 147.91 @ 07:01 BST Sep 2
• SUP 1: 146.21 Low Aug 14
• SUP 2: 145.86 Low Jul 24
• SUP 3: 145.40 50% retracement of the Apr - Aug upleg
• SUP 4: 145.19 Trendline drawn from the Apr 22 low 

USDJPY continues to trade inside a range. A bear threat remains present. The short-term bear trigger lies at 146.21, the Aug 14 low. Clearance of this level would resume a downtrend that started early August and pave the way for an extension towards 145.40, a Fibonacci retracement. For bulls, a stronger resumption of gains would instead open 149.12, 61.8% of the Aug 1 - 14 bear leg. 

EURJPY TECHS: MA Studies Highlight A Dominant Uptrend 

• RES 4: 177.08 2.000 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - Apr 7 price swing 
• RES 3: 175.43 High Jul 11 ‘24 and a key medium-term resistance
• RES 2: 174.86 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - Apr 7 price swing
• RES 1: 173.02/97 High Aug 13 / High Jul 28 and the bull trigger 
• PRICE: 172.35 @ 20:28 BST Sep 1
• SUP 1: 170.69 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 169.73/45 Low Jul 31 / 23.6% of the Feb 28 - Jul 28 bull leg
• SUP 3: 168.46 Low Jul 1  
• SUP 4: 167.46 Low Jun 23   

EURJPY continues to trade below its recent highs. The trend structure is bullish and key support to watch lies at the 50-day EMA at 170.69. A clear break of the average is required to highlight a stronger short-term bearish threat. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a primary uptrend. Key resistance to watch is the Jul 28 high of 173.97. Clearance of this level would confirm a continuation of the bull cycle.  

AUDUSD TECHS: Bullish Extension  

• RES 4: 0.6688 High Nov 7 ‘24
• RES 3: 0.6677 0.764 proj of the Jun 23 - Jul 11 - 17 price swing
• RES 2: 0.6625 High Jul 24 and the bull trigger 
• RES 1: 0.6569 High Aug 14 
• PRICE: 0.6538 @ 07:30 BST Sep 2
• SUP 1: 0.6463/6415 Low Aug 27 / Low Aug 21 / 22 and a bear trigger
• SUP 2: 0.6373 Low Jun 23 
• SUP 3: 0.6354 38.2% retracement of the Apr 9 - Jul 24 upleg  
• SUP 4: 0.6323 Low Apr 16

AUDUSD is holding on to the bulk of its recent gains. The latest recovery signals the end of a corrective phase that started on Jul 24, and sights are on resistance at 0.6569, the Aug 14 high. Clearance of this level would expose key resistance and the bull trigger at 0.6625, the Jul 24 high. Support to watch lies at 0.6415, the Aug 21 / 22 low. A clear break of it would instead resume the bear leg and highlight a stronger reversal.

USDCAD TECHS: Has Breached The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 1.4019 38.2% retracement of the Feb 3 - Jun 16 bear leg  
• RES 3: 1.3925 High Aug 22 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 1.3868 High Aug 26 
• RES 1: 1.3790 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.3750 @ 07:35 BST Sep 2
• SUP 1: 1.3722 Low Aug 7  
• SUP 2: 1.3709 61.8% retracement of the Jul 23 - Aug 22 bull cycle  
• SUP 3: 1.3658 76.4% retracement of the Jul 23 - Aug 22 bull cycle 
• SUP 4: 1.3637 Low Jul 25  

A bull cycle in USDCAD that started mid-June remains in play. However, the latest corrective pullback has resulted in a breach of support at the 50-day EMA, at 1.3775. A clear break of this handle signals scope for a deeper retracement and exposes 1.3722, the Aug 7 low. Moving average studies have recently crossed and are in a bull-mode position, highlighting an uptrend. The bull trigger has been defined at 1.3925, the Aug 22 high.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U5) Trading Above Its August Lows   

• RES 4: 130.60 High Aug 5 and a key resistance  
• RES 3: 130.26 High Aug 8  
• RES 2: 130.06 High Aug 14
• RES 1: 129.74/90 50-day EMA / High Aug 28  
• PRICE: 129.22 @ 05:46 BST Sep 2
• SUP 1: 128.84/128.64 Low Aug 25 / 15 and the bear trigger  
• SUP 2: 128.40 Low Apr 9
• SUP 3: 128.19 Low Mar 27 (cont) 
• SUP 4: 127.83 76.4% retracement of the Mar 11 - Apr 7 bull leg (cont)  

Bund futures traded lower Monday but continue to trade above their August lows. Recently, resistance at the 50-day EMA at 129.74 has been pierced. A clear breach of the EMA would signal scope for a stronger recovery within the multi-month range. This would open 130.06, the Aug 14 high. Key support and the bear trigger lies at 128.64. Clearance of this level would reinstate the recent bearish theme.    

