MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Positive Development for USDCAD

Price Signal Summary – Positive Development for USD/CAD

• The dominant uptrend in S&P E-Minis remains intact and the latest retracement appears to be a correction - for now. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a clear uptrend and positive market sentiment. The trend set-up in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains bullish and the contract traded to a fresh short-term cycle high earlier this week. The recent print above the May and July highs strengthens a bull theme and signals scope for a climb towards 5575.00.
• GBPUSD is trading lower and remains in retracement mode - a correction. A bullish condition is intact. Recent gains resulted in a breach of 1.3589, the Jul 24 high, signalling scope for a climb towards 1.3636, the 76.4% retracement of the bear leg. AUDUSD is trading at this week’s lows. The latest sell-off has resulted in a print below support at 0.6419, the Aug 1 low and a bear trigger. A clear break of this level would strengthen a bear theme and expose 0.6373, the Jun 23 low. Gains this week in USDCAD and the breach of resistance at 1.3879, the Aug 1 high, mark a positive development for bulls and highlights a resumption of the recovery from Jun 16.
• A bull cycle in Gold remains intact. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend. The sideways trend that has been in place since the Apr peak appears to be a medium-term pause in the uptrend. A bear cycle in WTI futures remains intact and short-term gains appear corrective - for now. A key support at $61.99, the Jun 30 low, has been breached, strengthening a bearish theme.
• Bund futures remain above their recent lows. A bear threat is present. The contract recently breached support at 128.84, the Jul 25 low and a bear trigger. Note that the 129.00 handle marks the base of a broad range. Gilt futures traded sharply lower on Aug 15 and Monday’s sell-off reinforced the current bearish theme. The contract has breached key short-term support and a bear trigger at 91.08, the Jul 18 low.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE    

EURUSD TECHS: Has Pierced The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 1.1851 High Sep 10 2021
• RES 3: 1.1829 High Jul 01 and the bull trigger 
• RES 2: 1.1789 High Jul 24 
• RES 1: 1.1674/1730 High Aug 20 / 13
• PRICE: 1.1587 @ 06:18 BST Aug 22
• SUP 1: 1.1528 Low Aug 5 
• SUP 2: 1.1392 Low Aug 1 and bear trigger 
• SUP 3: 1.1373 Low Jun 10 
• SUP 4: 1.1313 Low May 30 

EURUSD has pulled back from its recent highs. The pair has pierced support at the 50-day EMA, at 1.1591. A clear break of it would signal scope for a deeper retracement and potentially expose key support at 1.1392, the Aug 1 low. The first support to watch lies at 1.1528, the Aug 5 low. For now, the move down appears corrective. A resumption of gains would expose key resistance and the bull trigger at 1.1829, the Jul 1 high. 

GBPUSD TECHS: Retracement Mode 

• RES 4: 1.3753 High High Jul 2   
• RES 3: 1.3681 High Jul 4 
• RES 2: 1.3636 76.4% retracement of the Jul 1 - Aug1 downleg
• RES 1: 1.3509/3595 High Aug 20 / 14
• PRICE: 1.3428 @ 16:30 BST Aug 21
• SUP 1: 1.3369 50.0% retracement of the Aug 1 - 14 bull leg  
• SUP 2: 1.3315 61.8% retracement of the Aug 1 - 14 bull leg
• SUP 3: 1.3249 76.4% retracement of the Aug 1 - 14 bull leg 
• SUP 4: 1.3142 Low Aug 1 and a key support      

GBPUSD is trading lower and remains in retracement mode - a correction. A bullish condition is intact. Recent gains resulted in a breach of 1.3589, the Jul 24 high, signalling scope for a climb towards 1.3636, the 76.4% retracement of the bear leg between Jul 1 and Aug 1. Support at the 50-day EMA, at 1.3448, has been cleared signalling scope for a deeper retracement - for now. The next support to watch lies at 1.3369, a Fibonacci retracement.   

