MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Two-Way Gilt Risk into Budget

Price Signal Summary – Gilts See Two-Way Risk into Budget

• S&P E-Minis are trading higher as the contract extends the recovery from the Nov 21 low. The climb has resulted in a breach of the 20- and 50- day EMAs. This highlights a bullish development and the likely end of the corrective cycle between Oct 30 and Nov 21. A bearish theme in EUROSTOXX 50 futures remains present following recent weakness. However, the contract has traded above the 50-day EMA, at 5595.08, and pierced the 20-day EMA, at 5620.85.
• The trend theme in GBPUSD is unchanged and conditions are bearish. Short-term gains are considered corrective. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode condition, highlighting a dominant downtrend. The trend set-up in EURGBP remains bullish and the latest pullback appears corrective - for now. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. A bearish theme in AUDUSD remains intact and the latest recovery, at least for now, appears corrective. The pair has recently breached 0.6440, the Oct 14 low and a key short-term level.
• The trend condition in Gold remains bullish and the bear phase between Oct 20 and 28 appears to have been a correction. This allowed a recent overbought condition to unwind. Recent weakness in WTI futures highlights a bearish theme. A stronger resumption of the bear leg would pave the way for a move towards key support and the bear trigger at $55.99, the Oct 20 low.
• Short-term gains in Bund futures appear corrective - for now. However, the contract has traded through the 50-day EMA, at 129.04. A clear break of this average would signal scope for a stronger recovery and open 129.40, the Nov 13 high. A recent sharp sell-off in Gilt futures highlights a stronger bear threat, however, yesterday’s gains undermine this theme. The contract is firmer and has breached short-term resistance.

[CROSS ASSET]: Refreshing the MNI Tech Trend Monitor, Adding Gold, Silver, JPY

• We refresh our Global Tech Trend Monitor, adding longer-term techs for Spot Gold, Silver and USDJPY, while refreshing levels for UK Gilt 10y and 30y yields as well as the Europe Banking Stock Index (SX7E).
• See full document here:  https://emedia.marketnews.com/marketnewsintl/MNITechTrendMonitorOct25.pdf

FOREIGN EXCHANGE    

EURUSD TECHS: Monitoring Resistance 

• RES 4: 1.1728 High Oct 17
• RES 3: 1.1694 50.0% retracement of the Sep 17 - Nov 5 bear leg  
• RES 2: 1.1656 High Nov 13 and key resistance
• RES 1: 1.1.1604 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.1590 @ 06:09 GMT Nov 26
• SUP 1: 1.1491/1469 Low Nov 21 / 5 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 2: 1.1425 1.500 proj of the Oct 17 - 22 - 28 price swing
• SUP 3: 1.1392 Low Aug 1 and bear trigger 
• SUP 4: 1.1313 Low May 30

The trend structure in EURUSD remains bearish and this week’s recovery appears corrective - for now. Key short-term resistance to monitor is 1.1656, the Nov 13 high and a reversal trigger. Clearance of this level would highlight a reversal. Initial resistance is at 1.1604, the 50-day EMA. For bears, a resumption of weakness would open key support at 1.1469, the Nov 5 low. Clearance of this level would resume the downtrend.    

GBPUSD TECHS: Monitoring Resistance   

• RES 4: 1.3368 50.0% retracement of the Sep 17 - Nov 4 bear leg    
• RES 3: 1.3284 38.2% retracement of the Sep 17 - Nov 4 bear leg   
• RES 2: 1.3261 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.3216 High Nov 13
• PRICE: 1.3195 @ 06:23 GMT Nov 26
• SUP 1: 1.3038/10 Low Nov 20 / Low Nov 4 & 5 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 2: 1.2971 1.382 proj of the Sep 17 - 25 - Oct 1 price swing
• SUP 3: 1.2945 50.0% retracement of the Jan 13 - Jul 1 bull leg
• SUP 4: 1.2877 1.618 proj of the Sep 17 - 25 - Oct 1 price swing          

The trend theme in GBPUSD is unchanged and conditions are bearish. Short-term gains are considered corrective. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode condition, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Key resistance to watch is 1.3261, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this hurdle would highlight a potential reversal. 1.3010, the Nov 4 / 5 low, is the trigger for a resumption of the bear leg. 

