MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Oil Bull Cycle Remains Intact

Price Signal Summary - Bull Cycle In Oil Extends    

• In the equity space, a bear threat in the S&P E-Minis contract remains present. The reversal lower from the Dec 26 high, highlights the end of the Dec 20 - 26 correction. Attention is on 5866.00, Dec 20 low and a key short-term support. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bearish theme. Initial firm resistance is 6107.50, the Dec 26 high. A breach of this hurdle would highlight a bull reversal.
• A bull cycle in the EUROSTOXX 50 futures contract remains intact and price is trading at its recent highs. This week’s rally highlights a reversal of the recent corrective pullback. Resistance at 5040.00, the Dec 9 high, has been pierced. A clear break of this hurdle would open 5068.13, the 0.764 projection of the Nov 21 - Dec 9 - 20 price swing. On the downside, initial firm support lies at 4933.29, the 50-day EMA.              
• In FX, the trend condition in EURUSD remains bearish. The Jan 2 sharp sell-off reinforces the bear theme and note too that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. The 20-day EMA, at 1.0387, has been pierced. The next resistance to watch is 1.0458, the Dec 30 high. The bear trigger has been defined at 1.0226, the Jan 2 low. The trend condition in GBPUSD remains bearish and this week’s sharp sell-off reinforces the bear trend - the break lower confirms a resumption of the downtrend. Sights are on 1.2226 next, 0.618 projection of the Sep 26 - Nov 22 - Dec 6 price swing. Initial firm trend resistance has been defined at 1.2576, the Jan 7 high. USDJPY bulls remain in the driver’s seat and the pair is holding on to its recent gains. This week’s fresh cycle high, reinforces the bullish condition. The recent breach of 156.75, the Nov 15 high, confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and has paved the way for a move towards 159.45, the Jul 12 high. Initial firm support is 156.60, the 20-day EMA.  
• On the commodity front, recent gains in Gold appear corrective - for now. However, the yellow metal remains firm and scope is seen for a continuation higher near-term. A stronger recovery would open $2726.2, the Dec 12 high and an important short-term resistance. Clearance of this level would be a bullish development. On the downside, a reversal lower would expose $2583.6, the Dec 19 low. Initial support is at $2640.2, the 50-day EMA. In the oil space, the trend structure in WTI futures remains bullish and today’s gains reinforce current conditions. The stronger reversal to the upside has exposed key short-term resistance at $76.41, the Oct 8 high. Clearance of this hurdle would strengthen a bull theme and open $77.41, the Jul 18 high. On the downside, a reversal lower would expose the 20-day EMA, at $71.57. This average is seen as a key short-term support.         
• In the FI space, the trend in Bund futures remains bearish and this week’s extension reinforces this theme. The contract has breached key support at 132.00, the Nov 6 low. The clear break of this level strengthens a bearish theme. Sights are on the 131.00 handle next. Key short-term resistance is at 133.48, the 20-day EMA. Initial resistance is 132.57, the Jan 6 high. The trend condition in Gilt futures is unchanged, it remains bearish and this week’s fresh cycle lows reinforces current conditions. Yesterday’s initial move lower reinforces bearish conditions and this week’s sell-off highlights an acceleration of the trend. Sights are on the 88.87 next, a 2.764 projection of the Dec 20 -27 - Jan 2 price swing. Initial resistance is at 91.58, Wednesday’s intraday high. Resistance at the 20-day EMA, is at 92.39. The EMA is seen as an important hurdle for bulls.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE    

EURUSD TECHS: Trend Outlook Remains Bearish  

• RES 4: 1.0825 High Nov 7 
• RES 3: 1.0630 High Dec 06
• RES 2: 1.0513 50-day EMA 
• RES 1: 1.0437/58 High Jan 6 / High Dec 30 
• PRICE: 1.0286 @ 06:10 GMT Jan 10
• SUP 1: 1.0226 Low Jan 2
• SUP 2: 1.0201 61.8% of the Sep ‘22 - Jul ‘23 bull leg
• SUP 3: 1.0151 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 4: 1.0138 1.764 proj of the Sep 25 - Oct 23 - Nov 5 price swing    

The trend condition in EURUSD remains bearish and short-term gains are considered corrective. The Jan 2 sharp sell-off reinforces the bear theme and note too that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. The 20-day EMA, at 1.0387, has been pierced. The next resistance to watch is 1.0458, the Dec 30 high. The bear trigger has been defined at 1.0226, the Jan 2 low.  

