MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Risk Surges, Pressuring JPY

Price Signal Summary – Risk Surges, Tipping USDJPY Through Resistance

• The bullish trend condition in S&P E-Minis remains intact and today’s strong start to this week’s session reinforces bullish conditions. The contract has pierced an important resistance at 5837.25, the Mar 25 high and a bull trigger. Strong gains in Eurostoxx 50 futures contract today reinforce current bullish conditions. The contract is extending the recent breach of 5263.01, 76.4% of the Mar 3 - Apr 7 bear leg. 
• The primary trend condition in USDJPY is bearish and gains since Apr 22 appear corrective. However, resistance at the 50-day EMA, at 146.19. Has this morning been cleared. The clear break highlights a possible stronger reversal. GBPUSD traded lower last week and the pair remains closer to its recent lows. 1.3254, the 20-day EMA, has been pierced. This signals scope for a deeper correction. Note too that a minor head and shoulders formation on the daily chart reinforces the likelihood of a corrective pullback. USDCAD continues to trade above its recent lows. Despite the recovery, the trend condition remains bearish and short-term gains are considered corrective. A fresh cycle low last Tuesday reinforces the bearish theme.              
• The latest pullback in Gold appears corrective. The primary trend condition is bullish and a resumption of the uptrend would signal scope for a climb towards the bull trigger at $3500.1, the Apr 22 high. A downtrend in WTI futures remains intact and short-term gains are considered corrective. The corrective cycle remains in play for now and price has traded through the 20-day EMA. 
• A bull cycle in Bund futures remains intact and short-term weakness is considered corrective. However, the contract maintains a softer tone and has traded through support at the 50-day EMA, at 130.61. The latest pullback in Gilt futures appears corrective. However, the contract has traded through support at the 50-day EMA, at 92.52. The breach signals scope for a deeper retracement and attention turns to 91.73, the Apr 17 low.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE    

EURUSD TECHS: Corrective Phase Remains In Play               

• RES 4: 1.1625 1.500 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - 27 price swing
• RES 3: 1.1608 High Nov 9 2021
• RES 2: 1.1440/1573 High Apr 23 / 21 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.1273/1381 20-day EMA / High May 2 - 6  
• PRICE: 1.1159 @ 08:14 BST May 12
• SUP 1: 1.1144 High Apr 3
• SUP 2: 1.1075 50-day EMA and a pivot level  
• SUP 3: 1.1026 38.2% retracement of the Feb 3 - Apr 21 bull cycle      
• SUP 4: 1.0943 Low Apr 10  

EURUSD maintains a softer short-term tone and the pair is trading lower today. Recent weakness appears corrective and key trend signals remain bullish. However, the pair has traded through the 20-day EMA and this exposes the next important support at 1.1082, the 50-day EMA. On the upside, initial resistance to watch is 1.1381, the May 2 - 6 high. Clearance of this level would signal the end of the correction. 

GBPUSD TECHS: Has Pierced The 20-Day EMA 

• RES 4: 1.3605 1.236 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - 7 price swing 
• RES 3: 1.3550 High Feb 24 ‘22 
• RES 2: 1.3510 1.236 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - 7 price swing 
• RES 1: 1.3402/3444 High May 6 / High Apr 28 / 29 and the bull trigger  
• PRICE: 1.3282 @ 06:24 BST May 12
• SUP 1: 1.3212 Low May 9   
• SUP 2: 1.3164 Low Apr 15 
• SUP 3: 1.3083 50-day EMA 
• SUP 4: 1.2968 Low Apr 11 

GBPUSD traded lower last week and the pair remains closer to its recent lows. 1.3254, the 20-day EMA, has been pierced. This signals scope for a deeper correction. Note too that a minor head and shoulders formation on the daily chart reinforces the likelihood of a corrective pullback. Key support to watch is 1.3083, the 50-day EMA. The bull trigger has been defined at 1.3444, the Apr 28 / 29 high. A break would resume the uptrend. 

