MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Oil Fades Fast Off Resistance

Price Signal Summary – Oil Fades Fast Off Resistance

• A bullish trend condition in S&P E-Minis remains intact and the latest pullback is considered corrective. An important resistance at 5837.25, the Mar 25 high and a bull trigger, has recently been cleared. This has strengthened the current bullish theme, and paves the way for a continuation near-term. Eurostoxx 50 futures continue to trade at their recent highs and a bullish theme remains intact. The contract is extending the recent breach of 5263.01, 76.4% of the Mar 3 - Apr 7 bear leg, and maintains the sequence of higher highs and higher lows.                 
• GBPUSD is trading closer to its latest highs. Yesterday, key resistance and the bull trigger at 1.3444, the Apr 28 / 29 high, was pierced. A clear break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open 1.3510. USDJPY has traded lower this week and maintains a softer tone. The bear leg that started May 12 highlights the end of the corrective cycle since Apr 22 and marks a resumption of the downtrend. The recent consolidation phase in AUDUSD appears to be a triangle formation - a bullish continuation signal. The trend condition is unchanged, it remains bullish and attention is on key resistance at 0.6515, the May 7 high.                
• Gold has recovered from its recent lows and is again trading higher, today. The climb signals the end of the corrective phase between Apr 22 - May 15. Medium-term trend signals remain bullish. WTI futures traded to a fresh short-term cycle high Wednesday before finding resistance. The recovery since Apr 9, still appears corrective. Key resistance to watch is $62.82, the 50-day EMA.
• Bund futures have pulled back from their recent highs. The recovery that started May 15 suggests the move down between Apr 22 - May 15, has been a correction. A resumption of gains  would strengthen the reversal and open 130.86. A bear cycle in Gilt futures remains in play and this week’s extension reinforces the bearish theme. Support at 90.92, the 76.4% retracement of the Apr 9 - May 2 rally, has been cleared. This break paves the way for an extension towards 89.99, the Apr 9 low. 

FOREIGN EXCHANGE    

EURUSD TECHS: Holding On To This Week’s Gains                  

• RES 4: 1.1625 1.500 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - 27 price swing
• RES 3: 1.1608 High Nov 9 2021
• RES 2: 1.1440/1573 High Apr 23 / 21 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.1381 High May 2 - 6  
• PRICE: 1.1332 @ 05:57 BST May 22
• SUP 1: 1.1245 20-day EMA 
• SUP 2: 1.1118/65 50-day EMA and a pivot level / Low May 12
• SUP 3: 1.1026 38.2% retracement of the Feb 3 - Apr 21 bull cycle   
• SUP 4: 1.0943 Low Apr 10

EURUSD is holding on to this week’s gains. Trend conditions remain bullish and moving average studies are in a bull mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. The latest recovery suggests the Apr 21 - May 12 correction is over. Sights are on 1.1381 next, the May 2 - 6 high. Key support to watch lies at 1.1118, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this level would highlight a stronger reversal and signal scope for a deeper retracement.  

GBPUSD TECHS: Trend Needle Points North  

• RES 4: 1.3605 1.382 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - 7 price swing
• RES 3: 1.3550 High Feb 24 ‘22
• RES 2: 1.3510 1.236 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - 7 price swing
• RES 1: 1.3469 High May 21  
• PRICE: 1.3426 @ 06:19 BST May 22
• SUP 1: 1.3295 20-day EMA   
• SUP 2: 1.3148/40/37 50-day EMA / Low May 12
• SUP 3: 1.3041 Low Apr 14  
• SUP 4: 1.2968 Low Apr 11 

GBPUSD is trading closer to its latest highs. Yesterday, key resistance and the bull trigger at 1.3444, the Apr 28 / 29 high, was pierced. A clear break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open 1.3510, a Fibonacci projection point. Medium-term trend signals highlight a dominant uptrend - moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position. Key support to watch is at the 50-day EMA. The average lies at 1.3148.   

