MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Gold Still Bullish, Topping Res

Price Signal Summary – Gold Remains Bullish, Topping Resistance

• S&P E-Minis have traded higher this week, marking an extension of last week’s bull phase. Gains undermine a recent bearish theme. The contract has traded through the 50-day EMA and note that resistance at 6107.50, the Dec 26 high, has been breached. A bull cycle in the Eurostoxx 50 futures contract remains intact and the contract traded higher on Wednesday. Recent gains have resulted in a breach of 5054.00, the Jan 8 high, to confirm a resumption of the uptrend.
• A short-term bullish corrective cycle in GBPUSD remains in play, for now. Initial firm resistance to watch is 1.2364, the 20-day EMA. The average was pierced on Wednesday, a clear break of it would highlight a stronger corrective phase. The trend condition in USDJPY remains bullish and the latest pullback is considered corrective. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. A bearish trend condition in AUDUSD remains intact and the recent recovery is considered corrective. The pair has recently breached 0.6179, Dec 31 low, maintaining the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs.
• Gold continues to trade higher this week. The yellow metal has breached resistance at 2726.2, the Dec 12 high and a key short-term resistance. The clear break of this hurdle strengthens a bullish theme and signals scope for an extension near-term. The trend structure in WTI futures remains bullish despite the latest pullback. The move down is allowing an overbought trend reading to unwind. The latest strong impulsive climb resulted in a breach of $75.91, the Oct 8 high. Attention is on $79.48, the Apr 12 ‘24 high.
• Bund futures are holding on to their recent gains. The Jan 15 rally   highlighted a reversal signal - a bullish engulfing candle. It suggests scope for a continued corrective phase that is allowing an oversold trend condition to unwind. The medium-term trend condition in Gilt futures remains bearish. However, recent gains highlight a corrective phase and signal scope for a continuation higher near-term. This week’s climb reinforces current short-term conditions.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE    

EURUSD TECHS: Resistance At The 50-Day EMA Remains Intact For Now     

• RES 4: 1.0630 High Dec 06
• RES 3: 1.0574 38.2% retracement of the Sep 25 - Jan 13 bear leg 
• RES 2: 1.0513 High Dec 18
• RES 1: 1.0458 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.0407 @ 06:01 GMT Jan 23
• SUP 1: 1.0260/0178 Low Jan 15 / 13 and the bear trigger   
• SUP 2: 1.0138 1.764 proj of the Sep 25 - Oct 23 - Nov 5 price swing
• SUP 3: 1.0115 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 4: 1.0031 2.000 proj of the Sep 25 - Oct 23 - Nov 5 price swing    

EURUSD remains in a short-term bull cycle - a correction. The pair has recently breached the 20-day EMA and traded through trendline resistance at 1.0373, drawn from the Sep 30 ‘24 high. The move higher has exposed the 50-day EMA at 1.0458. Clearance of this average would strengthen a bullish condition. Key support and the bear trigger is at 1.0178, the Jan 13 low. The medium-term trend condition remains bearish.  

GBPUSD TECHS: Pierces The 20-Day EMA    

• RES 4: 1.2607 High Dec 30
• RES 3: 1.2529 50-day EMA     
• RES 2: 1.2494 High Jan 8 
• RES 1: 1.2364/76 20-day EMA / High Jan 22
• PRICE: 1.2316 @ 06:14 GMT Jan 23
• SUP 1: 1.2100 Low Jan 10 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 2: 1.2087 0.764 proj of the Sep 26 - Nov 22 - Dec 6 price swing
• SUP 3: 1.2037 Low Oct 4 ‘23 and a key support 
• SUP 4: 1.2000 Psychological round number      

A short-term bullish corrective cycle in GBPUSD remains in play, for now. Initial firm resistance to watch is 1.2364, the 20-day EMA. The average was pierced on Wednesday, a clear break of it would highlight a stronger corrective phase and signal scope for an extension, possibly towards the 50-day EMA, at 1.2529. The bear trigger has been defined at 1.2100, the Jan 10 low. Clearance of this support would resume the downtrend.       

