MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - USD Dip Renews Downside Bias

Price Signal Summary – USD Dip Renews Downside Bias

• The trend condition in S&P E-Minis remains bullish. Last Thursday’s initial gains delivered a print above 5993.50, the May 20 high and a bull trigger. The break highlights a resumption of the uptrend and maintains a price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The trend cycle in Eurostoxx 50 futures is unchanged, it remains bullish and recent weakness appears corrective. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a clear dominant uptrend.  
• The trend condition in GBPUSD remains bullish and the latest shallow retracement is considered corrective. First key support lies at 1.3394, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of this average would suggest potential for a deeper correction. A bear cycle in USDJPY remains in play and the pullback from last Thursday’s high suggests the latest corrective bounce is over. Looking at price patterns, the May 29 session is a shooting star candle - a bearish signal. A downtrend in USDCAD remains intact. The pair is trading lower today and is approaching support at 1.3686, the May 26 low and bear trigger. A breach of this short-term support would confirm a resumption of the downtrend.
• A bullish theme in Gold remains intact and recent gains signal the end of the corrective phase between Apr 22 - May 15. Medium-term trend signals are bullish too - moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. WTI futures are in consolidation mode. The contract traded to a fresh short-term cycle high on May 21 before finding resistance. A bear threat remains intact and the recovery since Apr 9, appears corrective. Key resistance is $62.47.          
• A bullish theme in Bund futures remains intact and the contract is holding on to its latest gains. The recent recovery suggests the move down between Apr 22 - May 15, has been a correction. A bear cycle in Gilt futures remains in play. The contract has recovered from its recent lows - gains are considered corrective and this is allowing a short-term oversold condition to unwind.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE    

EURUSD TECHS: Bull Cycle Remains In Play                     

• RES 4: 1.1608 High Nov 9 2021
• RES 3: 1.1573 High Apr 21 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 1.1453 76.4% retracement of the Apr 21 - May 12 bear leg
• RES 1: 1.1419 High May 26 and a bull trigger     
• PRICE: 1.1368 @ 06:08 BST Jun 2
• SUP 1: 1.1210 Low May 29
• SUP 2: 1.1172/1.1065 50-day EMA and a pivot level / Low May 12
• SUP 3: 1.1026 38.2% retracement of the Feb 3 - Apr 21 bull cycle
• SUP 4: 1.0943 Low Apr 10

A bullish theme in EURUSD remains intact and the pair is trading closer to its recent highs. Support to watch lies at 1.1172, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average would undermine the bull theme and signal scope for a deeper retracement. This would open 1.1065, the May 12 low. On the upside, a break of 1.1419, the May 26 high, would be bullish and open 1.1573, the Apr 21 high and bull trigger.   

GBPUSD TECHS: Trend Needle Points North   

• RES 4: 1.3913 High Sep 14 2021
• RES 3: 1.3681 1.500 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - 7 price swing
• RES 2: 1.3605 1.382 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - 7 price swing
• RES 1: 1.3593 High May 26 and a bull trigger  
• PRICE: 1.3493 @ 06:27 BST Jun 2
• SUP 1: 1.3394 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.3335/3232 Low May 20 / 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.3140 Low May 12 and key support
• SUP 4: 1.3041 Low Apr 14

The trend condition in GBPUSD remains bullish and the latest shallow retracement is considered corrective. First key support lies at 1.3394, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of this average would suggest potential for a deeper correction and expose the 50-day EMA, at 1.3232. For bulls, a  resumption of gains would refocus attention on 1.3593, the May 26 high and bull trigger. Clearance of this level would resume the uptrend.    

EURGBP TECHS: Trend Structure Remains Bearish  

• RES 4: 0.8557 High Apr 28  
• RES 3: 0.8541 High May 2 
• RES 2: 0.8493 High May 9  
• RES 1: 0.8443 50-day EMA and a key near-term resistance
• PRICE: 0.8427 @ 06:42 BST Jun 2 
• SUP 1: 0.8356 Low May 29 
• SUP 2: 0.8327 1.382 proj of the Apr 11 - 16 - 21 price swing
• SUP 3: 0.8316 Low Mar 28 and a key support
• SUP 4: 0.8277 1.618 proj of the Apr 11 - 16 - 21 price swing

EURGBP has recovered from its recent low. Despite these latest gains, a downtrend remains intact. Key short-term resistance is at  0.8443, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average would highlight a stronger reversal and expose 0.8541. For bears, support to watch lies at 0.8356, last Thursday’s low. Clearance of this level would resume the downtrend. Scope is seen for an extension towards 0.8316, the Mar 28 low and a key support. 

