MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Gold Rally Breaches $4,000/oz

Price Signal Summary – Gold Rally Extends, Breaching $4k

• The trend condition in S&P E-Minis is unchanged and the direction remains up. Recent fresh cycle highs confirm a continuation of the uptrend and maintain the positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Eurostoxx 50 futures remain in a bull-mode condition and short-term weakness is considered corrective. The recent breach of key resistance at 5525.00, the Aug 22 high, confirms a resumption of the uptrend.
• The short-term condition in GBPUSD remains bearish. Initial key resistance to watch is unchanged at 1.3537, the Sep 23 high and a near-term pivot level. A bullish theme remains intact in USDJPY and this week’s gains reinforce current trend conditions. The move higher has resulted in a breach of the key medium-term resistance at 150.92, the Aug 1 high. The AUDUSD uptrend remains intact and the latest pullback is considered corrective. The pair has again pierced support at the 50-day EMA, at 0.6563. A clear break of this average would signal scope for a deeper retracement and expose 0.6527.
• A bull cycle in Gold remains in play and this week’s breach of $4000.00 reinforces the uptrend. The move higher maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. WTI futures have recovered from the most recent low print - a correction. A bearish theme remains intact. Last week’s sell-off resulted in a move through key support and the bear trigger at $60.85, the Aug 13 low.
• Bund futures are in consolidation mode and trade closer to last week’s highs. The recent climb appears corrective. Initial resistance is seen at 128.84, a Fibonacci retracement point. Gilt futures traded lower Tuesday, extending the latest pullback. Attention is on the near-term support at 90.26, the Sep 26 low. A breach of this level would signal scope for an extension towards 89.94, a Fibonacci retracement point.

[GLOBAL] MNI Tech Trend Monitor - Highlighting Key Longer-Term Trends:
MNI Tech Trend Monitor: https://emedia.marketnews.com/marketnewsintl/MNITechTrendMonitor.pdf

We introduce the MNI Tech Trend Monitor - This document highlights a selection of key longer-term trends that we have identified in markets that could be reaching inflection points, trend reversals/extensions or technically significant levels.

Covering:

• UK Gilt 10y Yield
• UK Gilt 30y Yield
• ICE USD Index
• Europe Banking Stock Index (SX7E)

FOREIGN EXCHANGE    

EURUSD TECHS: Corrective Cycle Extends  

• RES 4: 1.1919 High Sep 17 and a bull trigger
• RES 3: 1.1820 High Sep 23
• RES 2: 1.1779 High Oct 1 and a key short-term resistance  
• RES 1: 1.1723 20-day EMA  
• PRICE: 1.1613 @ 06:10 BST Oct 8
• SUP 1: 1.1608 Low Sep 3   
• SUP 2: 1.1574 Low Aug 27
• SUP 3: 1.1516 76.4% retracement of the Aug 1 - Sep 17 bull leg  
• SUP 4: 1.1392 Low Aug 1 and bear trigger.

EURUSD is trading lower as the current corrective cycle extends. This week’s move down has resulted in a breach of the 50-day EMA, and support at 1.1646, the Sep 25 low. This paves the way for an extension towards 1.1574, the Aug 27 low. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant medium-term uptrend. Initial firm resistance to watch is 1.1779, the Oct 1 high. A break of this level would signal a bull reversal.        

GBPUSD TECHS: Short-Term Bear Cycle Intact    

• RES 4: 1.3789 High Jul 1 and key resistance    
• RES 3: 1.3726 High Sep 17 
• RES 2: 1.3661 High Sep 18
• RES 1: 1.3537 High Sep 23 and a pivot level 
• PRICE: 1.3388 @ 06:23 BST Oct 8
• SUP 1: 1.3324 Low Sep 25 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 2: 1.3282 Low Aug 6
• SUP 3: 1.3254 Low Aug 4
• SUP 4: 1.3144 38.2% retracement of the Jan 13 - Jul 1 bull cycle          

The short-term condition in GBPUSD remains bearish. Initial key resistance to watch is unchanged at 1.3537, the Sep 23 high and a near-term pivot level. Clearance of this hurdle would signal a potential reversal. Attention is on support at 1.3333, the Sep 3 low. It has recently been pierced, a clear breach of this support would strengthen a bearish theme and open 1.3282, the Aug 6 low.           

EURGBP TECHS: Support At The 50-day EMA Remains Exposed           

• RES 4: 0.8835 High May 3 2023  
• RES 3: 0.8800 Round number resistance 
• RES 2: 0.8769 High Jul 28 and the bull trigger 
• RES 1: 0.8751 High Sep 25  
• PRICE: 0.8677 @ 06:33 BST Oct 8
• SUP 1: 0.8673/8597 50-day EMA / Low Aug 14 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 0.8633 Low Sep 15 
• SUP 3: 0.8562 50.0% retracement May 29 - Jul 28 upleg
• SUP 4: 0.8540 Low Jun 30

The latest pullback in EURGBP appears corrective and the trend condition is bullish. Attention is on initial firm support at 0.8673, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this level would signal scope for a deeper retracement. Note that the key trend support lies at  0.8597, the Aug 14 low. A breach of this level would highlight a stronger reversal. For bulls, key resistance and the bull trigger is 0.8769, the Jul 28 high. 

USDJPY TECHS: Impulsive Bull Wave           

• RES 4: 154.80 High Feb 12 
• RES 3: 154.39 76.4% retracement of the Jan 10 - Apr 22 bear leg
• RES 2: 153.15 High Feb 14  
• RES 1: 152.64 Intraday high 
• PRICE: 152.47 @ 07:22 BST Oct 8
• SUP 1: 150.92 High Sep 26  
• SUP 2: 149.96 High    
• SUP 3: 148.46 20-day EMA  
• SUP 4: 147.84 50-day EMA

A bullish theme remains intact in USDJPY and this week’s gains reinforce current trend conditions. The move higher has resulted in a breach of the key medium-term resistance at 150.92, the Aug 1 high. The clear break of it confirms a resumption of the bull leg that started Apr 22. This paves the way for an extension towards 154.39, a Fibonacci retracement point. Initial support to watch lies at 150.92, the Aug 1 high.  

EURJPY TECHS: Fresh Record High

• RES 4: 179.50 Top of a bull channel drawn from the Feb 28 low  
• RES 3: 178.94 1.236 proj of the Jul 31 - Sep 29 - Oct 2 price swing
• RES 2: 177.67 1.000 proj of the Jul 31 - Sep 29 - Oct 2 price swing
• RES 1: 177.46 Intraday high 
• PRICE: 176.99 @ 07:58 BST Oct 8
• SUP 1: 175.13 Hgh Sep 29 
• SUP 2: 174.03 20-day EMA   
• SUP 3: 173.24 High Oct 3 and a gap low on the daily chart    
• SUP 4: 172.27 Low Oct 2 and a key medium-term support  

The trend set-up in EURJPY remains bullish and fresh cycle highs this week strengthens the bull condition. The cross has cleared resistance at 175.13, the Sep 29 high, to confirm a resumption of the primary uptrend and hit all-time highs in the process. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant medium-term uptrend. Key short-term support has been defined at 172.27, the Oct 2 low.  

AUDUSD TECHS: Monitoring Support  

• RES 4: 0.6763 1.382 proj of the Jun 23 - Jul 24 - Aug 21 price swing
• RES 3: 0.6726 1.236 proj of the Jun 23 - Jul 24 - Aug 21 price swing
• RES 2: 0.6660/6707 High Sep 18 / 17 and key resistance
• RES 1: 0.6629 High Sep 30 & Oct 01
• PRICE: 0.6564 @ 08.06 BST Oct 8
• SUP 1: 0.6527/21 61.8% of the Aug 21 - Sep 17 bull leg / Low Sep 26 
• SUP 2: 0.6484 76.4% retracement of the Aug 21 - Sep 17 bull leg
• SUP 3: 0.6463/6415 Low Aug 27 / Low Aug 21 / 22 and a bear trigger 
• SUP 4: 0.6373 Low Jun 23

The AUDUSD uptrend remains intact and the latest pullback is considered corrective. The pair has again pierced support at the 50-day EMA, at 0.6563. A clear break of this average would signal scope for a deeper retracement and expose 0.6527 once again, a Fibonacci retracement. For bulls, a reversal higher would refocus attention on 0.6707, the Sep 17 high. Initial resistance to watch is 0.6629, the Sep 30 and Oct 1 high.    