EURGBP TECHS: Trend Needle Points North             

• RES 4: 0.8545 High Aug 21  
• RES 3: 0.8530 76.4% retracement of the Aug 8 - Dec 19 downleg 
• RES 2: 0.8494 High Aug 26 ‘24
• RES 1: 0.8474 High Jan 20
• PRICE: 0.8451 @ 06:27 GMT Jan 23
• SUP 1: 0.8403/8379 Low Jan 16 / 20-day EMA   
• SUP 2: 0.8349 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 0.8284 Low Jan 8
• SUP 4: 0.8263 Low Dec 31

A bull cycle in EURGBP remains intact and the cross is holding on to its latest gains. The move higher this month undermines a recent bearish theme and suggests scope for a stronger short-term recovery. Moving average studies have crossed and are in a bull-mode position, highlighting an uptrend. Sights are on 0.8494 next, the Aug 26 ‘24 high. Support at the 50-day EMA is at 0.8349. 

USDJPY TECHS: Trend Structure Remains Bullish 

• RES 4: 159.45 High Jul 12  
• RES 3: 159.26 0.618 proj of the Sep 16 - Nov 15 - Dec 3 price swing
• RES 2: 158.08/87 High Jan 15 / 10 and the bull trigger 
• RES 1: 156.82 50.0% retracement of the Jan 10 - 21 bear leg      
• PRICE: 156.53 @ 06:50 GMT Jan 23
• SUP 1: 155.08/154.78 50-day EMA / Low Jan 21
• SUP 2: 154.64 Trendline support drawn from the Sep 16 ‘24 low
• SUP 3: 153.16 Low Dec 17
• SUP 4: 152.46 Low Dec 13   

The trend condition in USDJPYremains bullish and the latest pullback is considered corrective. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Support to watch is 155.08, the 50-day EMA, and 154.64, a trendline drawn from the Sep 16 ‘24 high. A clear breach of both levels would highlight a stronger reversal. Key resistance and the bull trigger is 158.87, the Jan 10 high.      

EURJPY TECHS: Breaches Resistance                    

• RES 4: 165.43 High Nov 8 
• RES 3: 164.90 High Dec 30 and a key short-term resistance  
• RES 2: 164.55 High Jan 7
• RES 1: 163.22 High Jan 22 
• PRICE: 162.95 @ 07:03 GMT Jan 23 
• SUP 1: 160.96/159.73 Low Jan 21 / 17 and key short-term support     
• SUP 2: 159.51 61.8% retracement of the Dec 3 - 30 bull cycle   
• SUP 3: 158.67 Low Dec 11
• SUP 4: 158.24 76.4% retracement of the Dec 3 - 30 bull cycle

EURJPY traded higher yesterday, and the cross is holding on to its recent gains. The latest recovery has resulted in a breach of resistance at 162.89, the Jan 15 high. This undermines a bearish theme and highlights scope for an extension higher near term, towards key resistance at 164.90, the Dec 30 high.  Key short-term support has been defined at 159.73, the Jan 17 low. A break would reinstate a bearish threat.             

AUDUSD TECHS: Gains Considered Corrective     

• RES 4: 0.6429 High Dec 12
• RES 3: 0.6384 High Dec 13               
• RES 2: 0.6329 50-day EMA   
• RES 1: 0.6302 High Jan 6
• PRICE: 0.6268 @ 07:58 GMT Jan 23 
• SUP 1: 0.6165/31 Low Jan 17 / 13 and the bear trigger    
• SUP 3: 0.6100 Round number support
• SUP 3: 0.6045 1.500 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
• SUP 4: 0.5994 1.618proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing

A bearish trend condition in AUDUSD remains intact and the recent recovery is considered corrective. The pair has recently breached 0.6179, Dec 31 low, maintaining the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Moving average studies are unchanged and remain in a bear-mode position too. A resumption of the downtrend would open 0.6100. The next resistance to watch is 0.6329, the 50-day EMA.

