MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Silver Rally Clears All Res

Price Signal Summary – Silver Rally Clear of All Resistance

• The recent pullback in S&P E-Minis appears to have been a correction. A key short-term support has been defined at 6771.50, the Dec 18 low. A break of this level would signal scope for a deeper retracement of the recent bull phase. A bull cycle in EUROSTOXX 50 futures remains intact and the latest pullback appears to have been a correction. The first key support to watch lies at 5685.07, the 50-day EMA.
• The trend condition in GBPUSD remains bullish and this week’s strong start reinforces current conditions. The pair has traded to a fresh short-term cycle high, confirming a resumption of the uptrend that started early November. The trend structure in USDJPY is bullish and the latest pullback is considered corrective - for now. Note that MA studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. The trend condition in AUDUSD remains bullish and a strong rally so far this week reinforces current conditions. Support at the 20-day EMA, at 0.6605, has been pierced.
• Trend signals in Silver remain bullish and another fresh cycle high, today, reinforces bullish conditions. This also maintains the current impulsive nature of the rally. Note that moving average studies are in a bull position and this continues to highlight a dominant medium-term uptrend. The trend condition in WTI futures remains bearish and short-term gains are considered corrective. MA studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend.
• Bund futures remain in a clear downtrend and Monday’s fresh cycle low reinforces current conditions. The move lower confirms a resumption of the downtrend and maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Recent price action in Gilt futures highlights 90.50, the Dec 16 low, and 91.93, the Nov 27 high, as two important short-term directional triggers. A clear breach of support at 90.50 would signal scope for a deeper retracement.

[CROSS ASSET] MNI Tech Trend Monitor

• We refresh our Global Tech Trend Monitor, adding longer-term techs for USDMXN, EURHUF, EURGBP, Bitcoin and the USD Index as well as refreshing levels for Spot Gold, Silver, USDJPY, UK Gilt Yields and the Europe Banking Stock Index (SX7E).

See full document here: https://emedia.marketnews.com/marketnewsintl/TechTrendMonitorNov.pdf

FOREIGN EXCHANGE    

EURUSD TECHS: Trend Needle Points North    

• RES 4: 1.1919 - High Sep 17 and a key M/T resistance   
• RES 3: 1.1848 High Sep 18 
• RES 2: 1.1813 76.4% retracement of the Sep 17 - Nov 5 bear leg
• RES 1: 1.1804 High Dec 16 and a key short-term resistance 
• PRICE: 1.1775 @ 06:06 GMT Dec 23
• SUP 1: 1.1683 20-day EMA 
• SUP 2: 1.1649 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 1.1615 Low Dec 9 
• SUP 4: 1.1591 Low Dec 2

The trend in EURUSD remains bullish and Monday’s rally highlights the end of the recent corrective pullback. The first important support lies at 1.1683, the 20-day EMA. A clear breach of this average would signal scope for a deeper retracement, allowing an overbought condition to unwind. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 1.1804, the Dec 16 high. Clearance of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend.      

GBPUSD TECHS: Fresh Cycle High

• RES 4: 1.3661 High Sep 18    
• RES 3: 1.3557 76.4% retracement of the Sep 17 - Nov 4 bear leg 
• RES 2: 1.3527 High Oct 1
• RES 1: 1.3512 Intraday high 
• PRICE: 1.3504 @ 08:11 GMT Dec 23
• SUP 1: 1.3371 Low Dec 22
• SUP 2: 1.3306 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.3180 Low Dec 2 
• SUP 4: 1.3125 Low Nov 26      

The trend condition in GBPUSD remains bullish and this week’s strong start reinforces current conditions. The pair has traded to a fresh short-term cycle high, confirming a resumption of the uptrend that started early November. Note that moving average studies have recently crossed and are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on 1.3527, the Oct 1 high. Initial firm support is 1.3306, the 50-day EMA. 

EURGBP TECHS: Support Remains Intact For Now 

• RES 4: 0.8865 High Nov 14 and a bull trigger   
• RES 3: 0.8840 High Nov 20
• RES 2: 0.8818 High Nov 26
• RES 1: 0.8797 High Dec 17 and a key resistance
• PRICE: 0.8730 @ 06:25 GMT Dec 23
• SUP 1: 0.8721 Low Dec 9 and a key near-term support
• SUP 2: 0.8706 76.4% retracement of the Oct 8 - Nov 14 bull leg
• SUP 3: 0.8670 Low Oct 21   
• SUP 4: 0.8656 Low Oct 8 and a key support  

A bull cycle in EURGBP that started Dec 9 remains in place for now, and support to watch lies at 0.8721, the Dec 9 low. A clear break of this level would undermine the bull theme and instead signal scope for a deeper corrective pullback. This would open 0.8706, a Fibonacci retracement point. Initial key short-term resistance has been defined at 0.8797, the Dec 17 high. Clearance of this hurdle would be a bullish development.          

USDJPY TECHS: Monitoring Support

• RES 4: 158.87 High Jan 10 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 158.29 2.618 projection of the Sep 17 - 26 - Oct 1 price swing
• RES 2: 158.00 Round number resistance 
• RES 1: 157.89 High Nov 20 and bull trigger 
• PRICE: 156.11 @ 06:42 GMT Dec 23
• SUP 1: 155.84/154.40 20- and 50-day EMA values
• SUP 2: 153.62 Low Nov 14  
• SUP 3: 152.82 Low Nov 7 
• SUP 4: 151.54 Low Oct 29 

The trend structure in USDJPY is bullish and the latest pullback is considered corrective - for now. Note that MA studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on 157.89, the Nov 20 high and a bull trigger. A break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend. Support to watch lies at 154.40, the 50-day EMA. A clear breach of it would undermine the bull theme and signal scope for a deeper corrective pullback. 

EURJPY TECHS: Sights Are On Channel Resistance 

• RES 4: 186.41 2.618 proj of the Jul 31 - Sep 29 - Oct 2 price swing
• RES 3: 185.77 2.5000 proj of the Jul 31 - Sep 29 - Oct 2 price swing
• RES 2: 185.16 Bull channel top drawn from the Feb 28 low
• RES 1: 184.92 High Dec 22
• PRICE: 183.72 @ 06:59 GMT Dec 23
• SUP 1: 182.07 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 179.85 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 178.48 Low Nov 12
• SUP 4: 177.02 Bull channel support drawn from the Feb 28 low

The trend structure in EURJPY is bullish and last Friday’s impulsive rally strengthens current conditions. The move higher confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend. Sights are on 185.16, the top of a bull channel drawn from the Feb 28 low. This level also represents a key resistance point. On the downside, support to watch lies at 182.07, the 20-day EMA. A breach of it would signal the start of a corrective cycle.   

AUDUSD TECHS: Structure Remains Bullish     

• RES 4: 0.6759 High Oct 11 ‘24   
• RES 3: 0.6723 High Oct 21 ‘24 
• RES 2: 0.6707 High Sep 17 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 0.6686 High Dec 10
• PRICE: 0.6677 @ 07:55 GMT Dec 23 
• SUP 1: 0.6593 Low Dec 18
• SUP 2: 0.6571 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 0.6517 Low Nov 27 
• SUP 4: 0.6466/21 Low Nov 26 / 21 

The trend condition in AUDUSD remains bullish and a strong rally so far this week reinforces current conditions. Support at the 20-day EMA, at 0.6605, has been pierced. The 50-day average is at 0.6571. The area between the two averages represents a key short-term support zone. A continuation higher would expose 0.6707, the Sep 17 high and bull trigger. Clearance of this level would strengthen the bullish condition. 

