MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Stocks Bull Cycle Firms

Price Signal Summary – Stocks Bull Cycle Firms 

• A bull cycle in S&P E-Minis remains intact. The contract traded to a fresh cycle high last week to confirm a resumption of the uptrend and maintain the positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Eurostoxx 50 futures remain in a bull-mode condition. Last week’s gains resulted in a breach of key resistance at 5525.00, the Aug 22 high. The break confirms a resumption of the uptrend.                   
• Short-term bearish conditions in GBPUSD remain in place - for now. Initial key resistance to watch is unchanged at 1.3537, the Sep 23 high and a near-term pivot level. A bullish theme remains intact in USDJPY following Monday's strong start to the week. Yesterday’s rally resulted in a breach of resistance at 149.96, the Sep 26 high and a key short-term resistance. The trend in EURJPY remains bullish and Monday’s strong start to this week’s session reinforces current conditions. The cross has cleared resistance at 175.13, the Sep 29 high, to confirm a resumption of the primary uptrend.
• A bull cycle in Gold remains in play and Monday’s fresh cycle high, reinforces current conditions. This maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. WTI futures remain in a bear-mode condition and gains are considered corrective. Last week’s sell-off resulted in a move through key support and the bear trigger at $60.85, the Aug 13 low.                      
• Bund futures are trading closer to last week’s highs. The recent climb appears corrective. Key support and the bear trigger lies at 127.61, the Sep 3 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a continuation of the medium-term bear cycle. Gilt futures continue to trade above the Sep 26 low. Recent weakness strengthens a bearish theme and does suggest the end of the corrective phase between Sep 3 - 11.

[GLOBAL] MNI Tech Trend Monitor - Highlighting Key Longer-Term Trends:
MNI Tech Trend Monitor: https://emedia.marketnews.com/marketnewsintl/MNITechTrendMonitor.pdf

We introduce the MNI Tech Trend Monitor - This document highlights a selection of key longer-term trends that we have identified in markets that could be reaching inflection points, trend reversals/extensions or technically significant levels.

Covering:

• UK Gilt 10y Yield
• UK Gilt 30y Yield
• ICE USD Index
• Europe Banking Stock Index (SX7E)

FOREIGN EXCHANGE    

EURUSD TECHS: Trend Structure Remains Bullish 

• RES 4: 1.2063 2.236 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - 247 price swing
• RES 3: 1.2000 Round number resistance 
• RES 2: 1.1919 High Sep 17 and a bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.1779/1820 High Oct 1 / High Sep 23  
• PRICE: 1.1696 @ 06:05 BST Oct 7
• SUP 1: 1.1690/46 50-day EMA / Low Sep 25 
• SUP 2: 1.1574 Low Aug 27
• SUP 3: 1.1528 Low Aug 5
• SUP 4: 1.1392 Low Aug 1 and bear trigger.

The primary trend direction in EURUSD is up and recent weakness appears corrective. Support to watch is 1.1690, the 50-day EMA. It has been pierced, a clear break of the EMA is required to signal scope for a deeper retracement and expose 1.1574, the Aug 27 low. For bulls, a clear resumption of gains would open 1.1919, the Sep 7 high and bull trigger. Note that MA studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant medium-term uptrend.       

GBPUSD TECHS: Short-Term Bear Cycle Still In Play    

• RES 4: 1.3789 High Jul 1 and key resistance    
• RES 3: 1.3726 High Sep 17 
• RES 2: 1.3661 High Sep 18
• RES 1: 1.3537 High Sep 23 and a pivot level 
• PRICE: 1.3464 @ 06:20 BST Oct 7
• SUP 1: 1.3324 Low Sep 25 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 2: 1.3282 Low Aug 6
• SUP 3: 1.3254 Low Aug 4
• SUP 4: 1.3144 38.2% retracement of the Jan 13 - Jul 1 bull cycle          

Short-term bearish conditions in GBPUSD remain in place - for now. Initial key resistance to watch is unchanged at 1.3537, the Sep 23 high and a near-term pivot level. Clearance of this hurdle would signal a potential reversal. Recent weakness resulted in the break of a trendline drawn from the Aug 1 low. A support at 1.3333, the Sep 3 low, has been pierced. A clear breach of this support would open 1.3282, the Aug 6 low.           