USDCAD TECHS: Key Support Is Intact For Now  

• RES 4: 1.4665 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 1.4564 3.500 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
• RES 2: 1.4539 3.382 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
• RES 1: 1.4516 High Jan 21  
• PRICE: 1.4394 @ 08:03 GMT Jan 23 
• SUP 1: 1.4261 Low Jan 20
• SUP 2: 1.4239 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.4120 Low Dec 11 
• SUP 4: 1.4011 Low Dec 5

USDCAD has traded in a volatile manner this week. Recent price action highlights an important short-term resistance at 1.4516, the Jan 21 low and a support at 1.4261, the Jan 20 low. The trend condition remains bullish and a clear breach of 1.4516 would confirm a resumption of the bull cycle. For bears, a clear break of 1.4261 and 1.4239, the 50-day EMA, would instead highlight a possible reversal.      

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (H5) Monitoring Resistance At The 20-Day EMA     

• RES 4: 133.86 High Jan 2              
• RES 3: 133.38 50-day EMA 
• RES 2: 132.32 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 132.22 High Jan 22                 
• PRICE: 131.72 @ 05:31 GMT Jan 23
• SUP 1: 131.00 Low Jan 16        
• SUP 2  131.00/130.28 Low Jan 16 / Low Jan 15 and the bear trigger           
• SUP 3: 130.44 Low Jul 5 ‘24 (cont)
• SUP 4: 130.23 Low Jul 3 ‘24 (cont)      

Bund futures are holding on to their recent gains. The Jan 15 rally   highlighted a reversal signal - a bullish engulfing candle. It suggests scope for a continued corrective phase that is allowing an oversold trend condition to unwind. Sights are on 132.32, the 20-day EMA. A clear breach of the average would strengthen the bullish theme. The medium-term trend is unchanged, it remains bearish. The bear trigger is at 130.28, the Jan 15 low.                       

BOBL TECHS: (H5) Corrective Cycle Remains In Play    

• RES 4: 117.734 50-day EMA        
• RES 3: 117.490 Low Dec 30    
• RES 2: 117.252 20-day EMA 
• RES 1: 117.180 High Jan 22                            
• PRICE: 116.940 @ 05:45 GMT Jan 23  
• SUP 1: 116.650/280 Low Jan 16 / Low Jan 14 / 15 and bear trigger                
• SUP 2: 116.210 Low Jul 12 2024 (cont) 
• SUP 3: 115.980 Low Jul 11 ‘24 (cont)
• SUP 4: 115.745 1.50 proj of the Oct 1 - 31 - Dec 2 ‘24 price swing     

A corrective phase in Bobl futures remains in play - for now - and the contract is holding on to its recent gains. The Jan 15 rally highlighted a reversal and the start of the correction. An extension higher is allowing an oversold trend condition to unwind. Key short-term resistance is seen at 117.252, the 20-day EMA. On the downside, a break of 116.280, Jan 14 / 15 low, would resume the downtrend.          

SCHATZ TECHS: (H5) Corrective Phase Intact              

• RES 4: 107.065 High Jan 2
• RES 3: 106.965 High Jan 3  
• RES 2: 106.746 20-day EMA 
• RES 1: 106.695 High Jan 21 / 22      
• PRICE: 106.615 @ 05:26 GMT Jan 23   
• SUP 1: 106.545/435 Low Jan 16 / 15 and the bear trigger             
• SUP 2: 106.375 Low Oct 31  (cont) and a key support
• SUP 3: 106.342 2.764 proj of the Dec 2 - 6 - 12 price swing
• SUP 4: 106.255 3.000 proj of the Dec 2 - 6 - 12 price swing

A medium-term bear cycle in Schatz futures remains intact and recent gains appear corrective. The Jan 15 recovery highlighted a reversal and the start of the corrective phase. Recent gains have exposed resistance at 106.746, the 20-day EMA. On the downside, 106.435, the Jan 15 low has been defined as the bear trigger. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend.                                      

GILT TECHS: (H5) Correction Extends        

• RES 4: 93.64 61.8% retracement of the Dec 3 - Jan 13 bear leg  
• RES 3: 93.09 High Dec 20    
• RES 2: 92.75 50.0% retracement of the Dec 3 - Jan 13 bear leg
• RES 1: 92.52 High Jan 22               
• PRICE: 91.95 @ Close Jan 22
• SUP 1:91.10 Low Jan 20                               
• SUP 2: 89.68/88.96 Low Jan 15 / 13 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 3: 88.87 2.764 proj of the Dec 20 -27 - Jan 2 price swing
• SUP 4: 88.53 3.000 proj of the Dec 20 -27 - Jan 2 price swing