EURGBP TECHS: Corrective Pullback 

• RES 4: 0.8893 2.000 proj of the Sep 15 - 25 - Oct 8 price swing    
• RES 3: 0.8875 High Apr 25 
• RES 2: 0.8868 61.8% retracement of the 2022 - 2024 bear leg
• RES 1: 0.8865 High Nov 14
• PRICE: 0.8785 @ 06:36 GMT Nov 26
• SUP 1: 0.8766 Low Nov 25   
• SUP 2: 0.8751 50-day EMA and a key near-term support
• SUP 3: 0.8726 Low Oct 28 
• SUP 4: 0.8656 Low Oct 8 and a key support  

The trend set-up in EURGBP remains bullish and the latest pullback appears corrective - for now. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on 0.8868 next, a Fibonacci retracement point. On the downside, the 20-day EMA has been breached. The next key support to monitor is 0.8751, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of the EMA would highlight a potential reversal.      

USDJPY TECHS: Pullback Appears Corrective

• RES 4: 158.87 High Jan 10 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 158.29 2.618 projection of the Sep 17 - 26 - Oct 1 price swing
• RES 2: 158.00 Round number resistance 
• RES 1: 157.89 High Nov 20 
• PRICE: 156.26 @ 07:16 GMT Nov 26
• SUP 1: 154.89 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 153.62 Low Nov 14   
• SUP 3: 152.65 50-day EMA  
• SUP 4: 151.54 Low Oct 29 

The trend set-up in USDJPY remains bullish and the latest shallow pullback appears corrective. Note that the pair has recently entered overbought territory. A deeper retracement would allow this condition to unwind. Support to watch is 154.89, the 20-day EMA. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. A resumption of the uptrend would open 158.00.      

EURJPY TECHS: Northbound

• RES 4: 184.34 2.000 proj of the Jul 31 - Sep 29 - Oct 2 price swing
• RES 3: 183.16 Bull channel top drawn from the Feb 28 low
• RES 2: 183.07 1.764 proj of the Jul 31 - Sep 29 - Oct 2 price swing 
• RES 1: 182.01 High Nov 20 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 181.08 @ 08:03 GMT Nov 26
• SUP 1: 179.77 Low Nov 21
• SUP 2: 179.19/177.12 20- and 50-day EMA values 
• SUP 3: 175.71 Low Nov 5  
• SUP 4: 175.03 Bull channel support drawn from the Feb 28 low 

A bull cycle in EURJPY remains intact and the cross is trading closer to its recent highs. The move higher last week confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are 183.16, the top of a bull channel drawn from the Feb 28 low. First key support lies at 179.19, the 20-day EMA. A pullback would be considered corrective.

AUDUSD TECHS: Bear Theme Intact Despite A Bounce  

• RES 4: 0.6660 High Sep 18 
• RES 3: 0.6644 76.4% retracement of the Sep-Oct bear leg
• RES 2: 0.6618 High Oct 29 and a key near-term resistance  
• RES 1: 0.6520/6580 50-day EMA / High Nov 13 
• PRICE: 0.6501 @ 08:10 GMT Nov 26 
• SUP 1: 0.6421 Low Nov 21
• SUP 2: 0.6415 Low Aug 21 / 22 and a bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.6404 38.2% retracement of the Apr 9 - Sep 17 bull cycle 
• SUP 4: 0.6373 Low Jun 23   

A bearish theme in AUDUSD remains intact and the latest recovery, at least for now, appears corrective . The pair has recently breached 0.6440, the Oct 14 low and a key short-term level. The clear break exposes 0.6415, the Aug 21 / 22 low and the trigger for a stronger downleg. Moving average studies remain in a bear-mode position, this set-up continues to highlight a dominant downtrend. Initial key resistance to watch is 0.6520, the 50-day EMA.          

