MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Oil Extends Bull Phase

Price Signal Summary – Oil Spike Marks Extension of Bull Phase

• The trend condition in S&P E-Minis remains bullish and the contract traded to a fresh cycle high on Wednesday, reinforcing current bullish conditions. For now, today’s pullback is considered corrective. Today’s move down in the Eurostoxx 50 futures contract has resulted in a breach of the 50-day EMA at 5298.00. Price has also pierced 5255.00, the May 23 low. 
• A bullish theme in EURGBP remains intact and the cross traded sharply higher Thursday. The latest recovery has resulted in a break of the 50-day EMA. USDJPY continues to trade below this week’s high. The latest pullback suggests the correction between Jun 3 - 11, is over. The trend remains bearish - moving average studies remain in a clear bear-mode position too, highlighting a dominant downtrend. The trend set-up in AUDUSD remains bullish, and this week’s fresh cycle reinforces current conditions. Key support lies at 0.6421, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average is required to highlight a potential short-term reversal.
• A bullish theme in Gold remains intact and this week’s gains reinforce bullish conditions. Medium-term trend signals are bullish too - moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. WTI futures have traded sharply higher this week and today's rally marks an acceleration of the current bull phase. Price action is likely to be volatile and from a technical standpoint, the trend is currently in an extreme overbought position.
• A bull cycle in Bund futures remains intact and this week’s gains reinforce current conditions. Price is approaching key resistance at 131.85, the Apr 22 high and a bull trigger. A bullish condition is Gilt futures remains intact and today’s gap higher reinforces current conditions. The move higher also marks an extension of the recent breach of resistance at 91.87, the May 20 high.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE    

EURUSD TECHS: Trend Needle Points North                     

• RES 4: 1.1783 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - 27 price swing
• RES 3: 1.1696 1.618 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - 27 price swing
• RES 2: 1.1685 76.4% retracement of the Jan ‘21 - Sep ‘22 downleg
• RES 1: 1.1631 High Jun 12
• PRICE: 1.1522 @ 06:24 BST Jun 13
• SUP 1: 1.1389 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.1255/1.1210 50-day EMA and a pivot level / Low May 29
• SUP 3: 1.1131 Low May 16 
• SUP 4: 1.1065 Low May 12 and a reversal trigger 

A bullish EURUSD theme remains intact and this week’s gains reinforce conditions. Thursday’s strong rally resulted in a break of key resistance and the bull trigger at 1.1573, the Apr 21 high. This strengthens a bullish theme and confirms a resumption of this year's uptrend. Sights are on 1.1696 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support is at 1.1389, the 20-day EMA. The 50-day EMA lies at 1.1255. Today’s pullback is considered corrective.      

GBPUSD TECHS: Corrective Pullback    

• RES 4: 1.3800 Round number resistance 
• RES 3: 1.3757 1.618 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - 7 price swing
• RES 2: 1.3681 1.500 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - 7 price swing
• RES 1: 1.3624 High Jun 12
• PRICE: 1.3538 @ 06:51 BST Jun 13
• SUP 1: 1.3456 Low Jun 10
• SUP 2: 1.3316 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.3196 Trendline support drawn from the Jan 13 low 
• SUP 4: 1.3140 Low May 12 and key support

The uptrend in GBPUSD remains intact and short-term weakness is considered corrective. A bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows, together with a bull set-up in moving average studies, highlights a dominant uptrend. Sights are on 1.3681 next, a Fibonacci projection. Resistance at 1.3616, the Jun 5 high has been pierced - a bullish development. Support to watch lies at 1.3456, the Jun 10 low.       

EURGBP TECHS: Bull Cycle Remains Intact    

• RES 4: 0.8624 High Apr 21    
• RES 3: 0.8592 61.8% retracement of the Apr 11 - May 29 downleg
• RES 2: 0.8566 High Apr 24 
• RES 1: 0.8547 High Jun 12
• PRICE: 0.8517 @ 07:06 BST Jun 13
• SUP 1: 0.8476/8445 Low Jun 12 / 50-day EMA 
• SUP 2: 0.8407/8356 Low Jun 4 / Low May 29 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 3: 0.8327 1.382 proj of the Apr 11 - 16 - 21 price swing
• SUP 4: 0.8316 Low Mar 28 and a key support

A bullish theme in EURGBP remains intact and the cross traded sharply higher Thursday. The latest recovery has resulted in a break of the 50-day EMA. The subsequent bullish follow through, highlights a stronger reversal. This signals scope for a climb towards 0.8592, a Fibonacci retracement. Support to watch lies at 0.8445, the 50-day EMA. Clearance of this level would highlight a possible reversal.   