EURGBP TECHS: Monitoring Support At The 50-day EMA          

• RES 4: 0.8835 High May 3 2023  
• RES 3: 0.8800 Round number resistance 
• RES 2: 0.8769 High Jul 28 and the bull trigger 
• RES 1: 0.8751 High Sep 25  
• PRICE: 0.8686 @ 06:31 BST Oct 7
• SUP 1: 0.8673/8597 50-day EMA / Low Aug 14 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 0.8633 Low Sep 15 
• SUP 3: 0.8562 50.0% retracement May 29 - Jul 28 upleg
• SUP 4: 0.8540 Low Jun 30

Short-term weakness in EURGBP appears corrective and the trend condition is bullish. The cross traded lower on Monday. Initial firm support to watch lies at 0.8673, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this level would signal scope for a deeper retracement. Note that the key trend support lies at  0.8597, the Aug 14 low. A breach of this level would instead reinstate a bearish threat. For bulls, key resistance and the bull trigger is 0.8769, the Jul 28 high. 

USDJPY TECHS: Approaching Key Resistance           

• RES 4: 151.62 61.8% retracement of the Jan 10 - Apr 22 bear leg
• RES 3: 151.21 High Mar 28 
• RES 2: 150.92 High Aug 1 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 150.48 High Oct 6
• PRICE: 150.48 @ 06:53 BST Oct 7
• SUP 1: 149.05 Low Oct 6 
• SUP 2: 148.10/147.67 20- and 50-day EMA values   
• SUP 3: 146.59 Trendline support drawn from the Apr 22 low 
• SUP 4: 145.49 Low Sept 17

A bullish theme remains intact in USDJPY following Monday's strong start to the week. Yesterday’s rally resulted in a breach of resistance at 149.96, the Sep 26 high and a key short-term resistance. This paves the way for a test of the key medium-term resistance at 150.92, the Aug 1 high. A break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the bull leg that started Apr 22. Monday’s intraday low at 149.05 is first support.

EURJPY TECHS: Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat

• RES 4: 178.94 1.236 proj of the Jul 31 - Sep 29 - Oct 2 price swing  
• RES 3: 177.67 1.000 proj of the Jul 31 - Sep 29 - Oct 2 price swing 
• RES 2: 177.00 Round number resistance 
• RES 1: 176.35 High Oct 6      
• PRICE: 175.96 @ 06:58 BST Oct 7
• SUP 1: 173.92 Monday’s low
• SUP 2: 172.27 Low Oct 2 and key support   
• SUP 3: 171.12 Low Aug 28  
• SUP 4: 170.62 Low Aug 6   

The trend in EURJPY remains bullish and Monday’s strong start to this week’s session reinforces current conditions. The cross has cleared resistance at 175.13, the Sep 29 high, to confirm a resumption of the primary uptrend. This maintains the bullish sequence of higher highs and higher lows and opens the 177.00 handle next. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at 172.27, the Oct 2 low.  

AUDUSD TECHS: Bull Cycle Remains In Play   

• RES 4: 0.6763 1.382 proj of the Jun 23 - Jul 24 - Aug 21 price swing
• RES 3: 0.6726 1.236 proj of the Jun 23 - Jul 24 - Aug 21 price swing
• RES 2: 0.6660/6707 High Sep 18 / 17 and key resistance
• RES 1: 0.6629 High Sep 30 & Oct 01
• PRICE: 0.6598 @ 07:550 BST Oct 7
• SUP 1: 0.6527/21 61.8% of the Aug 21 - Sep 17 bull leg / Low Sep 26 
• SUP 2: 0.6484 76.4% retracement of the Aug 21 - Sep 17 bull leg
• SUP 3: 0.6463/6415 Low Aug 27 / Low Aug 21 / 22 and a bear trigger 
• SUP 4: 0.6373 Low Jun 23

The AUDUSD uptrend remains intact and the pair continues to trade closer to its recent highs. Support to watch lies at the 50-day EMA, at 0.6562. A clear break of this average would signal scope for a deeper retracement and expose 0.6527 once again, a Fibonacci retracement. For bulls, a stronger reversal higher would refocus attention on 0.6707, the Sep 17 high. Initial resistance to watch is 0.6629, the Sep 30 and Oct 1 high.    

USDCAD TECHS: Northbound 

• RES 4: 1.4111 High Apr 10 
• RES 3: 1.4071 3.0% Upper Bollinger Band
• RES 2: 1.4019 38.2% retracement of the Feb 3 - Jun 16 bear leg
• RES 1: 1.3985 200-dma
• PRICE: 1.3955 @ 08:00 BST Oct 7
• SUP 1: 1.3897/3834 Low Sep 30 / 50-day EMA  
• SUP 2: 1.3727 Low Aug 29 and a bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.3689 Low Jul 28  
• SUP 4: 1.3637 Low Jul 25  

A bull cycle in USDCAD remains intact and last week’s clearance of the late  September’s high, reinforces current conditions. The move higher maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Note too that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on 1.4019, a Fibonacci retracement point. On the downside, first key support lies at 1.3834, the 50-day EMA.  

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (Z5) Trading Closer To Its Recent Highs          

• RES 4: 129.50 High Aug 5  
• RES 3: 129.44 High Sep 10 and key short-term resistance     
• RES 2: 129.13 High Sep 17 
• RES 1: 128.84 61.8% retracement of the Sep 10 - 25 bear leg    
• PRICE: 128.52 @ 05:37 BST Oct 7
• SUP 1: 128.24/127.88 Low Oct 1 / Low Sep 25       
• SUP 2: 127.61 Low Sep 3 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 127.46 1.00 proj of the Aug 14 - 15 - 28 price swing  
• SUP 4: 127.13 1.236 proj of the Aug 14 - 15 - 28 price swing  

Bund futures are trading closer to last week’s highs. The recent climb appears corrective. Key support and the bear trigger lies at 127.61, the Sep 3 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a continuation of the medium-term bear cycle. For bulls, a clear reversal higher would refocus attention on key resistance at 129.44, the Sep 10 high. First resistance is 128.84, 61.8% of the Sep 10 - 25 bear leg.           

BOBL TECHS: (Z5) Corrective Cycle   

• RES 4: 118.170 Low Sep 10      
• RES 3: 118.090 High Sep 17 and a key short-term resistance 
• RES 2: 118.040 High Sep 18   
• RES 1: 117.970 High Oct 6   
• PRICE: 117.860 @ 05:44 BST Oct 7
• SUP 1: 117.630/470 Low Oct 1 / Low Sep 25  
• SUP 2: 117.450 1.000 proj of the Sep 8 - 12 - 17 price swing  
• SUP 3: 117.299 1.236 proj of the Sep 8 - 12 - 17 price swing  
• SUP 4: 117.080 Low Sep 2 (cont.) 

Recent gains in Bobl futures still appear corrective and the trend condition is bearish. A price sequence of lower lows and lower highs is intact, and on the continuation chart moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Sights are on 117.450, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, key short-term resistance is 118.090, the Sep 18 high. A move above this level would signal a potential reversal.      

SCHATZ TECHS: (Z5) Resistance Remains Intact  

• RES 4: 107.240 High Aug 4 
• RES 3: 107.225 High Aug 27 and the bull trigger 
• RES 2: 107.145/190 High Sep 11 / High Sep 5 and 8
• RES 1: 107.050 Low Aug 25 and Sep 2 and a recent breakout level 
• PRICE: 107.015 @ 05:23 BST Oct 7
• SUP 1: 106.920 Low Sep 25 and the bear trigger   
• SUP 2: 106.907 1.618 proj of the the Aug 27 - Sep 2 - 8 price swing  
• SUP 3: 106.900 Round number support
• SUP 4: 106.881 1.764 proj of the the Aug 27 - Sep 2 - 8 price swing

The trend structure in Schatz futures is unchanged, it remains bearish and recent gains appear corrective. A fresh cycle low on Sep 25, confirmed a resumption of the downtrend. This maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. A resumption of weakness would open 106.907 next, a Fibonacci projection, ahead of the 106.900 handle. On the upside, initial firm resistance is at 107.050, the Aug 25 and Sep 2 low.       