USDJPY TECHS: Support Remains Exposed  

• RES 4: 150.49 High Apr 2   
• RES 3: 149.28 High Apr 3
• RES 2: 147.67/148.65 High May 14 / 12 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 146.28 May 29 high   
• PRICE: 143.32 @ 06:58 BST Jun 2
• SUP 1: 142.12 Low May 27 and a key support
• SUP 2: 141.96 76.4% retracement of the Apr 22 - May 12 bull leg
• SUP 3: 139.89 Low Apr 22 and a bear trigger 
• SUP 4: 138.82 1.50 proj of the Feb 12 - Mar 11 - 28 price swing 

A bear cycle in USDJPY remains in play and the pullback from last Thursday’s high suggests the latest corrective bounce is over. Looking at price patterns, the May 29 session is a shooting star candle - a bearish signal. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 146.28, the May 29 high. A continuation lower would expose 142.12, the May 27 low. Clearance of this level would resume the bear leg.  

EURJPY TECHS: Bull Cycle Still In Play  

• RES 4: 166.69 High Oct 31 2024 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 166.10 High Nov 6         
• RES 2: 165.21/43 High May 13 and bull trigger / High Nov 8 2024 
• RES 1: 164.26 High May 29 
• PRICE: 163.17 @ 07:34 BST Jun 2 
• SUP 1: 162.50/161.09 50-day EMA / Low May 23 and key support
• SUP 2: 160.99 Low Apr 22  
• SUP 3: 160.01 50% Retracement Feb’25 - May’25 Upleg
• SUP 4: 159.48 Low Apr 9  

The latest recovery in EURJPY signals the end of the corrective pullback between May 13 - 23. If correct, the move higher also marks a resumption of the uptrend. Key short-term support has been defined at 161.09, the May 23 low, where a break is required to highlight a stronger reversal and suggest scope for a deeper correction. Sights are on 165.21, the May 13 high and bull trigger. A break of this level would resume the uptrend.   

AUDUSD TECHS: Trading Above Support   

• RES 4: 0.6603 High Nov 11 ‘24  
• RES 3: 0.6582 High Nov 12 ‘24
• RES 2: 0.6550 61.8% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Apr 9 bear leg
• RES 1: 0.6537 High May 26  
• PRICE: 0.6468 @ 07:57 BST Jun 2 
• SUP 1: 0.6396/85 2.0% Lower 10-day Bollinger Band / 50-day EMA 
• SUP 2: 0.6357 Low May 12    
• SUP 3: 0.6275 Low Apr 14 
• SUP 4: 0.6181 Low Apr 11 

AUDUSD trend signals remain bullish and the pair continues to trade closer to its recent highs. Key support lies at 0.6385, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average is required to signal a potential short-term reversal. The pair has recently cleared a key short-term resistance at 0.6515, the May 7 high. This confirms a resumption of the uptrend. A continuation higher would open 0.6550, a Fibonacci retracement.  

USDCAD TECHS: Approaching The Bear Trigger   

• RES 4: 1.4200 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 1.4111 High Apr 4
• RES 2: 1.3957/1.4016 50-day EMA / High May 12 and 13
• RES 1: 1.3854 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.3694 @ 08:07 BST Jun 2 
• SUP 1: 1.3686 Low May 26 and bear trigger    
• SUP 2: 1.3643 Low Oct 9 ‘24
• SUP 3: 1.3579 1.500 proj of the Feb 3 - 14 - Mar 4 price swing 
• SUP 4: 1.3503 1.618 proj of the Feb 3 - 14 - Mar 4 price swing 

A downtrend in USDCAD remains intact. The pair is trading lower today and is approaching support at 1.3686, the May 26 low and bear trigger. A breach of this short-term support would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and maintain the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. This would open 1.3643, the Oct 9 2024 low. Resistance at the 50-day EMA is at 1.3957 - a key level. The 20- EMA is at 1.3854.    

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M5) Bullish Outlook                          

• RES 4: 132.56 High Feb 28 and a key resistance               
• RES 3: 132.03 High Apr 7 and the bull trigger     
• RES 2: 131.72 High May 7 
• RES 1: 131.44 High May 30                       
• PRICE: 131.20 @ 05:46 BST Jun 2
• SUP 1: 130.39 May 29 low              
• SUP 2: 129.49/13 Low May 22 / 15 and key short-term support
• SUP 3: 129.02 Low Apr 10 
• SUP 4: 128.60 Low Apr 9 and a key support

A bullish theme in Bund futures remains intact and the contract is holding on to its latest gains. The recent recovery suggests the move down between Apr 22 - May 15, has been a correction. A continuation higher would strengthen the reversal and signal scope for a climb towards 132.03, the Apr 7 high. Key short-term support to watch is 129.13, the May 15 low. First support lies at 130.39, the May 29 low.                                             

BOBL TECHS: (M5) Trading At Its Recent Highs                      

• RES 4: 119.960 High Apr 7 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 119.780 High Apr 22          
• RES 2: 119.600 High May 7
• RES 1: 119.280 High May 30
• PRICE: 119.190 @ 05:57 BST Jun 2  
• SUP 1: 118.760/390 50-day EMA / Low May 22
• SUP 2: 118.060 Low May 14 and 15 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 117.680 Low Apr 9 and a key support
• SUP 4: 117.600 Low Mar 28     

Bobl futures are holding on to their recent highs. The recovery since May 14  continues to highlight a reversal and the end of the Apr 22 - May 15 corrective cycle. A continuation higher would pave the way for a move towards 119.600, the May 7 high. Further out, scope would be for an extension towards 119.960, the Apr 7 high and a key resistance. Key support and the bear trigger lies at 118.060, the May 14 / 15 low.                      

SCHATZ TECHS: (M5) Resistance Remains Exposed                                       

• RES 4: 107.812 0.618 proj of the Mar 6 - Apr 7  - 9 price swing
• RES 3: 107.775 High Apr 7 and the bull trigger 
• RES 2: 107.600 High Apr 30  
• RES 1: 107.405/550 High May 27 / High May 7 and 23
• PRICE: 107.370 @ 06:09 BST Jun 2
• SUP 1: 107.255 Low May 29   
• SUP 2: 107.195/070 Low May 22 / 13 and the bear trigger    
• SUP 3: 106.965 Low Apr 9 and a key support
• SUP 4: 106.928 61.8% retracement of the Mar 6 - Apr 7 bull cycle     

A bull cycle in Schatz futures that started May 13, remains intact. Resistance at 107.335, the May 12 / 20 high, has been cleared. The break signals a stronger reversal and exposes 107.550, the May 7 high. A clear breach of this level would strengthen a bullish theme. For bears, a deeper pullback would instead signal scope for an extension towards 106.965, the Apr 9 low. The bear trigger has been defined at 107.070, the May 13 low.                                                           

GILT TECHS: (U5) Monitoring Resistance                       

• RES 4: 92.53 High May 8 (cont) 
• RES 3: 92.40 Low May 8      
• RES 2: 92.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 91.87/89 High May 20 / 27 and key near-term resistance
• PRICE: 91.48 @ Close May 30
• SUP 1: 90.59 Low May 29
• SUP 2: 90.11 Low May 22 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 3: 90.00 Round number support    
• SUP 4: 89.68 Low Jan 15 (cont)        

A bear cycle in Gilt futures remains in play. The contract has recovered from its recent lows - gains are considered corrective and this is allowing a short-term oversold condition to unwind. The bear trigger has been defined at 90.11, the May 22 low. Key short-term resistance to watch is 91.87, the May 20 high. It has been pierced, a clear break of this level is required to highlight a stronger reversal.                                 

BTP TECHS: (M5) Bull Cycle Extends                                       

• RES 4: 122.70 2.000 proj of the Mar 14 - Apr 4 - 9 price swing
• RES 3: 122.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 121.93 76.4% of the Dec 5 ‘24 - Mar 14 bear leg (cont)
• RES 1: 121.43 1.618 proj of the Mar 14 - Apr 4 - 9 price swing
• PRICE: 121.15 @ Close May 30 
• SUP 1: 120.22 20-day EMA      
• SUP 2: 119.58/00 50-day EMA / Low May 14
• SUP 3: 118.76/09 Low Apr 15 / 14
• SUP 4: 117.28 Low Apr 10

A bull cycle in BTP futures remains intact and last week’s gains reinforce current conditions. Key resistance and the bull trigger at 120.72, the May 8 high, has been cleared. This confirms a resumption of the uptrend and opens 121.43 next, a Fibonacci projection. Key support to watch lies at 119.58, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of the average would signal scope for a deeper retracement. First support lies at 120.22, the 20-day EMA.                  

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M5) Trend Structure Remains Bullish 

• RES 4: 5600.00 Round number resistance    
• RES 3: 5565.23 1.618 proj of the Apr 7 - 9 - 10 price swing
• RES 2: 5516.00 High Mar 3 and the key bull trigger
• RES 1: 5475.00 High May 20  
• PRICE: 5343.00 @ 06:32 BST Jun 2 
• SUP 1: 5337.91 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 5254.09 50-day EMA and a key support 
• SUP 3: 5142.00 Low May 2         
• SUP 4: 5055.00 Low Apr 30  

The trend cycle in Eurostoxx 50 futures is unchanged, it remains bullish and recent weakness appears corrective. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a clear dominant uptrend. Sights are on 5516.00, the Mar 3 high and the key bull trigger. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bull theme. Key support to watch lies at 5254.09, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average would signal a possible reversal.               

E-MINI S&P: (M5) Bullish Theme 

• RES 4: 6124.00 High Feb 24     
• RES 3: 6080.75 High Feb 26  
• RES 2: 6057.00 High Mar 3
• RES 1: 6008.00 High May 29 
• PRICE: 5884.50 @ 07:21 BST Jun 2  
• SUP 1: 5825.39/5749.04 20- and 50-day EMA values
• SUP 2: 5596.00 Low May 7  
• SUP 3: 5455.50 Low Apr 30
• SUP 4: 5355.25 Low Apr 24 

The trend condition in S&P E-Minis remains bullish. Last Thursday’s initial gains delivered a print above 5993.50, the May 20 high and a bull trigger. The break highlights a resumption of the uptrend and maintains a price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. 6000.00 has been pierced, an extension would open 6057.00 next, the Mar 3 high. Key support lies at 5742.22, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average is required to highlight a reversal.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (Q5) Bear Threat Remains Present   

• RES 4: $75.33 - High Feb 20 
• RES 3: $73.88 - High Apr 2 and a bull trigger
• RES 2: $69.73 - 61.8% retracement of the Apr 2 - 9 sell-off 
• RES 1: $65.31/66.30 - 50-day EMA / High May 13
• PRICE: $64.17 @ 07:06 BST Jun 2
• SUP 1: $62.09/57.78 - Low May 30 / Low April 9 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: $55.88 - 2.236 proj of the Feb 20 - Mar 5 - Apr 2 price swing
• SUP 3: $54.70 - 2.382 proj of the Feb 20 - Mar 5 - Apr 2 price swing
• SUP 4: $54.00 - Round number support

The medium-term trend condition in Brent futures is unchanged and remains bearish - recent gains still appear to have been a correction. Attention is on $65.31, the 50-day EMA. It has been pierced. A clear break of the EMA would highlight a stronger bull cycle and expose $67.73, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, a stronger reversal lower from recent highs would open $57.78, the Apr 9 low.       

WTI TECHS: (N5) Monitoring Resistance At The 50-Day EMA       

• RES 4: $72.12 - High Feb 20  
• RES 3: $71.10 - High Apr 2 and key resistance
• RES 2: $65.82 - High Apr 4 2 and key resistance
• RES 1: $62.47/64.19 - 50-day EMA / High May 21
• PRICE: $62.38 @ 07:17 BST Jun 2 
• SUP 1: $59.74/54.33 - Low May 30 / Low April 9 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: $53.30 - 2.236 proj of the Feb 20 - Mar 5 - Apr 2 price swing
• SUP 3: $52.14 - 2.382 proj of the Jan 15 - Feb 4 - 11 price swing
• SUP 4: $50.00 - Psychological round number  

WTI futures are in consolidation mode. The contract traded to a fresh short-term cycle high on May 21 before finding resistance. A bear threat remains intact and the recovery since Apr 9, appears corrective. Key resistance is $62.47, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of it would highlight a stronger reversal and open $65.82, the Apr 4 high. For bears a reversal lower would refocus attention on $54.33, the Apr 9 low and bear trigger. 

GOLD TECHS: Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat                                 

• RES 4: $3578.0 - 2.000 proj of the Dec 19 - Feb 24 - Feb 28 swing
• RES 3: $3547.9 - 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - Apr 7 price swing
• RES 2: $3435.6/3500.1 - High May 7 / High Apr 22 and bull trigger
• RES 1: $3365.9 - High May 23        
• PRICE: $3332.7 @ 07:21 BST Jun 2 
• SUP 1: $3213.7 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: $3121.0 - Low May 15 and key support 
• SUP 3: $3085.0 - 61.8% retracement of the Apr 7 - Apr 22 upleg
• SUP 4: $3100.0 - Round number support 

A bullish theme in Gold remains intact and recent gains signal the end of the corrective phase between Apr 22 - May 15. Medium-term trend signals are bullish too - moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. A resumption of gains would open $3435.6 next, the May 7 high. Key support and the bear trigger to watch, has been defined at $3121.0, the May 15 low.     

SILVER TECHS: Still Looking For Gains                 

• RES 4: $36.000 - Round number resistance 
• RES 3: $34.903 - High Oct 23 ‘24 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: $34.590 - High Mar 28  
• RES 1: $33.686/700 - High Apr 25 / High May 22
• PRICE: $33.260 @ 08:10 BST Jun 2 
• SUP 1: $31.651 -  Low May 15 
• SUP 2: $30.915/28.351 - Low Apr 11 / 7 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $27.686 - Low Sep 6 ‘24   
• SUP 4: $27.180 - Low Aug 14 ‘24   

A bullish theme in Silver remains intact and price is trading closer to its recent highs. Key short-term support has been defined at $31.651, the May 15 low. A clear break of this level is required to highlight a reversal and signal scope for a deeper retracement. This would open $30.915, the Apr 11 low. For bulls, resistance to watch is $33.686, the Apr 25 high. It has been pierced, a clear break of it would confirm a resumption of the uptrend.