USDJPY TECHS: Resistance Remains Intact    

• RES 4: 150.49 High Apr 2   
• RES 3: 149.28 High Apr 3
• RES 2: 147.67/148.65 High May 14 / 12 and a reversal trigger
• RES 1: 145.46/146.28 High Jun 11 / High May 29 and key resistance
• PRICE: 143.49 @ 07:10 BST Jun 13
• SUP 1: 142.12 Low May 27 and a key support
• SUP 2: 141.96 76.4% retracement of the Apr 22 - May 12 bull leg
• SUP 3: 139.89 Low Apr 22 and a bear trigger 
• SUP 4: 138.82 1.50 proj of the Feb 12 - Mar 11 - 28 price swing 

USDJPY continues to trade below this week’s high. The latest pullback suggests the correction between Jun 3 - 11, is over. The trend remains bearish - moving average studies remain in a clear bear-mode position too, highlighting a dominant downtrend. A continuation lower would signal scope for a test of 142.12, the May 27 low. Key short-term resistance is 146.28, the May 29 high. First resistance is at 145.46, the Jun 11 high.   

EURJPY TECHS: Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat    

• RES 4: 168.01 High Jul 26 ‘24 
• RES 3: 167.87 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 167.47 61.8% retracement of the Jul 11 - Aug 5 2024 bear leg
• RES 1: 166.74 High Jun 12
• PRICE: 165.53 @ 07:18 BST Jun 13 
• SUP 1: 164.21 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 163.20 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 161.78 Low May 26 
• SUP 4: 161.09 Low May 23 and key support   

The trend set-up in EURJPY remains bullish. The cross has recently breached a key resistance at 165.21, the May 13 high. The break strengthens bullish conditions and confirms a resumption of the uptrend, opening 167.47, a Fibonacci retracement. Key short-term support lies at 161.09, the May 23 low, where a break is required to highlight a stronger reversal. First support is at 164.21, the 20-day EMA. Today’s move down is considered corrective.    

AUDUSD TECHS: Today’s Move Down Appears Corrective      

• RES 4: 0.6603 High Nov 11 ‘24  
• RES 3: 0.6582 High Nov 12 ‘24
• RES 2: 0.6550 61.8% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Apr 9 bear leg
• RES 1: 0.6546 High June 11
• PRICE: 0.6476 @ 07:57 BST Jun 13
• SUP 1: 0.6457/6421 Intraday low / 50-day EMA 
• SUP 2: 0.6357 Low May 12    
• SUP 3: 0.6275 Low Apr 14 
• SUP 4: 0.6181 Low Apr 11 

The trend set-up in AUDUSD remains bullish, and this week’s fresh cycle reinforces current conditions. Key support lies at 0.6421, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average is required to highlight a potential short-term reversal. The pair has recently cleared a key resistance at 0.6515, the May 7 high, confirming a resumption of the uptrend. Sights are on 0.6550, a Fibonacci retracement. Today’s pullback is - for now - considered corrective.  

USDCAD TECHS: Bearish Trend Sequence      

• RES 4: 1.4200 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 1.4111 High Apr 4
• RES 2: 1.3872/1.4016 50-day EMA / High May 12 and 13
• RES 1: 1.3747 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.3628 @ 08:04 BST Jun 13
• SUP 1: 1.3593 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 1.3579 1.500 proj of the Feb 3 - 14 - Mar 4 price swing
• SUP 3: 1.3503 1.618 proj of the Feb 3 - 14 - Mar 4 price swing
• SUP 4: 1.3473 Low Oct 2 2024 

The trend needle in USDCAD continues to point south and fresh cycle lows this week reinforce a bearish theme. Support at 1.3686, the May 26 low and a bear trigger, has recently been cleared, confirming a resumption of the downtrend. This maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Sights are on 1.3579 next, a Fibonacci projection. Key resistance is at the 50-day EMA, at 1.3872. The 20-day EMA is at 1.3747.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U5) Approaching Key Resistance                          

• RES 4: 132.79 2.236 proj of the May 14 - 20 - 22 price swing
• RES 3: 132.42 2.000 proj of the May 14 - 20 - 22 price swing     
• RES 2: 132.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 131.85 High Apr 22 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 131.73 @ 06:04 BST Jun 13
• SUP 1: 130.63 20-day EMA              
• SUP 2: 130.12 Low Jun 5 a key short-term support 
• SUP 3: 129.30 Low May 22   
• SUP 4: 128.97 Low May 14 and a reversal trigger  

A bull cycle in Bund futures remains intact and this week’s gains reinforce current conditions. Price is approaching key resistance at 131.85, the Apr 22 high and a bull trigger. Clearance of this resistance would confirm a resumption of the uptrend that has been in place since Mar 11. A break of 131.85 would open 132.00 and above. Key short-term support has been defined at 130.12, the Jun 5 low.                                                