The medium-term trend condition in Gilt futures remains bearish. However, recent gains highlight a corrective phase and signal scope for a continuation higher near-term. This week’s climb reinforces current short-term conditions. The 20-day EMA, at 91.65, has been breached. The focus is on 92.75, a Fibonacci retracement point. On the downside, the bear trigger has been defined at 88.96, the Jan 13 low. Initial support is at 91.10, the Jan 20 low.

BTP TECHS: (H5) Corrective Cycle                          

• RES 4: 122.85 High Dec 11     
• RES 3: 120.98 61.8% retracement of the Dec 11 - Jan 13 bear leg   
• RES 2: 120.45 High Jan 2   
• RES 1: 119.88 50-day EMA  
• PRICE: 119.45 @ Close Jan 22 
• SUP 1: 118.27/117.16 Low Jan 16 / 13 and the bear trigger          
• SUP 2: 116.59 76.4% retrace of the Jun - Dec ‘24 bull cycle (cont)
• SUP 3: 116.07 Low Jul 8 ‘24 (cont)
• SUP 4: 115.45 Low Jul 3 ‘24 (cont)     

The latest rally in BTP futures highlights a corrective phase. The 20-day EMA has been breached and this exposes the next firm resistance at 119.88, the 50-day EMA. Clearance of the 50-day average would strengthen a bullish condition. The medium-term trend condition remains bearish and moving average studies are in a bear-mode position. The bear trigger has been defined at 117.16, the Jan 13 low.             

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (H5) Northbound                

• RES 4: 5298.50 1.500 proj of the Nov 21 - Dec 9 - 20 price swing
• RES 3: 5268.50 1.500 proj of the Dec 20 - Jan 8 - 13 price swing      
• RES 2: 5261.57 1.236 proj of the Nov 21 - Dec 9 - 20 price swing 
• RES 1: 5245.00 Intraday high          
• PRICE: 5213.00 @ 06:26 GMT Jan 23  
• SUP 1: 5113.00 Low Jan 17         
• SUP 2: 5053.69/4931.00 20-day EMA / Low Jan 13    
• SUP 3: 4829.00 Low Dec 20 and key short-term support
• SUP 4: 4775.00 Low Nov 29 

A bull cycle in the Eurostoxx 50 futures contract remains intact and the contract traded higher on Wednesday. Recent gains have resulted in a breach of 5054.00, the Jan 8 high, to confirm a resumption of the uptrend. The focus is on a climb towards 5261.57, a Fibonacci projection point. Key short-term support has been defined at 4931.00, the Jan 13 low. Initial firm support lies at 5053.69, the 20-day EMA.         

E-MINI S&P: (H5) Northbound       

• RES 4: 6178.75 High Dec 6 and key resistance   
• RES 3: 6163.75 High Dec 16  
• RES 2: 6148.00 High Dec 18 
• RES 1: 6135.75 High Jan 22            
• PRICE: 6112.25 @ 07:24 GMT Jan 23 
• SUP 1: 6068.25/5961.75 High Jan 6 / Low Jan 16         
• SUP 2: 5879.50/5809.00 Low Jan 15 / 13 and key S/T support
• SUP 3: 5784.00 Low Nov 4
• SUP 4: 5698.25 50.0% retracement of the Aug 5 - Dec 6 bull leg

S&P E-Minis have traded higher this week, marking an extension of last week’s bull phase. Gains undermine a recent bearish theme. The contract has traded through the 50-day EMA and note that resistance at 6107.50, the Dec 26 high, has been breached. The clear break strengthens a bullish theme and opens 6178.75, the Dec 6 high and key resistance. Initial firm support to watch is 5961.75, the Jan 16 low.  