EURGBP TECHS: Monitoring Resistance At The 50-day EMA

• RES 4: 0.8768 High Nov 20 ‘23    
• RES 3: 0.8624/0.8738 High Apr 21/ High Apr 11 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 0.8541/8557 High May 2 / High Apr 28
• RES 1: 0.8456 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.8438 @ 06:36 BST May 22
• SUP 1: 0.8394 Low May 16   
• SUP 2: 0.8359 1.236 proj of the Apr 11 - 16 - 21 price swing
• SUP 3: 0.8316 Low Mar 28 and a key support
• SUP 4: 0.8277 1.618 proj of the Apr 11 - 16 - 21 price swing  

This week’s gains in EURGBP have resulted in a brief print above the 50-day EMA at 0.8456. For bulls, a clear break and close above the 50-day average would conclude the recent bearish phase and shift attention to 0.8541 resistance, the May 2 high. To the downside, the 0.8400 handle has been breached in recent weeks, an extension below which would open 0.8359, a Fibonacci projection.

USDJPY TECHS: Bear Leg Extension   

• RES 4: 150.49 High Apr 2   
• RES 3: 149.28 High Apr 3
• RES 2: 148.65 High May 12 and a key resistance 
• RES 1: 144.98/146.06 20- and 50-day EMA 
• PRICE: 143.32 @ 08:24 BST May 22
• SUP 1: 143.10 Intraday low 
• SUP 2: 142.36 Low May 6 
• SUP 3: 141.96 76.4% retracement of the Apr 22 - May 12 bull leg  
• SUP 4: 139.89 Low Apr 22 and a bear trigger

USDJPY has traded lower this week and maintains a softer tone. The bear leg that started May 12 highlights the end of the corrective cycle since Apr 22 and marks a resumption of the downtrend. Sights are on 142.36, the May 6 low. Note that the 20-day EMA, at 145.11, has been cleared, strengthening a bearish theme. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 148.65, the May 12 high. Initial firm resistance is 146.06, 50-day EMA.   

EURJPY TECHS: Challenging Key Support  

• RES 4: 166.69 High Oct 31 2024 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 166.10 High Nov 6         
• RES 2: 165.21/43 High May 13 / High Nov 8 2024 
• RES 1: 164.07 High May 15 
• PRICE: 162.33 @ 07:05 BST May 22
• SUP 1: 162.30/15 50-day EMA / Low May 19      
• SUP 2: 161.60 Low May 6
• SUP 3: 160.99 Low Apr 22  
• SUP 4: 159.48 Low Apr 9  

EURJPY is trading just above its latest lows. The pullback from 165.21, the May 13 high, is - for now - considered corrective. However, the cross is testing a key support at 162.30, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this level would undermine a bearish theme and signal scope for a deeper retracement. For bulls, a resumption of gains would refocus attention on the bull trigger at 165.21, the May 13 high.  

AUDUSD TECHS: Bullish Triangle Formation 

• RES 4: 0.5682 High Nov 12 ‘24  
• RES 3: 0.6550 61.8% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Apr 9 bear leg
• RES 2: 0.6528 High Nov 29 ‘24
• RES 1: 0.6515 High May 7 
• PRICE: 0.6442 @ 08:05 BST May 22
• SUP 1: 0.6365/57 50-day EMA / Low May 12   
• SUP 2: 0.6275 Low Apr 14    
• SUP 3: 0.6181 Low Apr 11
• SUP 4: 0.6116 Low Apr 10  

The recent consolidation phase in AUDUSD appears to be a triangle formation - a bullish continuation signal. The trend condition is unchanged, it remains bullish and attention is on key resistance at 0.6515, the May 7 high. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting an uptrend. A resumption of the trend would open 0.6550, a Fibonacci retracement. Key support lies at 0.6365, the 50-day EMA. 