USDCAD TECHS: Bullish Wave  

• RES 4: 1.4111 High Apr 10 
• RES 3: 1.4083 3.0% Upper Bollinger Band
• RES 2: 1.4019 38.2% retracement of the Feb 3 - Jun 16 bear leg
• RES 1: 1.3982 200-dma
• PRICE: 1.3964 @ 08:15 BST Oct 8
• SUP 1: 1.3889/3839 20- and 50-day EMA values  
• SUP 2: 1.3727 Low Aug 29 and a bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.3689 Low Jul 28  
• SUP 4: 1.3637 Low Jul 25  

USDCAD continues to trade just ahead of its recent highs. A bull cycle remains intact. The breach of 1.3959, the Sep 26 high, reinforces current conditions. The move higher maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Note too that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on 1.4019, a Fibonacci retracement point. On the downside, first key support lies at 1.3834, the 50-day EMA.    

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (Z5) Monitoring Resistance           

• RES 4: 129.50 High Aug 5  
• RES 3: 129.44 High Sep 10 and key short-term resistance     
• RES 2: 129.13 High Sep 17 
• RES 1: 128.84 61.8% retracement of the Sep 10 - 25 bear leg    
• PRICE: 128.60 @ 06:53 BST Oct 8
• SUP 1: 128.24/127.88 Low Oct 1 / Low Sep 25       
• SUP 2: 127.61 Low Sep 3 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 127.46 1.00 proj of the Aug 14 - 15 - 28 price swing  
• SUP 4: 127.13 1.236 proj of the Aug 14 - 15 - 28 price swing  

Bund futures are in consolidation mode and trade closer to last week’s highs. The recent climb appears corrective. Initial resistance is seen at 128.84, a Fibonacci retracement point. A break of this level would signal scope for a stronger recovery and potentially expose key resistance at 129.44, the Sep 10 high. For bears, a resumption of weakness would open 127.88, Sep 25 low. Key medium-term support and the bear trigger lies at 127.61, Sep 3 low.           

BOBL TECHS: (Z5) Trading Below Resistance   

• RES 4: 118.170 Low Sep 10      
• RES 3: 118.090 High Sep 17 and a key short-term resistance 
• RES 2: 118.040 High Sep 18   
• RES 1: 117.970 High Oct 6   
• PRICE: 117.870 @ 05:46 BST Oct 8
• SUP 1: 117.630/470 Low Oct 1 / Low Sep 25  
• SUP 2: 117.450 1.000 proj of the Sep 8 - 12 - 17 price swing  
• SUP 3: 117.299 1.236 proj of the Sep 8 - 12 - 17 price swing  
• SUP 4: 117.080 Low Sep 2 (cont.) 

Recent gains in Bobl futures still appear corrective and the trend condition remains bearish. A price sequence of lower lows and lower highs is intact, and on the continuation chart moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Sights are on 117.450, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, key short-term resistance is 118.090, the Sep 18 high. A move above this level would signal a potential reversal.      

SCHATZ TECHS: (Z5) Bear Threat Remains Present  

• RES 4: 107.240 High Aug 4 
• RES 3: 107.225 High Aug 27 and the bull trigger 
• RES 2: 107.145/190 High Sep 11 / High Sep 5 and 8
• RES 1: 107.050 Low Aug 25 and Sep 2 and a recent breakout level 
• PRICE: 107.015 @ 06:02 BST Oct 8
• SUP 1: 106.920 Low Sep 25 and the bear trigger   
• SUP 2: 106.907 1.618 proj of the the Aug 27 - Sep 2 - 8 price swing  
• SUP 3: 106.900 Round number support
• SUP 4: 106.881 1.764 proj of the the Aug 27 - Sep 2 - 8 price swing

The trend structure in Schatz futures remains bearish and recent gains appear corrective. A fresh cycle low on Sep 25, confirmed a resumption of the downtrend. This maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. A resumption of weakness would open 106.907 next, a Fibonacci projection, ahead of the 106.900 handle. On the upside, initial firm resistance is at 107.050, the Aug 25 and Sep 2 low.       