EURGBP TECHS: Monitoring Support  

• RES 4: 0.8769 High Jul 28  
• RES 3: 0.8744 High Aug 7 
• RES 2: 0.8682 High Aug 8  
• RES 1: 0.8667 High Aug 20 
• PRICE: 0.8651 @ 06:58 BST Aug 22
• SUP 1: 0.8597 Low Aug 14 
• SUP 2: 0.8562 50.0% retracement May 29 - Jul 28 upleg 
• SUP 3: 0.8540 Low Jun 30 
• SUP 4: 0.8514 61.8% retracement May 29 - Jul 28 upleg

EURGBP continues to trade above its recent lows. For bulls, a stronger recovery would refocus attention on the bull trigger at 0.8769, the Jul 28 high. On the downside, note that recent weakness resulted in a breach of key support at 0.8611, the Jul 31 low. The cross has also pierced the 50-day EMA, at 0.8619. A clear breach of these supports would instead highlight a stronger reversal. This would open 0.8562, a Fibonacci retracement point. 

USDJPY TECHS: Breaches Resistance 

• RES 4: 151.62 61.8% retracement of the Jan 10 - Apr 22 bear leg
• RES 3: 150.92 High Aug 1 and a key resistance 
• RES 2: 149.81 76.4% retracement of the Aug 1 - 14 bear leg 
• RES 1: 149.12 61.8% retracement of the Aug 1 - 14 bear leg  
• PRICE: 148.55 @ 07:13 BST Aug 22
• SUP 1: 147.26/146.21 20-day EMA / Low Aug 14
• SUP 2: 145.86 Low Jul 24
• SUP 3: 145.40 50% retracement of the Apr - Aug upleg
• SUP 4: 144.80 Trendline drawn from the Apr 22 low 

USDJPY is holding on to this week’s gains and the pair has traded above the Aug 12 high of 148.52. The breach undermines a recent bearish threat and signals scope for a stronger recovery instead. Sights are on 149.12 next, a Fibonacci retracement. Key resistance is far off at 150.92, the Aug 1 high. On the downside, the bear trigger has been defined at 146.21, the Aug 14 low. Clearance of this level would reinstate a bear theme.      

EURJPY TECHS: Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: 177.08 2.000 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - Apr 7 price swing 
• RES 3: 175.43 High Jul 11 ‘24 and a key medium-term resistance
• RES 2: 174.86 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - Apr 7 price swing
• RES 1: 173.02/97 High Aug 13 / High Jul 28 and the bull trigger 
• PRICE: 172.16 @ 07:54 BST Aug 22
• SUP 1: 170.39 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 169.73/45 Low Jul 31 / 23.6% of the Feb 28 - Jul 28 bull leg
• SUP 3: 168.46 Low Jul 1  
• SUP 4: 167.46 Low Jun 23   

The underlying bull trend in EURJPY remains intact and any short-term weakness is considered corrective. Key support to watch lies at the 50-day EMA at 170.39. A clear break of the average is required to highlight a stronger short-term bearish threat. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position reinforcing the primary uptrend. Clearance of the Jul 28 high of 173.97, would confirm a continuation of the bull cycle.  

AUDUSD TECHS: Pierces Key Short-Term Support  

• RES 4: 0.6688 High Nov 7 ‘24
• RES 3: 0.6677 0.764 proj of the Jun 23 - Jul 11 - 17 price swing
• RES 2: 0.6569/6625 High Aug 14 / 24 and the bull trigger 
• RES 1: 0.6494 50-day EMA 
• PRICE: 0.6420 @ 08:01 BST Aug 22
• SUP 1: 0.6415 Low Aug 21
• SUP 2: 0.6373 Low Jun 23 
• SUP 3: 0.6354 38.2% retracement of the Apr 9 - Jul 24 upleg  
• SUP 4: 0.6323 Low Apr 16

AUDUSD is trading at this week’s lows. The latest sell-off has resulted in a print below support at 0.6419, the Aug 1 low and a bear trigger. A clear break of this level would strengthen a bear theme and expose 0.6373, the Jun 23 low and an important support. Note that from a trend perspective, the medium-term condition remains bullish for now. The first important resistance to watch is 0.6494, the 50-day EMA.    