BOBL TECHS: (U5) Bullish Outlook                        

• RES 4: 118.790 High Apr 7 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 118.649 1.382 proj of the May 21 - Jun 3 - Jun 5 price swing
• RES 2: 118.531 1.236 proj of the May 21 - Jun 3 - Jun 5 price swing
• RES 1: 118.340 Intraday high   
• PRICE: 118.320 @ 06:28 BST Jun 13  
• SUP 1: 117.889/117.530 20-day EMA / Low Jun 5 
• SUP 2: 117.470 Low May 21 and a key near-term support
• SUP 3: 117.470 Low May 21
• SUP 4: 116.660 Low Mar 27       

Bobl futures remain in a bull cycle and this week’s gains reinforce current conditions. The contract has pierced resistance at 118.280, the Jun 3 / 5 high. This signals scope for a climb towards 118.531, a Fibonacci projection. Further out, potential is seen for an extension towards 118.790, the Apr 7 high. On the downside, support to monitor is 117.530, the Jun 5 low. A break of this level would be bearish.                            

SCHATZ TECHS: (U5) Monitoring Resistance                        

• RES 4: 107.830 High Apr 22  
• RES 3: 107.690 High Apr 30
• RES 2: 107.610 High May 23 and a key near-term resistance
• RES 1: 107.425/475 Intraday high / High May 27 
• PRICE: 107.410 @ 06:49 BST Jun 13
• SUP 1: 107.195 Low Jun 6    
• SUP 2: 107.125 Low May 12 and a key support
• SUP 3: 107.000 Round number support 
• SUP 4: 106.890 2.000 proj of the May 23 - 29 - 30 price swing

Schatz futures continue to appreciate and the contract is approaching the next resistance level at 107.475, the May 27 high. Clearance of this hurdle would strengthen a bullish theme and signal scope for an extension towards key resistance at 107.610, the May 23 high. On the downside, support to watch lies at 107.195, the Jun 6 low. A turn lower and a breach of this support would reinstate a bearish threat.                                                            

GILT TECHS: (U5) Bull Cycle Overbought But Remains Intact                         

• RES 4: 94.15 2.000 proj of the May 22 - 27 - 29 price swing
• RES 3: 94.00 Round number resistance      
• RES 2: 93.73 1.764 proj of the May 22 - 27 - 29 price swing
• RES 1: 93.68 Intraday high    
• PRICE: 93.26 @ 08:09 BST Jun 13
• SUP 1: 92.80 Low Jun 12
• SUP 2: 91.98 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 91.56 Low Jun 9   
• SUP 4: 91.44 Low Jun 8        

A bullish condition is Gilt futures remains intact and today’s gap higher reinforces current conditions. The move higher also marks an extension of the recent breach of resistance at 91.87, the May 20 high. This signals scope for a test of 93.73 next, a Fibonacci projection point. Note the uptrend is in overbought territory, a pullback would unwind this position. First support lies at 92.80, the Jun 12 low.                                   

BTP TECHS: (U5) Holding On To Its Latest Gains

• RES 4: 122.71 2.764proj of the May 14 - 20 - 21 price swing
• RES 3: 122.35 2.500 proj of the May 14 - 20 - 21 price swing 
• RES 2: 122.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 121.65 2.000 proj of the May 14 - 20 - 21 price swing
• PRICE: 121.46 @ 07:07 BST Jun 13 
• SUP 1: 120.45 20-day EMA      
• SUP 2: 119.48 Low May 26 
• SUP 3: 118.87 Low May 21  
• SUP 4: 118.51 Low May 14 and key support 

The trend condition in BTP futures is unchanged, it remains bullish and fresh cycle highs this week reinforce current conditions. The move higher confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on 121.65 next, a Fibonacci projection. Key support to watch lies at 118.51, the May 14 low. A clear break of this level would highlight a reversal. First support lies at 120.45 the 20-day EMA.                  

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M5) Challenging Support  

• RES 4: 5565.23 1.618 proj of the Apr 7 - 9 - 10 price swing   
• RES 3: 5516.00 High Mar 3 and the key bull trigger
• RES 2: 5475.00 High May 20
• RES 1: 5374.40 20-day EMA  
• PRICE: 5276.00 @ 07:18 BST Jun 13 
• SUP 1: 5242.00 Intraday low 
• SUP 2: 5178.00 Low May 6 
• SUP 3: 5081.61 38.2% retracement of the Apr 7 - May 20 bull leg
• SUP 4: 5055.00 Low Apr 30  

Today’s move down in the Eurostoxx 50 futures contract has resulted in a breach of the 50-day EMA at 5298.00. Price has also pierced 5255.00, the May 23 low. A clear break of both support points would highlight a short-term top and signal scope for a deeper retracement. This would open 5178.00, the May 6 low and 5081.16, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial resistance to watch is 5374.40, the 20-day EMA.               