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (H5) Monitoring Support                    

• RES 4: $85.85 - 1.382 proj of the Sep 10 - Oct 7 - 29 price swing    
• RES 3: $84.63 - High Apr 12 ‘24 and a key M/T resistance
• RES 2: $83.79 - High Jul 5 and a key resistance
• RES 1: $82.63 - High Jan 15           
• PRICE: $78.61 @ 07:13 GMT Jan 23 
• SUP 1: $78.45 - Low Jan 21    
• SUP 2: $77.96 - 20-day EMA 
• SUP 3: $75.76 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: $71.59 - Low Dec 20

Brent futures remain in an uptrend despite the latest pullback - a correction. Recent gains confirm a continuation of the bull cycle and an acceleration of it. Key resistance at $79.50, the Oct 7 high, has been breached, strengthening the bullish theme and this opens $83.79, the Jul 5 high. Key short-term support is $77.96, the 20-day EMA. The current pullback is allowing an overbought condition to unwind.             

WTI TECHS: (H5) Corrective Pullback              

• RES 4: $83.40 - 76.4% retrace of the Jul 5 - Sep 10 bear leg (cont)    
• RES 3: $81.26 - 3.382 proj of the Nov 18 - 22 - Dec 6 price swing  
• RES 2: $80.63 - 3.236 proj of the Nov 18 - 22 - Dec 6 price swing
• RES 1: $79.48 - High Apr 12 ‘24 and a key resistance   
• PRICE: $75.06 @ 07:19 GMT Jan 23 
• SUP 1: $74.20 - 20-day EMA     
• SUP 2: $71.90 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $68.05 - Low Dec 20
• SUP 4: $66.55 - Low Dec 6

The trend structure in WTI futures remains bullish despite the latest pullback. The move down is allowing an overbought trend reading to unwind. The latest strong impulsive climb resulted in a breach of $75.91, the Oct 8 high. Attention is on $79.48, the Apr 12 ‘24 high. A clear break of this hurdle would strengthen the bullish theme and open 80.63, a 3.236 projection of the Nov 18 - 22 - Dec 6 price swing. Support to watch is the 20-day EMA, at $74.20.             

GOLD TECHS: Approaching The All-Time High          

• RES 4: 2817.6 - 1.236 proj of the Nov 14 - Dec 12 - 19 price swing     
• RES 3: $2800.0 - Round number resistance  
• RES 2: $2790.1 - Oct 31 ‘24 all-time high   
• RES 1: $2763.5 - High Jan 22     
• PRICE: $2752.8 @ 07:25 GMT Jan 23
• SUP 1: $2683.8/2660.9 - 20- and 50-day EMA values   
• SUP 2: $2614.8/2583.6 - Low Jan 6 / Low Dec 19
• SUP 3: $2564.4 - Low Nov 18 
• SUP 4: $2536.9 - Low Nov 14 and a key support 

Gold continues to trade higher this week. The yellow metal has breached resistance at 2726.2, the Dec 12 high and a key short-term resistance. The clear break of this hurdle strengthens a bullish theme and signals scope for an extension near-term. Sights are on $2790.1, the Oct 31 all-time high. On the downside, the first key support to watch is $2660.9, the 50-day EMA. A reversal lower and a breach of this average would reinstate a bearish threat.                  

SILVER TECHS: Holding On To Its Recent Gains                    

• RES 4: $34.903 - High Oct 23 and the bull trigger  
• RES 3: $33.125 - High Nov 1 
• RES 2: $32.338 - High Dec 12 and a key resistance  
• RES 1: $30.974 - High Jan 16                              
• PRICE: $30.617 @ 08:08 GMT Jan 23  
• SUP 1: $29.509/28.748 - Low Jan 13 / Low Dec 19 and bear trigger        
• SUP 2: $28.446 - 76.4% retracement of the Aug 8 - Oct 23 bull cycle 
• SUP 3: $27.686 - Low Sep 6 
• SUP 4: $26.451 - Low Aug 8  

A bear cycle in Silver that started Oct 23 remains in play - for now - and recent gains still appear to be corrective. The metal is holding on to its recent gains and this does suggest scope for a continuation near-term. An extension would expose key resistance at $32.338, the Dec 12 high. Clearance of this level would signal a reversal. On the downside, support to watch is $29.509, the Jan 13 low, and $29.748, the Dec 19 low and the bear trigger.