GILT TECHS: (Z5) Outlook Remains Bearish       

• RES 4: 92.30 High Aug 7
• RES 3: 92.06 High Aug 14      
• RES 2: 92.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 91.28/82 High Sep 24 / 11
• PRICE: 90.65 @ Close Oct 6
• SUP 1: 90.26/89.94 Low Sep 26 / 76.4% of the Sep 3 - 11 correction     
• SUP 2: 90.31/89.36 Low Sep 4 / 3
• SUP 3: 89.36 Low Sep 3  
• SUP 4: 89.22 1.618 proj of the Aug 21 - 27 - 28 price swing  

Gilt futures continue to trade above the Sep 26 low. Recent weakness strengthens a bearish theme and does suggest the end of the corrective phase between Sep 3 - 11. Note that on the continuation chart, moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. A resumption of the bear leg would open 89.94, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial resistance to watch is 91.28, the Sep 24 high.     

BTP TECHS: (Z5) Still Looking For Gains     

• RES 4: 122.56 0.764 proj of the Apr 9 - May 8 - 14 price swing (cont)
• RES 3: 121.88 0.618 proj of the Apr 9 - May 8 - 14 price swing (cont) 
• RES 2: 121.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 120.74 High Aug 5 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 119.79 @ Close Oct 6
• SUP 1: 119.06/118.36 Low Sep 4 / 3         
• SUP 2: 118.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 117.70 2.236 proj of the Aug 5 - 12 - 14 price swing  
• SUP 4: 117.36 2.500 proj of the Aug 5 - 12 - 14 price swing 

The primary trend condition in BTP futures is unchanged, it remains bullish and the most recent pullback appears to have been a correction. The strong rally that started Sep 3 reinforces a bull theme and signals the end of the larger corrective pullback between Aug 5 - Sep 3. Key resistance and the bull trigger is 120.74, the Aug 5 high. A break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the trend. Key support to watch lies at 118.36, the Sep 3 low.                          

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (Z5) Trend Needle Points North   

• RES 4: 5777.41 1.382 proj of the Aug 1 - 22 - Sep 2 price swing
• RES 3: 5727.18 1.236 proj of the Aug 1 - 22 - Sep 2 price swing  
• RES 2: 5700.00 Round number resistance 
• RES 1: 5689.00 High Oct 2       
• PRICE: 5644.00 @ 06:30 BST Oct 7
• SUP 1: 5618.00/5525.00 Low Oct 6 / High Aug 22 
• SUP 2: 5516.58 20-day EMA  
• SUP 3: 5449.007 50-day EMA   
• SUP 4: 5366.00 Low Sep 17    

Eurostoxx 50 futures remain in a bull-mode condition. Last week’s gains resulted in a breach of key resistance at 5525.00, the Aug 22 high. The break confirms a resumption of the uptrend. The impulsive climb opens the 5700.00 handle next, with potential for a test of 5727.18 further out, a Fibonacci projection. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position too, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Initial firm support is 5525.00, Aug 22 high.       

E-MINI S&P: (Z5) Uptrend Intact  

• RES 4: 6831.38 2.500 proj of the Aug 20 - 28 - Sep 2 price swing 
• RES 3: 6819.25 1.500 proj of the Aug 1 - 15 - 20 price swing
• RES 2: 6812.29 2.382 proj of the Aug 20 - 28 - Sep 2 price swing
• RES 1: 6800.00 Round number resistance and the Oct 3 high 
• PRICE: 6778.75 @ 07:26 BST Oct 7
• SUP 1: 6694.17 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 6624.25 Low Sep 25 
• SUP 3: 6575.48 50-day EMA 
• SUP 4: 6506.50 Low Sep 5 

A bull cycle in S&P E-Minis remains intact. The contract traded to a fresh cycle high last week to confirm a resumption of the uptrend and maintain the positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on 6812.29, a Fibonacci projection. Initial support to watch is at the 20-day EMA, at 6694.17. It has recently been pierced, a clear break of it would signal scope for a deeper pullback, potentially towards the 50-day EMA, at 6575.48.     

