MNI Daily Technical Analysis - S&P E-Minis Bull Cycle Extends

Price Signal Summary - Fresh S&P E-Minis Cycle High   

• In the equity space, a bull cycle in S&P E-Minis remains intact and the contract has today resumed its uptrend. Price has traded through the 6700.00 handle and this signals scope for an extension towards 6748.50, a 1.236 projection of the Aug 1 - 15 - 20 price swing. Initial support to watch lies at 6578.36, the 20-day EMA. EUROSTOXX 50 futures recently traded through resistance around the 20-day EMA - a bullish development for now. The move higher undermines a recent bearish theme and signals potential for a climb towards 5525.00, the Aug 22 high and a bull trigger. On the downside, key support has been defined at 5302.00, the Sep 2 low.                                           
• In FX, the trend theme in EURUSD remains bullish and short-term weakness is considered corrective. Resistance at 1.1743, the Aug 22 high, has recently been cleared, reinforcing a bull cycle. Tuesday’s gains resulted in a climb above 1.1829 the Jul 01 high and bull trigger. Clearance of this hurdle confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend and opens 1.1923 next, the 2.00 projection of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - 247 price swing. Support to watch is the 50-day EMA, at 1.1659. The 20-day EMA lies at 1.1720. A bullish theme in GBPUSD remains intact and the move down from Wednesday’s high is considered corrective. A deeper retracement would allow an overbought condition to unwind. Recent gains have resulted in a breach of resistance at 1.3595, the Aug 14 high and a bull trigger. The break strengthens bullish conditions and opens 1.3789, the Jul 1 high and a key resistance. Initial firm support to watch is 1.3492, the 50-day EMA. The 20-day EMA lies at 1.3533. USDJPY traded sharply lower Wednesday before finding support. 146.21, the Aug 14 low, was breached highlighting a potentially stronger bearish threat. Price also pierced 145.80, a trendline drawn from the Apr 22 low. A resumption of weakness would open 145.40, 50% of the Apr - Aug upleg. On the flipside, yesterday is a hammer candle formation - a bullish reversal signal. It signals scope for a recovery. Pivot support is 145.49, Wednesday’s low.                            
• On the commodity front, Gold remains in a clear bull cycle and short-term weakness is for now, considered corrective. A fresh all-time high, once again this week, confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend. The next objective is $3705.2, a 1.382 projection of the May 15 - Jun 16 - 30 price swing. Initial firm support lies at $3558.4, the 20-day EMA. In the oil space, the trend condition in WTI futures is unchanged - a bear cycle remains intact and the latest recovery is considered corrective. The pullback from the Sep 2 high highlights a possible reversal and the end of a corrective phase between Aug 13 - Sep 2. Initial resistance to watch is $66.03, the Sep 2 high. Key short-term resistance has been defined at $69.36, the Jul 30 high. A stronger resumption of weakness would open $57.71, the May 30 low.                    
• In the FI space, Bund futures remain below their latest highs. Recent gains resulted in a break of resistance at 128.87, the Aug 28 high and a short-term bull trigger. The climb undermines a recent bearish theme and highlights a stronger reversal. Scope is seen for an extension towards 129.50, the Aug 5 high. Key support and the bear trigger has been defined at 127.61, the Sep 3 low. The pullback from the Sep 9 high is - for now - considered corrective. A bull cycle in Gilt futures remains intact and the contract is trading closer to its latest highs. A recent rally highlights a stronger corrective cycle. Note that the move higher has allowed an oversold trend condition to unwind. Price has breached initial firm resistance at 90.84, the Aug 28 and 29 high. A continuation higher would open 92.06, the Aug 14 high. On the downside, initial support lies at 90.65, the Sep 5 low. 

Highlighting Key Longer-Term Trends:

MNI Tech Trend Monitor: https://emedia.marketnews.com/marketnewsintl/MNITechTrendMonitor.pdf

We introduce the MNI Tech Trend Monitor - This document highlights a selection of key longer-term trends that we have identified in markets that could be reaching inflection points, trend reversals/extensions or technically significant levels.

