MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - H&S Formation in GBP/USD

Price Signal Summary – Possible Head and Shoulders in GBP

• The bullish trend condition in S&P E-Minis remains unchanged. The contract has recently breached the 50-day EMA, at 5626.70. A continuation higher would expose 5837.25 next, the Mar 25 high and a bull trigger. Eurostoxx 50 futures remain in a bull cycle. The contract traded to a fresh short-term cycle high on Thursday, reinforcing bullish conditions. Note too that price has traded through 5263.01, 76.4% of the Mar 3 - Apr 7 bear leg.
• GBPUSD has traded lower this week and price has breached support at 1.3249, the 20-day EMA. This signals scope for a deeper correction. Note too that a minor head and shoulders formation has developed on the daily chart. Despite this week’s gains, the primary trend condition in USDJPY is bearish and gains since Apr 22 appear corrective. Resistance at the 50-day EMA, at 146.22, remains intact. A clear break of this EMA would highlight a possible reversal. USDCAD has recovered from its recent lows. Despite the recovery, the trend condition remains bearish and short-term gains are considered corrective. A fresh cycle low on Tuesday reinforces the bearish theme.
• A downtrend in WTI futures remains intact and short-term gains are considered corrective. The move down that started Apr 23 signals the end of the correction between Apr 9 - 23. That cycle higher allowed an oversold condition to unwind. The latest pullback in Gold appears corrective. The primary trend condition is bullish and a resumption of the bull cycle would signal scope for a climb towards the bull trigger at $3500.1, the Apr 22 high.   
• A bull cycle in Bund futures remains intact and short-term gains are considered corrective. Sights are on resistance at 132.03, the Apr 7 high and a bull trigger. The latest pullback in Gilt futures appears corrective. However, the contract is trading lower today and this has confirmed a break of support at the 50-day EMA, at 92.52. The breach signals scope for a deeper retracement and attention turns to 91.73. 

FOREIGN EXCHANGE    

EURUSD TECHS: Corrective Cycle Extends               

• RES 4: 1.1625 1.500 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - 27 price swing
• RES 3: 1.1608 High Nov 9 2021
• RES 2: 1.1440/1573 High Apr 23 / 21 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.1381 High May 2 - 6  
• PRICE: 1.1228 @ 05:56 BST May 9
• SUP 1: 1.1197 Intraday low  
• SUP 2: 1.1144 High Apr 3    
• SUP 3: 1.1075 50-day EMA and a pivot level     
• SUP 4: 1.0943 Low Apr 10  

EURUSD traded lower Thursday, extending the bear cycle that started Apr 21. The move down appears corrective and key trend signals remain bullish. MA studies are in a bull-mode position signalling a dominant uptrend. The breach of the 20- day EMA does signal scope for a deeper retracement. The next key support is 1.1075, the 50-day EMA. Initial resistance to watch is 1.1381, the May 2 - 6 high. A break would signal the end of the correction. 

GBPUSD TECHS: Head And Shoulders Reversal 

• RES 4: 1.3605 1.236 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - 7 price swing 
• RES 3: 1.3550 High Feb 24 ‘22 
• RES 2: 1.3510 1.236 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - 7 price swing 
• RES 1: 1.3444 High Apr 28 / 29 and the bull trigger  
• PRICE: 1.3235 @ 06:18 BST May 9
• SUP 1: 1.3212 Low May 5   
• SUP 2: 1.3164 Low Apr 15 
• SUP 3: 1.3074 50-day EMA 
• SUP 4: 1.2968 Low Apr 11 

GBPUSD has traded lower this week and price has breached support at 1.3249, the 20-day EMA. This signals scope for a deeper correction. Note too that a minor head and shoulders formation has developed on the daily chart reinforcing the likelihood of a corrective pullback. Key support to watch is 1.3074, the 50-day EMA. The bull trigger has been defined at 1.3444, the Apr 28 / 29 high. A break would resume the uptrend. 