USDCAD TECHS: Bull Cycle Extends  

• RES 4: 1.4111 High Apr 10  
• RES 3: 1.4019 38.2% retracement of the Feb 3 - Jun 16 bear leg 
• RES 2: 1.3968 High May 20
• RES 1: 1.3920 High May 21
• PRICE: 1.3913 @ 08:08 BST Aug 22
• SUP 1: 1.3794 20-day EMA 
• SUP 2: 1.3769/22 50-day EMA / Low Aug 22
• SUP 3: 1.3576 Low Jul 23
• SUP 4: 1.3557/40 Low Jul 3 / Low Jun 16 and the bear trigger 

Gains this week in USDCAD and the breach of resistance at 1.3879, the Aug 1 high, mark a positive development for bulls and highlights a resumption of the recovery from Jun 16. Moving average studies have crossed and are in a bull-mode position, reinforcing current conditions. An extension would signal scope for a climb towards 1.4019, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, support to watch lies at 1.3769, the 50-day EMA.  

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U5) Bear Threat Remains Present  

• RES 4: 130.26 High Aug 8
• RES 3: 129.84/130.06 50-day EMA / High Aug 14   
• RES 2: 129.52 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 129.18 High Aug 18  
• PRICE: 129.09 @ 05:43 BST Aug 22
• SUP 1: 128.64 Low Aug 15 
• SUP 2: 128.40 Low Apr 9
• SUP 3: 128.19 Low Mar 27 (cont) 
• SUP 4: 127.83 76.4% retracement of the Mar 11 - Apr 7 bull leg (cont)  

Bund futures remain above their recent lows. A bear threat is present. The contract recently breached support at 128.84, the Jul 25 low and a bear trigger. Note that the 129.00 handle marks the base of a broad range and a clear range breakout would strengthen a bearish threat. This would open 128.40 initially, the Apr 9 low. Strength above the 50-day EMA of 129.84, is required to signal a reversal. Resistance at the 20-day EMA is at 129.52.  

BOBL TECHS: (U5) Bearish Outlook  

• RES 4: 117.710 High Aug 5 and a key resistance    
• RES 3: 117.640 High Aug 7 
• RES 2: 117.494 50-day EMA 
• RES 1: 117.410 High Aug 21
• PRICE: 117.160 @ 06:06 BST Aug 22
• SUP 1: 116.950 Low Aug 15   
• SUP 2: 116.840 1.00 proj of the Jun 13 - Jul 11 - 22 price swing  
• SUP 3: 116.800 Low Mar 17 (cont) 
• SUP 4: 116.637 76.4% retracement of the Mar 6 - Apr 7 bull leg (cont)

A bearish theme in Bobl futures remains intact and recent gains appear to have been corrective. A strong sell-off on Aug 15 highlights the bearish threat and moving average studies are in a bear-mode position. The contract has pierced support at 116.970, the Jul 25 low and a bear trigger. A clear breach of this level would set the scene for an extension towards 116.849, a Fibonacci projection. Key short-term resistance is 117.494, the 50-day EMA. 

SCHATZ TECHS: (U5) Trend Signals Remain Bearish

• RES 4: 107.300 Round number resistance  
• RES 3: 107.245 High Jul 24
• RES 2: 107.168 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 107.089 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 107.015 @ 06:26 BST Aug 22
• SUP 1: 106.985 Low Aug 15
• SUP 2: 107.964 1.618 proj of the Jul 7 - 11 - 22 price swing 
• SUP 3: 106.928 1.764 proj of the Jul 7 - 11 - 22 price swing
• SUP 4: 106.870 2.000 proj of the Jul 7 - 11 - 22 price swing

A bear trend in Schatz futures remains intact and price is trading closer to its recent lows. The contract traded lower on August 15, resulting in a print below 106.990, the Aug 12 low. A clear breach of this level would resume the downtrend and mark an extension of the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. This would open 106.964, a Fibonacci projection. Initial resistance is 107.089, the 20-day EMA. 