GILT TECHS: (Z5) Bearish Theme        

• RES 4: 92.06 High Aug 14
• RES 3: 92.00 Round number resistance     
• RES 2: 91.28/82 High Sep 24 / 11
• RES 1: 91.08 High Oct 1  
• PRICE: 90.54  @ Close Oct 7
• SUP 1: 90.26/89.94 Low Sep 26 / 76.4% of the Sep 3 - 11 correction     
• SUP 2: 90.31/89.36 Low Sep 4 / 3
• SUP 3: 89.36 Low Sep 3  
• SUP 4: 89.22 1.618 proj of the Aug 21 - 27 - 28 price swing  

Gilt futures traded lower Tuesday, extending the latest pullback. Attention is on the near-term support at 90.26, the Sep 26 low. A breach of this level would signal scope for an extension towards 89.94, a Fibonacci retracement point. Note that on the continuation chart, moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Key medium-term support lies at 89.36, the Sep 3 low. First resistance is 91.08, high Oct 1.     

BTP TECHS: (Z5) Still Looking For Gains     

• RES 4: 122.56 0.764 proj of the Apr 9 - May 8 - 14 price swing (cont)
• RES 3: 121.88 0.618 proj of the Apr 9 - May 8 - 14 price swing (cont) 
• RES 2: 121.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 120.10/120.74 High Oct 1 / High Aug 5 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 119.78 @ Close Oct 7
• SUP 1: 119.07/118.36 Low Sep 25 / 3 and key support         
• SUP 2: 118.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 117.70 2.236 proj of the Aug 5 - 12 - 14 price swing  
• SUP 4: 117.36 2.500 proj of the Aug 5 - 12 - 14 price swing 

Short-term weakness in BTP futures still appears corrective and the trend condition remains bullish. The contract is trading in a range for now. Key short-term resistance and the bull trigger is 120.74, the Aug 5 high. A break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the trend. Initial support to watch lies at 119.07, the Sep 25 low. Clearance of this level would allow for a deeper short-term retracement towards key support at 118.36, the Sep 3 low.                         

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (Z5) Bull Cycle Intact   

• RES 4: 5777.41 1.382 proj of the Aug 1 - 22 - Sep 2 price swing
• RES 3: 5727.18 1.236 proj of the Aug 1 - 22 - Sep 2 price swing  
• RES 2: 5700.00 Round number resistance 
• RES 1: 5689.00 High Oct 2       
• PRICE: 5619.00 @ 07:55 BST Oct 8
• SUP 1: 5615.00 Intraday low  
• SUP 2: 5527.10 20-day EMA  
• SUP 3: 5455.98 50-day EMA   
• SUP 4: 5366.00 Low Sep 17    

Eurostoxx 50 futures remain in a bull-mode condition and short-term weakness is considered corrective. The recent breach of key resistance at 5525.00, the Aug 22 high, confirms a resumption of the uptrend. Sights are on the 5700.00 handle next, with potential for a test of 5727.18 further out, a Fibonacci projection. MA studies are in a bull-mode position too, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Initial firm support is 5527.10, the 20-day EMA.        

E-MINI S&P: (Z5) Trend Needle Points North  

• RES 4: 6831.38 2.500 proj of the Aug 20 - 28 - Sep 2 price swing 
• RES 3: 6819.25 1.500 proj of the Aug 1 - 15 - 20 price swing
• RES 2: 6812.29 2.382 proj of the Aug 20 - 28 - Sep 2 price swing
• RES 1: 6802.75 High Oct 7 
• PRICE: 6761.50 @ 07:31 BST Oct 8
• SUP 1: 6700.59 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 6624.25 Low Sep 25 
• SUP 3: 6582.78 50-day EMA 
• SUP 4: 6506.50 Low Sep 5 

The trend condition in S&P E-Minis is unchanged and the direction remains up.  Recent fresh cycle highs confirm a continuation of the uptrend and maintain the positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on 6812.29, a Fibonacci projection. Initial support to watch is at the 20-day EMA, at 6700.59. It has recently been pierced, a clear break of it would signal scope for a deeper pullback.      

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (Z5) Bear Theme Remains Intact        

• RES 4: $78.63 - 2.618 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 3: $76.82 - 2.382 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 2: $75.43 - High Jun 23 and a bull trigger 
• RES 1: $69.87/71.20 - High Sep 26 / High Jul 30 and key resistance 
• PRICE: $65.98 @ 07:21 BST Oct 8
• SUP 1: $64.00 - Low Oct 2
• SUP 2: $60.85 - Low May 30 
• SUP 3: $58.50 - Low May 5
• SUP 4: $57.88 - Low Apr 9 and a key support   

Brent futures continue to trade above their recent lows. A bearish theme in the contract remains intact and short-term gains are considered corrective. Last week’s sell-off saw the contract breach key support and the bear trigger at $64.20, the Jun 30 low. This strengthens a bearish theme and paves the way for an extension towards $60.85, the May 30 low. Initial firm resistance has been defined at $69.87, the Sep 26 high.      

WTI TECHS: (X5) Corrective Bounce  

• RES 4: $76.89 - 2.764 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 3: $74.79- 2.500 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 2: $73.39 - High Jun 23 and a bull trigger 
• RES 1: $66.42/68.43 - High Sep 29 and key resistance / High Jul 30   
• PRICE: $62.30 @ 07:24 BST Oct 8
• SUP 1: $60.40 - Low Oct 2 
• SUP 2: $57.50 - Low May 30
• SUP 3: $54.89 - Low May 5
• SUP 4: $54.10 - Low Apr 9 and a key support

WTI futures have recovered from the most recent low print - a correction. A bearish theme remains intact. Last week’s sell-off resulted in a move through key support and the bear trigger at $60.85, the Aug 13 low. Clearance of this level strengthens the bear threat and paves the way for an extension towards $57.50, the May 30 low. Initial firm resistance has been defined at $66.42, the Sep 29 high. Clearance of this level would highlight a reversal.    

GOLD TECHS: Impulsive Rally Extends       

• RES 4: $4113.5 - 2.618 proj of the May 15 - Jun 16 - 30 price swing
• RES 3: $4100.0 - Round number resistance  
• RES 2: $4074.5 - 2.500 proj of the May 15 - Jun 16 - 30 price swing
• RES 1: $4037.1 - Intraday high               
• PRICE: $4027.1 @ 07:28 BST Oct 8
• SUP 1: $3884.1 - Low Oct 6  
• SUP 2: $3775.3 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: $3717.6 - Low Sep 24
• SUP 4: $3614.9 - 50-day EMA  

A bull cycle in Gold remains in play and this week’s breach of $4000.0 reinforces the uptrend. The move higher maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Furthermore, momentum studies highlight a condition known as momentum drag - where momentum remains in overbought territory and moves sideways - a bullish signal. Sights are on $4074.54, a Fibonacci projection. Support to watch is $3775.3, 20-day EMA.                  

SILVER TECHS: Bull Wave Extends 

• RES 4: $49.804 - All-time high Apr 2011 and major resistance  
• RES 3: $49.444 - 3.236 proj of the Sep 4 - 16 - 17 price swing
• RES 2: $49.000 - Round number resistance 
• RES 1: $48.939 - Intraday high     
• PRICE: $48.674 @ 08:19 BST Oct 8
• SUP 1: $45.056 - 20-day EMA 
• SUP 2: $42.106 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $40.404 - Low Sep 4   
• SUP 4: $38.087 - Low Aug 27

Trend signals in Silver remain bullish. The metal has traded to a fresh cycle this week, as the bull cycle extends. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position too, reinforcing current conditions. Sights are on the $49.00 handle next. Clearance of this level would pave the way for a climb towards $49.444, a 3.236 projection of the Sep 4 - 16 - 17 price swing. Initial firm support to watch lies at $45.056, the 20-day EMA.