GBPUSD TECHS: Bear Cycle Remains In Play 

• RES 4: 1.2672 50-day EMA
• RES 3: 1.2607 High Dec 30     
• RES 2: 1.2533/2576 20-day EMA / High Jan 7 
• RES 1: 1.2367 High Jan 9 
• PRICE: 1.2280 @ 06:17 GMT Jan 10
• SUP 1: 1.2239 Low Jan 9 
• SUP 2: 1.2226 0.618 proj of the Sep 26 - Nov 22 - Dec 6 price swing
• SUP 3: 1.2187 Low Nov 10 2023  
• SUP 4: 1.2087 0.764 proj of the Sep 26 - Nov 22 - Dec 6 price swing    

The trend condition in GBPUSD remains bearish and this week’s sharp sell-off reinforces the bear trend - the break lower confirms a resumption of the downtrend. The move down also marks an extension of the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Sights are on 1.2226 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm trend resistance has been defined at 1.2576, the Jan 7 high.    

EURGBP TECHS: Resistance Cleared             

• RES 4: 0.8471 61.8% retracement of the Aug 8 - Dec 19 downleg
• RES 3: 0.8448 High Oct 31 and reversal trigger   
• RES 2: 0.8424 50.0% retracement of the Aug 8 - Dec 19 downleg
• RES 1: 0.8407 High Jan 9 
• PRICE: 0.8376 @ 06:28 GMT Jan 10
• SUP 1: 0.8315/8284 50-day EMA / Low Jan 8 
• SUP 2: 0.8263 Low Dec 31
• SUP 3: 0.8223 Low Dec 19 
• SUP 4: 0.8203 Low Mar 7 2022 and a major support

EURGBP traded sharply higher Wednesday and initially on Thursday. The cross has breached resistance at the 50-day EMA, at 0.8311, and cleared the December highs. This undermines the recent bearish theme and suggests scope for a stronger short-term recovery. Note too that 0.8376, the Nov 19 high and a key resistance, has also been cleared. This opens 0.8424, a Fibonacci retracement. Support at the 50-day EMA is at 0.8315.  

USDJPY TECHS: Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat           

• RES 4: 160.00 Round number resistance   
• RES 3: 159.45 High Jul 12
• RES 2: 159.26 0.618 proj of the Sep 16 - Nov 15 - Dec 3 price swing  
• RES 1: 158.55 High Jan 8  
• PRICE: 158.35 @ 06:43 GMT Jan 10
• SUP 1: 156.60 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 154.44 Low Dec 19  
• SUP 3: 154.47 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 153.16 Low Dec 17  

USDJPY bulls remain in the driver’s seat and the pair is holding on to its recent gains. This week’s fresh cycle high, reinforces the bullish condition. The recent breach of 156.75, the Nov 15 high, confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and has paved the way for a move towards 159.45, the Jul 12 high. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend. Initial firm support is 156.60, the 20-day EMA.     

EURJPY TECHS: Resistance Remains Exposed                 

• RES 4: 166.34 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 166.10 High Nov 6  
• RES 2: 165.04 High Nov 15 and a key short-term resistance
• RES 1: 164.55 High Jan 7
• PRICE: 162.85 @ 07:13 GMT Jan 10 
• SUP 1: 162.33/160.91 50-day EMA / Low Jan 2    
• SUP 2: 160.54 50.0% retracement of the Dec 3 - 30 bull cycle   
• SUP 3: 159.51 61.8% retracement of the Dec 3 - 30 bull cycle
• SUP 4: 158.67 Low Dec 11

EURJPY has traded higher this week but remains below the Dec 30 high. The recent move down appears corrective and a bullish short-term condition is intact. The next support to watch lies at 160.54, 50.0% of the Dec 3 - 30 bull cycle. The 61.8% level is at 159.51. A resumption of gains would open 165.04, the Nov 15 high. Clearance of this hurdle would expose 166.69, the Oct 31 high and a major resistance.         

AUDUSD TECHS: Bearish Trend Sequence   

• RES 4: 0.6471 High Dec 9
• RES 3: 0.6374 50-day EMA               
• RES 2: 0.6341 High Dec 18   
• RES 1: 0.6257/0.6302 20-day EMA / High Jan 6
• PRICE: 0.6191 @ 07:50 GMT Jan 10 
• SUP 1: 0.6172 Low Jan 9  
• SUP 3: 0.6158 1.236 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
• SUP 3: 0.6100 Round number support 
• SUP 4: 0.6045 1.500 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing

A bearish trend condition in AUDUSD remains intact. The pair has pulled back from Monday’s high and has pierced support at 0.6179, the Dec 31 low. Recent weakness maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Note that MA studies are in a bear-mode position too. Scope is seen for an extension towards 0.6158 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance to monitor is 0.6257, 20-day EMA. The 50-day EMA is at 0.6374.  