USDCAD TECHS: Pierces Support

• RES 4: 1.4051 High Nov 28  
• RES 3: 1.3913 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 1.3854 20-day EMA  
• RES 1: 1.3806 High Dec 19  
• PRICE: 1.3730 @ 08:15 GMT Dec 23
• SUP 1: 1.3728 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 1.3682 76.4% retracement of the Jun 16 - Nov 6 bull cycle
• SUP 3: 1.3637 Low Jul 25
• SUP 4: 1.3576 Low Jul 23  

A bear theme in USDCAD remains intact. The pair has pierced support at 1.3730, the Sep 17 low and a short-term bear trigger. A clear break of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend. Scope is seen for an extension towards 1.3727 next, the Sep 17 low. Initial firm resistance to watch is 1.3854, the 20-day EMA. Short-term gains would be considered corrective and would allow an oversold condition to unwind.    

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (H6) Bear Trend Intact                      

• RES 4: 128.75 High Dec 3 and a key resistance   
• RES 3: 128.40 Low Dec 2    
• RES 2: 127.91 20-day EMA 
• RES 1: 127.52 High Dec 19            
• PRICE: 127.17 @ 05:44 GMT Dec 23 
• SUP 1: 126.75 Low Dec 22          
• SUP 2: 126.53 Low Mar 11 (cont.) and a key support  
• SUP 3: 126.35 3.236 projection of the Nov 12 - 20 - 26 price swing
• SUP 4: 126.20 3.382 projection of the Nov 12 - 20 - 26 price swing

Bund futures remain in a clear downtrend and Monday’s fresh cycle low reinforces current conditions. The move lower confirms a resumption of the downtrend and maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Sights are on 126.53 next, the Mar 11 low (cont.). Initial firm resistance is seen at 127.91, the 20-day EMA. A break of this average would signal the start of a corrective bounce.                

BOBL TECHS: (H6) Bearish Trend Condition        

• RES 4: 116.770 High Dec 3 and key resistance       
• RES 3: 116.580 High Dec 5  
• RES 2: 116.281 20-day EMA   
• RES 1: 116.120 High Dec 19   
• PRICE: 115.970 @ 05:43 GMT Dec 23 
• SUP 1: 115.720 Low Dec 10 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 2: 115.660.4.000 proj of the Nov 6 - 14 - 26 price swing  
• SUP 3: 115.600 Round number support
• SUP 4: 115.573 4.236 proj of the Nov 6 - 14 - 26 price swing

The trend set-up in Bobl futures is unchanged, the condition remains bearish following an impulsive sell-off early December. Recent short-term gains are considered corrective. Sights are on 115.660 next, a Fibonacci projection. Note that the trend remains oversold, a stronger recovery would allow this set-up to unwind. Key resistance is seen at 116.770, the Dec 3 high. Initial firm resistance to watch is at the 20-day EMA, at 116.281.       

SCHATZ TECHS: (H6) Gains Considered Corrective           

• RES 4: 106.945 High Dec 3 and a key resistance 
• RES 3: 106.900 High Dec 5  
• RES 2: 106.835 High Dec 8   
• RES 1: 106.805 20-day EMA 
• PRICE: 106.740 @ 06:14 GMT Dec 23
• SUP 1: 106.675/ 630 Low Dec 12 / 10 and the bear trigger  
• SUP 2: 106.621 2.236 proj of the Nov 26 - Dec 2 - 3 minor price swing
• SUP 3: 106.600 2.382 proj of the Nov 26 - Dec 2 - 3 minor price swing
• SUP 4: 106.583 2.500 proj of the Nov 26 - Dec 2 - 3 minor price swing 

A bear theme in Schatz futures remains intact following a recent impulsive sell-off and short-term gains are considered corrective. Note that on the continuation chart, moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Sights are on 106.621 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance is seen at 106.805, the 20-day EMA. A corrective bounce would allow an oversold trend condition to unwind.              

GILT TECHS: (H6) Trading Above Support For Now                     

• RES 4: 92.31 High Nov 12
• RES 3: 92.00 Round number resistance         
• RES 2: 91.78/93 High Dec 17 / High Nov 27
• RES 1: 91.17 20-day EMA      
• PRICE: 90.70 @ Close Dec 22
• SUP 1: 90.50 Low Dec 16       
• SUP 2: 90.28 Low Nov 21  
• SUP 3: 90.00 Round number support    
• SUP 4: 89.86 Low Nov 19 and the bear trigger     

Recent price action in Gilt futures highlights 90.50, the Dec 16 low, and 91.93, the Nov 27 high, as two important short-term directional triggers. A clear breach of support at 90.50 would signal scope for a deeper retracement towards 89.86, the Nov 19 low and a bear trigger. For bulls, a stronger resumption of gains and a breach of 91.93, would instead signal scope for a climb towards resistance at 92.55, the Nov 11 high.               

BTP TECHS: (H6) Outlook Remains Bearish       

• RES 4: 121.33 High Oct 21 and a key resistance area 
• RES 3: 121.37 High Nov 13 
• RES 2: 121.24 High Nov 26 
• RES 1: 120.34/77 High Dec 17 / 3   
• PRICE: 119.53 @ Close Dec 22
• SUP 1: 119.45 Low Dec 22           
• SUP 2: 119.13 Low Dec 10 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 3: 118.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 118.84 2.000 proj of the Nov 13 - 20 - 26 price swing 

Recent gains in BTP futures appear to have been a correction. The contract did trade above initial resistance at 120.17, the Nov 20 low. A resumption of gains would signal scope for an extension towards 120.77, the Dec 3 high. On the downside, attention is on key support at 119.13, the Dec 10 low and a bear trigger. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend.                       

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (H6) Key Resistance Remains Exposed     

• RES 4: 5900.00 Round number resistance      
• RES 3: 5868.01 1.618 proj of the Aug 1 - 22 - Sep 2 price swing (cont)
• RES 2: 5847.00 High Nov 13 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 5822.00 High Dec 12         
• PRICE: 5771.00 @ 06:32 GMT Dec 23
• SUP 1: 5685.07 50-day EMA      
• SUP 2: 5622.00 Low Nov 26 
• SUP 3: 5546.00 Low Nov 25
• SUP 4: 5500.00 Low Nov 21 and a bear trigger       

A bull cycle in EUROSTOXX 50 futures remains intact and the latest pullback appears to have been a correction. The first key support to watch lies at 5685.07, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of the EMA would highlight a potential short-term reversal. This would open 5622.00, the Nov 26 low. For bulls, sights are on key resistance at 5847.00, the Nov 13 high. The price pattern on Dec 18 is a bullish engulfing candle - a reversal signal.  

E-MINI S&P: (H6) Bullish Theme  

• RES 4: 7021.79 0.618 proj Nov 21 - Dec 11 - 18 price swing   
• RES 3: 7014.00 High Oct 30 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 6988.00 High Dec 11
• RES 1: 6936.25 Intraday high    
• PRICE: 6925.00 @ 07:25 GMT Dec 23
• SUP 1: 6835.96/6771.50-day EMA / Low Dec 18
• SUP 2: 6737.71 61.8% retracement of the Nov 21 - Dec 11 rally 
• SUP 3: 6678.58 76.4% retracement of the Nov 21 - Dec 11 rally
• SUP 4: 6583.00 Low Nov 21  

The recent pullback in S&P E-Minis appears to have been a correction. A key short-term support has been defined at 6771.50, the Dec 18 low. A break of this level would signal scope for a deeper retracement of the recent bull phase between Nov 21 - Dec 11. This would open 6737.71, a Fibonacci retracement. For bulls a stronger resumption of gains would refocus attention on key resistance at 7014.00, the Oct 30 high.     

