MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Gold Still in Clear Bull Cycle

Price Signal Summary – Gold Remains in Clear Bull Cycle

• A bull cycle in S&P E-Minis remains intact and the latest pullback has once again proved to be a shallow correction. The contract traded to a fresh cycle high last week, breaching the Aug 28 high of 6523.00. A corrective bear cycle in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains in play. Recent weakness resulted in a breach of 5368.87, the 50-day EMA. The clear break of this average strengthens a short-term bearish threat and signals scope for a deeper retracement.
• GBPUSD is trading higher today as the pair extends the recovery from The Sep 3 low. The move higher has retraced the steep sell-off on Sep 2 and highlights a stronger bullish development. USDJPY is trading lower as the pair extends the reversal from last week’s 149.14 high on Sep 3. The move down refocuses attention on key short-term support at 146.21, the Aug 14 low and a bear trigger. AUDUSD traded higher again Monday to build on the latest gains and remains firm. The current bull cycle confirms the end of a corrective phase that started on Jul 24.                     
• Gold remains in a clear bull cycle and last week’s gains plus Monday’s bullish start to the week, reinforce current conditions. The yellow metal has traded to  a fresh all-time high. The trend condition in WTI futures is unchanged - a bear cycle remains intact. The pullback from last Tuesday’s high highlights a possible reversal and the end of the corrective phase. Initial resistance to watch is $66.03, the Sep 2 high.
• Bund futures rallied sharply higher Friday resulting in a break of resistance at 128.87, the Aug 28 high and short-term bull trigger. The climb undermines a recent bearish theme and highlights a stronger reversal. A strong rally in Gilt futures last week and bullish start to this week’s session, highlights a stronger corrective cycle. The move higher is allowing an oversold trend condition to unwind.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE    

EURUSD TECHS: Approaching The Bull Trigger 

• RES 4: 1.1923 2.00 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - 247 price swing
• RES 3: 1.1851 High Sep 10 2021
• RES 2: 1.1829 High Jul 01 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.1789 High Jul 24
• PRICE: 1.1776 @ 06:10 BST Sep 9
• SUP 1: 1.1671/25 20-and 50-day EMA values
• SUP 2: 1.1574/1.1528 Low Aug 27 / Low Aug 5
• SUP 3: 1.1392 Low Aug 1 and bear trigger
• SUP 4: 1.1373 Low Jun 10

The trend theme in EURUSD remains bullish. This week’s move higher reinforces current conditions and confirms a clear breach of 1.1743, the Aug 22 high. This highlights a short-term bullish development and signals scope for an extension towards 1.1829, the Jul 01 high and bull trigger. Support to watch is around the 50-day EMA, at 1.1625. A clear breach of this average would signal scope for a deeper retracement.    

GBPUSD TECHS: Recovery Extends   

• RES 4: 1.3681 High Jul 4  
• RES 3: 1.3636 76.4% retracement of the Jul 1 - Aug1 downleg
• RES 2: 1.3595 High Aug 14 and a bull trigger 
• RES 1: 1.3578 Intraday high
• PRICE: 1.3573 @ 06:23 BST Sep 9
• SUP 1: 1.3463/3333 50-day EMA / Low Sep 3
• SUP 2: 1.3315 61.8% retracement of the Aug 1 - 14 bull leg
• SUP 3: 1.3249 76.4% retracement of the Aug 1 - 14 bull leg 
• SUP 4: 1.3142 Low Aug 1 and a key support      

GBPUSD is trading higher today as the pair extends the recovery from The Sep 3 low. The move higher has retraced the steep sell-off on Sep 2 and highlights a stronger bullish development. This also suggests the corrective cycle between Aug 14 - Sep 3 is over. Sights are on resistance at 1.3595, the Aug 14 high and a bull trigger. A break would strengthen a bullish condition. Initial support to watch is 1.3463, the 50-day EMA.        

