MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - M/T AUD Bear Condition Persists

Price Signal Summary – M/T Bearish AUD Condition Persists

• The S&P E-Minis contract initially traded lower Monday extending the pullback from last Friday’s high. Key short-term support to watch lies at 5961.75, the Jan 16 low (pierced). A bull cycle in the Eurostoxx 50 futures contract remains intact and the move lower from last Friday’s high, is considered corrective. A deeper retracement would allow an overbought trend condition to unwind.
• A bull cycle in GBPUSD remains in play. The pair has cleared the 20-day EMA, marking an extension of the reversal that started Jan 13. Attention is on the 50-day EMA, at 1.2520 and an important resistance. The primary trend condition in USDJPY remains bullish, however, Monday’s move down highlights a stronger short-term bear cycle. The pair has breached two important support points; 155.12, the 50-day EMA, and 155.13, a trendline drawn from the Sep 16 ‘24 high. A medium-term bearish trend condition in AUDUSD remains intact and recent gains have stalled at resistance around the 50-day EMA, at 0.6325. The reversal lower suggests the possible end of the correction between Jan 13 - 24. 
• Despite yesterday’s pullback, Gold is trading closer to its recent highs. A bull cycle is in play and the breach of resistance at 2726.2, the Dec 12 high, reinforces current conditions. Sights are on $2790.1, the Oct 31 all-time high. Monday’s move lower in WTI futures marks an extension of the current corrective cycle. The 20-day EMA has been breached and attention turns to support around the 50-day EMA, at $72.16.
• The pullback from recent highs in Bund futures appears corrective and a short-term bull cycle remains in play - for now. The Jan 15 rally highlighted a reversal signal - a bullish engulfing candle. The medium-term trend condition in Gilt futures remains bearish. However, recent gains continue to highlight a corrective phase and signal scope for a continuation higher near-term. The contract has traded through the 20-day EMA, at 91.76.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE    

EURUSD TECHS: Support Lies At The 20-Day EMA     

• RES 4: 1.0696 50.0% retracement of the Sep 25 - Jan 13 bear leg 
• RES 3: 1.0630 High Dec 06
• RES 2: 1.0574 38.2% retracement of the Sep 25 - Jan 13 bear leg
• RES 1: 1.0533 High Jan 27
• PRICE: 1.0438 @ 05:48 GMT Jan 28
• SUP 1: 1.0388 20-day EMA  
• SUP 2: 1.0260 Low Jan 15 
• SUP 3: 1.0178 Low Jan 13 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 4: 1.0138 1.764 proj of the Sep 25 - Oct 23 - Nov 5 price swing  

EURUSD remains in a short-term bull cycle - a correction - and continues to trade closer to its recent highs. The pair has pierced the 50-day EMA, at 1.0459. A clear break of it would strengthen short-term bullish conditions and signal scope for a continuation higher near-term. Sights are on 1.0574, a Fibonacci retracement point. Initial support to watch is 1.0388, the 20-day EMA. A move through the EMA would signal a possible reversal.   

GBPUSD TECHS: Tests Resistance At The 50-Day EMA    

• RES 4: 1.2667 High Dec 19 
• RES 3: 1.2610 38.2% retracement of the Sep 26 ‘24 - Jan 13 swing    
• RES 2: 1.2576 High Jan 7
• RES 1: 1.2520/23 50-day EMA / High Jan 27 
• PRICE: 1.2445 @ 06:00 GMT Jan 28
• SUP 1: 1.2387/2294 20-day EMA / Low Jan 23  
• SUP 2: 1.2229 Low Jan 21
• SUP 3: 1.2100 Low Jan 10 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 4: 1.2087 0.764 proj of the Sep 26 - Nov 22 - Dec 6 price swing    

A bull cycle in GBPUSD remains in play. The pair has cleared the 20-day EMA, marking an extension of the reversal that started Jan 13. Attention is on the 50-day EMA, at 1.2520 and an important resistance. Clearance of the average would highlight a stronger bull cycle. Medium-term trend signals are unchanged, they  remain bearish. A reversal lower would refocus attention on 1.2100, the Jan 10 low and bear trigger.        