EURGBP TECHS: Testing Support At The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 0.8781 2.236 proj of the Mar 3 - 11 - 28 price swing     
• RES 3: 0.8768 High Nov 20 ‘23
• RES 2: 0.8624/0.8738 High Apr 21/ High Apr 11 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 0.8557 High Apr 28 
• PRICE: 0.8484 @ 06:30 BST May 9
• SUP 1: 0.8459 Low May 8  
• SUP 2: 0.8432 Low Apr 4 
• SUP 3: 0.8415 76.4% retracement of the Mar 28 - Apr 11 rally 
• SUP 4: 0.8316 Low Mar 28 and a key support  

EURGBP has this week briefly pierced support at the 50-day EMA - at 0.8470. A clear break of the average would strengthen a bearish theme and signal scope for a deeper retracement. This would open 0.8415, a Fibonacci retracement. It is still possible the move down since Apr 11, is a correction. A clear reversal would open 0.8738, the Apr 11 high and a bull trigger. First key resistance to watch is 0.8624, the Apr 21 high.    

USDJPY TECHS: Monitoring Resistance At 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 149.28 High Apr 3  
• RES 3: 148.27 High Apr 9
• RES 2: 146.89 61.8% retracement of the Mar 28 - Apr 22 bear leg 
• RES 1: 146.22 50-day EMA and key resistance
• PRICE: 145.44 @ 06:55 BST May 9
• SUP 1: 144.15/141.97 20-day EMA / Low Apr 29   
• SUP 2: 139.79 1.382 proj of the Feb 12 - Mar 11 - 28 price swing
• SUP 3: 138.82 1.500 proj of the Feb 12 - Mar 11 - 28 price swing
• SUP 4: 138.07  Low Jul 28 ‘23

Despite this week’s gains, the primary trend condition in USDJPY is bearish and gains since Apr 22 appear corrective. Resistance at the 50-day EMA, at 146.22, remains intact. A clear break of this EMA would highlight a possible reversal. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position and continue to highlight a dominant downtrend. A resumption of the trend would open 139.79, a Fibonacci projection. First key support is 141.97, the Apr 29 low.   

EURJPY TECHS: Bullish Conditions Intact   

• RES 4: 166.11 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 165.43 High Nov 8        
• RES 2: 164.90 High Dec 30 ‘24 and a key medium-term resistance   
• RES 1: 164.63 High Mar 18 and the bull trigger 
• PRICE: 163.36 @ 07:01 GMT May 9
• SUP 1: 161.82/60 50-day EMA / Low May 6     
• SUP 2: 160.99 Low Apr 22
• SUP 3: 159.48 Low Apr 9   
• SUP 4: 158.56 61.8% retracement of the Feb 28 - May 2 bull leg   

A bullish theme in EURJPY remains intact and recent weakness is considered corrective. A print earlier this month above key resistance at 164.19, the Mar 18 high, is a positive development for bulls. A clear break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the upleg that started Feb 28, and open 164.90, the Dec 30 ‘24 high. First key support to watch is 161.82, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of it would undermine the bullish theme. 

AUDUSD TECHS: Correction Extends  

• RES 4: 0.5682 High Nov 12 ‘24  
• RES 3: 0.6550 61.8% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Apr 9 bear leg
• RES 2: 0.6528 High Nov 29 ‘24
• RES 1: 0.6515 High May 7 
• PRICE: 0.6402 @ 07:56 BST May 9
• SUP 1: 0.6371/6339 Intraday low / 50-day EMA   
• SUP 2: 0.6275 Low Apr 14    
• SUP 3: 0.6181 Low Apr 11
• SUP 4: 0.6116 Low Apr 10  

AUDUSD has pulled back from Wednesday’s high. The trend condition remains bullish and the move down is - for now - considered corrective. The recent breach of 0.6450, the Apr 29 high, confirmed a resumption of the uptrend. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting an uptrend. A resumption of the trend would open 0.6528, the Nov 29 ‘24 high. Initial key support to monitor is 0.6339, the 50-day EMA. 

