MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - JPY Bounce Deemed Corrective

Price Signal Summary – JPY Bounce Deemed Corrective

• A bullish theme in S&P E-Minis is intact. Price remains above the 20- and 50- day EMAs. Note that recent gains signal the likely end of the corrective cycle between Oct 30 and Nov 21. A bull cycle in EUROSTOXX 50 futures remains intact. Price has recently cleared the 20- and 50-day EMAs, signalling scope for a stronger recovery. Sights are on 5742.40 next (pierced), the 76.4% retracement of the Nov 13 - 21 bear leg.
• A bull theme in GBPUSD remains intact and the pair is holding on to its recent gains. The breach of resistance around the 50-day EMA, at 1.3264, undermines a recent bearish theme and highlights a stronger reversal. Recent weakness in USDJPY is considered corrective. The deeper retracement has allowed an overbought condition to unwind. An extension lower would expose the 50-day EMA at 153.49. A strong impulsive bull wave in AUDUSD remains intact, having printed 10 consecutive sessions of higher highs. Recent gains have cleared a number of important resistance points.
• The trend needle in Gold continues to point north. The bear phase between Oct 20 and 28 appears to have been a correction and note that the recovery since Oct 28 signals the end of that corrective cycle. Short-term gains in WTI futures appear corrective - for now. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend.
• Bund futures remain in a bear-mode cycle following last week’s impulsive sell-off. The breach of 128.67, the Nov 20 low, confirms a resumption of the bear cycle that started on Oct 17. A bullish short-term cycle in Gilt futures remains intact and the pullback between Nov 27 - Dec 2 appears to have been a correction. A resumption of gains would signal scope for a climb towards resistance at 92.55, the Nov 11 high.

[CROSS ASSET] MNI Tech Trend Monitor - November Refresh

• We refresh our Global Tech Trend Monitor, adding longer-term techs for USDMXN, EURHUF, EURGBP, Bitcoin and the USD Index as well as refreshing levels for Spot Gold, Silver, USDJPY, UK Gilt Yields and the Europe Banking Stock Index (SX7E).
• See full document here: https://emedia.marketnews.com/marketnewsintl/TechTrendMonitorNov.pdf

FOREIGN EXCHANGE    

EURUSD TECHS: Bull Cycle Still In Play   

• RES 4: 1.1779 High Oct 1   
• RES 3: 1.1747 50.0% retracement of the Sep 17 - Nov 5 bear leg
• RES 2: 1.1728 High Oct 17
• RES 1: 1.1694 50.0% retracement of the Sep 17 - Nov 5 bear leg 
• PRICE: 1.1665 @ 06:18 GMT Dec 8
• SUP 1: 1.1601 20-day EMA 
• SUP 2: 1.1547 Low Nov 26
• SUP 3: 1.1491/1469 Low Nov 21
• SUP 4: 1.1469 Low Nov 5 and the bear trigger  

A bullish theme in EURUSD remains intact. Gains last week resulted in a breach of key short-term resistance at 1.1656, the Nov 13 high and a bull trigger. The move higher highlights a potential reversal and opens 1.1694 next, a Fibonacci retracement. Clearance of this retracement point would strengthen the developing bull theme. On the downside, initial support to watch is 1.1601, the 20-day EMA. A breach of the EMA would be bearish.     

GBPUSD TECHS: Holding On To Its Recent Gains     

• RES 4: 1.3471 High Oct 17   
• RES 3: 1.3452 50.0% retracement of the Sep 17 - Nov 4 bear leg 
• RES 2: 1.3416 High Oct 21
• RES 1: 1.3385 High Dec 04
• PRICE: 1.3330 @ 06:32 GMT Dec 8
• SUP 1: 1.3264 50-day EMA   
• SUP 2: 1.3226 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.3180/25 Low Dec 2 / Low Nov 26 
• SUP 4: 1.3038/10 Low Nov 20 / Low Nov 4 & 5 and the bear trigger       

A bull theme in GBPUSD remains intact and the pair is holding on to its recent gains. The breach of  resistance around the 50-day EMA, at 1.3264, undermines a recent bearish theme and highlights a stronger reversal. This paves the way for an extension towards 1.3452, a Fibonacci retracement point. Initial firm support is seen at 1.3226, the 20-day EMA. A move below this average would be a bearish development.  