EURGBP TECHS: Holding On To The Bulk Of Its Recent Gains         

• RES 4: 0.8769 High Jul 28 and the bull trigger   
• RES 3: 0.8744 High Aug 7 
• RES 2: 0.8728 76.4% retracement of the Jul 28 - Aug 14 bear leg
• RES 1: 0.8713 High Sep 2  
• PRICE: 0.8674 @ 06:42 BST Sep 9
• SUP 1: 0.8635/8597 50-day EMA / Low Aug 14 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 0.8562 50.0% retracement May 29 - Jul 28 upleg 
• SUP 3: 0.8540 Low Jun 30 
• SUP 4: 0.8514 61.8% retracement May 29 - Jul 28 upleg

EURGBP continues to trade closer to its recent highs. The cross has recently cleared resistance at 0.8674, the Aug 25 and 29 high. The break signals a stronger reversal and suggests scope for climb towards 0.8744, the Aug 7 high. Key resistance and the bull trigger is at 0.8769, the Jul 28 high. Key support to watch lies at 0.8597, the Aug 14 low. Clearance of this level would reinstate the recent bearish threat.

USDJPY TECHS: Sell-Off Exposes Support      

• RES 4: 151.62 61.8% retracement of the Jan 10 - Apr 22 bear leg
• RES 3: 150.92 High Aug 1 and a key resistance 
• RES 2: 149.81 76.4% retracement of the Aug 1 - 14 bear leg 
• RES 1: 147.63/149.14 20-day EMA / High Sep 3  
• PRICE: 146.92 @ 06:52 BST Sep 9
• SUP 1: 146.82 Low Sep 5  
• SUP 2: 145.86 Low Jul 24
• SUP 3: 145.47 Trendline drawn from the Apr 22 low
• SUP 4: 145.40 50% retracement of the Apr - Aug upleg

USDJPY is trading lower as the pair extends the reversal from last week’s 149.14 high on Sep 3. The move down refocuses attention on key short-term support at 146.21, the Aug 14 low and a bear trigger. A break of this level would highlight a stronger bearish threat and expose 145.40, a Fibonacci retracement. Clearance of the Sep 3 high is required to reinstate a bullish theme.  

EURJPY TECHS: Trend Needle Points North   

• RES 4: 177.08 2.000 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - Apr 7 price swing 
• RES 3: 175.43 High Jul 11 ‘24 and a key medium-term resistance
• RES 2: 174.86 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - Apr 7 price swing
• RES 1: 173.97 High Jul 28 and the bull trigger 
• PRICE: 173.01 @ 06:57 BST Sep 9
• SUP 1: 171.15 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 169.73/45 Low Jul 31 / 23.6% of the Feb 28 - Jul 28 bull leg
• SUP 3: 168.46 Low Jul 1  
• SUP 4: 167.46 Low Jun 23   

The trend set-up in EURJPY remains bullish and sights are on key resistance and the bull trigger at 173.97, the Jul 28 high. Clearance of this level would confirm a continuation of the bull phase. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position too, highlighting a primary uptrend. A break of 173.97 would open 174.86, a Fibonacci projection. Key support to watch lies at the 50-day EMA at 171.15.  

AUDUSD TECHS: Approaching The Bull Trigger   

• RES 4: 0.6688 High Nov 7 ‘24
• RES 3: 0.6677 0.764 proj of the Jun 23 - Jul 11 - 17 price swing
• RES 2: 0.6625 High Jul 24 and the bull trigger 
• RES 1: 0.6615 Intraday high 
• PRICE: 0.6605 @ 07:59 BST Sep 9
• SUP 1: 0.6522 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 0.6463/6415 Low Aug 27 / Low Aug 21 / 22 and a bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.6373 Low Jun 23 
• SUP 4: 0.6354 38.2% retracement of the Apr 9 - Jul 24 upleg

AUDUSD traded higher again Monday to build on the latest gains and remains firm. The current bull cycle confirms the end of a corrective phase that started on Jul 24. Resistance at 0.6569, the Aug 14 high, has been cleared. This exposes key resistance and the bull trigger at 0.6625, the Jul 24 high. Support to watch is 0.6415, the Aug 21 / 22 low. A clear break of it would instead resume a bear leg and highlight a stronger reversal.

USDCAD TECHS: Trading Above Support

• RES 4: 1.4019 38.2% retracement of the Feb 3 - Jun 16 bear leg  
• RES 3: 1.3925 High Aug 22 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 1.3868 High Aug 26 
• RES 1: 1.3854 High Sep 05
• PRICE: 1.3801 @ 08:02 BST Sep 9
• SUP 1: 1.3727 Low Aug 27 and a bear trigger  
• SUP 2: 1.3709 61.8% retracement of the Jul 23 - Aug 22 bull cycle
• SUP 3: 1.3658 76.4% retracement of the Jul 23 - Aug 22 bull cycle 
• SUP 4: 1.3637 Low Jul 25  

A bull cycle in USDCAD remains intact. Near term, the recovery from the Aug 29 low highlights a potential early reversal signal and if correct, the end of the corrective pullback between Aug 22 - 29. An extension higher would open the bull trigger at 1.3925, the Aug 22 high. Support lies at 1.3727, the Aug 29 low. Clearance of this level would instead reinstate a short-term bear theme and expose 1.3709 initially, a Fibonacci retracement.  

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (Z5) Bull Cycle Remains Intact     

• RES 4: 129.66 High Jul 22  
• RES 3: 129.50 High Aug 5 and a key resistance    
• RES 2: 129.31 High Aug 6  
• RES 1: 129.20 High Sep 5  
• PRICE: 129.20 @ 05:46 BST Sep 9
• SUP 1: 128.25 Low Sep 4      
• SUP 2: 127.61 Low Sep 3 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 127.46 1.00 proj of the Aug 14 - 15 - 28 price swing  
• SUP 4: 127.13 1.236 proj of the Aug 14 - 15 - 28 price swing  

Bund futures rallied sharply higher Friday resulting in a break of resistance at 128.87, the Aug 28 high and short-term bull trigger. The climb undermines a recent bearish theme and highlights a stronger reversal. Price has moved through the 129.00 handle, signalling scope for an extension towards 129.50, the Aug 5 high. Key support and the bear trigger has been defined at 127.61, the Sep 3 low.       

BOBL TECHS: (Z5) Recovery Extends  

• RES 4: 118.635 1.500 proj of the Aug 25 - 28 - Sep 2 price swing     
• RES 3: 118.561 1.382 proj of the Aug 25 - 28 - Sep 2 price swing  
• RES 2: 118.469 1.236 proj of the Aug 25 - 28 - Sep 2 price swing 
• RES 1: 118.350 High Sep 5 
• PRICE: 118.310 @ 05:55 BST Sep 9
• SUP 1: 117.920 Low Sep 4    
• SUP 2: 117.690 Low Sep 2    
• SUP 3: 117.630 Low Aug 25  and a key short-term support   
• SUP 4: 117.481 123.6% retracement projection of Aug 25 - 28 rally  

Bobl futures rallied Friday and again yesterday. The contract has breached resistance at 118.260, the Aug 28 high. A breach of this level undermines the recent bearish theme and signals scope for a stronger recovery towards 118.469, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, initial support to watch lies at 117.920, the Sep 4 low. A break of this level would highlight a reversal and instead expose 117.690, the Sep 2 low.   

SCHATZ TECHS: (Z5) Resistance Remains Intact    

• RES 4: 107.360 High Jul 22 and 23 (cont)  
• RES 3: 107.240 High Aug 4  
• RES 2: 107.225 High Aug 27 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 107.190 High Sep 5 and 8 
• PRICE: 107.160 @ 06:10 BST Sep 9
• SUP 1: 107.050 Low Aug 25 and Sep 2 and a bear trigger  
• SUP 2: 107.000 Round number support  
• SUP 3: 106.983 138.2% retracement proj of the Aug 25 - 27 rally 
• SUP 4: 106.963 150.0% retracement proj of the Aug 25 - 27 rally

The trend structure in Schatz futures remains bearish and - for now - recent short-term gains still appear corrective. Attention is on the next important support at 107.050, the Aug 25 and Sep 2 low. A break of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and open the 107.00 handle. Key short-term resistance to watch is 107.225, the Aug 27 high. Clearance of this hurdle would highlight a stronger bullish theme and signal a stronger reversal.      

GILT TECHS: (Z5) Corrective Cycle Extends    

• RES 4: 92.30 High Aug 7
• RES 3: 92.06 High Aug 14      
• RES 2: 92.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 91.61 High Sep 5 
• PRICE: 91.55 @ Close Sep 8
• SUP 1: 90.65 Low Sep 2
• SUP 2: 90.31/89.36 Low Sep 4 / 3
• SUP 3: 89.22 1.618 proj of the Aug 21 - 27 - 28 price swing 
• SUP 4: 89.00 Round number support   

A strong rally in Gilt futures last week and bullish start to this week’s session, highlights a stronger corrective cycle. The move higher is allowing an oversold trend condition to unwind. The contract has breached initial firm resistance at 90.84, the Aug 28 and 29 high. A continuation higher would open 92.06, the Aug 14 high. On the downside, initial support lies at 90.65, the Sep 5 low.    

BTP TECHS: (Z5) Bullish Outlook      

• RES 4: 121.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 120.74 High Aug 5 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 120.61 High Aug 14 
• RES 1: 120.42 High Sep 5
• PRICE: 120.35 @ Close Sep 8
• SUP 1: 119.06/118.36 Low Sep 4 / 3         
• SUP 2: 118.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 117.70 2.236 proj of the Aug 5 - 12 - 14 price swing  
• SUP 4: 117.36 2.500 proj of the Aug 5 - 12 - 14 price swing 

The primary trend condition in BTP futures is unchanged and the direction remains up. The strong rally from last week’s low highlights a bullish development and signals the end of the recent corrective pullback between Aug 5 - Sep 3. Key resistance and the bull trigger is 120.74, the Aug 5 high. A break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend. Key support has been defined at 118.36, the Sep 3 low.                          

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (U5) Corrective Phase Still In Play  

• RES 4: 5568.00 High Mar 6
• RES 3: 5526.00 High Mar 19 / 20 (cont) 
• RES 2: 5445.00/5522.00 High Aug 26 / 22
• RES 1: 5377.49 20-day EMA 
• PRICE: 5353.00 @ 06:19 BST Sep 9
• SUP 1: 5292.00 Low Sep 2 
• SUP 2: 5280.00 Low Aug 7  
• SUP 3: 5250.02 76.4% retracement of the Aug 1 - 22 rally  
• SUP 4: 5166.00 Low Aug 1 and key support  

A corrective bear cycle in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains in play. Recent weakness resulted in a breach of 5368.87, the 50-day EMA. The clear break of this average strengthens a short-term bearish threat and signals scope for a deeper retracement towards 5166.00, the Aug 1 low and a key support. On the upside, initial resistance to watch is 5377.49, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of it would be a bullish development.   

E-MINI S&P: (U5) Northbound  

• RES 4: 6610.98 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 6600.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 6543.75 2.00 proj of the Apr 7 - 10 - 21 price swing  
• RES 1: 6541.75 High Sep 5  
• PRICE: 6516.25 @ 07:24 BST Sep 9
• SUP 1: 6456.35/6371.75 20-day EMA / Low Sep 2 
• SUP 2: 6359.10 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 6313.25 Low Aug 6 
• SUP 4: 6239.50 Low Aug 1 and a key support

A bull cycle in S&P E-Minis remains intact and the latest pullback has once again proved to be a shallow correction. The contract traded to a fresh cycle high last week, breaching the Aug 28 high of 6523.00. This confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on 6543.75 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial support to watch is 6456.35, the 20-day EMA.   