USDCAD TECHS: Trend Needle Points South  

• RES 4: 1.4296 High Apr 7
• RES 3: 1.4200 Round number resistance 
• RES 2: 1.4111 High Apr 4
• RES 1: 1.4011/16 50-day EMA / High May 12 / 13
• PRICE: 1.3860 @ 08:10 BST May 22
• SUP 1: 1.3814/3751 Low May 8 / 6 and the bear trigger  
• SUP 2: 1.3744 76.4% retracement of Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bull run
• SUP 3: 1.3696 Low Oct 10 ‘24
• SUP 4: 1.3643 Low Oct 9 ‘24 

The trend condition in USDCAD remains bearish and recent gains appear corrective. Furthermore, this week’s move lower reinforces the bearish theme and note that MA studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. A resumption of the trend would open 1.3744, a Fibonacci retracement. Key resistance to watch is 1.4011, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this hurdle would signal a stronger reversal. 

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M5) Monitoring Support                          

• RES 4: 132.56 High Feb 28 and a key resistance               
• RES 3: 131.72/132.03 High May 7 / High Apr 7 and the bull trigger     
• RES 2: 130.86 High May 9 Round number resistance 
• RES 1: 130.75 High May 20                     
• PRICE: 129.64 @ 05:37 BST May 22
• SUP 1: 129.13 Low May 15 and key short-term support             
• SUP 2: 129.02 Low Apr 10           
• SUP 3: 128.60 Low Apr 9 and a key support  
• SUP 4: 128.19 Low Mar 27 

Bund futures have pulled back from their recent highs. The recovery that started May 15 suggests the move down between Apr 22 - May 15, has been a correction. A resumption of gains  would strengthen the reversal and open 130.86, the May 9 high. Further out, scope would be seen for a move towards 132.03, the Apr 7 high. Key short-term support to watch is 129.13, the May 15 low. A break would be bearish and resume the recent bear cycle.                                             

BOBL TECHS: (M5) Remains Above Support                    

• RES 4: 119.960 High Apr 7 and the bull trigger          
• RES 3: 119.780 High Apr 22          
• RES 2: 119.600 High May 7
• RES 1: 118.950 High May 12 / 20                                     
• PRICE: 118.470 @ 05:49 BST May 22 
• SUP 1: 118.420 Low May 19        
• SUP 2: 118.060 Low May 14 and 15 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 117.680 Low Apr 9 and a key support
• SUP 4: 117.600 Low Mar 28     

The recovery since May 14 in Bobl futures signals a possible reversal and the end of the corrective cycle between Apr 22 - May 15. A resumption of gains would open 118.950, the May 12 / 20 high. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bullish theme. On the downside, a resumption of weakness would instead expose 117.680, the Apr 9 low and a key support. The bear trigger is 118.060, the May 14 / 15 low.                      

SCHATZ TECHS: (M5) Resistance Intact For Now                                     

• RES 4: 107.775 High Apr 7 and the bull trigger    
• RES 3: 107.600 High Apr 30  
• RES 2: 107.550 High May 7  
• RES 1: 107.335 High May 12 / 20                  
• PRICE: 107.210 @ 06:15 BST May 22
• SUP 1: 107.175/070 Low May 19 / 13 and the bear trigger  
• SUP 2: 106.965 Low Apr 9 and a key support     
• SUP 3: 106.928 61.8% retracement of the Mar 6 - Apr 7 bull cycle        
• SUP 4: 106.830 Low Mar 27      

Despite recent gains, a  bearish theme in Schatz futures remains intact for now. A resumption of the bear leg would signal scope for an extension towards the next key support at 106.965, the Apr 9 low. The bear trigger has been defined at 107.070, the May 13 low. On the upside, resistance to watch is 107.335, the May 12 / 20 high. Clearance of this hurdle would signal a potential reversal. This would open 107.550, the May 7 high.                                                           

GILT TECHS: (M5) Key Support Remains Exposed                     

• RES 4: 93.00 Round number resistance 
• RES 3: 92.53 High May 9      
• RES 2: 92.20 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 90.88 High MAy 21                             
• PRICE: 90.60 @ Close May 21
• SUP 1: 90.39 Low May 21                                          
• SUP 2: 89.99 Low Apr 9 and a key support
• SUP 3: 89.42 1.00 proj of the Apr 7 - 9 - May 2 price swing   
• SUP 4: 89.00 Round number resistance      

A bear cycle in Gilt futures remains in play and this week’s extension reinforces the bearish theme. Support at 90.92, the 76.4% retracement of the Apr 9 - May 2 rally, has been cleared. This break paves the way for an extension towards 89.99, the Apr 9 low and the next key support. Resistance to watch is 92.20, the 50-day EMA. Clearance of this level would be bullish and signal a potential reversal.                                

BTP TECHS: (M5) Corrective Cycle                                     

• RES 4: 121.93 76.4% of the Dec 5 ‘24 - Mar 14 bear leg (cont)       
• RES 3: 121.43 1.618 proj of the Mar 14 - Apr 4 - 9 price swing    
• RES 2: 121.00 High Feb 7 (cont) and a key resistance  
• RES 1: 120.72 High May 8 and the bull trigger               
• PRICE: 119.84 @ Close May 21 
• SUP 1: 119.24/00 50-day EMA / Low May 14       
• SUP 2: 118.76/09 Low Apr 15 / 14       
• SUP 3: 117.28 Low Apr 10 
• SUP 4: 116.06 Low Apr 9    

A bull cycle in BTP futures remains intact. However, near-term, a corrective phase continues to signal potential for a pullback. Key support to watch lies at 119.24, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of it would signal scope for a deeper retracement, and open 118.76 initially, the Apr 15 low. On the upside, key resistance and the bull trigger is at 120.72, the May 8 high. A break of this hurdle resumes the uptrend.                 

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M5) Bull Cycle Remains In Play                

• RES 4: 5600.00 Round number resistance    
• RES 3: 5565.23 1.618 proj of the Apr 7 - 9 - 10 price swing
• RES 2: 5516.00 High Mar 3 and the key bull trigger
• RES 1: 5475.00 High May 20  
• PRICE: 5418.00 @ 06:31 BST May 22 
• SUP 1: 5355.00 Low May 15                        
• SUP 2: 5289.45/5211.33 20- and 50-day EMA values 
• SUP 3: 5142.00 Low May 2         
• SUP 4: 5055.00 Low Apr 30  

Eurostoxx 50 futures continue to trade at their recent highs and a bullish theme remains intact. The contract is extending the recent breach of 5263.01, 76.4% of the Mar 3 - Apr 7 bear leg, and maintains the sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on 5516.00, the Mar 3 high and the key bull trigger. Key support to watch lies at 5211.33, the 50-day EMA. Clearance of this level would signal a possible reversal.               

E-MINI S&P: (M5) Corrective Pullback                   

• RES 4: 6080.75 High Feb 26    
• RES 3: 6057.00 High Mar 3  
• RES 2: 6000.00 Round number resistance      
• RES 1: 5993.50 High May 20                                     
• PRICE: 5868.75 @ 07:25 BST May 22 
• SUP 1: 5837.25/5709.84 High Mar 25 / 50-day EMA                        
• SUP 2: 5455.50 Low Apr 30 
• SUP 3: 5355.25 Low Apr 24
• SUP 4: 5127.25 Low Apr 21 and a key support 

A bullish trend condition in S&P E-Minis remains intact and the latest pullback is considered corrective. An important resistance at 5837.25, the Mar 25 high and a bull trigger, has recently been cleared. This has strengthened the current bullish theme, and paves the way for a continuation near-term. Sights are on the 6000.00 handle next. Initial firm support to watch lies at 5703.54, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of it would highlight a potential reversal.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (N5) M/T Trend Structure Remains Bearish   