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (Z5) Bear Theme Intact        

• RES 4: $78.63 - 2.618 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 3: $76.82 - 2.382 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 2: $75.43 - High Jun 23 and a bull trigger 
• RES 1: $69.87/71.20 - High Sep 26 / High Jul 30 and key resistance 
• PRICE: $65.72 @ 07:07 BST Oct 7
• SUP 1: $64.00 - Low Oct 2
• SUP 2: $60.85 - Low May 30 
• SUP 3: $58.50 - Low May 5
• SUP 4: $57.88 - Low Apr 9 and a key support   

A bearish theme in Brent futures remains intact and short-term gains are considered corrective. Last week’s sell-off saw the contract trade through key support and the bear trigger at $64.20, the Jun 30 low. Clearance of this level strengthens a bearish theme and paves the way for an extension towards $60.85, the May 30 low. Initial firm resistance has been defined at $69.87, the Sep 26 high. A break of this level would instead signal a reversal.      

WTI TECHS: (X5) Bear Threat Remains Present  

• RES 4: $76.89 - 2.764 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 3: $74.79- 2.500 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 2: $73.39 - High Jun 23 and a bull trigger 
• RES 1: $66.42/68.43 - High Sep 29 and key resistance / High Jul 30   
• PRICE: $61.93 @ 07:16 BST Oct 7
• SUP 1: $60.40 - Low Oct 2 
• SUP 2: $57.50 - Low May 30
• SUP 3: $54.89 - Low May 5
• SUP 4: $54.10 - Low Apr 9 and a key support

WTI futures remain in a bear-mode condition and gains are considered corrective. Last week’s sell-off resulted in a move through key support and the bear trigger at $60.85, the Aug 13 low. Clearance of this level strengthens a bearish theme and paves the way for an extension towards $57.50, the May 30 low. Initial firm resistance has been defined at $66.42, the Sep 29 high. Clearance of this level would highlight a reversal.    

GOLD TECHS: Northbound      

• RES 4: $4035.6 - 2.382 proj of the May 15 - Jun 16 - 30 price swing
• RES 3: $4000.0 - Psychological round number 
• RES 2: $3987.3 - 2.236 proj of the May 15 - Jun 16 - 30 price swing
• RES 1: $3977.4 - Intraday high               
• PRICE: $3963.1 @ 07:24 BST Oct 7
• SUP 1: $3819.6 - Low Oct 2  
• SUP 2: $3753.2 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: $3683.8 - Low Sep 22
• SUP 4: $3599.8 - 50-day EMA  

A bull cycle in Gold remains in play and Monday’s fresh cycle high, reinforces current conditions. This maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Furthermore, momentum studies highlight a condition known as momentum drag - where momentum studies remain in overbought territory and move sideways - a bullish signal. Sights are on $3987.3 next, a Fibonacci projection. Support to watch lies at $3753.2, the 20-day EMA.                  

SILVER TECHS: Bull Wave

• RES 4: $49.804 - All-time high Apr 2011 and major resistance  
• RES 3: $49.444 - 3.236 proj of the Sep 4 - 16 - 17 price swing
• RES 2: $49.000 - Round number resistance 
• RES 1: $48.838 - 3.000 proj of the Sep 4 - 16 - 17 price swing     
• PRICE: $48.380 @ 08:05 BST Oct 7
• SUP 1: $45.913/44.764 - Low Oct 2 / 20-day EMA 
• SUP 2: $41.872 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $40.404 - Low Sep 4   
• SUP 4: $38.087 - Low Aug 27

Trend signals in Silver remain bullish. The metal traded to a fresh cycle on Monday, as the bull cycle extends. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position too, reinforcing current conditions. Sights are $48.838 next, a 3.000 projection of the Sep 4 - 16 - 17 price swing. Clearance of this level would pave the way for a climb towards the $49.00 handle. Initial firm support to watch lies at $44.764, the 20-day EMA.