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (G6) Corrective Bounce             

• RES 4: $70.86 - 76.4% retracement of the Jun 23 - Oct 17 bear leg  
• RES 3: $70.33 - High Jul 30
• RES 2: $68.86 - High Sep 26 and a key resistance 
• RES 1: $62.62/65.25 - 50-day EMA / High Oct 24 
• PRICE: $61.94 @ 06:59 GMT Dec 23 
• SUP 1: $58.72 - Low Dec 16   
• SUP 2: $58.11 - Low Apr 9 and a key support
• SUP 3: $87.72 - 1.764 proj of the Jul 30 - Aug 13 - Sep 26 price swing
• SUP 4: $56.22 - 2.000 proj of the Jul 30 - Aug 13 - Sep 26 price swing 

A bearish theme in Brent futures remains present and for now, the latest recovery is considered corrective. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode condition, highlighting a dominant downtrend. A resumption of the bear cycle would open $58.11, the Apr 9 low. On the upside, key short-term resistance to watch is $65.25, the Oct 24 high. First resistance is $62.62, the 50-day EMA.        

WTI TECHS: (G6) Remains Below Resistance        

• RES 4: $70.16 - High Jun 23 and a key medium-term resistance 
• RES 3: $64.97 - High Sep 26
• RES 2: $61.25 - High Oct 24 and a key resistance  
• RES 1: $58.71 - 50-day EMA    
• PRICE: $57.83 @ 07:17 GMT Dec 23
• SUP 1: $54.89 - Low Dec 16
• SUP 2: $54.71 - Low Apr 9 and a key support
• SUP 3: $53.77 - 1.764 proj of the Jul 30 - Aug 13 - Sep 26 price swing
• SUP 4: $52.27 - 2.000 proj of the Jul 30 - Aug 13 - Sep 26 price swing   

The trend condition in WTI futures remains bearish and short-term gains are considered corrective. MA studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. A key support and the bear trigger at $56.11, the Oct 17 low, has been breached. Clearance of this level resumes the downtrend and opens $53.77, a Fibonacci projection. Key short-term resistance to watch is $61.25, the Oct 24 high. First resistance is at $58.71, the 50- day EMA.      

GOLD TECHS: Northbound          

• RES 4: $4578.3 - 1.618 proj of the Oct 28 - Nov 13 - Nov 18 swing
• RES 3: $4536.0 - 1.500 proj of the Oct 28 - Nov 13 - Nov 18 swing 
• RES 2: $4500.0 - Round number resistance 
• RES 1: $4497.7 - Intraday high                    
• PRICE: $4482.9 @ 07:16 GMT Dec 23 
• SUP 1: $4259.9 - 20-day EMA 
• SUP 2: $4170.3 - Low Dec 9 
• SUP 3: $4128.6 - 50-day EMA 
• SUP 4: $3998.1 - Low Nov 18

The trend structure in Gold is unchanged, it remains bullish and another fresh cycle high reinforces current conditions. The break higher confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend. The metal has traded through the psychological $4400.0 handle and this opens $4500.0 next, ahead of $4536.0, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support to watch lies at $4259.9, the 20-day EMA. A pullback would be considered corrective.                        

SILVER TECHS: All-Time High Again    

• RES 4: $71.771 - 2.618 proj of the Oct 28 - Nov 13 - 21 price swing
• RES 3: $70.729 - 2.500 proj of the Oct 28 - Nov 13 - 21 price swing 
• RES 2: $70.000 - Psychological round number
• RES 1: $69.993 - Intraday high   
• PRICE: $69.491 @ 08:03 GMT Dec 23
• SUP 1: $64.493 - Low Dec 19  
• SUP 2: $61.137 - 20-day EMA    
• SUP 3: $55.388 - 50-day EMA 
• SUP 4: $53.345 - Low Nov 28 

Trend signals in Silver remain bullish and another fresh cycle high, today, reinforces bullish conditions. This also maintains the current impulsive nature of the rally. Note that moving average studies are in a bull position and this continues to highlight a dominant medium-term uptrend. Sights are on the psychological $70.00 handle, ahead of $70.729, a Fibonacci projection.  Initial firm support is at $60.305, the 20-day EMA.