EURGBP TECHS: Pierces The 20-Day EMA             

• RES 4: 0.8545 High Aug 21  
• RES 3: 0.8530 76.4% retracement of the Aug 8 - Dec 19 downleg 
• RES 2: 0.8494 High Aug 26 ‘24
• RES 1: 0.8474 High Jan 20 and the bull trigger 
• PRICE: 0.8386 @ 06:19 GMT Jan 28
• SUP 1: 0.8387/80 20-day EMA / Intraday low    
• SUP 2: 0.8356 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 0.8284 Low Jan 8
• SUP 4: 0.8263 Low Dec 31

A bull cycle in EURGBP remains intact and the latest pullback is considered corrective. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant short-term uptrend. Support levels to watch are; 0.8387, the 20-day EMA (pierced), and 0.8356, the 50-day EMA. A clear breach of this support zone would highlight a stronger reversal. The bull trigger is 0.8474, the Jan 20 high. A move through this level would resume the uptrend. 

USDJPY TECHS: Short-Term Bear Threat Remains Present  

• RES 4: 159.45 High Jul 12  
• RES 3: 159.26 0.618 proj of the Sep 16 - Nov 15 - Dec 3 price swing
• RES 2: 158.08/87 High Jan 15 / 10 and the bull trigger 
• RES 1: 156.75 High Jan 23       
• PRICE: 155.68 @ 06:35 GMT Jan 28
• SUP 1: 153.72/34 Low Jan 27 / Low Dec 18  
• SUP 2: 152.55 61.8% retracement of the Dec 3 - Jan 10 bull leg
• SUP 3: 151.81 Low Dec 12   
• SUP 4: 151.06 76.4% retracement of the Dec 3 - Jan 10 bull leg   

The primary trend condition in USDJPY remains bullish, however, Monday’s move down highlights a stronger short-term bear cycle. The pair has breached two important support points; 155.12, the 50-day EMA, and 155.13, a trendline drawn from the Sep 16 ‘24 high. This opens 152.55, a Fibonacci retracement point. Initial firm resistance has been defined at 156.75, the Jan 23 high. Clearance of this level would be a bullish development.        

EURJPY TECHS: Bullish Outlook                   

• RES 4: 165.43 High Nov 8 
• RES 3: 164.90 High Dec 30 and a key short-term resistance  
• RES 2: 164.55 High Jan 7
• RES 1: 164.08 High Jan 24
• PRICE: 162.60 @ 06:52 GMT Jan 28 
• SUP 1: 160.96/159.73 Low Jan 21 / 17 and key short-term support     
• SUP 2: 159.51 61.8% retracement of the Dec 3 - 30 bull cycle   
• SUP 3: 158.67 Low Dec 11
• SUP 4: 158.24 76.4% retracement of the Dec 3 - 30 bull cycle

Despite the latest pullback, EURJPY is trading closer to last week’s highs. Recent gains resulted in breach of 162.89, the Jan 15 high. This undermines a recent bearish theme and highlights scope for an extension higher near term, towards key resistance at 164.90, the Dec 30 high. Key short-term support has been defined at 159.73, the Jan 17 low. A reversal lower and a break of this level would reinstate the recent bearish threat.             

AUDUSD TECHS: Resistance At The 50-Day EMA Holds Firm     

• RES 4: 0.6441 38.2% retracement of the Sep 30 - Jan 13 downleg  
• RES 3: 0.6429 High Dec 12               
• RES 2: 0.6384 High Dec 13  
• RES 1: 0.6325/6331 50-day EMA / High Jan 24
• PRICE: 0.6252 @ 07:58 GMT Jan 28 
• SUP 1: 0.6209 Low Jan 21     
• SUP 3: 0.6165/31 Low Jan 17 / 13 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.6100 Round number support
• SUP 4: 0.6045 1.500 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing

A medium-term bearish trend condition in AUDUSD remains intact and recent gains have stalled at resistance around the 50-day EMA, at 0.6325. The reversal lower suggests the possible end of the correction between Jan 13 - 24. A continuation lower would open 0.6131, the Jan 13 low and the bear trigger. On the upside, a clear breach of the 50-day average is required to signal scope for a stronger recovery.  

USDCAD TECHS: Key Directional Triggers Defined  

• RES 4: 1.4654 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 1.4564 3.500 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
• RES 2: 1.4539 3.382 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
• RES 1: 1.4516 High Jan 21  
• PRICE: 1.4404 @ 08:06 GMT Jan 28 
• SUP 1: 1.4261 Low Jan 20
• SUP 2: 1.4253 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.4120 Low Dec 11 
• SUP 4: 1.4011 Low Dec 5

USDCAD is trading inside a range. Recent price action highlights resistance at 1.4516, the Jan 21 low, and support at 1.4261, the Jan 20 low. Both levels represent important short-term directional triggers. The trend condition is bullish and a clear breach of 1.4516 would confirm a resumption of the bull cycle. For bears, a move through 1.4261 and 1.4253, the 50-day EMA, would instead highlight a possible reversal. 

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (H5) Corrective Bull Cycle Remains In Play     

• RES 4: 133.86 High Jan 2              
• RES 3: 133.17 50-day EMA 
• RES 2: 132.57 High Jan 6
• RES 1: 132.10/22 20-day EMA / High Jan 22                 
• PRICE: 131.52 @ 05:26 GMT Jan 28
• SUP 1: 131.00 Low Jan 16 / 24        
• SUP 2  131.00/130.28 Low Jan 16 / Low Jan 15 and the bear trigger           
• SUP 3: 130.44 Low Jul 5 ‘24 (cont)
• SUP 4: 130.23 Low Jul 3 ‘24 (cont)      

The pullback from recent highs in Bund futures appears corrective and a short-term bull cycle remains in play - for now. The Jan 15 rally highlighted a reversal signal - a bullish engulfing candle. It continues to suggest scope for a corrective phase that is allowing an oversold trend condition to unwind. Sights are on 132.10, the 20-day EMA. A clear breach of the average would strengthen the bullish theme. The bear trigger is 130.28, the Jan 15 low.                       

BOBL TECHS: (H5) Monitoring Resistance    

• RES 4: 117.820 High Jan 3          
• RES 3: 117.627 50-day EMA    
• RES 2: 117.490 Low Dec 30  
• RES 1: 117.133/180 20-day EMA / High Jan 22                            
• PRICE: 116.800 @ 05:37 GMT Jan 28  
• SUP 1: 116.550/280 Low Jan 24 / Low Jan 14 / 15 and bear trigger                
• SUP 2: 116.210 Low Jul 12 2024 (cont) 
• SUP 3: 115.980 Low Jul 11 ‘24 (cont)
• SUP 4: 115.745 1.50 proj of the Oct 1 - 31 - Dec 2 ‘24 price swing     

A short-term bullish corrective phase in Bobl futures is in play - for now - despite the pullback from its recent highs. The Jan 15 rally highlighted a reversal and the start of the correction. An extension higher would allow an oversold trend condition to unwind. Key short-term resistance is seen at 117.133, the 20-day EMA. On the downside, a break of 116.280, Jan 14 / 15 low, would resume the downtrend.          

SCHATZ TECHS: (H5) Resistance Remains Intact              

• RES 4: 107.065 High Jan 2
• RES 3: 106.965 High Jan 3  
• RES 2: 106.695 High Jan 21 / 22
• RES 1: 106.692 20-day EMA      
• PRICE: 106.545 @ 05:35 GMT Jan 28   
• SUP 1: 106.450/435 Low Jan 24 / 15 and the bear trigger             
• SUP 2: 106.375 Low Oct 31  (cont) and a key support
• SUP 3: 106.342 2.764 proj of the Dec 2 - 6 - 12 price swing
• SUP 4: 106.255 3.000 proj of the Dec 2 - 6 - 12 price swing

A medium-term bear cycle in Schatz futures remains intact and recent gains appear corrective. The Jan 15 recovery highlighted a short-term reversal and the start of the corrective phase. Key near-term resistance at 106.692, the 20-day EMA, remains intact for now. A break of the EMA would signal scope for a stronger bounce. 106.435, the Jan 15 low has been defined as the bear trigger. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend.                                      

GILT TECHS: (H5) Bull Cycle Remains In Play         

• RES 4: 93.64 61.8% retracement of the Dec 3 - Jan 13 bear leg  
• RES 3: 93.09 High Dec 20    
• RES 2: 92.75 50.0% retracement of the Dec 3 - Jan 13 bear leg
• RES 1: 92.68 High Jan 27               
• PRICE: 92.42 @ Close Jan 27
• SUP 1: 91.10 Low Jan 20                               
• SUP 2: 89.68/88.96 Low Jan 15 / 13 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 3: 88.87 2.764 proj of the Dec 20 -27 - Jan 2 price swing
• SUP 4: 88.53 3.000 proj of the Dec 20 -27 - Jan 2 price swing

The medium-term trend condition in Gilt futures remains bearish. However, recent gains continue to highlight a corrective phase and signal scope for a continuation higher near-term. The contract has traded through the 20-day EMA, at 91.76. The focus is on 92.75, a Fibonacci retracement point. The bear trigger has been defined at 88.96, the Jan 13 low. Initial support is at 91.10, the Jan 20 low.                      

BTP TECHS: (H5) Resistance Holds For Now                          

• RES 4: 122.85 High Dec 11     
• RES 3: 120.98 61.8% retracement of the Dec 11 - Jan 13 bear leg   
• RES 2: 120.45 High Jan 2   
• RES 1: 119.78 50-day EMA  
• PRICE: 119.07 @ Close Jan 28 
• SUP 1: 118.27/117.16 Low Jan 16 / 13 and the bear trigger          
• SUP 2: 116.59 76.4% retrace of the Jun - Dec ‘24 bull cycle (cont)
• SUP 3: 116.07 Low Jul 8 ‘24 (cont)
• SUP 4: 115.45 Low Jul 3 ‘24 (cont)     

The latest rally in BTP futures highlights a corrective phase. The 20-day EMA has been breached and this exposes the next firm resistance at 119.78, the 50-day EMA. Clearance of the 50-day average would strengthen a bullish condition. The medium-term trend condition remains bearish and the pullback from last Wednesday’s high may be an early reversal signal. The bear trigger has been defined at 117.16, the Jan 13 low.             

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (H5) Pullback Considered Corrective                 

• RES 4: 5335.43 1.618 proj of the Nov 21 - Dec 9 - 20 price swing
• RES 3: 5327.90 1.764 proj of the Dec 20 - Jan 8 - 13 price swing      
• RES 2: 5298.50 1.500 proj of the Nov 21 - Dec 9 - 20 price swing
• RES 1: 5276.00 High Jan 24          
• PRICE: 5178.00 @ 06:33 GMT Jan 27  
• SUP 1: 5144.00 Low Jan 27           
• SUP 2: 5097.39 20-day EMA    
• SUP 3: 5020.77 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 4931.00 Low Jan 13 and a key short-term support  

A bull cycle in the Eurostoxx 50 futures contract remains intact and the move lower from last Friday’s high, is considered corrective. A deeper retracement would allow an overbought trend condition to unwind. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode set-up highlighting a dominant uptrend. The first important support to watch is 5097.39, the 20-day EMA. A resumption of the uptrend would open 5298.50, a Fibonacci projection.          

E-MINI S&P: (H5) Support Remains Intact For Now          

• RES 4: 6200.00 Round number resistance   
• RES 3: 6178.75 High Dec 6 and key resistance  
• RES 2: 6163.75 High Dec 16
• RES 1: 6105.25/6162.28 High Jan 24 / 27             
• PRICE: 6047.00 @ 07:25 GMT Jan 28 
• SUP 1: 5961.75/5948.00 Low Jan 16 / 27        
• SUP 2: 5943.94 61.8% retracement of the Jan 13 - 24 bull leg 
• SUP 3: 5892.37 76.4% retracement of the Aug 5 - Dec 6 bull leg
• SUP 4: 5809.00 Low Jan 13 and a key support 

The S&P E-Minis contract initially traded lower Monday extending the pullback from last Friday’s high. Key short-term support to watch lies at 5961.75, the Jan 16 low (pierced). For now, the move down appears corrective, however, a clear breach of 5961.75 would strengthen a bearish threat and signal scope for a deeper retracement, towards 5943.94, a Fibonacci retracement. Key resistance is 6178.75, the Dec 6 high.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (H5) Approaching The 50-Day EMA                    