Covering:

• UK Gilt 10y Yield
• UK Gilt 30y Yield
• ICE USD Index
• Europe Banking Stock Index (SX7E)

FOREIGN EXCHANGE    

EURUSD TECHS: Bull Cycle Remains Intact

• RES 4: 1.2063 2.236 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - 247 price swing
• RES 3: 1.2000 Round number resistance 
• RES 2: 1.1923 2.00 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - 247 price swing
• RES 1: 1.1919 High Sep 17
• PRICE: 1.1795 @ 06:08 BST Sep 18
• SUP 1: 1.1720/59 20- and 50-day EMA values
• SUP 2: 1.1574 Low Aug 27
• SUP 3: 1.1528 Low Aug 5
• SUP 4: 1.1392 Low Aug 1 and bear trigger.

The trend theme in EURUSD remains bullish and short-term weakness is considered corrective. Resistance at 1.1743, the Aug 22 high, has recently been cleared, reinforcing a bull cycle. Tuesday’s gains resulted in a climb above 1.1829 the Jul 01 high and bull trigger. Clearance of this hurdle confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend and opens 1.1923 next, a Fibonacci projection. Support to watch is the 50-day EMA, at 1.1659.    

GBPUSD TECHS: Unwinding An Overbought Condition  

• RES 4: 1.3893 1.236 proj of the Aug 1 - 14 - Sep 3 price swing     
• RES 3: 1.3789 High Jul 1 and key resistance
• RES 2: 1.3753 High Jul 2
• RES 1: 1.3726 High Sep 17 
• PRICE: 1.3606 @ 06:21 BST Sep 18
• SUP 1: 1.3533 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.3492/3430 50-day EMA / Low Sep 5
• SUP 3: 1.1.3333 Low Sep 3 
• SUP 4: 1.3142 Low Aug 1 and a key support      

A bullish theme in GBPUSD remains intact and the move down from Wednesday’s high is considered corrective. A deeper retracement would allow an overbought condition to unwind. Recent gains have resulted in a breach of resistance at 1.3595, the Aug 14 high and a bull trigger. The break strengthens bullish conditions and opens 1.3789, the Jul 1 high and a key resistance. Initial firm support to watch is 1.3492, the 50-day EMA.         

EURGBP TECHS: Support Remains Intact        

• RES 4: 0.8769 High Jul 28 and the bull trigger   
• RES 3: 0.8744 High Aug 7 
• RES 2: 0.8728 76.4% retracement of the Jul 28 - Aug 14 bear leg
• RES 1: 0.8713 High Sep 2  
• PRICE: 0.8670 @ 06:32 BST Sep 18
• SUP 1: 0.8641/8597 50-day EMA / Low Aug 14 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 0.8562 50.0% retracement May 29 - Jul 28 upleg 
• SUP 3: 0.8540 Low Jun 30 
• SUP 4: 0.8514 61.8% retracement May 29 - Jul 28 upleg

The recent pullback in EURGBP appears corrective and Tuesday’s rally signals the end of the corrective phase. Support to watch lies at 0.8597, the Aug 14 low. Clearance of this level would cancel a bull theme and reinstate a recent bearish threat. For bulls, a stronger resumption of gains would open 0.8744, the Aug 7 high. Key resistance and the bull trigger is at 0.8769, the Jul 28 high. First support is 0.8641, the 50-day EMA. 