EURGBP TECHS: Corrective Cycle 

• RES 4: 0.8840 High Nov 20   
• RES 3: 0.8818 High Nov 26 
• RES 2: 0.8802 High Dec 2 and a key near-term resistance 
• RES 1: 0.8772 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.8747 @ 06:56 GMT Dec 8
• SUP 1: 0.8722 Low Dec 4
• SUP 2: 0.8706 76.4% retracement of the Oct 8 - Nov 14 bull leg
• SUP 3: 0.8670 Low Oct 21   
• SUP 4: 0.8656 Low Oct 8 and a key support  

The trend set-up in EURGBP is bullish and the current bear cycle appears corrective - for now. Note that the cross has breached the 50-day EMA, currently at 0.8753. The break highlights a stronger reversal and a bear threat plus scope for a deeper retracement, towards 0.8706, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial resistance to watch is 0.8802, the Dec 2 high. A breach of this hurdle would be a bullish development.        

USDJPY TECHS: Corrective Phase Exposes The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 158.87 High Jan 10 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 158.29 2.618 projection of the Sep 17 - 26 - Oct 1 price swing
• RES 2: 158.00 Round number resistance 
• RES 1: 156.58/157.89 High Nov 28 / 20 and the bull trigger 
• PRICE: 155.19 @ 07:12 GMT Dec 8
• SUP 1: 154.35 Low Dec 5 
• SUP 2: 153.41 50-day EMA  
• SUP 3: 152.82 Low Nov 7 
• SUP 4: 151.54 Low Oct 29 

Recent weakness in USDJPY is considered corrective. The deeper retracement has allowed an overbought condition to unwind. An extension lower would expose the 50-day EMA at 153.49 and the next important support. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant medium-term uptrend. A resumption of the trend would open 158.00.

EURJPY TECHS: Bull Flag

• RES 4: 184.34 2.236 proj of the Jul 31 - Sep 29 - Oct 2 price swing
• RES 3: 183.90 Bull channel top drawn from the Feb 28 low
• RES 2: 183.07 2.000 proj of the Jul 31 - Sep 29 - Oct 2 price swing 
• RES 1: 182.01 High Nov 20 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 181.06 @ 07:17 GMT Dec 8
• SUP 1: 180.17 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 178.98/178.18 Low Nov 14 / 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 177.15 Low Nov 10
• SUP 4: 175.87 Bull channel support drawn from the Feb 28 low

EURJPY is in consolidation mode and the latest pause in the trend appears to be a flag formation - a trend continuation signal that reinforces the bull theme. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. A continuation of the trend would signal scope for a climb towards 184.00, the top of a bull channel drawn from the Feb 28 low. First key support lies at 180.17, the 20-day EMA.

AUDUSD TECHS: Bullish Impulsive Wave Intact     

• RES 4: 0.6723 High Oct 21 ‘24   
• RES 3: 0.6707 High Sep 17 and a key resistance 
• RES 2: 0.6660 High Sep 18
• RES 1: 0.6649 High Dec 5
• PRICE: 0.6637 @ 08:02 GMT Dec 8 
• SUP 1: 0.6580/6543 High Nov 13 / 20-day EMA 
• SUP 2: 0.6517 Low Nov 27 
• SUP 3: 0.6466/21 Low Nov 26 / 21 
• SUP 4: 0.6415 Low Aug 21 / 22 and a bear trigger 

A strong impulsive bull wave in AUDUSD remains intact, having printed 10 consecutive sessions of higher highs. Recent gains have cleared a number of important resistance points, strengthening a bull theme and highlighting scope for a continuation higher. 0.6640, 76.4% of the Sep 17 - Nov 21 bear leg, has been pierced This opens 0.6707, the Sep 17 high and key resistance. Key support to watch is at 0.6543, 20-day EMA.            