• RES 4: $85.85 - 1.382 proj of the Sep 10 - Oct 7 - 29 price swing    
• RES 3: $84.63 - High Apr 12 ‘24 and a key M/T resistance
• RES 2: $83.79 - High Jul 5 and a key resistance
• RES 1: $82.63 - High Jan 15           
• PRICE: $77.56 @ 07:10 GMT Jan 28 
• SUP 1: $76.01 - 50-day EMA     
• SUP 2: $71.59 - Low Dec 20
• SUP 3: $70.52 - Low Dec 6
• SUP 4: $69.75 - Low Oct 29 

Brent futures traded lower Monday, marking an extension of the current corrective cycle. The 20-day EMA has been breached and attention turns to the 50-day EMA, at $76.01. The current pullback is allowing a recent  overbought condition to unwind. A clear breach of the 50-day EMA would signal scope for a deeper retracement. A reversal higher would refocus attention on the bull trigger at $82.63, the Jan 15 high.              

WTI TECHS: (H5) Corrective Pullback Extends               

• RES 4: $83.40 - 76.4% retrace of the Jul 5 - Sep 10 bear leg (cont)    
• RES 3: $81.26 - 3.382 proj of the Nov 18 - 22 - Dec 6 price swing  
• RES 2: $80.63 - 3.236 proj of the Nov 18 - 22 - Dec 6 price swing
• RES 1: $79.48 - High Apr 12 ‘24 and a key resistance   
• PRICE: $73.62 @ 07:21 GMT Jan 28 
• SUP 1: $72.16 - 50-day EMA     
• SUP 2: $68.05 - Low Dec 20
• SUP 3: $66.55 - Low Dec 6 ‘24
• SUP 4: $65.80 - Low Oct 29 ‘24 

Monday’s move lower in WTI futures marks an extension of the current corrective cycle. The 20-day EMA has been breached and attention turns to support around the 50-day EMA, at $72.16. A clear break of the 50-day average would suggest scope for a deeper retracement. On the upside, a reversal higher would focus attention on $79.48, the Apr 12 ‘24 high and a key resistance.              

GOLD TECHS: Bull Phase Remains Intact          

• RES 4: 2817.6 - 1.236 proj of the Nov 14 - Dec 12 - 19 price swing     
• RES 3: $2800.0 - Round number resistance  
• RES 2: $2790.1 - Oct 31 ‘24 all-time high   
• RES 1: $2786.0 - HIgh Jan 24      
• PRICE: $2742.6 @ 07:24 GMT Jan 28
• SUP 1: $2702.2/2671.6 - 20- and 50-day EMA values   
• SUP 2: $2614.8/2583.6 - Low Jan 6 / Low Dec 19
• SUP 3: $2564.4 - Low Nov 18 
• SUP 4: $2536.9 - Low Nov 14 and a key support 

Despite yesterday’s pullback, Gold is trading closer to its recent highs. A bull cycle is in play and the breach of resistance at 2726.2, the Dec 12 high, reinforces current conditions. Sights are on $2790.1, the Oct 31 all-time high. A break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the primary uptrend. On the downside, the first key support to watch is $2671.6, the 50-day EMA. A reversal lower and a breach of this average would reinstate a bearish threat.

SILVER TECHS: Recent Gains Considered Corrective                     

• RES 4: $34.903 - High Oct 23 and the bull trigger  
• RES 3: $33.125 - High Nov 1 
• RES 2: $32.338 - High Dec 12 and a key resistance  
• RES 1: $31.022 - High Jan 24                              
• PRICE: $29.961 @ 08:12 GMT Jan 28  
• SUP 1: $29.509/28.748 - Low Jan 13 / Low Dec 19 and bear trigger        
• SUP 2: $28.446 - 76.4% retracement of the Aug 8 - Oct 23 bull cycle 
• SUP 3: $27.686 - Low Sep 6 
• SUP 4: $26.451 - Low Aug 8  

A bear cycle in Silver that started Oct 23 last year remains in play and recent gains are considered corrective. However, recent gains do suggest scope for a continuation higher near-term. An extension would expose key resistance at $32.338, the Dec 12 high. Clearance of this level would highlight a reversal. On the downside, support to watch is $29.509, the Jan 13 low, and $29.748, the Dec 19 low and the bear trigger.