USDCAD TECHS: Pressuring Resistance 

• RES 4: 1.4296 High Apr 7
• RES 3: 1.4111 High Apr 4 
• RES 2: 1.4041 50-day EMA 
• RES 1: 1.3943 Intraday high 
• PRICE: 1.3925 @ 08:05 BST May 9
• SUP 1: 1.3751 Low May 6 
• SUP 2: 1.3744 76.4% retracement of Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bull run
• SUP 3: 1.3696 Low Oct 10 2024
• SUP 4: 1.3643 Low Oct 9 ‘24 

USDCAD has recovered from its recent lows. Despite the recovery, the trend condition remains bearish and short-term gains are considered corrective. A fresh cycle low on Tuesday reinforces the bearish theme. Potential is seen for a move towards 1.3744, a Fibonacci retracement. Note that moving average studies are in a bear mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Key resistance is seen at 1.4041, the 50-day EMA.  

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M5) Trend Structure Remains Bullish                       

• RES 4: 133.90 1.236 proj of the Mar 25 - Apr 7- 9 price swing                 
• RES 3: 133.00 round number resistance      
• RES 2: 132.56 High Feb 28 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 132.03 High Apr 7 and the bull trigger                    
• PRICE: 130.80 @ 05:26 BST May 9
• SUP 1: 130.60/129.92 50-day EMA / Low Apr 11          
• SUP 2: 129.02 Low Apr 10            
• SUP 3: 128.60 Low Apr 9 and a key support   
• SUP 4: 128.47 Low Mar 28  

A bull cycle in Bund futures remains intact and short-term gains are considered corrective. Sights are on resistance at 132.03, the Apr 7 high and a bull trigger. A clear break of this level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open 132.56, the Feb 28 high. Firm support lies at 128.60, Apr 9 low. A breach of it would alter the picture. First key support is 130.60, the 50-day EMA.                                         

BOBL TECHS: (M5) Trades Through The 20-Day EMA               

• RES 4: 120.20 High Dec 12 ‘24 (cont)           
• RES 3: 120.000 Psychological round number          
• RES 2: 119.960 High Apr 7 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 119.600/780 High May 7 / High Apr 22                                     
• PRICE: 119.060 @ 05:45 BST May 9 
• SUP 1: 119.010 Low May 5      
• SUP 2: 118.723 50-day EMA  
• SUP 3: 118.060 Low Apr 10   
• SUP 4: 117.680 Low Apr 9 and a key support      

A bull cycle in Bobl futures remains intact and the steep sell-off between Apr 7 - 9 is considered corrective. Gains in early April resulted in a break of key resistance at 119.040, the Feb 28 high, strengthening bullish conditions. A resumption of gains would open the 120.000 handle. Support at the 20-day EMA, at 119.149, has been pierced following the latest pullback. A deeper correction would expose 118.723, the 50-day EMA.                   

SCHATZ TECHS: (M5) Pullback Considered Corrective                                   

• RES 4: 107.812 0.618 proj of the Mar 6 - Apr 7 - 9 price swing     
• RES 3: 107.800 Round number resistance    
• RES 2: 107.775 High Apr 7 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 107.600/735 High Apr 30 / 22                   
• PRICE: 107.370 @ 06:10 BST May 9
• SUP 1: 107.360 Low May 8 
• SUP 2: 107.252 38.2% retracement of the Mar 6 - Apr 7 bull cycle     
• SUP 3: 107.241 50-day EMA         
• SUP 4: 107.125 Low Apr 10     

The trend condition in Schatz futures remains bullish and recent weakness appears corrective. A resumption of gains would refocus attention on 107.775, the Apr 7 high and bull trigger. Clearance of this level would confirm a continuation of the uptrend and open 107.812, a Fibonacci projection. The latest pullback has resulted in a breach of the 20-day EMA. A deeper retracement would expose 107.241, the 50-day EMA.                                                        