GILT TECHS: (U5) Bear Cycle Remains Intact 

• RES 4: 92.84 High Aug 5 and a bull trigger  
• RES 3: 92.37 High Aug 11       
• RES 2: 91.91 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 91.32/68 High Aug 18 / 15
• PRICE: 91.13 @ Close Aug 20
• SUP 1: 90.43 Low Aug 19
• SUP 2: 90.11 Low May 22 and a key support
• SUP 3: 90.00 Psychological round number 
• SUP 4: 89.68 Low Jan 15 (cont)       

Gilt futures traded sharply lower on Aug 15 and Monday’s sell-off reinforced the current bearish theme. The contract has breached key short-term support and a bear trigger at 91.08, the Jul 18 low. This signals scope for an extension towards 90.11, the May 22 low. On the upside, gains are for now, considered corrective. Resistance to watch is seen at 91.91, the 50-day EMA. Clearance of this average is required to highlight a potential reversal.  

BTP TECHS: (U5) Still Trading Inside A Range      

• RES 4: 122.35 2.500 proj of the May 14 - 20 - 21 price swing
• RES 3: 122.00 Round number resistance 
• RES 2: 121.73 High Jun 13 and the bull trigger 
• RES 1: 121.13 High Aug 15
• PRICE: 120.14 @ Close Aug 21
• SUP 1: 119.59 Low Jul 25 and key short-term support         
• SUP 2: 119.48 Low May 26 
• SUP 3: 118.87 Low May 21  
• SUP 4: 118.51 Low May 14 and key support 

The primary trend condition in BTP futures remains bullish. However, for now, the contract continues to trade inside a range and the Aug 15 sell-off signals scope for a move towards the lower end of the range. Key support to watch lies at 119.59, the Jul 25 low. A clear break of this level would mark a range breakout and highlight a bearish threat. Key resistance is unchanged at 121.73, the Jun 13 high.                      

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (U5) Outlook Remains Bullish 

• RES 4: 5575.00 High Mar 3 and a major resistance (cont) 
• RES 3: 5568.00 High Mar 6  
• RES 2: 5526.00 High Mar 19 / 20 (cont) 
• RES 1: 5503.00 High Aug 20 
• PRICE: 5464.00 @ 06:30 BST Aug 22
• SUP 1: 5400.03 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 5365.06 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 5280.00 Low Aug 7 
• SUP 4: 5249.00 Low Aug 5   

The trend set-up in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains bullish and the contract traded to a fresh short-term cycle high earlier this week. The recent print above the May and July highs strengthens a bull theme and signals scope for a climb towards 5575.00, the Mar 3 high (cont) and key resistance. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting an uptrend. Support to watch lies at 5365.06, the 50-day EMA. 

E-MINI S&P: (U5) Corrective Pullback 

• RES 4: 6600.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 6572.45 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 6523.63 1.764 proj of the May 23 - Jun 11 - 23 price swing 
• RES 1: 6508.75 High Aug 15 and all-time High
• PRICE: 6381.25 @ 07:25 BST Aug 22
• SUP 1: 6362.75 Low Aug 20
• SUP 2: 6313.25 Low Aug 6  
• SUP 3: 6291.07 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 6239.50 Low Aug 1

The dominant uptrend in S&P E-Minis remains intact and the latest retracement appears to be a correction - for now. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a clear uptrend and positive market sentiment. A resumption of gains would pave the way for a climb towards 6523.63, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, support to watch lies at  6291.07, the 50-day EMA.  

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (V5) Still Looking For Weakness 

• RES 4: $81.07 - 2.764 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 3: $79.86 - 2.618 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 2: $77.73 - High Jun 23 and a bull trigger 
• RES 1: $72.83 - High Jul 30 and a key resistance 
• PRICE: $67.74 @ 07:13 BST Aug 22
• SUP 1: $65.01 - Low Aug 13
• SUP 2: $60.96 - Low May 30
• SUP 3: $58.18 - Low May 5
• SUP 4: $57.74 - Low Apr 9 and a key support   

Brent futures are trading above their recent highs but remain in bear cycle. Sights are on $65.01, the Aug 13 low, where a clear break would confirm a resumption of the bear leg and pave the way for an extension lower. A clear breach would open $60.96, the May 30 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at $72.83, the Jul 30 high. Clearance of this level would cancel a bear theme.  

WTI TECHS: (V5) Still Looking For Weakness

• RES 4: $77.85 - 2.794 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 3: $75.65 - 2.500 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 2: $74.25 - High Jun 23 and a bull trigger 
• RES 1: $63.85/69.36 - 50-day EMA / High Jul 30 and key resistance   
• PRICE: $63.62 @ 07:20 BST Aug 22
• SUP 1: $61.29 - Low Aug 13
• SUP 2: $57.71 - Low May 30
• SUP 3: $54.80 - Low May 5
• SUP 4: $54.03 - Low Apr 9 and a key support

A bear cycle in WTI futures remains intact and short-term gains appear corrective - for now. A key support at $61.99, the Jun 30 low, has been breached, strengthening a bearish theme. A continuation lower would open $57.71, the May 30 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at $69.36, the Jul 30 high. Clearance of this level would cancel a bear theme. Initial resistance to watch is $63.85, the 50-day EMA. 

GOLD TECHS: Trading Above Support 

• RES 4: $3547.9 - 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - Apr 7 price swing
• RES 3: $3500.1 - High Apr 22 and bull trigger
• RES 2: $3451.3 - High Jun 16  
• RES 1: $3409.2/3439.0 - High Aug 8 / 23             
• PRICE: $3327.3 @ 07:27 BST Aug 22
• SUP 1: $3268.2 - Low Jul 30 
• SUP 2: $3248.7 - Low Jun 30 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $3204.7 - Low May 20
• SUP 4: $3121.0 - Low May 15 and key support 

A bull cycle in Gold remains intact. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend. The sideways trend that has been in place since the Apr peak appears to be a medium-term pause in the uptrend. A resumption of gains would open $3439.0, the Aug 23 high. Key resistance and the bull trigger is at $3500.1, the Apr 22 low. On the downside, first support to watch lies at $3268.2, the Jul 30 low.             

SILVER TECHS: Trading Above The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: $41.064 - 1.764 proj of the Apr 7 - 25 - May 15 swing
• RES 3: $40.285 - 1.618 proj of the Apr 7 - 25 - May 15 swing
• RES 2: $40.000 - Psychological round number
• RES 1: $39.655 - 1.500 proj of the Apr 7 - 25 - May 15 swing    
• PRICE: $38.077 @ 08:14 BST Aug 22
• SUP 1: $37.161/36.216 - 50-day EMA / Low Jul 31 
• SUP 2: $35.285 - Low Jun 24
• SUP 3: $33.940 - 50.0% retracement of the Apr 7 - Jul 23 bull leg  
• SUP 4: $32.958 - Low Jun 2

Trend signals in Silver are unchanged and remain bullish. Prices have recently recovered off support at the 50-day EMA, now at $37.161. A clear break of the average is needed to strengthen a short-term bearish threat and allow for a deeper retracement. This would open $35.285, the Jun 24 low. For bulls, a resumption of gains would refocus attention on the next objective at $39.655 a Fibonacci projection.