USDJPY TECHS: Hammer Candle Reversal Pattern       

• RES 4: 151.62 61.8% retracement of the Jan 10 - Apr 22 bear leg
• RES 3: 150.92 High Aug 1 and a key resistance 
• RES 2: 149.64 76.4% retracement of the Aug 1 - Sep 17 bear leg 
• RES 1: 148.17/149.14 High Sep 11 / High Sep 3  
• PRICE: 147.39 @ 06:57 BST Sep 18
• SUP 1: 145.49 Low Sep 17 and a pivot support 
• SUP 2: 145.40 50% retracement of the Apr - Aug upleg
• SUP 3: 144.10 61.8% retracement of the Apr - Aug upleg
• SUP 4: 143.45 Low Jul 3 

USDJPY traded sharply lower Wednesday before finding support. 146.21, the Aug 14 low, was breached highlighting a potentially stronger bearish threat. Price also pierced 145.80, a trendline drawn from the Apr 22 low. A resumption of weakness would open 145.40, a Fibonacci retracement. On the flipside, yesterday is a hammer candle formation - a bullish reversal signal. It signals scope for a recovery. Pivot support is 145.49, Wednesday’s low.      

EURJPY TECHS: Resumes Its Uptrend    

• RES 4: 177.08 2.000 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - Apr 7 price swing 
• RES 3: 175.43 High Jul 11 ‘24 and a key medium-term resistance
• RES 2: 174.86 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - Apr 7 price swing
• RES 1: 174.47 Intraday high 
• PRICE: 174.31 @ 10:34 BST Sep 18
• SUP 1: 172.67/171.56 20- and 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 169.73/45 Low Jul 31 / 23.6% of the Feb 28 - Jul 28 bull leg
• SUP 3: 168.46 Low Jul 1  
• SUP 4: 167.46 Low Jun 23   

The trend set-up in EURJPY remains bullish and today’s gains reinforce current conditions. The cross has breached resistance at 173.97, the Jul 28 high and a bull trigger. This confirms a resumption of the medium-term uptrend and maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on 174.86, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, first support to watch lies at 172.76, the 20-day EMA.

AUDUSD TECHS: Monitoring Support   

• RES 4: 0.6793 1.500 proj of the Jun 23 - Jul 24 - Aug 21 price swing
• RES 3: 0.6763 1.382 proj of the Jun 23 - Jul 24 - Aug 21 price swing
• RES 2: 0.6726 1.236 proj of the Jun 23 - Jul 24 - Aug 21 price swing
• RES 1: 0.6707 High Sep 17
• PRICE: 0.6620 @ 07:58 BST Sep 18
• SUP 1: 0.6586/6542 20- and 50-day EMA values
• SUP 2: 0.6463/6415 Low Aug 27 / Low Aug 21 / 22 and a bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.6373 Low Jun 23 
• SUP 4: 0.6354 38.2% retracement of the Apr 9 - Jul 24 upleg

AUDUSD bulls remain in the driver’s seat and the current pullback is considered corrective. The latest rally plus the breach of 0.6625, the Jul 24 high and bull trigger, confirm a resumption of the uptrend. The climb opens the 0.6700 handle next. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend. Key support to watch is 0.6415, the Aug 21 / 22 low. Initial firm support to monitor lies at 0.6586, the 20-day EMA.   

USDCAD TECHS: Support Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 1.4019 38.2% retracement of the Feb 3 - Jun 16 bear leg 
• RES 3: 1.3925 High Aug 22 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 1.3890 High Sep 11
• RES 1: 1.3803 20-day EMA 
• PRICE: 1.3793 @ 08:08 BST Sep 18
• SUP 1: 1.3727 Low Aug 29 and a bear trigger  
• SUP 2: 1.3709 61.8% retracement of the Jul 23 - Aug 22 bull cycle
• SUP 3: 1.3658 76.4% retracement of the Jul 23 - Aug 22 bull cycle 
• SUP 4: 1.3637 Low Jul 25  

A sharp sell-off in USDCAD earlier this week resulted in a break of the 20-and-50-day EMAs. This undermines a recent bullish theme and exposes key short-term support at 1.3727, the Aug 27 low. A clear break of this level would strengthen a bearish threat and signal scope for a deeper retracement. For bulls, resistance levels to watch are; 1.3890, the Sep 11 high, and 1.3925, the Aug 22 high and bull trigger.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (Z5) Bullish Outlook     