BOBL TECHS: (U5) Resistance Remains Intact For Now  

• RES 4: 18.030 High Jul 22 and a reversal trigger      
• RES 3: 118.00 Round number resistance  
• RES 2: 117.710 High Aug 5 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 117.466/630 50-day EMA / High Aug 27 
• PRICE: 117.300 @ 06:03 BST Sep 2
• SUP 1: 117.040/116.950 Low Aug 25 / 15 and the bear trigger    
• SUP 2: 116.840 1.00 proj of the Jun 13 - Jul 11 - 22 price swing  
• SUP 3: 116.800 Low Mar 17 (cont) 
• SUP 4: 116.637 76.4% retracement of the Mar 6 - Apr 7 bull leg (cont)

Last week, Bobl futures traded through resistance at the 50-day EMA, currently at 117.466. The EMA remains intact for now, a clear break of it would undermine the recent bearish threat and instead signal scope for a climb towards the next important short-term resistance at 117.710, the Aug 5 high. Key support and the bear trigger has been defined at 116.950, the Aug 15 low. Clearance of this level would resume the downtrend. 

SCHATZ TECHS: (U5) Support Remains Exposed    

• RES 4: 107.245 High Jul 24  
• RES 3: 107.185 High Aug 1
• RES 2: 107.139 50-day EMA and a key area of resistance
• RES 1: 107.071/125 20-day EMA / High Aug 27 
• PRICE: 107.020 @ 06:12 BST Sep 2
• SUP 1: 106.970 Low Aug 25 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 107.964 1.618 proj of the Jul 7 - 11 - 22 price swing 
• SUP 3: 106.928 1.764 proj of the Jul 7 - 11 - 22 price swing
• SUP 4: 106.870 2.000 proj of the Jul 7 - 11 - 22 price swing

The trend outlook in Schatz futures remains bearish and recent short-term gains appear corrective. Resistance to watch is at the 50-day EMA, at 107.139. A clear break of this EMA would undermine a bear theme and signal scope for a stronger recovery. This would open 107.185, the Aug 1 high. On the downside, the bear trigger has been defined at 106.970, the Aug 25 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend.   

GILT TECHS: (Z5) Bear Cycle Extends  

• RES 4: 92.06 High Aug 14 
• RES 3: 91.45 High Aug 15      
• RES 2: 91.24 High Aug 18 and a key near-term resistance
• RES 1: 90.22/90.84 Low Aug 27 / High Aug 28 / 29 
• PRICE: 89.87 @ 08:37 BST Sep 2
• SUP 1: 89.84 1.00 proj of the Aug 21 - 27 - 28 price swing
• SUP 2: 89.68 Low Jan 15 (cont)
• SUP 3: 89.46 1.382 proj of the Aug 21 - 27 - 28 price swing   
• SUP 4: 89.22 1.618 proj of the Aug 21 - 27 - 28 price swing      

A bear cycle in Gilt futures is in play and a fresh cycle low Monday, and again today, reinforces current conditions. The continuation of the bear leg has resulted in a break of the 90.00 handle. Clearance of this level strengthens the downtrend and maintains the sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Sights are on 89.68, the Jan 15 low (cont). Initial firm resistance is at 90.84, the Aug 28 and 29 high.  

BTP TECHS: (U5) Support Stays Intact For Now      

• RES 4: 122.35 2.500 proj of the May 14 - 20 - 21 price swing
• RES 3: 122.00 Round number resistance 
• RES 2: 121.73 High Jun 13 and the bull trigger 
• RES 1: 120.75 High Aug 21
• PRICE: 119.93 @ Close Sep 1
• SUP 1: 119.59 Low Jul 25 and key short-term support         
• SUP 2: 119.48 Low May 26 
• SUP 3: 118.87 Low May 21  
• SUP 4: 118.51 Low May 14 and key support 

The primary trend condition in BTP futures is unchanged and the direction remains up. However, for now, the contract continues to trade inside a broad range and the Aug 15 sell-off signals scope for a move towards the lower end of the range. Key support to watch lies at 119.59, the Jul 25 low. A clear break of this level would highlight a range breakout and a bearish threat. Key resistance is unchanged at 121.73, the Jun 13 high.                      

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (U5) Corrective Cycle  

• RES 4: 5575.00 High Mar 3 and a major resistance (cont) 
• RES 3: 5568.00 High Mar 6  
• RES 2: 5526.00 High Mar 19 / 20 (cont) 
• RES 1: 5445.00/5522.00 High Aug 26 / 22 
• PRICE: 5357.00 @ 06:40 BST Sep 2
• SUP 1: 5353.00 Low Aug 29 
• SUP 2: 5325.00 Low Aug 12   
• SUP 3: 5301.99 61.8% retracement of the Aug 1 - 22 rally  
• SUP 4: 5280.00 Low Aug 7   

The trend set-up in Eurostoxx 50 futures is bullish and the pullback from the Aug 22 high appears corrective - for now. Note that support at 5375.94, the 50-day EMA, has been pierced. A clear break of this average would strengthen a S/T bearish threat and signal scope for a deeper retracement towards 5166.00, the Aug 1 low and a key support. On the upside, resistance to watch is 5522.00, the Aug 22 high. A break of it would resume the uptrend.  