E-MINI S&P: (M5) Monitoring Support  

• RES 4: 6172.38 1.500 proj of the Apr 7 - 10 - 21 price swing     
• RES 3: 6124.00 High Feb 24  
• RES 2: 6080.75 High Feb 26
• RES 1: 6074.75 High Jun 11  
• PRICE: 5960.75@ 07:43 BST Jun 13  
• SUP 1: 5927.50/5825.83 Intraday low / 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 5756.50 Low May 23    
• SUP 3: 5596.00 Low May 7
• SUP 4: 5455.50 Low Apr 30

The trend condition in S&P E-Minis remains bullish and the contract traded to a fresh cycle high on Wednesday, reinforcing current bullish conditions. For now, today’s pullback is considered corrective. The contract has pierced support at 5933.69, the 20-day EMA. A clear breach of this average would expose the 50-day EMA, at 5825.83. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 6074.75, the Jun 11 high.        

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (Q5) Bull Cycle Accelerates    

• RES 4: $83.46 - 2.764 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May price swing
• RES 3: $82.13 - 2.618 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May price swing 
• RES 2: $80.00 - Psychological round number 
• RES 1: $78.50 - Intraday high  
• PRICE: $75.62 @ 05:40 BST Jun 13
• SUP 1: $73.88 - High Apr 2 
• SUP 2: $70.41 - Intraday low 
• SUP 3: $65.57 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: $62.09 - Low May 30

A bull cycle in Brent futures remains in play and this week’s impulsive rally, and today’s strong acceleration, reinforces bullish conditions. Price action is likely to be volatile and from a technical standpoint, the trend is currently in an extreme overbought position. A continuation higher would expose the $80.00 handle next. Initial support lies at $73.88, the Apr 2 high. A firmer short-term support is seen at today’s $70.41 low.          

WTI TECHS: (N5) Impulsive Rally          

• RES 4: $84.23 - 3.000 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 3: $81.93 - 2.764 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing 
• RES 2: $80.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 1: $77.62 - Intraday high 
• PRICE: $73.89 @ 05:50 BST Jun 13 
• SUP 1: $71.50 - High Apr 2 
• SUP 2: $68.49 - Intraday low
• SUP 3: $63.23 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: $59.74 - Low May 30 

WTI futures have traded sharply higher this week and today's rally marks an acceleration of the current bull phase. Price action is likely to be volatile and from a technical standpoint, the trend is currently in an extreme overbought position. A continuation higher would expose the $80.00 handle. Initial support lies at $71.50, the Apr 2 high. A firmer support is noted at today’s intraday low - at $68.49.   

GOLD TECHS: Trend Structure Remains Bullish                                   

• RES 4: $3578.0 - 2.000 proj of the Dec 19 - Feb 24 - Feb 28 swing
• RES 3: $3547.9 - 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - Apr 7 price swing
• RES 2: $3500.1 - High Apr 22 and bull trigger
• RES 1: $3444.5 - Intraday high          
• PRICE: $3428.7 @ 06:08 BST Jun 13 
• SUP 1: $3325.3/3249.9 - 20- and 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: $3204.7 - Low May 20 
• SUP 3: $3121.0 - Low May 15 and key support 
• SUP 4: $3100.0 - Round number support 

A bullish theme in Gold remains intact and this week’s gains reinforce bullish conditions. Medium-term trend signals are bullish too - moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Resistance at $3435.6, the May 7 high, has been pierced. A clear break of this level would strengthen bullish conditions and open $3500.1, the Apr 22 all-time high. Initial key support to monitor is $3255.2, the 50-day EMA.       

SILVER TECHS: Bull Wave Remains Intact                 

• RES 4: $37.478 - High Mar 2012  
• RES 3: $37.195 - 2.236 proj of the May 15 - 22 high / low price swing
• RES 2: $36.987 - 1.000 proj of the Apr 7 - 25 - May 15 price swing
• RES 1: $36.886 - High Jun 9 
• PRICE: $36.065 @ 08:09 BST Jun 13 
• SUP 1: $34.688 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $33.638/31.651 - 50-day EMA / Low May 15
• SUP 3: $30.915/28.351 - Low Apr 11 / 7 and the bear trigger  
• SUP 4: $27.686 - Low Sep 6 ‘24  

A bull wave in Silver remains in play and recent strong gains plus Monday’s extension, reinforce this condition. The metal has traded through a resistance at $34.903, the Oct 23 ‘24 high and a key bull trigger. The clear break of it marks an important medium-term bullish development. Sights are on $36.987 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial support to watch lies at $34.688, the 20-day EMA.