• RES 4: 130.27 High Jun 20  
• RES 3: 130.05 76.4% retracement of the Jun 13 - Sep 3 bear cycle    
• RES 2: 129.66 High Jul 22 
• RES 1: 129.13/50 High Sep 17 / High Aug 5 and a key resistance  
• PRICE: 128.84 @ 05:50 BST Sep 18
• SUP 1: 128.49/25 Low Sep 16 / 4      
• SUP 2: 127.61 Low Sep 3 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 127.46 1.00 proj of the Aug 14 - 15 - 28 price swing  
• SUP 4: 127.13 1.236 proj of the Aug 14 - 15 - 28 price swing  

Bund futures remain below their latest highs. Recent gains  resulted in a break of resistance at 128.87, the Aug 28 high and a short-term bull trigger. The climb undermines a recent bearish theme and highlights a stronger reversal. Scope is seen for an extension towards 129.50, the Aug 5 high. Key support and the bear trigger has been defined at 127.61, the Sep 3 low. The pullback from the Sep 9 high is - for now - considered corrective.        

BOBL TECHS: (Z5) Support Holds For Now   

• RES 4: 118.635 1.500 proj of the Aug 25 - 28 - Sep 2 price swing     
• RES 3: 118.561 1.382 proj of the Aug 25 - 28 - Sep 2 price swing  
• RES 2: 118.469 1.236 proj of the Aug 25 - 28 - Sep 2 price swing 
• RES 1: 118.090/400 High Sep 18 / High Sep 8 and 10 
• PRICE: 117.930 @ 06:10 BST Sep 18
• SUP 1: 117.760 Low Sep 4    
• SUP 2: 117.690 Low Sep 2    
• SUP 3: 117.630 Low Aug 25  and a key short-term support   
• SUP 4: 117.481 123.6% retracement projection of Aug 25 - 28 rally  

Bobl futures are trading below their recent highs. The contract recently breached resistance at 118.260, the Aug 28 high. A break of this level does undermine a recent bearish theme and a resumption of gains would signal scope for a recovery towards 118.469, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, the latest pullback has exposed support at 117.690, the Sep 2 low. Clearance of this level would reinstate a bearish theme.    

SCHATZ TECHS: (Z5) Bearish Trend Structure    

• RES 4: 107.240 High Aug 4 
• RES 3: 107.225 High Aug 27 and the bull trigger 
• RES 2: 107.145/190 High Sep 11 / High Sep 5 and 8
• RES 1: 107.050 Low Aug 25 and Sep 2 and a recent breakout level 
• PRICE: 107.020 @ 06:11 BST Sep 18
• SUP 1: 106.965 Low Sep 12   
• SUP 2: 106.948 1.382 proj of the the Aug 27 - Sep 2 - 8 price swing  
• SUP 3: 106.928 1.500 proj of the the Aug 27 - Sep 2 - 8 price swing
• SUP 4: 106.900 Round number support

The trend structure in Schatz futures is unchanged, it remains bearish and last week’s sell-off confirmed a resumption of the downtrend. The contract has breached support at 107.050, the Aug 25 and Sep 2 low plus a bear trigger. This maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Scope is seen for an extension towards 106.948 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial resistance is at 107.050, Aug 25 and Sep 2 low.       

GILT TECHS: (Z5) Bull Cycle Still In Play    

• RES 4: 92.30 High Aug 7
• RES 3: 92.06 High Aug 14      
• RES 2: 92.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 91.82 High Sep 11
• PRICE: 91.60 @ Close Sep 17
• SUP 1: 90.65 Low Sep 2
• SUP 2: 90.31/89.36 Low Sep 4 / 3
• SUP 3: 89.22 1.618 proj of the Aug 21 - 27 - 28 price swing 
• SUP 4: 89.00 Round number support   

A bull cycle in Gilt futures remains intact and the contract is trading closer to its latest highs. A recent rally highlights a stronger corrective cycle and the contract is holding on to its gains. Note that the move higher has allowed an oversold trend condition to unwind. Price has breached initial firm resistance at 90.84, the Aug 28 and 29 high. A continuation higher would open 92.06, the Aug 14 high. On the downside, initial support lies at 90.65, the Sep 5 low.    

BTP TECHS: (Z5) Resistance Remains Exposed       

• RES 4: 122.56 0.764 proj of the Apr 9 - May 8 - 14 price swing (cont)
• RES 3: 121.88 0.618 proj of the Apr 9 - May 8 - 14 price swing (cont) 
• RES 2: 121.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 120.74 High Aug 5 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 120.34 @ Close Sep 17
• SUP 1: 119.06/118.36 Low Sep 4 / 3         
• SUP 2: 118.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 117.70 2.236 proj of the Aug 5 - 12 - 14 price swing  
• SUP 4: 117.36 2.500 proj of the Aug 5 - 12 - 14 price swing 

The primary trend condition in BTP futures is unchanged, it remains bullish. The strong rally that started Sep 3 reinforces this theme and signals the end of the recent corrective pullback between Aug 5 - Sep 3. Key resistance and the bull trigger is 120.74, the Aug 5 high. A break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend. Key support has been defined at 118.36, the Sep 3 low. 

US‌‌ ‌‌10YR‌‌ ‌‌FUTURE‌‌ ‌‌TECHS:‌‌ (Z5) Corrective Pullback 

• RES 4: 114-10   High Apr 7 (cont.)
• RES 3: 114-10   1.0% 10-dma envelope / High Apr 7 (cont.)
• RES 2: 114-00   Round number resistance 
• RES 1: 113-29   High Sep 11
• PRICE:‌‌ 113-07+ @ 19:43 BST Sep 17
• SUP 1: 112-28   20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 112-05+ 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 111-13+ Low Aug 18 and a key support  
• SUP 4: 110-25   Low Aug 1 

Treasury futures are trading lower today - a corrective pullback and a bull-mode condition remains intact. Note that the recent impulsive rally signalled an acceleration of the uptrend. Also, moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. This suggests scope for an extension through 114-00 next and a test of 114-10, the Apr 7 high (cont). Initial firm support to watch is 112-28, the 20-day EMA.                         

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (Z5) Pullback Considered Corrective   

• RES 4: 5600.00 Round number resistance 
• RES 3: 5525.00 High Aug 22 and a bull trigger
• RES 2: 5472.37 76.4% retracement of the Aug 22 - Sep 2 low  
• RES 1: 5463.00 High Sep 16    
• PRICE: 5402.00 @ 07:50 BST Sep 18
• SUP 1: 5366.00 Low Sep 17
• SUP 2: 5302.00 Low Sep 2 and a key short-term support  
• SUP 3: 5262.18 76.4% retracement of the Aug 1 - 22 bull leg   
• SUP 4: 5181.00 Low Aug 1 and key support  

Eurostoxx 50 futures recently traded through resistance around the 20-day EMA - a bullish development for now. The move higher undermines a recent bearish theme and signals potential for a climb towards 5525.00, the Aug 22 high and a bull trigger. On the downside, key support has been defined at 5302.00, the Sep 2 low. Clearance of this level is required to reinstate a bearish theme. For now, Tuesday’s move down appears corrective.      

 E-MINI S&P: (Z5) Northbound   

• RES 4: 6787.63 1.382 proj of the Aug 1 - 15 - 20 price swing  
• RES 3: 6750.50 2.000 proj of the Aug 20 - 28 - Sep 2 price swing 
• RES 2: 6748.50 1.236 proj of the Aug 1 - 15 - 20 price swing    
• RES 1: 6719.75 Intraday high 
• PRICE: 6718.50 @ 10:36 BST Sep 18
• SUP 1: 6578.36 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 6536.50 Low Sep 8 
• SUP 3: 6468.72 50-day EMA 
• SUP 4: 6417.25 Low Aug 12 

A bull cycle in S&P E-Minis remains intact and the contract has today resumed its uptrend. Price has traded through the 6700.00 handle and this signals scope for an extension towards 6748.50, a Fibonacci projection point. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend and positive market sentiment. Initial support to watch lies at 6578.36, the 20-day EMA.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (X5) Trading Below Resistance      

• RES 4: $79.16 - 2.618 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 3: $77.28 - 2.382 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 2: $76.39 - High Jun 23 and a bull trigger 
• RES 1: $69.53/71.93 - High Sep 2 / High Jul 30 and a key resistance 
• PRICE: $67.64 @ 07:10 BST Sep 18
• SUP 1: $64.50 - Low Jun 30 and a key short-term support
• SUP 2: $60.82 - Low May 30
• SUP 3: $58.37 - Low May 5
• SUP 4: $57.81 - Low Apr 9 and a key support   

Brent futures remain above their recent lows. Short-term gains are for now, considered corrective and a bear cycle remains intact. Sights are on $64.50, the Jun 30 low, where a clear break would confirm a continuation of the bear leg. This would open $60.82, the May 30 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at $71.93, the Jul 30 high. Clearance of this level is required to cancel a bear theme.  

WTI TECHS: (V5) Still Looking For Weakness  

• RES 4: $77.85 - 2.794 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 3: $75.65 - 2.500 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 2: $74.25 - High Jun 23 and a bull trigger 
• RES 1: $66.03/69.36 - High Sep2 / High Jul 30 and key resistance   
• PRICE: $63.81 @ 07:18 BST Sep 18
• SUP 1: $61.29 - Low Aug 13 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 2: $57.71 - Low May 30
• SUP 3: $54.80 - Low May 5
• SUP 4: $54.03 - Low Apr 9 and a key support

The trend condition in WTI futures is unchanged - a bear cycle remains intact and the latest recovery is considered corrective. The pullback from the Sep 2 high highlights a possible reversal and the end of a corrective phase between Aug 13 - Sep 2. Initial resistance to watch is $66.03, the Sep 2 high. Key short-term resistance has been defined at $69.36, the Jul 30 high. A stronger resumption of weakness would open $57.71, the May 30 low. 

GOLD TECHS: Trend Structure Remains Bullish     

• RES 4: $3783.2 - 1.618 proj of the Dec 30 ’24 - Apr 3 - 7 price swing 
• RES 3: $3744.2 - 1.500 proj of the May 15 - Jun 16 - 30 price swing
• RES 2: $3705.2 - 1.382 proj of the May 15 - Jun 16 - 30 price swing
• RES 1: $3703.1 - High Sep 16             
• PRICE: $3635.5 @ 07:24 BST Sep 18
• SUP 1: $3614.0 - Low Sep 11  
• SUP 2: $3558.4 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: $3457.5 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: $3311.6 - Low Aug 20  

Gold remains in a clear bull cycle and short-term weakness is for now, considered corrective. A fresh all-time high, once again this week, confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend and an extension of the sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The next objective is $3705.2, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support lies at $3558.4, the 20-day EMA. Note that MA studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend.                

SILVER TECHS: MA Studies Highlight A Bull Cycle

• RES 4: $43.272 - 2.500 proj of the Jul 31 - Aug 14 - 20 price swing
• RES 3: $43.000 - Round number resistance
• RES 2: $42.974 - 2.382 proj of the Jul 31 - Aug 14 - 20 price swing
• RES 1: $42.972 - High Sep 16       
• PRICE: $41.520 @ 08:13 BST Sep 18
• SUP 1: $40.734 - 20-day EMA 
• SUP 2: $39.146 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $36.965 - Low Aug 20  
• SUP 4: $36.216 - Low Jul 31 and a key support

Trend signals in Silver remain bullish and the latest pullback appears corrective. The metal traded higher last Friday, delivering a fresh cycle high. The extension earlier this week confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. MA studies are in a bull-mode position, reinforcing current conditions. Sights are on $42.974 next, a Fibonacci projection. Support to watch is $40.734, the 20-day EMA.