E-MINI S&P: (U5) Bull Cycle Remains In Play 

• RES 4: 6600.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 6590.30 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 6543.75 2.00 proj of the Apr 7 - 10 - 21 price swing  
• RES 1: 6523.63 1.764 proj of the May 23 - Jun 11 - 23 price swing
• PRICE: 6467.25 @ 07:15 BST Sep 2
• SUP 1: 6439.95/6362.75 20-day EMA / Low Aug 20
• SUP 2: 6332.30 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 6313.25 Low Aug 6 
• SUP 4: 6239.50 Low Aug 1 and a key support

A bull cycle in S&P E-Minis remains intact and the contract traded to a fresh cycle high last week. This maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position too, highlighting a clear uptrend and positive market sentiment. Attention is on 6543.75, a Fibonacci projection. Support to watch lies at 6332.30, the 50-day EMA. The latest pullback appears corrective.   

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (X5) Corrective Cycle Extends   

• RES 4: $79.16 - 2.618 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 3: $77.28 - 2.382 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 2: $76.39 - High Jun 23 and a bull trigger 
• RES 1: $69.06/71.93 - High Aug 4 / High Jul 30 and a key resistance 
• PRICE: $68.56 @ 07:08 BST Sep 2
• SUP 1: $64.50 - Low Jun 30 and a key short-term support
• SUP 2: $60.82 - Low May 30
• SUP 3: $58.37 - Low May 5
• SUP 4: $57.81 - Low Apr 9 and a key support   

Brent futures are trading higher. Short-term gains are for now, considered corrective and a bear cycle remains intact. A resumption of weakness would refocus attention on $64.50, the Jun 30 low, where a clear break would confirm a resumption of the bear leg. This would open $60.82, the May 30 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at $71.93, the Jul 30 high. Clearance of this level would cancel a bear theme.  

WTI TECHS: (V5) Corrective Phase 

• RES 4: $77.85 - 2.794 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 3: $75.65 - 2.500 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 2: $74.25 - High Jun 23 and a bull trigger 
• RES 1: $66.56/69.36 - High Aug 4 / High Jul 30 and key resistance   
• PRICE: $65.05 @ 07:10 BST Sep 2
• SUP 1: $61.29 - Low Aug 13 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 2: $57.71 - Low May 30
• SUP 3: $54.80 - Low May 5
• SUP 4: $54.03 - Low Apr 9 and a key support

A bear cycle in WTI futures remains intact and recent gains are considered corrective. A key support at $61.99, the Jun 30 low, has recently been breached, strengthening a bearish theme. A continuation lower would open $57.71, the May 30 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at $69.36, the Jul 30 high. Clearance of this level would cancel a bear theme. Initial resistance to watch is $66.56, the Aug 4 high. 

GOLD TECHS: Fresh All-Time High    

• RES 4: $3600.0 - Round number resistance 
• RES 3: $3547.9 - 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - Apr 7 price swing
• RES 2: $3539.7 - 2.00 proj of the Dec 30 ’24 - Apr 3 - 7 price swing
• RES 1: $3508.7 - Intraday high              
• PRICE: $3495.8 @ 06:19 BST Sep 2
• SUP 1: $3437.1 - Low Sep 1  
• SUP 2: $3381.8 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: $3353.8 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: $3311.6 - Low Aug 20  

Gold is trading sharply higher this week as the metal extends its bull cycle. Today’s gains have resulted in breach of key resistance at $3500.1, the Apr 22 high, and delivered a fresh all-time high. This confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend and an extension of the sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The next objective is $3547.9, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support to watch lies at $3381.8, the 20-day EMA.               

SILVER TECHS: Northbound

• RES 4: $40.323 - 2.000 proj of the Apr 7 - 25 - May 15 swing
• RES 3: $42.000 - Round number resistance  
• RES 2: $41.064 - 1.764 proj of the Apr 7 - 25 - May 15 swing
• RES 1: $40.850 - Intraday high      
• PRICE: $40.688 @ 07:58 BST Sep 2
• SUP 1: $38.585 - 20-day EMA 
• SUP 2: $37.661 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $36.216 - Low Jul 31 and a key support   
• SUP 4: $35.285 - Low Jun 24

Trend signals in Silver remain bullish and the metal traded sharply higher Monday. Resistance at $35.930, the Jul 23 high, has been cleared. This confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, reinforcing current trend conditions. Sights are on $41.064 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial support to watch is $38.585, the 20-day EMA.