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (X5) Bear Threat Remains Present     

• RES 4: $79.16 - 2.618 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 3: $77.28 - 2.382 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 2: $76.39 - High Jun 23 and a bull trigger 
• RES 1: $69.53/71.93 - High Sep 2 / High Jul 30 and a key resistance 
• PRICE: $66.57 @ 07:06 BST Sep 9
• SUP 1: $64.50 - Low Jun 30 and a key short-term support
• SUP 2: $60.82 - Low May 30
• SUP 3: $58.37 - Low May 5
• SUP 4: $57.81 - Low Apr 9 and a key support   

Recent short-term gains in Brent futures are for now, considered corrective and a bear cycle remains intact. A resumption of weakness would refocus attention on $64.50, the Jun 30 low, where a clear break would confirm a continuation of the bear leg. This would open $60.82, the May 30 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at $71.93, the Jul 30 high. Clearance of this level would cancel a bear theme.  

WTI TECHS: (V5) Bearish Theme

• RES 4: $77.85 - 2.794 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 3: $75.65 - 2.500 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 2: $74.25 - High Jun 23 and a bull trigger 
• RES 1: $66.03/69.36 - High Sep2 / High Jul 30 and key resistance   
• PRICE: $62.73 @ 07:21 BST Sep 9
• SUP 1: $61.29 - Low Aug 13 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 2: $57.71 - Low May 30
• SUP 3: $54.80 - Low May 5
• SUP 4: $54.03 - Low Apr 9 and a key support

The trend condition in WTI futures is unchanged - a bear cycle remains intact. The pullback from last Tuesday’s high highlights a possible reversal and the end of the corrective phase. Initial resistance to watch is $66.03, the Sep 2 high. Key short-term resistance has been defined at $69.36, the Jul 30 high. A stronger resumption of weakness would pave the way for a move towards $57.71, the May 30 low. 

GOLD TECHS: Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat    

• RES 4: $3716.5 - 2.500 proj of the Dec 30 ’24 - Apr 3 - 7 price swing 
• RES 3: $3700.0 - Round number resistance
• RES 2: $3674.8 - 2.382 proj of the Dec 30 ’24 - Apr 3 - 7 price swing
• RES 1: $3659.4 - Intraday high              
• PRICE: $3638.9 @ 07:25 BST Sep 9
• SUP 1: $3540.2 - Low Sep 5  
• SUP 2: $3458.7 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: $3393.8 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: $3311.6 - Low Aug 20  

Gold remains in a clear bull cycle and last week’s gains plus Monday’s bullish start to the week, reinforce current conditions. The yellow metal has traded to  a fresh all-time high. The break also confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend and an extension of the sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The next objective is $3674.8, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support lies at $3458.7, the 20-day EMA.               

SILVER TECHS: Northbound

• RES 4: $42.606 - 2.236 proj of the Jul 31 - Aug 14 - 20 price swing
• RES 3: $42.323 - 1.764 proj of the Apr 7 - 25 - May 15 swing 
• RES 2: $42.000 - Round number resistance
• RES 1: $41.671 - High Sep 8      
• PRICE: $41.342 @ 08:04 BST Sep 9
• SUP 1: $39.552 - 20-day EMA 
• SUP 2: $38.271 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $36.216 - Low Jul 31 and a key support   
• SUP 4: $35.285 - Low Jun 24

Trend signals in Silver remain bullish and the metal is holding on to its recent gains. Resistance at $39.530, the Jul 23 high, has been cleared. This confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, reinforcing current trend conditions. Sights are on the $42.00 handle next. Initial support to watch is $39.552, the 20-day EMA.