• RES 4: $75.81 - High Feb 20 
• RES 3: $74.63 - High Apr 2 and a bull trigger
• RES 2: $68.28 - 61.8% retracement of the Apr 2 - 9 sell-off 
• RES 1: $66.32/81 - 50-day EMA / High May 13           
• PRICE: $64.91 @ 07:10 BST May 22
• SUP 1: $58.00 - Low April 9 and the bear trigger     
• SUP 2: $56.29 - 2.236 proj of the Feb 20 - Mar 5 - Apr 2 price swing
• SUP 3: $55.10 - 2.382 proj of the Feb 20 - Mar 5 - Apr 2 price swing
• SUP 4: $54.00 - Round number support

Brent futures continue to trade closer to their recent highs and the contract maintains a short-term bullish theme. However, the medium-term trend condition remains bearish and recent gains appear corrective. Attention is on $66.32, the 50-day EMA. It has been pierced. A clear break of the average would highlight a stronger bull cycle and expose $68.28, a Fibonacci retracement. A reversal lower would open $58.00, Apr 9 low.       

WTI TECHS: (N5) Shooting Star Reversal Candle       

• RES 4: $72.12 - High Feb 20  
• RES 3: $71.10 - High Apr 2 and key resistance
• RES 2: $65.82 - High Apr 4 2 and key resistance
• RES 1: $62.82/64.19 - 50-day EMA / High May 21   
• PRICE: $61.57 @ 07:21 BST May 22 
• SUP 1: $54.33 - Low April 9 and the bear trigger  
• SUP 2: $53.30 - 2.236 proj of the Feb 20 - Mar 5 - Apr 2 price swing
• SUP 3: $52.14 - 2.382 proj of the Jan 15 - Feb 4 - 11 price swing
• SUP 4: $50.00 - Psychological round number  

WTI futures traded to a fresh short-term cycle high Wednesday before finding resistance. The recovery since Apr 9, still appears corrective. Key resistance to watch is $62.82, the 50-day EMA. It has been pierced, a clear break of it would highlight a stronger reversal and open $65.82, Apr 4 high. For bears a reversal lower would refocus attention on $54.33, the Apr 9 low and bear trigger. Yesterday’s price pattern is a shooting star candle - a reversal signal. 

GOLD TECHS: Bullish Outlook                                

• RES 4: $3578.0 - 2.000 proj of the Dec 19 - Feb 24 - Feb 28 swing 
• RES 3: $3547.9 - 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - Apr 7 price swing
• RES 2: $3435.6/3500.1 - High May 7 / High Apr 22 and bull trigger
• RES 1: $3347.5 - High May 9        
• PRICE: $3329.7 @ 07:25 BST May 22
• SUP 1: $3265.1/3121.0 - 20-day EMA / Low May 15 
• SUP 2: $3085.0 - 61.8% retracement of the Apr 7 - Apr 22 upleg 
• SUP 3: $3100.0 - Round number support 
• SUP 4: $3023.7 - 1.382 proj of the Apr 22 - May 1 - May 7 price swing  

Gold has recovered from its recent lows and is again trading higher, today. The climb signals the end of the corrective phase between Apr 22 - May 15. Medium-term trend signals remain bullish - moving average studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend. A continuation would open $3435.6 next, the May 7 high. Key support and the bear trigger has been defined at $3121.0, the May 15 low.     

SILVER TECHS: Bullish Trend Set-Up            

• RES 4: $36.000 - Round number resistance 
• RES 3: $34.903 - High Oct 23 ‘24 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: $34.590 - High Mar 28  
• RES 1: $33.686/700 - High Apr 25 / Intraday high                                         
• PRICE: $33.478 @ 08:15 BST May 22
• SUP 1: $31.668/651 -  Low May 1 / 15 
• SUP 2: $30.915/28.351 - Low Apr 11 / 7 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $27.686 - Low Sep 6 ‘24   
• SUP 4: $27.180 - Low Aug 14 ‘24   

A bullish theme in Silver remains intact and this week’s gains reinforce this theme. Key short-term support has been defined at $31.651, the May 15 low. A clear break of this level would signal scope for a deeper retracement and open $30.915, the Apr 11 low. For bulls, resistance to watch is $33.686, the Apr 25 high. It has been pierced, a clear break of it would confirm a resumption of the uptrend.