GILT TECHS: (M5) Trading Lower                    

• RES 4: 94.50 High Apr 7 and key resistance  
• RES 3: 94.00 Round number resistance      
• RES 2: 93.59/93 High May 8 / 2
• RES 1: 92.79 20-day EMA                           
• PRICE: 92.26 @ 08:15 BST May 9
• SUP 1: 92.18 Intraday low                                        
• SUP 2: 91.73/91.43 Low Apr 17 / 15 
• SUP 3: 90.47/89.99 Low Apr 11 / 9     
• SUP 4: 89.68 Low Jan 15 (cont) 

The latest pullback in Gilt futures appears corrective. However, the contract is trading lower today and this has confirmed a break of support at the 50-day EMA, at 92.52. The breach signals scope for a deeper retracement and attention turns to 91.73, the Apr 17 low. On the upside, a reversal higher would signal the end of the corrective phase and open 94.50, the Apr 7 high and  key resistance. Initial firm resistance to monitor is 93.93, the May 2 high.                              

BTP TECHS: (M5) Northbound                                    

• RES 4: 121.93 76.4% of the Dec 5 ‘24 - Mar 14 bear leg (cont)       
• RES 3: 121.43 1.618 proj of the Mar 14 - Apr 4 - 9 price swing    
• RES 2: 121.00 High Feb 7 (cont) and a key resistance  
• RES 1: 120.72 High May 8               
• PRICE: 120.40 @ Close May 8 
• SUP 1: 119.59 20-day EMA       
• SUP 2: 118.09 Low Apr 14       
• SUP 3: 117.28 Low Apr 10 
• SUP 4: 116.06 Low Apr 9    

A bull cycle in BTP futures remains intact and Wednesday’s strong rally reinforces current conditions. The contract has pierced short-term resistance at 120.57, the Apr 24 high. This highlights a resumption of the uptrend and note too that 120.65, a 1.382 projection of the Mar 14 - Apr 4 - 9 price swing, has also been pierced. This opens 121.00, the Feb 7 high (cont). Firm support to watch lies at 119.59, the 20-day EMA.                

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M5) Fresh Short-Term Cycle High               

• RES 4: 5516.00 High Mar 3 and the key bull trigger  
• RES 3: 5471.00 High Mar 19 / 20 
• RES 2: 5341.00 High Mar 27
• RES 1: 5291.00 High May 8
• PRICE: 5274.00 @ 06:23 BST May 9 
• SUP 1: 5110.14 20-day EMA                      
• SUP 2: 4959.00/4812.00 Low Apr 23 / 16 and a key support 
• SUP 3: 4664.00 Low Apr 10         
• SUP 4: 4444.00 Low Apr 7 and the bear trigger    

Eurostoxx 50 futures remain in a bull cycle. The contract traded to a fresh short-term cycle high on Thursday, reinforcing bullish conditions. Note too that price has traded through 5263.01, 76.4% of the Mar 3 - Apr 7 bear leg. A continuation higher would signal scope for a climb towards 5341.00 next, the Mar 27 high. Initial support to watch lies at 5110.14, the 20-day EMA. Clearance of this level would signal a possible reversal.               

E-MINI S&P: (M5) Trend Needle Points North               

• RES 4: 5863.29 200-dma     
• RES 3: 5837.25 High Mar 25 and a bull trigger 
• RES 2: 5773.25 High Apr 2       
• RES 1: 5741.00 High May 8                               
• PRICE:5869.50 @ 07:24 BST May 9 
• SUP 1: 5560.62 20-day EMA                        
• SUP 2: 5355.25/5127.25 Low Apr 24 / 21 and a key support
• SUP 3: 4996.43 76.4% retracement of the Apr 7 - 10 bounce
• SUP 4: 4832.00 Low Apr 7 and the bear trigger

The bullish trend condition in S&P E-Minis remains unchanged. The contract has recently breached the 50-day EMA, at 5626.70. A continuation higher would expose 5837.25 next, the Mar 25 high and a bull trigger. It is still possible that the entire rally since Apr 7 is a correction. A reversal lower would signal the end of this corrective phase and expose initially, support at 5127.25, the Apr 21 low. First support to watch is 5560.62, the 20-day EMA. 

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (N5) Corrective Bounce

• RES 4: $78.10 - High Jan 15  
• RES 3: $75.81 - High Feb 20
• RES 2: $74.63 - High Apr 2 and a bull trigger
• RES 1: $63.84/66.77 - 20- and 50-day EMA values           
• PRICE: $63.28 @ 07:11 BST May 9
• SUP 1: $58.00 - Low April 9 and the bear trigger     
• SUP 2: $56.29 - 2.236 proj of the Feb 20 - Mar 5 - Apr 2 price swing
• SUP 3: $55.10 - 2.382 proj of the Feb 20 - Mar 5 - Apr 2 price swing
• SUP 4: $54.00 - Round number support

The trend condition in Brent futures remains bearish and short-term gains are considered corrective. Last week’s price action confirms recent gains between Apr 9 - 23 as corrective that allowed an oversold condition to unwind. A resumption of the bear leg would open $56.29 a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, key resistance to monitor is at the 50-day EMA, at $66.77. Initial resistance is at $63.84, the 20-day EMA.      

WTI TECHS: (M5) Key Support Remains Exposed 

• RES 4: $75.51 - High Jan 15 and a key resistance   
• RES 3: $72.56 - High Feb 20
• RES 2: $71.76 - High Apr 2 and key resistance
• RES 1: $60.85/63.72 - 20- and 50-day EMA values  
• PRICE: $60.28 @ 07:19 BST May 9 
• SUP 1: $54.67 - Low April 9 and the bear trigger  
• SUP 2: $53.72 - 2.236 proj of the Feb 20 - Mar 5 - Apr 2 price swing
• SUP 3: $52.54 - 2.382 proj of the Jan 15 - Feb 4 - 11 price swing
• SUP 4: $50.00 - Psychological round number  

A downtrend in WTI futures remains intact and short-term gains are considered corrective. The move down that started Apr 23 signals the end of the correction between Apr 9 - 23. That cycle higher allowed an oversold condition to unwind. For bears, a move lower would refocus attention on $54.67, the Apr 9 low and a bear trigger. Clearance of this level would resume the downtrend. Key resistance to watch is $63.72, the 50-day EMA.

GOLD TECHS: Trend Signals Remain Bullish                           

• RES 4: $3600.0 - Round number resistance 
• RES 3: $3578.0 - 2.000 proj of the Dec 19 - Feb 24 - Feb 28 swing
• RES 2: $3547.9 - 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - Apr 7 price swing
• RES 1: $3435.6/3500.1 - High May 7 / High Apr 22 and bull trigger         
• PRICE: $3317.4 @ 07:25 BST May 9
• SUP 1: $3274.9/3202.0 - Intraday low / Low May 1 
• SUP 2: $3167.8 - High Apr 3 and a recent breakout level 
• SUP 3: $3164.3 - 61.8% retracement Apr 7 - Apr 22 upleg
• SUP 4: $3115.1 - 50-day EMA 

The latest pullback in Gold appears corrective. The primary trend condition is bullish and a resumption of the bull cycle would signal scope for a climb towards the bull trigger at $3500.1, the Apr 22 high. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend. Key short-term support has been defined at $3202.0, the May 1 low. A break of this level is required to signal scope for a deeper retracement.   

SILVER TECHS: Bullish Theme Remains Intact           

• RES 4: $36.000 - Round number resistance 
• RES 3: $34.903 - High Oct 23 ‘24 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: $34.590 - High Mar 28  
• RES 1: $33.686 - High Apr 25                                        
• PRICE: $32.535 @ 08:07 BST May 9
• SUP 1: $31.668 -  Low May 1
• SUP 2: $30.915/28.351 - Low Apr 11 / 7 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $27.686 - Low Sep 6 ‘24   
• SUP 4: $27.180 - Low Aug 14 ‘24   

A bullish theme in Silver remains intact and the latest pullback that started Apr 25, is likely a correction. Key short-term support has been defined at $31.668, the May 1 low. A break of this level would signal scope for a deeper retracement and open $30.915, the Apr 11 low. For bulls, resistance to watch is $33.686, the Apr 24 high. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend.