MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Gold Trend Needle Points North

Price Signal Summary - Trend Structure In Gold Remains Bullish      

• The S&P E-Minis contract maintains a bullish tone and the latest pullback is considered corrective. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode set-up, highlighting a dominant uptrend and positive market sentiment. A resumption of the uptrend would open 6145.26, a 1.236 projection of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 - 6 price swing. Initial support to watch lies at 6024.9, the 20-day EMA. A bull cycle in the EUROSTOXX 50 futures contract remains intact and price is trading closer to its recent highs. The contract has recently breached the 50-day EMA. The clear break of this average strengthens a bullish theme. Sights are on 5015.00 next, the Oct 29 high. Initial support to watch lies at 4887.95, the 20-day EMA.          
• In FX, EURUSD continues to trade below 1.0630, the Dec 6 high. A resistance at 1.0566, the 20-day EMA, remains intact - for now. A close above this average would highlight a clear breach of it and signal scope for a stronger corrective recovery towards 1.0689, the 50-day EMA. The medium-term trend direction is down. First support lies at 1.0461, the Dec 2 low. GBPUSD is trading closer to its most recent highs. Gains are considered corrective and this has allowed an oversold trend condition to unwind. Key resistance to monitor is 1.2827, the 50-day EMA. The medium-term trend direction remains down. First support to watch lies at 1.2617, the Dec 2 low. USDJPY has traded higher this week and is holding on to its latest gains. The pair has breached both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. This signals scope for an extension higher. The next firm short-term resistance is at 153.66, 61.8% of the Nov 15 - Dec 3 pullback. A reversal lower would signal the end of the latest bounce and refocus attention on the bear trigger at 148.65, the Dec 3 low.
• On the commodity front, Gold has traded higher this week. A key short-term resistance at $2721.4, the Nov 25 high, has been pierced and this represents a positive development. A continuation higher would expose key resistance at $2790.1, the Oct 31 high. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the primary uptrend. First support is $2645.0, the 50-day EMA, followed by $2605.3, the Nov 26 low. In the oil space, a bearish threat in WTI futures remains present and this week’s gains are - for now - considered corrective. A resumption of the bear cycle would open $65.74, the Oct 1 low, and $63.90, the Sep 10 low and key support. For bulls, a stronger reversal to the upside would instead refocus attention on the key short-term resistance at $77.04, the Oct 8 high. Initial firm resistance to watch is unchanged at $72.41, the Nov 7 high.      
• In the FI space, the current bearish corrective cycle in  Bund futures remains in play and the move down is allowing a recent overbought condition to unwind. The trend structure remains bullish. Price has recently traded through 136.37, the 76.4% retracement of the Oct 1 - Nov 6 bear leg. A clear break of this level strengthens a bullish theme and opens 137.72, the Oct 1 high. Initial firm support to watch lies at 135.51, the 20-day EMA. It has been pierced, a clear break of it would expose 134.95, the Nov 26 low. Gilt futures have traded lower this week, resulting in a move through support at 95.49, the Dec 4 low, and 95.17, the Nov 28 low. A continuation down would expose key support at 93.40, the Nov 18 low. A breach of this support would be a bearish development and highlight a reversal. The next support lies at 94.66, the Nov 25 low. Key resistance and the bull trigger is 96.54, the Dec 3 high.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE    

EURUSD TECHS: Bearish Trend Structure     

• RES 4: 1.0937 High Nov 5 / 6 and a key resistance  
• RES 3: 1.0825 High Nov 7 
• RES 2: 1.0689 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.0566/0630 20-day EMA / High Dec 06
• PRICE: 1.0508 @ 06:03 GMT Dec 12
• SUP 1: 1.0461/0335 Low Dec 2 / Low Nov 22 and the bear trigger   
• SUP 2: 1.0311 1.382 proj of the Sep 25 - Oct 23 - Nov 5 price swing
• SUP 3: 1.0258 1.500 proj of the Sep 25 - Oct 23 - Nov 5 price swing  
• SUP 4: 1.0201 61.8% retracement of the Sep 28 - Juk 18 bull leg     

EURUSD continues to trade below 1.0630, the Dec 6 high. A resistance at 1.0566, the 20-day EMA, remains intact - for now. A close above this average would highlight a clear breach of it and signal scope for a stronger corrective recovery towards 1.0689, the 50-day EMA. An extension higher would also allow for an unwinding of the recent oversold condition. The medium-term trend direction is down. First support lies at 1.0461, the Dec 2 low.  

GBPUSD TECHS: Resistance Is Intact 

• RES 4: 1.3048 High Nov 6 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 1.2961 50.0% retracement of the Sep 26 - Nov 22 bear leg  
• RES 2: 1.2827 50-day EMA 
• RES 1: 1.2811 High Dec 6 
• PRICE: 1.2765 @ 06:16 GMT Dec 12 
• SUP 1: 1.2617/2487 Low Dec 2 / Low Nov 22 and the bear trigger   
• SUP 2: 1.2446 Low May 9
• SUP 3. 1.2367 76.4% retracement of the Oct 4 ‘23 - Sep 26 uptrend 
• SUP 4: 1.2300 Low Apr 22 and a key support     

GBPUSD remains in consolidation mode and is trading closer to its most recent highs. Recent gains are considered corrective and this has allowed an oversold trend condition to unwind. Key resistance to monitor is 1.2827, the 50-day EMA. The medium-term trend direction remains down, the bear trigger lies at 1.2487, the Nov 22 low. First support to watch lies at 1.2617, the Dec 2 low.   

EURGBP TECHS: Approaching Major Support           

• RES 4: 0.8448 High Oct 31 and reversal trigger
• RES 3: 08376 High Nov 19 and a bull trigger 
• RES 2: 0.8333 50-day EMA 
• RES 1: 0.8299 20-day EMA 
• PRICE: 0.8230 @ 06:27 GMT Dec 12  
• SUP 1: 0.8225 Low Dec 11
• SUP 2: 0.8203 Low Mar 7 2022 and a major support 
• SUP 3: 0.8200 Round number support
• SUP 4: 0.8188 1.00 proj of the Oct 31 - Nov 11 - 19 price swing

A fourth consecutive session of lower lows and lower highs for EURGBP reinforces the current bearish theme. Attention is on key support at 0.8203, the Mar 7 ‘22 low and the lowest point of a multi-year range. A clear breach of this support would represent a major breakout. The cross is approaching oversold territory, a recovery would be considered corrective. Initial resistance to watch is 0.8299, the 20-day EMA. 

USDJPY TECHS: Recovery Extends        

• RES 4: 155.89/156.75 High Nov 20 / 15 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 154.84 76.4% retracement of the Nov 15 - Dec 3 pullback
• RES 2: 153.66 61.8% retracement of the Nov 15 - Dec 3 pullback   
• RES 1: 152.82 High Dec 11
• PRICE: 152.54 @ 06:48 GMT Dec 12 
• SUP 1: 149.37/148.65 Low Dec 06 / 03 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 2: 148.17 50.0% retracement of the Sep 16 - Nov 15 bull leg 
• SUP 3: 147.67 2.0% 10-dma envelope 
• SUP 4: 147.35 Low Oct 8

USDJPY has traded higher this week and is holding on to its latest gains. The pair has breached both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. This undermines the recent bearish theme and for now, signals scope for an extension higher. The next firm short-term resistance is at 153.66, a Fibonacci retracement. A reversal lower would signal the end of the latest bounce and refocus attention on the bear trigger at 148.65, the Dec 3 low.     

EURJPY TECHS: Has Pierced The 20-Day EMA             

• RES 4: 164.76 High Nov 20 and a key short-term resistance  
• RES 3: 162.49 High Nov 22  
• RES 2: 161.66 50-day EMA 
• RES 1: 160.66 High Dec 11   
• PRICE: 160.35 @ 07:17 GMT Dec 12
• SUP 1: 157.56 Low Dec 05
• SUP 2: 156.18 Low Dec 03 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 3: 155.15 Low Sep 16 and a key support 
• SUP 4: 153.87 Low Dec 8 / 14 2023 

EURJPY is holding on to its recent gains and a corrective cycle is in play. Moving average studies are in a bear mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. 157.87, the 76.4% retracement of the Sep 16 - Oct 31 bull cycle, has recently been breached. The clear break of this level strengthens a bearish theme and opens 155.15, the Sep 16 low. The 20-day EMA, at 160.39, has been pierced. Resistance at the 50-day EMA is at 161.66.      

AUDUSD TECHS: Gains Appear Corrective

• RES 4: 0.6733 High Oct 13  
• RES 3: 0.6688 High Nov 7 and a reversal trigger              
• RES 2: 0.6552 50-day EMA  
• RES 1: 0.6470 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.6416 @ 08:00 GMT Dec 12
• SUP 1: 0.6337 Low Dec 11
• SUP 3: 0.6300 Round number support
• SUP 3: 0.6270 Low Oct 26 ‘23 
• SUP 4: 0.6259 1.000 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing 

The trend condition in AUDUSD remains bearish and yesterday’s extension reinforces the current bearish theme. Today’s gains appear corrective. The move lower maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position too, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Sights are on 0.6259 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance to watch is 0.6470, the 20-day EMA. 

USDCAD TECHS: Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: 1.4372 2.0% 10-dma envelope  
• RES 3: 1.4246 2.00 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
• RES 2: 1.4196 1.764 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
• RES 1: 1.4195 High Dec 10
• PRICE: 1.4146 @ 08:08 GMT Dec 12
• SUP 1: 1.4053/3933 20- and 50-day EMA values  
• SUP 2: 1.3928 Low Nov 25 and a key support 1.3933 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.3822 Low Nov 6
• SUP 4: 1.3747 Low Oct 17

The trend condition in USDCAD remains bullish despite and price is trading closer to its recent highs. The pair has pierced resistance at 1.4178, the Nov 26 high, to highlight a resumption of the uptrend and maintain the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on 1.4196 next, a Fibonacci projection. Key short-term support has been defined at 1.3928, the Nov 25 low. Initial support to watch lies at 1.4053, the 20-day EMA.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (H5) Corrective Pullback Extends 

• RES 4: 138.00 Round number resistance           
• RES 3: 137.72 High Oct 1 and a key resistance 
• RES 2: 137.28 High Oct 2
• RES 1: 136.52/137.18 High Dec 6 / 2 and the bull trigger               
• PRICE: 135.74 @ 05:42 GMT Dec 12
• SUP 1: 135.51 20-day EMA 
• SUP 2  134.95 Low Nov 26              
• SUP 3: 134.55 Low Nov 25
• SUP 4: 133.17 Low Nov 20  

The current bearish corrective cycle in Bund futures remains in play and the move down is allowing a recent overbought condition to unwind. The trend structure remains bullish. Price has recently traded through 136.37, the 76.4% retracement of the Oct 1 - Nov 6 bear leg. A clear break of this level strengthens a bullish theme and opens 137.72, the Oct 1 high. Initial firm support to watch lies at 135.51, the 20-day EMA.                   

BOBL TECHS: (H5) Support Lies At The 20-Day EMA

• RES 4: 119.925 2.500 proj of the Nov 6 - 12 - 18 price swing        
• RES 3: 119.813 2.382 proj of the Nov 6 - 12 - 18 price swing   
• RES 2: 119.674 2.236 proj of the Nov 6 - 12 - 18 price swing 
• RES 1: 119.280/119.480 High Dec 4 and 5 / High Dec 3                        
• PRICE: 118.850 @ 05:56 GMT Dec 12  
• SUP 1: 118.671 20-day EMA             
• SUP 2: 118.640 Low Dec 6    
• SUP 3: 118.280 Low Nov 25    
• SUP 4: 118.000 Round number support  

The uptrend in Bobl futures remains intact and the latest pullback is considered corrective - for now. The move down has allowed a short-term overbought condition to unwind. A resumption of gains would open 119.674 next, a Fibonacci projection. The bull trigger is 119.480, the Feb 2 high. Initial firm support to watch lies at 118.671, the 20-day EMA. A clear breach of this average would signal scope for a deeper retracement.      

SCHATZ TECHS: (H5) Trend Structure Remains Bullish          

• RES 4: 107.592 1.236 proj of the Nov 18 - 22 - 26 price swing  
• RES 3: 107.505 1.000 proj of the Nov 18 - 22 - 26 price swing
• RES 2: 107.480 High Dec 2 / 3 and the bull trigger 
• RES 1: 107.385 High Dec 4      
• PRICE: 107.270 @ 06:03 GMT Dec 12   
• SUP 1: 107.110 Low Dec 6 and key short-term support           
• SUP 2: 107.045 Low Nov 22  
• SUP 3: 106.960 Low Nov 20
• SUP 4: 106.920 Low Nov 18  

The trend structure in Schatz futures remains intact and recent weakness appears to have been a correction. The short-term bull trigger has been defined at 107.480, the Dec 2 and 3 high. Clearance of this level would open 107.505 and 107.592, Fibonacci projection points. Initial support lies at 107.110, the Dec 6 low. A break of it would undermine a bullish theme and signal scope for a deeper retracement.                                

GILT TECHS: (H5) Short-Term Bear Cycle Remains In Play     

• RES 4: 96.83 2.618 proj of the Nov 18 - 19 - 20 price swing   
• RES 3: 96.67 2.500 proj of the Nov 18 - 19 - 20 price swing   
• RES 2: 96.18/54 High Dec 5 / 3 
• RES 1: 95.73 High Dec 10               
• PRICE: 94.88 @ 10:17 GMT Dec 12
• SUP 1: 94.82 Intraday low                       
• SUP 2: 94.66 Low Nov 25 
• SUP 3: 93.96 Low Nov 22
• SUP 4: 93.40 Low Nov 18 and a key short-term support

Gilt futures have traded lower this week, resulting in a move through support at 95.49, the Dec 4 low, and 95.17, the Nov 28 low. A continuation down would expose key support at 93.40, the Nov 18 low. A breach of this support would be a bearish development and highlight a reversal. Key resistance and the bull trigger is 96.54, the Dec 3 high. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the recent uptrend.                 

 BTP TECHS: (H5) Bullish Outlook                      

• RES 4: 124.00 Round number resistance    
• RES 3: 123.83 1.764 proj of the Nov 7 - 15 - 18 price swing
• RES 2: 123.43 1.618 proj of the Nov 7 - 15 - 18 price swing 
• RES 1: 123.34 High Dec 11 
• PRICE: 123.02 @ Close Dec 11 
• SUP 1: 122.34 Low Dec 4      
• SUP 2: 121.72 20-day EMA    
• SUP 3: 120.05 Low Nov 25  
• SUP 4: 119.11 Low Nov 18  

BTP futures remain in a bull cycle and the contract continues to trade closer to its recent highs. The latest rally has resulted in a move through key resistance at 121.97, the Oct 1 high. The clear break of this level highlights an important bullish development and opens 123.43 next, a Fibonacci projection. The trend is overbought and a corrective pullback would allow this condition to unwind. Support to watch is 121.72, the 20-day EMA. 

US‌‌ ‌‌10YR‌‌ ‌‌FUTURE‌‌ ‌‌TECHS:‌‌ (H5) Bull Cycle Remains In Play 

• RES 4: 112-18   50.0% retracement of the Sep 11 - Nov 15 bear leg 
• RES 3: 112-02   Low Oct 14  
• RES 2: 111-24   38.2% retracement of the Sep 11 - Nov 15 bear leg  
• RES 1: 111-20+ High Dec 6 
• PRICE:‌‌ 110-31 @ 16:53 GMT Dec 11
• SUP 1: 110-01   Low Nov 25       
• SUP 2: 109-20   Low Nov 20/21 
• SUP 3: 109-02+ Low Nov 15 and the bear trigger    
• SUP 4: 108-28   1.236 proj of the Oct 1 - 14 - 16 price swing

A bull cycle in Treasuries remains in play despite this week's fade in prices. Recent gains reinforce the current bullish condition. The contract has traded through the 50-day EMA, at 111-11+. A clear break of the average would strengthen a bullish theme and open 111-24 next, 38.2% of the Sep 11 - Nov 15 bear leg. For bears, a reversal lower would signal the end of the bull cycle and open 109-02+, Nov 15 low. Next support is 110-01, Nov 25 low.          

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (Z4) Trading Closer To Its Recent Highs           

• RES 4: 5184.22 3.236 proj of the Nov 19 - 25 - 27 price swing
• RES 3: 5150.00 3.00 proj of the Nov 19 - 25 - 27 price swing       
• RES 2: 5106.00 High Sep 30 and a bull trigger 
• RES 1: 5015.00 High Oct 29        
• PRICE: 4970.00 @ 06:28 GMT Dec 12  
• SUP 1: 4887.95/4699.00 20-day EMA / Low Nov 19 and bear trigger      
• SUP 2: 4707.00 Low Aug 9   
• SUP 3: 4662.12 .76.4% retracement of the Aug 5 - Sep 30 bull cycle
• SUP 4: 4586.00 Low Aug 6   

A bull cycle in the Eurostoxx 50 futures contract remains intact and price is trading closer to its recent highs. The contract has recently breached the 50-day EMA. The clear break of this average strengthens a bullish theme and note that 4961.00, the Nov 6 high, has also been cleared. Sights are on 5015.00 next, the Oct 29 high. Key support is 4699.00, the Nov 19 low. Initial support to watch lies at 4887.95, the 20-day EMA.    

E-MINI S&P: (Z4) Northbound 

• RES 4: 6200.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 6184.00 1.000 proj of the Nov 4 - 11 - 19 price swing   
• RES 2: 6145.26 1.236 proj of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 - 6 price swing   
• RES 1: 6111.00 High Dec 6 and the bull trigger       
• PRICE: 6084.50 @ 07:23 GMT Dec 12
• SUP 1: 6024.92 20-day EMA      
• SUP 2: 5976.25/5931.08 Low Nov 26 / 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 5855.00 Low Nov 19  
• SUP 4: 5814.75 Low Nov 6

The S&P E-Minis contract maintains a bullish tone and the latest pullback is considered corrective. Recent gains confirm a resumption of the uptrend and signal scope for a continuation near-term. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode set-up, highlighting a dominant uptrend and positive market sentiment. A resumption of the uptrend would open 6145.26, a Fibonacci projection. Initial support to watch lies at 6024.9, the 20-day EMA. 

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (G5) Trend Remains Bearish Despite Recent Gains              

• RES 4: $84.32 - High Jul 5 and a key resistance 
• RES 3: $81.83 - High Jul 18 
• RES 2: $79.98/80.44 - High Oct 7 / 76.4% of Jul 5 - Sep 10 bear leg
• RES 1: $74.28/75.79 - High Dec 4 / High Nov 5       
• PRICE: $73.73 @ 07:10 GMT Dec 12 
• SUP 1: $69.95 - Low Oct 29   
• SUP 2: $69.52/67.89 - Low Oct 1 / Low Sep 10 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $66.70 - 1.764 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
• SUP 4: $64.34 - 2.000 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing

Despite this week’s gains, the outlook in Brent futures remains bearish and moving average studies continue to highlight a dominant downtrend. A resumption of the bear leg would open $69.52 the Oct 1 low, and $67.89, the Sep 10 low and a key support. For bulls, a clearer reversal higher would instead refocus attention on key resistance at $79.98, the Oct 7 high. Initial firm resistance to watch is unchanged at $75.79, the Nov 5 high.           

WTI TECHS: (F5) Bounce Considered Corrective            

• RES 4: $80.25 - High Jul 5  
• RES 3: $78.03 - High Jul 18
• RES 2: $74.83/77.04 - High Nov 22 / 8 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $71.51/72.41 - High Dec 4 / High Nov 7   
• PRICE: $70.41 @ 07:20 GMT Dec 12
• SUP 1: $66.32 - Low Oct 29     
• SUP 2: $65.74/63.90 - Low Oct 1 / Low Sep 10 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $62.73 - 1.764 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
• SUP 4: $60.00 - Psychological round number

A bearish threat in WTI futures remains present and this week’s gains are - for now - considered corrective. A resumption of the bear cycle would open $65.74, the Oct 1 low, and $63.90, the Sep 10 low and key support. For bulls, a stronger reversal to the upside would instead refocus attention on the key short-term resistance at $77.04, the Oct 8 high. Initial firm resistance to watch is unchanged at $72.41, the Nov 7 high.            

GOLD TECHS: Pierces Resistance     

• RES 4: $2790.1 - High Oct 31 and the bull trigger  
• RES 3: $2750.0 - High Nov 5
• RES 2: $2730.4 - 76.4% retracement of the Oct 31 - Nov 14 bear leg     
• RES 1: $2726.2 - Intraday high      
• PRICE: $2691.4@ 07:26 GMT Dec 11 
• SUP 1: $2640.5 - 50-day EMA 
• SUP 2: $2605.3/2564.4 - Low Nov 26 / 18
• SUP 3: $2536.9 - Low Nov 14 and a key support 
• SUP 4: $2511.1 - Low Sep 12  

Gold has traded higher this week. A key short-term resistance at $2721.4, the Nov 25 high, has been pierced and this represents a positive development. A continuation higher would expose key resistance at $2790.1, the Oct 31 high. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the primary uptrend. On the downside key support to monitor is $2536.9, the Nov 14 low. First support is $2645.0, the 50-day EMA, ahead of $2605.3, the Nov 26 low.              

SILVER TECHS: Trading At Its Recent Highs               

• RES 4: $35.226 - 61.8% of the 2011 - 2020 major bear leg  
• RES 3: $35.167 - 2.00 proj of the Aug 8 - 26 - Sep 6 price swing 
• RES 2: $33.125/34.903 - High Nov 1 / High Oct 23 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $32.338 - Intraday high                             
• PRICE: $32.094 @ 10:32 GMT Dec 12  
• SUP 1: $29.642 - Low Nov 28       
• SUP 2: $28.446 - 76.4% retracement of the Aug 8 - Oct 23 bull cycle 
• SUP 3: $27.686 - Low Sep 6 
• SUP 4: $26.451 - Low Aug 8  

Silver continues to trade closer to its recent highs. Despite a recovery in price, the bear cycle that started Oct 23 remains in play and gains are considered corrective - for now. Price has recently traded through a trendline drawn from the Aug 8 low. A resumption of the bear leg would open $28.446, a Fibonacci retracement. The 50-day EMA, at  $31.209, has been pierced. A continuation higher would expose $33.125, the Nov 1 high.