USDCAD TECHS: Trend Needle Points North   

• RES 4: 1.4674 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 1.4539 3.382 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
• RES 2: 1.4508 3.236 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
• RES 1: 1.4467 High Dec 19 
• PRICE: 1.4407 @ 07:54 GMT Jan 10 
• SUP 1: 1.4337/4280 20-day EMA / Low Jan 6  
• SUP 2: 1.4232 Low Dec 17 
• SUP 3: 1.4181 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 1.4011 Low Dec 5

The trend set-up in USDCAD remains bullish and the recent move down is considered corrective. The latest pause in the uptrend appears to be a flag formation - a bullish continuation signal. Note too that MA studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on 1.4508 next, a Fibonacci projection level. 1.4337, the 20-day EMA, has been pierced. A clear break of the average would open 1.4181, the 50-day EMA.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (H5) Bear Cycle Extends   

• RES 4: 137.75 Low Dec 10            
• RES 3: 135.15 High Dec 13 
• RES 2: 133.69 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 132.57/133.48 High Jan 6 / 3                
• PRICE: 131.20 @ 05:43 GMT Jan 10
• SUP 1: 131.00 Round number support     
• SUP 2  130.58 Low Nov 6 ‘24 and a key support cont)             
• SUP 3: 130.44 Low Jul 5 ‘24 (cont)
• SUP 4: 130.23 Low Jul 3 ‘24 (cont)     

The trend in Bund futures remains bearish and this week’s extension reinforces this theme. The contract has breached key support at 132.00, the Nov 6 low. The clear break of this level strengthens a bearish theme. Sights are on the 131.00 handle next. Key short-term resistance is at 133.48, the 20-day EMA. Gains would be considered corrective and allow an oversold condition to unwind.                      

BOBL TECHS: (H5) Southbound   

• RES 4: 118.640 Low Dec 6        
• RES 3: 118.520 High Dec 13   
• RES 2: 117.806 20-day EMA 
• RES 1: 117.350 High Jan 6                            
• PRICE: 116.710 @ 10:51 GMT Jan 10  
• SUP 1: 116.700 Low Jul 26 2024 (cont)              
• SUP 2: 116.471 76.4% of the Jun 10 - Oct 1 2024 price swing   
• SUP 3: 116.320 Low Jul 22 2024 (cont) 
• SUP 4: 116.210 Low Jul 12 2024      

A bear cycle in Bobl futures remains intact and this week’s extension, reinforces the bearish set-up. Price has recently traded through 117.723, the 76.4% retracement of the Nov 6 - Dec 2 bull cycle. Note too that key support at 117.180, the Nov 6 low, has been cleared. A clear break strengthens the current downtrend and opens 116.700 (tested), the Jul 26 2024 low (cont). Key short-term resistance is 117.806, the 20-day EMA.         

SCHATZ TECHS: (H5) Fresh Cycle Low             

• RES 4: 107.365 High Dec 12
• RES 3: 107.170 High Dec 20  
• RES 2: 106.946 20-day EMA 
• RES 1: 106.785 High Jan 6     
• PRICE: 106.630 @ 06:10 GMT Jan 10   
• SUP 1: 106.590 Intraday low            
• SUP 2: 106.538 2.236 proj of the Dec 2 - 6 - 12 price swing
• SUP 3: 106.485 Low Nov 5 (cont) 
• SUP 4: 106.375 Low Oct 31  (cont) and a key support

The current bear cycle in Schatz futures remains intact and recent weakness, including this week’s fresh cycle low, reinforces this theme. The Jan 3 sell-off confirmed a resumption of the bear leg and sights are on 106.538, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance is seen at 106.946, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of it would highlight a potential reversal. Short-term gains would be considered corrective, allowing an oversold condition to unwind.                                    

GILT TECHS: (H5) Trend Needle Points South        

• RES 4: 92.88 High Jan 2 
• RES 3: 92.39 20-day EMA 
• RES 2: 92.13 High Jan 7 
• RES 1: 91.58 High Jan 8              
• PRICE: 90.13 @ Close Jan 9 
• SUP 1: 89.00 Low Jan 9                           
• SUP 2: 88.87 2.764 proj of the Dec 20 -27 - Jan 2 price swing  
• SUP 3: 88.53 3.000 proj of the Dec 20 -27 - Jan 2 price swing
• SUP 4: 88.19 3.236 proj of the Dec 20 -27 - Jan 2 price swing

The trend condition in Gilt futures is unchanged, it remains bearish and this week’s fresh cycle lows reinforces current conditions. Yesterday’s initial move lower reinforces bearish conditions and this week’s sell-off highlights an acceleration of the trend. Sights are on the 88.87 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial resistance is at 91.58, Wednesday’s intraday high. Resistance at the 20-day EMA, is at 92.39. The EMA is seen as an important hurdle for bulls.                    

 BTP TECHS: (H5) Southbound                        

• RES 4: 123.34 High Dec 11 and key resistance     
• RES 3: 122.85 High Dec 12  
• RES 2: 121.94 High Dec 13  
• RES 1: 119.65/120.17 High Jan 6 / 20-day EMA   
• PRICE: 118.22 @ 10:49 GMT Jan 10 
• SUP 1: 118.12 Intraday low          
• SUP 2: 118.00 Round number support  
• SUP 3: 117.40 Low Nov 7 and a key support
• SUP 4: 116.59 76.4% retracement of the Jun - Dec ‘24 bull cycle     

The current bear cycle in BTP futures remains in play and this week’s move down reinforces current conditions. The contract has recently breached the 20-day EMA and this week has cleared 118.80, the 76.4% retracement of the Nov 7 - Dec 11 bull cycle. The breach of this level strengthens the bearish theme. Key resistance and the bull trigger has been defined at 123.34, the Dec 11 high. Initial firm resistance is seen at 120.17, the 20-day EMA. 

US‌‌ ‌‌10YR‌‌ ‌‌FUTURE‌‌ ‌‌TECHS:‌‌ (H5) Bearish Trend Sequence Intact   

• RES 4: 111-20+ High 6 and the bull trigger 
• RES 3: 110-25   High Dec 12   
• RES 2: 109-31+ 50-day EMA  
• RES 1: 108-31/06 20-day EMA / High Dec 31 
• PRICE:‌‌ 108-02 @ 11:13 GMT Jan 10
• SUP 1: 107-28+ Low Jan 8  
• SUP 2: 107-21+ Low May 29 ‘24 (cont)   
• SUP 3: 107-19+ 1.618 proj of the Oct 1 - 14 - 16 price swing
• SUP 4: 107-04   Low Apr 25 ‘24 and a key support

The trend condition in Treasury futures is unchanged and remains bearish. This week’s fresh cycle low confirms a resumption of the downtrend. Price has traded through the 108-00 handle exposing 107-19+ next, a Fibonacci projection. Note too that moving average studies remain in a bear-mode position highlighting a dominant downtrend. Key short-term resistance is seen at 109-01+, the 20-day EMA.            

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (H5) Trading At Its Recent Highs             

• RES 4: 5097.00 High Oct 14
• RES 3: 5080.00 High Oct 15      
• RES 2: 5068.13 0.764 proj of the Nov 21 - Dec 9 - 20 price swing   
• RES 1: 5054.00 High Jul 8          
• PRICE: 5027.00 @ 06:24 GMT Jan 10  
• SUP 1: 4933.29 50-day EMA       
• SUP 2: 4829.00 Low Dec 20 and key short-term support     
• SUP 3: 4800.87 76.4% retracement of the Nov 21 - Dec 9 bull cycle 
• SUP 4: 4775.00 Low Nov 29 

A bull cycle in the Eurostoxx 50 futures contract remains intact and price is trading at its recent highs. This week’s rally highlights a reversal of the recent corrective pullback. Resistance at 5040.00, the Dec 9 high, has been pierced. A clear break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the bull cycle that started on Nov 21 last year and open 5068.13, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, initial firm support lies at 4933.29, the 50-day EMA.       

E-MINI S&P: (H5) Support Remains Exposed    

• RES 4: 6194.19 1.236 proj of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 - Sep 9 price swing    
• RES 3: 6178.75 High Dec 6 and key resistance   
• RES 2: 6163.75 High Dec 16  
• RES 1: 6068.25/6107.50 High Jan 6 / High Dec 26         
• PRICE: 5943.75 @ 07:21 GMT Jan 10 
• SUP 1: 5911.25/5866.00 Low Jan 3 / Dec 20       
• SUP 2: 5811.65 38.2% retracement of the Aug 5 - Dec 6 bull leg  
• SUP 3: 5784.00 Low Nov 4 
• SUP 4: 5698.25 50.0% retracement of the Aug 5 - Dec 6 bull leg

A bear threat in the S&P E-Minis contract remains present. The reversal lower from the Dec 26 high, highlights the end of the Dec 20 - 26 correction. Attention is on 5866.00, Dec 20 low and a key short-term support. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bearish theme. Initial firm resistance is 6107.50, the Dec 26 high. A breach of this hurdle would highlight a bull reversal and open key resistance at 6178.75, the Dec 6 high.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (H5) Bull Cycle Extension                   

• RES 4: $83.79 - High Jul 5 and a key resistance 
• RES 3: $81.35 - High Jul 18 
• RES 2: $80.03 - 76.4% of Jul 5 - Sep 10 bear leg
• RES 1: $79.50 - High Oct and key resistance        
• PRICE: $78.84 @ 11:04 GMT Jan 10 
• SUP 1: $75.68 - Low Jan 9    
• SUP 2: $74.62 - 20-day EMA 
• SUP 3: $71.59 - Low Dec 20
• SUP 4: $70.52 - Low Dec 6 

Brent futures remain in an uptrend and the contract is trading higher today, confirming once again, a resumption of the current bull cycle. The rally exposes the next key resistance at $79.50, the Oct 7 high. Clearance of this level would strengthen the bullish theme. On the downside, key short-term support is seen at $74.62, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of this average would highlight a possible reversal.            

WTI TECHS: (G5) Approaching The Next Key Resistance               

• RES 4: $79.59 - High Jul 5 ‘24 and a key resistance 
• RES 3: $77.90 - High Dec 12
• RES 2: $77.41 - High Jul 18
• RES 1: $76.41 - High Oct 8 and the bull trigger   
• PRICE: $75.95 @ 11:10 GMT Jan 10 
• SUP 1: $72.84 - Low Jan 9    
• SUP 2: $71.57 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: $68.42 - Low Dec 20 
• SUP 4: $66.71 - Low Dec 6

The trend structure in WTI futures remains bullish and today’s gains reinforce current conditions. The stronger reversal to the upside has exposed key short-term resistance at $76.41, the Oct 8 high. Clearance of this hurdle would strengthen a bull theme and open $77.41, the Jul 18 high. On the downside, a reversal lower would expose the 20-day EMA, at $71.57. This average is seen as a key short-term support.             

GOLD TECHS: Trading At This Week’s High      

• RES 4: $2762.3 - High Nov 1  
• RES 3: $2730.4 - 76.4% retracement of the Oct 31 - Nov 14 bear leg
• RES 2: $2726.2 - High Dec 12    
• RES 1: $2692.8 - High Dec 13     
• PRICE: $2676.1 @ 07:25 GMT Jan 10
• SUP 1: $2640.5 - 50-day EMA   
• SUP 2: $2596.2/2583.6 - Low Dec 30 / 19
• SUP 3: $2564.4 - Low Nov 18 
• SUP 4: $2536.9 - Low Nov 14 and a key support 

Recent gains in Gold appear corrective - for now. However, the yellow metal is holding on to this week’s gains and scope is seen for a continuation higher near-term. A stronger recovery would open $2726.2, the Dec 12 high and an important short-term resistance. Clearance of this level would be a bullish development. On the downside, a reversal lower would expose $2583.6, the Dec 19 low. Initial support is at $2640.2, the 50-day EMA.                 

SILVER TECHS: MA Studies Remain In A Bear-Mode Condition                 

• RES 4: $34.903 - High Oct 23 and the bull trigger  
• RES 3: $33.125 - High Nov 1 
• RES 2: $32.338 - High Dec 12 and a key resistance  
• RES 1: $30.460 - 50-day EMA                             
• PRICE: $30.241 @ 07:58 GMT Jan 10  
• SUP 1: $28.748 - Low Dec 19        
• SUP 2: $28.446 - 76.4% retracement of the Aug 8 - Oct 23 bull cycle 
• SUP 3: $27.686 - Low Sep 6 
• SUP 4: $26.451 - Low Aug 8  

A bear cycle in Silver that started Oct 23 remains in play - for now - and recent gains appear corrective. The metal has recently breached support at $29.642, the Nov 28 low. The break lower opens $28.446, a Fibonacci retracement. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position highlighting a dominant downtrend. Key resistance has been defined at $32.338, the Dec 12 high. A break of this level would signal a reversal.