USDCAD TECHS: Channel Breakout 

• RES 4: 1.4140 High Nov 5 and a key resistance   
• RES 3: 1.4051 High Nov 28 
• RES 2: 1.3939/3997 Low Nov 28 / 20-day EMA  
• RES 1: 1.3888 Low Oct 29  
• PRICE: 1.3818 @ 08:10 GMT Dec 8
• SUP 1: 1.3814 Intraday low 
• SUP 2: 1.3769 61.8% retracement of the Jun 16 - Nov 6 bull cycle
• SUP 3: 1.3727 |Low Sep17 
• SUP 4: 1.3682 76.4% retracement of the Jun 16 - Nov 6 bull cycle  

A bear theme in USDCAD remains intact and Friday’s strong sell-off reinforces current conditions. The pair has breached an important support at 1.3946, the base of a bull channel drawn from the Jul 23 low. The break highlights a stronger bear cycle and signals scope for an extension towards 1.3769 next, a Fibonacci retracement point. Initial firm resistance to watch is 1.3997, 20-day EMA.  

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (H6) Fresh Cycle Low                     

• RES 4: 129.55 High Nov 26 and key resistance    
• RES 3: 129.24 High Dec 1    
• RES 2: 128.89 20-day EMA 
• RES 1: 128.40/75 Low Dec 2 / High Dec 3 and a key resistance            
• PRICE: 127.93 @ 08:20 GMT Dec 8 
• SUP 1: 127.79 Intraday low         
• SUP 2: 127.57 2.000 projection of the Nov 12 - 20 - 26 price swing   
• SUP 3: 127.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 127.34 2.236 projection of the Nov 12 - 20 - 26 price swing

Bund futures remain in a bear-mode cycle following last week’s impulsive sell-off. The breach of 128.67, the Nov 20 low, confirms a resumption of the bear cycle that started on Oct 17. The contract has traded through the 128.00 handle, paving the way for an extension towards 127.57, a Fibonacci projection. Key short-term resistance is 129.55, Nov 26 high. A corrective bounce would allow the oversold trend condition to unwind.              

BOBL TECHS: (H6) Fresh Cycle Low        

• RES 4: 117.140 High Nov 26 and key resistance       
• RES 3: 117.070 High Nov 27  
• RES 2: 116.960 High Dec 1   
• RES 1: 116.580/770 High Dec 5 / 3   
• PRICE: 116.230 @ 08:18 GMT Dec 8 
• SUP 1: 116.160 Intraday low 
• SUP 2: 116.117 2.764 proj of the Nov 6 - 14 - 26 price swing   
• SUP 3: 116.030 3.000 proj of the Nov 6 - 14 - 26 price swing
• SUP 4: 116.000 Round number support

The trend theme in Bobl futures is bearish and last week’s sell-off reinforces current conditions. The contract is again trading lower, today. Price last week breached support 116.790, the Nov 14 and 20 low. This confirmed a resumption of the downtrend that started mid-October. Sights are on 116.117 next, a Fibonacci projection. The trend is oversold, a recovery would allow this set-up to unwind. First important resistance is at 116.770, the Dec 3 high.     

SCHATZ TECHS: (H6) Southbound       

• RES 4: 106.975 High Dec 1 
• RES 3: 106.945 High Dec 3 and a key short-term resistance 
• RES 2: 106.885 Low Dec 2   
• RES 1: 106.835 Intraday high  
• PRICE: 106.805 @ 08:19 GMT Dec 8
• SUP 1: 106.780 Intraday low  
• SUP 2: 106.776 3.382 proj of the Nov 21 - 24 - 26 minor price swing
• SUP 3: 106.768 3.500 proj of the Nov 21 - 24 - 26 minor price swing
• SUP 4: 106.759 3.618 proj of the Nov 21 - 24 - 26 minor price swing 

A sharp sell-off in Schatz futures last week and a bearish start to this week’s session, confirms a continuation of a bear cycle that started mid-October.  Note that on the continuation chart, MA studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Sights are on 106.776 next, a Fibonacci projection. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 106.945, the Dec 3 high. A corrective bounce would allow an oversold trend condition to unwind.              

GILT TECHS: (H6) Trading Above Support                   

• RES 4: 92.55 High Nov 11 
• RES 3: 92.31 High Nov 12          
• RES 2: 92.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 91.93 High Nov 27      
• PRICE: 91.00 @ 08:03 Dec 8
• SUP 1: 90.87/90.53 Low Dec 2 / Low Nov 25       
• SUP 2: 90.28 Low Nov 21  
• SUP 3: 90.00 Round number support    
• SUP 4: 89.86 Low Nov 19 and the bear trigger     

A bullish short-term cycle in Gilt futures remains intact and the pullback between Nov 27 - Dec 2 appears to have been a correction. A resumption of gains would signal scope for a climb towards resistance at 92.55, the Nov 11 high. A gap in the daily chart has been filled and initial resistance to watch is 91.93, the Nov 27 high. For bears, a stronger reversal would instead refocus expose 90.53, the Nov 26 low. First support is 90.87, the Dec 2 low.              

BTP TECHS: (H6) Clear A Key Short-Term Support      

• RES 4: 121.33 High Oct 21 and a key resistance area 
• RES 3: 121.37 High Nov 13 
• RES 2: 121.24 High Nov 26 
• RES 1: 120.77 High Dec 3   
• PRICE: 120.08 @ 07:10 GMT Dec 8
• SUP 1: 120.03 Intraday low           
• SUP 2: 119.76 1.236 proj of the Nov 13 - 20 - 26 price swing  
• SUP 3: 119.30 1.618 proj of the Nov 13 - 20 - 26 price swing
• SUP 4: 119.00 Round number support 

BTP futures have traded through an important support at 120.17, the Nov 20 low. This highlights the fact that a corrective phase remains in play for now, signalling scope for a deeper short-term resistance. A resumption of weakness would open 119.76, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, initial firm resistance is seen at 120.77, the Dec 3 high. A breach of this hurdle would signal a possible reversal.                      

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (Z5) Maintains  A Bullish Theme    

• RES 4: 5858.59 1.618 proj of the Aug 1 - 22 - Sep 2 price swing       
• RES 3: 5825.00 High Nov 13 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 5800.00 Round number resistance 
• RES 1: 5742.40/5755.00 76.4% of Nov 13 - 21 bear leg / High Dec 5         
• PRICE: 5723.00 @ 06:36 GMT Dec 8
• SUP 1: 5662.26 20-day EMA     
• SUP 2: 5621.75 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 5518.00 Low Nov 25
• SUP 4: 5475.00 Low Nov 21 and the bear trigger       

A bull cycle in EUROSTOXX 50 futures remains intact. Price has recently cleared the 20- and 50-day EMAs, signalling scope for a stronger recovery. Sights are on 5742.40 next (pierced), the 76.4% retracement of the Nov 13 - 21 bear leg. Clearance of this price point would pave the way for an extension towards 5825.00, the Nov 13 high and a key resistance. First key support lies at 5621.75, the 50-day EMA.               

E-MINI S&P: (Z5) Bullish Cycle Intact                 

• RES 4: 7000.00 Psychological round number
• RES 3: 6953.75 High Oct 30 and bull trigger
• RES 2: 6918.50 High Oct 31
• RES 1: 6905.00 High Dec 5    
• PRICE: 6893.23 @ 07:44 GMT Dec 8
• SUP 1: 6797.09 20-day EMA  
• SUP 2: 6749.07 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 6674.50 Low Nov 25 
• SUP 4: 6525.00 Low Nov 21 and a key support

A bullish theme in S&P E-Minis is intact. Price remains above the 20- and 50- day EMAs. Note that recent gains signal the likely end of the corrective cycle between Oct 30 and Nov 21. A continuation higher would highlight potential for a move towards the key resistance and bull trigger at 6953.75, the Oct 30 high. Key support lies at 6525.00, the Nov 21 low. First support is at 6797.09, the 20-day EMA.      

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (G6) Resistance Remains Intact            

• RES 4: $70.86 - 76.4% retracement of the Jun 23 - Oct 17 bear leg  
• RES 3: $70.33 - High Jul 30
• RES 2: $68.86 - High Sep 26 and a key resistance 
• RES 1: $65.25 - High Oct 24 
• PRICE: $63.87 @ 07:09 GMT Dec 8 
• SUP 1: $59.93 - Low Nov 20 and the bear trigger  
• SUP 2: $58.92 - Low May 5
• SUP 3: $58.11 - Low Apr 9 and a key support
• SUP 4: $56.22 - 2.00 proj of the Jul 30 - Aug 13 - Sep 26 price swing 

Trend conditions in Brent futures are unchanged. The move down since Oct 24, continues to highlight a bearish theme. A resumption of weakness would expose key support and the bear trigger at $59.93, the Oct 20 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a continuation of the bear cycle. Key short-term resistance to watch has been defined at $65.25, the Oct 24 high. Clearance of this level would instead signal scope for a stronger correction.       

WTI TECHS: (F6) Gains Considered Corrective          

• RES 4: $71.38 - High Jun 23 and a key medium-term resistance 
• RES 3: $67.16 - High Jul 30
• RES 2: $65.33 - High Sep 26 and key resistance 
• RES 1: $61.84 - High Oct 24    
• PRICE: $60.23 @ 07:22 GMT Dec 8
• SUP 1: $55.99 - Low Oct 20 and bear trigger
• SUP 2: $55.33 - Low May 1
• SUP 3: $54.72 - Low Apr 9 and a key support
• SUP 4: $53.53 - 1.764 proj of the Jul 30 - Aug 13 - Sep 26 price swing   

Short-term gains in WTI futures appear corrective - for now. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. A resumption of the bear leg would open the key support and the bear trigger at $55.99, the Oct 20 low. Clearance of this level would resume the downtrend. Key short-term resistance to watch is $61.84, the Oct 24 high. A clear break of this hurdle would signal scope for a stronger correction.      

GOLD TECHS: Bullish Structure          

• RES 4: $4404.9 - 3.500 proj of the May 15 - Jun 16 - 30 price swing
• RES 3: $4400.0 - Round number resistance  
• RES 2: $4381.5 - High Oct 20 and bull trigger
• RES 1: $4264.7 - 76.4% retracement of the Oct 20 - 28 correction                   
• PRICE: $4216.2 @ 07:28 GMT Dec 8 
• SUP 1: $4145.3/4031.1 - 20- and 50-day EMA values 
• SUP 2: $3886.6 - Low Oct 28 and a reversal trigger
• SUP 3: $3800.00 Round number support 
• SUP 4: $3760.9 - Low Sep 29 

The trend needle in Gold continues to point north. The bear phase between Oct 20 and 28 appears to have been a correction and note that the recovery since Oct 28 signals the end of that corrective cycle. Key support to watch lies at the 50-day EMA, at $4031.1. Clearance of this EMA would signal scope for a deeper retracement. Sights are on key resistance and the bull trigger at $4381.5, the Oct 20 high.                       

SILVER TECHS: Trend Needle Points North     

• RES 4: $60.852 - 1.382 proj of the Oct 28 - Nov 13 - 21 price swing 
• RES 3: $60.000 - Psychological round number
• RES 2: $59.563 - 1.236 proj of the Oct 28 - Nov 13 - 21 price swing
• RES 1: $59.334 - High Dec 5   
• PRICE: $58.415 @ 08:20 GMT Dec 8
• SUP 1: $54.003 - 20-day EMA  
• SUP 2: $50.534/45.557 - 50-day EMA / Low Oct 28 
• SUP 3: $41.135 - Low Sep 17
• SUP 4: $38.087 - Low Aug 27  

Trend signals in Silver remain bullish - price traded to a fresh all-time high last week. This confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The move above $55.00 signals scope for a climb towards $59.563 next, a Fibonacci projection. Sights are also on the $60.00 psychological handle. Initial support lies at $54.003, the 20-day EMA.