USDCAD TECHS: Bull Cycle Intact  

• RES 4: 1.4200 Round number resistance 
• RES 3: 1.4192 Channel top drawn from Jul 23 low
• RES 2: 1.4140/67 High Nov 5 / 50.0% of the Feb 3 - Jun 16 bear leg
• RES 1: 1.4131 High Nov 21  
• PRICE: 1.4072 @ 08:16 GMT Nov 26
• SUP 1: 1.4049/3991 20- and 50-day EMA values
• SUP 2: 1.3916 Bull channel base drawn from the Jul 23 low
• SUP 3: 1.3888 Low Oct 29 and a key support 
• SUP 4: 1.3833 Low Sep 24  

A bullish USDCAD condition remains intact and the pair is holding on to the bulk of its recent gains. Attention is on 1.4140, the Nov 5 high and the next key resistance. Note too that the top of the bull channel, drawn from the Jul 23 low, is at 1.4192 and also represents a key resistance. Key support to watch lies at 1.3991, the 50-day EMA. A clear breach of the average would expose the base of the channel at 1.3916.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (Z5) Trades Through The 50-Day EMA                   

• RES 4: 130.07 High Oct 24   
• RES 3: 129.74 61.8% retracement of the Oct 17 - Nov 20 bear leg  
• RES 2: 129.40 High Nov 13 
• RES 1: 129.16 High Nov 25         
• PRICE: 129.00 @ 05:48 GMT Nov 26 
• SUP 1: 128.37 Low Nov 20 and the short-term bear trigger      
• SUP 2: 128.25 Low Oct 7
• SUP 3: 127.88 Low Sep 25 and key support
• SUP 4: 127.61 Low Sep 3 and a key M/T support

Short-term gains in Bund futures appear corrective - for now. However, the contract has traded through the 50-day EMA, at 129.04. A clear break of this average would signal scope for a stronger recovery and open 129.40, the Nov 13 high. Key short-term support and the bear trigger has been defined at  128.37, the Nov 20 low. A break of this level would instead resume the bear leg and signal scope for an extension towards 128.25, the Oct 7 low.             

BOBL TECHS: (Z5) Resistance Remains Intact For Now      

• RES 4: 118.600 High Oct 24       
• RES 3: 118.360 High Oct 28   
• RES 2: 118.270 High Nov 5  
• RES 1: 118.092/180 50-day EMA / High Nov 21   
• PRICE: 118.050 @ 05:59 GMT Nov 26
• SUP 1: 117.790 Low Nov 20 and the bear trigger  
• SUP 2: 117.710 Low Oct 6  
• SUP 3: 117.630 Low Oct 1  
• SUP 4: 117.470 Low Sep 15 and a key support 

The short-term trend theme in Bobl futures is unchanged and remains bearish. Gains appear corrective. Recent weakness resulted in a breach of 118.043, 61.8% of the Sep 25 - Oct 17 bull cycle. Note that 117.824, the 76.4% retracement, has been pierced. A resumption of the downleg would open 117.630, the Oct 1 low. Initial firm resistance is at 118.092, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of it is required to signal a potential reversal.    

SCHATZ TECHS: (Z5) Bear Theme Remains Intact        

• RES 4: 107.175 High Oct 24
• RES 3: 107.095 High Oct 28 / 31
• RES 2: 107.057 50-day EMA 
• RES 1: 107.020 20-day EMA   
• PRICE: 106.995 @ 06:14 GMT Nov 26
• SUP 1: 106.945 Low Nov 17   
• SUP 2: 106.920 Low Sep 25 and a key support 
• SUP 3: 106.900 Round number support
• SUP 4: 106.830 Low Mar 27 (cont.)  

The short-term trend condition in Schatz futures is unchanged, it remains bearish and the latest bounce appears corrective. Recent weakness paves the way for an extension towards 106.920, the Sep 25 low and a key support. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bear theme. Initial firm resistance to watch is at the 50-day EMA, at 107.057. A clear break of this average would highlight a potential reversal.             

GILT TECHS: (H6) Strong Bounce                  

• RES 4: 91.92 76.4% retracement of the Nov 11 - 19 bear leg  
• RES 3: 91.74 Low Nov 6 and a gap high on the daily chart         
• RES 2: 91.52 61.8% retracement of the Nov 11 - 19 bear leg 
• RES 1: 91.26 High Nov 25     
• PRICE: 91.21 @ Close Nov 25
• SUP 1: 90.53 Low Nov 25       
• SUP 2: 90.28 Low Nov 21  
• SUP 3: 90.00 Round number support    
• SUP 4: 89.86 Low Nov 19 and the bear trigger     

A recent sharp sell-off in Gilt futures highlights a stronger bear threat, however, yesterday’s gains undermine this theme. The contract is firmer and has breached short-term resistance. A continuation higher would signal scope for a climb towards 91.52 next, a Fibonacci retracement point.  Key support and the bear trigger has been defined at 89.86, the Nov 19 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the bear leg.           

BTP TECHS: (Z5) Trend Structure Remains Bullish        

• RES 4: 123.14 1.764 proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 25 price swing
• RES 3: 122.81 1.618 proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 25 price swing
• RES 2: 122.53 1.500 proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 25 price swing
• RES 1: 121.70/94 High Nov 13 / High Oct 17 / 22 and the bull trigger  
• PRICE: 121.38 @ Close Nov 25
• SUP 1: 120.48 Low Nov 20 and key short-term support           
• SUP 2: 120.15 50.0% retracement of the Sep 3 - Oct 17 bull leg 
• SUP 3: 119.73 61.8% retracement of the Sep 3 - Oct 17 bull leg
• SUP 4: 119.07 Low Sep 25

The trend set-up in BTP futures is bullish and the latest pullback appears to have been a correction. A strong rally yesterday reinforces this theme. Note that the MA studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. A continuation higher would expose the bull trigger at 121.94, the Oct 17 and 22 high. Key short-term support has been defined at 120.48, the Nov 20 low. A clear breach of this level would resume the recent bear leg.                     

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (Z5) Testing Resistance   

• RES 4: 5744.00 High Nov 14     
• RES 3: 5691.30 61.8% retracement of the Nov 13 - 21 bear leg
• RES 2: 5650.00 50.0% retracement of the Nov 13 - 21 bear leg   
• RES 1: 5637.50 Base of former bull channel drawn from Aug 1 low        
• PRICE: 5619.00 @ 06:41 GMT Nov 26
• SUP 1: 5475.00 Low Nov 21 and the bear trigger     
• SUP 2: 5427.01 61.8% retracement of the Aug 1 - Nov 13 bull cycle  
• SUP 3: 5383.00 Low Sep 18 
• SUP 4: 5366.00 Low Sep 17      

A bearish theme in EUROSTOXX 50 futures remains present following recent weakness. However, the contract has traded above the 50-day EMA, at 5595.08, and pierced the 20-day EMA, at 5620.85. A clear break of both averages would highlight a possible reversal and signal scope for a stronger recovery. This would open 5691.30, a Fibonacci retracement point. Key short-term support and the bear trigger is at 5475.00, the Nov 21 low.             

E-MINI S&P: (Z5) Bullish Recovery              

• RES 4: 6953.75 High Oct 30 and bull trigger
• RES 3: 6900.50 High Nov 12
• RES 2: 6852.56 76.4% retracement of the Oct 30 - Nov 21 bear leg 
• RES 1: 6841.33 Trendline resistance drawn from the Oct 30 high    
• PRICE: 9808.50 @ 07:48 GMT Nov 26
• SUP 1: 6674.50/6525.00 Low Nov 25 / 21  
• SUP 2: 6500.00 Round number support 
• SUP 3: 6476.62 23.6% retracement of the Apr 7 - Oct 30 uptrend
• SUP 4: 6427.00 Low Sep 2  

S&P E-Minis are trading higher as the contract extends the recovery from the Nov 21 low. The climb has resulted in a breach of the 20- and 50- day EMAs. This highlights a bullish development and the likely end of the corrective cycle between Oct 30 and Nov 21. A continuation higher would signal scope for a climb towards the key resistance and bull trigger at 6953.75, the Oct 30 high. Key support has been defined at 6525.00, the Nov 21 low.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (F6) Bearish Theme            

• RES 4: $71.45 - 76.4% retracement of the Jun 23 - Oct 20 bear leg  
• RES 3: $70.69 - High Jul 30
• RES 2: $69.29 - High Sep 26 and a key resistance 
• RES 1: $65.95 - High Oct 24 
• PRICE: $92.83 @ 07:09 GMT Nov 26
• SUP 1: $59.97 - Low Nov 20 and the bear trigger  
• SUP 2: $58.72 - Low May 5
• SUP 3: $57.99 - Low Apr 9 and a key support
• SUP 4: $56.05 - 2.00 proj of the Jul 30 - Aug 13 - Sep 26 price swing 

The move down on Nov 12 in Brent futures and the subsequent sell-off, highlights a bearish theme. A stronger resumption of weakness would expose key support and the bear trigger at $59.97, the Oct 20 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a continuation of the bear cycle. Note, it is still possible that a bullish corrective cycle is in play. A move above resistance at $65.95, the Oct 24 high, would signal scope for a stronger recovery near-term.       

WTI TECHS: (F6) Still Trading Below Resistance          

• RES 4: $71.38 - High Jun 23 and a key medium-term resistance 
• RES 3: $67.16 - High Jul 30
• RES 2: $65.33 - High Sep 26 and key resistance 
• RES 1: $61.84 - High Oct 24    
• PRICE: $58.16 @ 07:20 GMT Nov 26 
• SUP 1: $55.99 - Low Oct 20 and bear trigger
• SUP 2: $55.33 - Low May 1
• SUP 3: $54.72 - Low Apr 9 and a key support
• SUP 4: $53.53 - 1.764 proj of the Jul 30 - Aug 13 - Sep 26 price swing   

Recent weakness in WTI futures highlights a bearish theme. A stronger resumption of the bear leg would pave the way for a move towards key support and the bear trigger at $55.99, the Oct 20 low. Clearance of this level would resume the downtrend. Note that it is still possible a bullish corrective cycle remains in play. Resistance to watch is $61.84, the Oct 24 high. A clear break of this hurdle would signal scope for a stronger correction.     

GOLD TECHS: Trend Needle Points North          

• RES 4: $4404.9 - 3.500 proj of the May 15 - Jun 16 - 30 price swing
• RES 3: $4381.5 - High Oct 20 and bull trigger
• RES 2: $4264.7 - 76.4% retracement of the Oct 20 - 28 correction 
• RES 1: $4245.2 - High Nov 13                    
• PRICE: $4153.0 @ 07:28 GMT Nov 26 
• SUP 1: $3966.8 - 50-day EMA 
• SUP 2: $3886.6 - Low Oct 28 and a reversal trigger
• SUP 3: $3800.00 Round number support 
• SUP 4: $3760.9 - Low Sep 29 

The trend condition in Gold remains bullish and the bear phase between Oct 20 and 28 appears to have been a correction. This allowed a recent overbought condition to unwind. Key support to watch lies at the 50-day EMA, at $3966.8. Clearance of this EMA would signal scope for a deeper retracement. The first short-term bull trigger has been defined at $4245.23, the Nov 13 high.                      

SILVER TECHS: Bullish Trend Structure    

• RES 4: $56.153 2.500 proj of the Aug 20 - Sep 16 - 17 price swing   
• RES 3: $55.444 2.382 proj of the Aug 20 - Sep 16 - 17 price swing
• RES 2: $55.000 Round number resistance
• RES 1: $54.480 - High Oct 17 and the bull trigger   
• PRICE: $52.141 @ 08:19 GMT Nov 26
• SUP 1: $48.644 - Low Nov 21  
• SUP 2: $48.149/45.557 - 50-day EMA / Low Oct 28 
• SUP 3: $41.135 - Low Sep 17
• SUP 4: $38.087 - Low Aug 27  

Trend signals in Silver remain bullish and recent weakness is considered corrective, for now. Support to watch lies at the 50-day EMA, at $48.149. A clear breach of this average would signal scope for a deeper retracement. On the upside, a resumption of gains would refocus attention on the bull trigger at $54.480, the Oct 17 high. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the primary uptrend and open $55.444, a Fibonacci projection.