EURGBP TECHS: Bearish Extension

• RES 4: 0.8781 2.236 proj of the Mar 3 - 11 - 28 price swing     
• RES 3: 0.8768 High Nov 20 ‘23
• RES 2: 0.8624/0.8738 High Apr 21/ High Apr 11 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 0.8541/8557 High May 2 / High Apr 28 
• PRICE: 0.8449 @ 06:42 BST May 12
• SUP 1: 0.8433 Intraday low   
• SUP 2: 0.8415 76.4% retracement of the Mar 28 - Apr 11 rally
• SUP 3: 0.8400 Round number support
• SUP 4: 0.8316 Low Mar 28 and a key support  

EURGBP has traded  to a fresh, short-term cycle low, today. This strengthens the current bearish theme. Note too that the cross has cleared a support at 0.8470, the 50-day EMA, signalling scope for a continuation lower. Sights are on 0.8415 next, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, key near-term resistance is seen at 0.8541, the May 2 high. A break of this level is required to signal a potential reversal.     

USDJPY TECHS: Clears The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 150.49 High Apr 2   
• RES 3: 149.28 High Apr 3 
• RES 2: 148.54 76.4% retracement of the Mar 28 - Apr 22 bear leg
• RES 1: 147.87 High Apr 10
• PRICE: 147.29 @ 08:24 BST May 12
• SUP 1: 144.26 20-day EMA   
• SUP 2: 142.36 Low May 6 
• SUP 3: 141.97 Low Apr 29  
• SUP 4: 139.89 Low Apr 22 and a bear trigger

The primary trend condition in USDJPY is bearish and gains since Apr 22 appear corrective. However, resistance at the 50-day EMA, at 146.19. Has this morning been cleared. The clear break highlights a possible stronger reversal and opens 147.87 next, the Apr 10 high. For bears, a reversal lower would expose 142.36, the May 6 low. Clearance of this level is required to signal the end of the correction.    

EURJPY TECHS: Key Resistance Remains Exposed    

• RES 4: 166.14 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 165.43 High Nov 8        
• RES 2: 164.90 High Dec 30 ‘24 and a key medium-term resistance   
• RES 1: 164.63 High Mar 18 and the bull trigger 
• PRICE: 163.91 @ 07:54 GMT May 12
• SUP 1: 161.88/60 50-day EMA / Low May 6     
• SUP 2: 160.99 Low Apr 22
• SUP 3: 159.48 Low Apr 9   
• SUP 4: 158.56 61.8% retracement of the Feb 28 - May 2 bull leg   

A bullish theme in EURJPY remains intact. A print earlier this month above key resistance at 164.19, the Mar 18 high, is a positive development for bulls. A clear break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the upleg that started Feb 28, and open 164.90, the Dec 30 ‘24 high. First key support to watch is 161.88, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of it would undermine the bullish theme. 

AUDUSD TECHS: Support Remains Intact  

• RES 4: 0.5682 High Nov 12 ‘24  
• RES 3: 0.6550 61.8% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Apr 9 bear leg
• RES 2: 0.6528 High Nov 29 ‘24
• RES 1: 0.6515 High May 7 
• PRICE: 0.6422 @ 15:58 BST May 9
• SUP 1: 0.6371/6339 Intraday low / 50-day EMA   
• SUP 2: 0.6275 Low Apr 14    
• SUP 3: 0.6181 Low Apr 11
• SUP 4: 0.6116 Low Apr 10  

AUDUSD continues to trade below last Wednesday’s high. The trend condition is bullish and the latest move down is considered corrective. The recent breach of 0.6450, the Apr 29 high, confirmed a resumption of the uptrend. Note that moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting an uptrend. A resumption of the trend would open 0.6528, the Nov 29 ‘24 high. Key support to monitor is 0.6342, the 50-day EMA. 

USDCAD TECHS: Continues To Trade Above Its Recent Lows

• RES 4: 1.4296 High Apr 7
• RES 3: 1.4111 High Apr 4 
• RES 2: 1.4037 50-day EMA 
• RES 1: 1.3945 High May 9
• PRICE: 1.3935 @ 08:08 BST May 12
• SUP 1: 1.3814/3751 Low May 8 / 6 and the bear trigger  
• SUP 2: 1.3744 76.4% retracement of Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bull run
• SUP 3: 1.3696 Low Oct 10 2024
• SUP 4: 1.3643 Low Oct 9 ‘24 

USDCAD continues to trade above its recent lows. Despite the recovery, the trend condition remains bearish and short-term gains are considered corrective. A fresh cycle low last Tuesday reinforces the bearish theme. Potential is seen for a move towards 1.3744, a Fibonacci retracement. Note that moving average studies are in a bear mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Key resistance is seen at 1.4037, the 50-day EMA.  

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M5) Corrective Pullback Extends                        

• RES 4: 133.00 round number resistance                
• RES 3: 132.56 High Feb 28 and a key resistance     
• RES 2: 131.72/132.03 High May 7 / High Apr 7 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 130.96 20-day EMA                    
• PRICE: 130.12 @ 08:32 BST May 12
• SUP 1: 129.92 Low Apr 11 and intraday low           
• SUP 2: 129.02 Low Apr 10            
• SUP 3: 128.60 Low Apr 9 and a key support   
• SUP 4: 128.47 Low Mar 28  

A bull cycle in Bund futures remains intact and short-term weakness is considered corrective. However, the contract maintains a softer tone and has traded through support at the 50-day EMA, at 130.61. This signals scope for a deeper retracement exposing 129.92, the Apr 11 low. A reversal higher would highlight the end of the corrective phase. Attention would turn to key resistance and the bull trigger, at 132.03, the Apr 7 high.                                          

BOBL TECHS: (M5) Approaching The 50-Day EMA               

• RES 4: 120.20 High Dec 12 ‘24 (cont)           
• RES 3: 120.000 Psychological round number          
• RES 2: 119.960 High Apr 7 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 119.600/780 High May 7 / High Apr 22                                     
• PRICE: 118.810 @ 06:01 BST May 12 
• SUP 1: 118.737 50-day EMA      
• SUP 2: 118.543 38.2% retracement of the Mar 6 - Apr 7 bull run   
• SUP 3: 118.105 50.0% retracement of the Mar 6 - Apr 7 bull run  
• SUP 4: 117.680 Low Apr 9 and a key support      

A bull cycle in Bobl futures remains intact, however, for now a corrective phase remains in play and the contract is trading lower today. Support at the 20-day EMA has been breached and attention turns to the next key support at 118.737, the 50-day EMA. A break of this average would signal scope for a deeper retracement. On the upside, resistance to watch is 119.600, the May 7 high. Clearance of this level would signal the end of the correction.                    

SCHATZ TECHS: (M5) Starts The Week On  A Bearish Note                                  

• RES 4: 107.812 0.618 proj of the Mar 6 - Apr 7 - 9 price swing     
• RES 3: 107.775 High Apr 7 and the bull trigger   
• RES 2: 107.600/735 High Apr 30 / 22 
• RES 1: 107.423 High May 9                  
• PRICE: 107.290 @ 06:16 BST May 12
• SUP 1: 107.247 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 107.125 Low Apr 10      
• SUP 3: 107.090 50.0% retracement of the Mar 6 - Apr 7 bull cycle        
• SUP 4: 106.965 Low Apr p and a key support      

The trend condition in Schatz futures remains bullish and recent weakness appears corrective. However, for now, the correction remains intact and the contract is trading lower today as the bear cycle extends. Attention turns to the next key support at 107.247, the 50-day EMA. Clearance of this level would signal scope for a continuation lower. Initial resistance to watch is 107.550, the May 7 high.                                                         

GILT TECHS: (M5) Pullback Considered Corrective                   

• RES 4: 94.50 High Apr 7 and key resistance  
• RES 3: 94.00 Round number resistance      
• RES 2: 93.59/93 High May 8 / 2
• RES 1: 92.76 20-day EMA                           
• PRICE: 92.47 @ Close May 12
• SUP 1: 92.07 Low May 9                                        
• SUP 2: 91.73/91.43 Low Apr 17 / 15 
• SUP 3: 90.47/89.99 Low Apr 11 / 9     
• SUP 4: 89.68 Low Jan 15 (cont) 

The latest pullback in Gilt futures appears corrective. However, the contract has traded through support at the 50-day EMA, at 92.52. The breach signals scope for a deeper retracement and attention turns to 91.73, the Apr 17 low. On the upside, a reversal higher would signal the end of the corrective phase and open 94.50, the Apr 7 high and key resistance. Initial firm resistance to monitor is 93.93, the May 2 high.                              

BTP TECHS: (M5) Structure Remains Bullish                                    

• RES 4: 121.93 76.4% of the Dec 5 ‘24 - Mar 14 bear leg (cont)       
• RES 3: 121.43 1.618 proj of the Mar 14 - Apr 4 - 9 price swing    
• RES 2: 121.00 High Feb 7 (cont) and a key resistance  
• RES 1: 120.72 High May 8               
• PRICE: 120.07 @ Close May 9 
• SUP 1: 119.63 20-day EMA       
• SUP 2: 118.09 Low Apr 14       
• SUP 3: 117.28 Low Apr 10 
• SUP 4: 116.06 Low Apr 9    

A bull cycle in BTP futures remains intact and last week’s fresh short-term cycle high reinforces current conditions. The contract has pierced resistance at 120.57, the Apr 24 high. This highlights a resumption of the uptrend and note too that 120.65, a 1.382 projection of the Mar 14 - Apr 4 - 9 price swing, has also been pierced. A continuation higher would open 121.00, the Feb 7 high (cont). Firm support to watch lies at 119.59, the 20-day EMA.                

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M5) Rally Strengthens The Bullish Condition               

• RES 4: 5565.23 1.618 proj of the Apr 7 - 9 - 10 price swing   
• RES 3: 5516.00 High Mar 3 and the key bull trigger
• RES 2: 5471.00 High Mar 19 / 20
• RES 1: 5440.00 High Mar 25 / 26
• PRICE: 5406.00 @ 08:29 BST May 12 
• SUP 1: 5127.08 20-day EMA                      
• SUP 2: 5055.00 Low Apr 30
• SUP 3: 4959.00/4812.00 Low Apr 23 / 16 and a key support        
• SUP 4: 4664.00 Low Apr 10   

Strong gains in Eurostoxx 50 futures contract today reinforce current bullish conditions. The contract is extending the recent breach of 5263.01, 76.4% of the Mar 3 - Apr 7 bear leg. The continuation higher signals scope for a climb towards 5516.00, the Mar 3 high and the key bull trigger. Initial support to watch lies at 5127.08, the 20-day EMA. Clearance of this level would signal a possible reversal.               

E-MINI S&P: (M5) Northbound                 

• RES 4:6000.00 Round number resistance   
• RES 3: 5938.25 High Mar 4  
• RES 2: 5896.25 76.4% retracement of the Feb 19 - Apr 7 bear leg       
• RES 1: 5853.75 Intraday high                                
• PRICE: 5845.50 @ 07:26 BST May 12 
• SUP 1: 5628.71/ 5571.80 50- and 20-day EMA values                        
• SUP 2: 5455.50 Low Apr 30 
• SUP 3: 5355.25 Low Apr 24
• SUP 4: 5127.25 Low Apr 21 and a key support 

The bullish trend condition in S&P E-Minis remains intact and today’s strong start to this week’s session reinforces bullish conditions. The contract has pierced an important resistance at 5837.25, the Mar 25 high and a bull trigger. This strengthens the current bullish theme, paving the way for a continuation near-term. Sights are on 5896.25, a Fibonacci retracement.Initial firm support to watch lies at 5628.71, the 50-day EMA.     

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (N5) Trading Higher 

• RES 4: $78.10 - High Jan 15  
• RES 3: $75.81 - High Feb 20
• RES 2: $74.63 - High Apr 2 and a bull trigger
• RES 1: $66.66 - 50-day EMA           
• PRICE: $64.74 @ 07:09 BST May 12
• SUP 1: $58.00 - Low April 9 and the bear trigger     
• SUP 2: $56.29 - 2.236 proj of the Feb 20 - Mar 5 - Apr 2 price swing
• SUP 3: $55.10 - 2.382 proj of the Feb 20 - Mar 5 - Apr 2 price swing
• SUP 4: $54.00 - Round number support

The trend condition in Brent futures remains bearish and short-term gains are considered corrective - for now. The corrective cycle remains in play and the contract is trading higher. Key resistance to watch is $66.66, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this level is required to highlight a stronger reversal. On the downside, a move lower would refocus attention key support at $58.00, the Apr 9 low. A breach of this support would resume the downtrend.       

WTI TECHS: (M5) Adding To Its Recent Gains  

• RES 4: $75.51 - High Jan 15 and a key resistance   
• RES 3: $72.56 - High Feb 20
• RES 2: $71.76 - High Apr 2 and key resistance
• RES 1: $63.62 - 50-day EMA  
• PRICE: $61.78 @ 07:16 BST May 12 
• SUP 1: $54.67 - Low April 9 and the bear trigger  
• SUP 2: $53.72 - 2.236 proj of the Feb 20 - Mar 5 - Apr 2 price swing
• SUP 3: $52.54 - 2.382 proj of the Jan 15 - Feb 4 - 11 price swing
• SUP 4: $50.00 - Psychological round number  

A downtrend in WTI futures remains intact and short-term gains are considered corrective. The corrective cycle remains in play for now and price has traded through the 20-day EMA. Key short-term resistance to watch is $63.62, the 50-day EMA, a clear break of this level would highlight a stronger reversal. For bears a reversal lower would refocus attention on $54.67, the Apr 9 low and bear trigger. 

GOLD TECHS: Corrective Pullback                           

• RES 4: $3600.0 - Round number resistance 
• RES 3: $3578.0 - 2.000 proj of the Dec 19 - Feb 24 - Feb 28 swing
• RES 2: $3547.9 - 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - Apr 7 price swing
• RES 1: $3435.6/3500.1 - High May 7 / High Apr 22 and bull trigger         
• PRICE: $3279.0 @ 07:22 BST May 12
• SUP 1: $3259.0/3202.0 - Intraday low / Low May 1 
• SUP 2: $3167.8 - High Apr 3 and a recent breakout level 
• SUP 3: $3164.3 - 61.8% retracement Apr 7 - Apr 22 upleg
• SUP 4: $3157.9 - 50-day EMA 

The latest pullback in Gold appears corrective. The primary trend condition is bullish and a resumption of the uptrend would signal scope for a climb towards the bull trigger at $3500.1, the Apr 22 high. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend. Key short-term support has been defined at $3202.0, the May 1 low. A clear break of this level is required to signal scope for a deeper retracement.   

SILVER TECHS: Bullish Theme Intact           

• RES 4: $36.000 - Round number resistance 
• RES 3: $34.903 - High Oct 23 ‘24 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: $34.590 - High Mar 28  
• RES 1: $33.686 - High Apr 25                                        
• PRICE: $32.873 @ 08:11 BST May 12
• SUP 1: $31.668 -  Low May 1
• SUP 2: $30.915/28.351 - Low Apr 11 / 7 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $27.686 - Low Sep 6 ‘24   
• SUP 4: $27.180 - Low Aug 14 ‘24   

A bullish theme in Silver remains intact and the latest pullback that started Apr 25, is likely a correction. Key short-term support has been defined at $31.668, the May 1 low. A break of this level would signal scope for a deeper retracement and open $30.915, the Apr 11 low. For bulls, resistance to watch is $33.686, the Apr 25 high. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend.