MNI Daily Technical Analysis - Gold Heads North

Price Signal Summary - Gold Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat  

• In the equity space, a bull cycle in S&P E-Minis remains intact and the contract traded to a fresh cycle high yesterday. Price has breached the 6700.00 handle and this signals scope for an extension towards 6787.63, a 1.382 projection of the Aug 1 - 15 - 20 price swing. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend and positive market sentiment. Initial support to watch lies at 6616.34, the 20-day EMA. EUROSTOXX 50 futures are trading closer to their recent highs. The contract recently traded through resistance around the 20-day EMA - a bullish development - and the subsequent rally reinforces a bullish theme. The move signals potential for a climb towards 5525.00, the Aug 22 high and a bull trigger. On the downside, key support has been defined at 5302.00, the Sep 2 low. First support lies at 5409.70, the 20-day EMA.                                            
• In FX, the trend theme in EURUSD remains bullish and the recent pullback is considered corrective. Resistance at 1.1743, the Aug 22 high, has recently been cleared, reinforcing a bull cycle. Gains in the first half of last week resulted in a climb above 1.1829 the Jul 01 high and bull trigger. Clearance of this hurdle confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend and opens 1.1923 next, the 2.00 projection of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - 247 price swing. Support to watch is 1.1672. the 50-day EMA. A bullish theme in GBPUSD remains intact and the move down from the Sep 17 high is considered corrective - for now. However, the pair has traded through the 50-day EMA and this signals scope for a deeper retracement. The next support to watch lies at 1.3449, a trendline support drawn from the Aug 1 low. For bulls, a resumption of gains would refocus attention on key short-term resistance at 1.3726, the Sep 17 high. USDJPY recovered sharply from last week’s low and the pair is holding onto the bulk of its latest gains. A bullish candle pattern on Sep 17 - a hammer formation - provided an early reversal signal. A continuation higher would open 149.14, the Sep 3 high. Pivot support is 145.49, the Sep 17 low.                             
• On the commodity front, Gold is in a clear bull cycle and shallow short-term pullbacks remain corrective. A fresh all-time high once again, yesterday and today, confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend. The next objective is the $3800.0 handle. Initial firm support lies at $3594.0, the 20-day EMA. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. In the oil space, the trend condition in WTI is unchanged - a bear cycle remains intact and recent gains are considered corrective. The pullback from the Sep 2 high highlights a possible reversal and the end of a corrective phase between Aug 13 - Sep 2. Initial resistance to watch is $65.43, the Sep 2 high. A stronger resumption of weakness would open $57.50, the May 30 low.                      
• In the FI space, Bund futures remain below their latest highs and are trading closer to their recent lows. Key support and the bear trigger lies at 127.61, the Sep 3 low. A break if this level would cancel a recent bullish theme and confirm a continuation of the medium-term bear cycle. For bulls, a reversal higher would refocus attention on key resistance at 129.44, the Sep 10 high. First resistance is at 128.60, the 20-day EMA. A bull cycle in Gilt futures gapped lower last Friday extending the pullback from its recent highs. Despite the sell-off, a bull cycle remains intact and a recent rally highlights a stronger corrective cycle. Note that the move higher has allowed an oversold trend condition to unwind. Price has breached initial firm resistance at 90.84, the Aug 28 and 29 high. A resumption of gains would  open 92.06, the Aug 14 high. Initial support lies at 90.65 (pierced), Sep 5 low.

Highlighting Key Longer-Term Trends:

MNI Tech Trend Monitor: https://emedia.marketnews.com/marketnewsintl/MNITechTrendMonitor.pdf

We introduce the MNI Tech Trend Monitor - This document highlights a selection of key longer-term trends that we have identified in markets that could be reaching inflection points, trend reversals/extensions or technically significant levels.

Covering:

• UK Gilt 10y Yield
• UK Gilt 30y Yield
• ICE USD Index
• Europe Banking Stock Index (SX7E)

FOREIGN EXCHANGE    

EURUSD TECHS: Remains Above Support 

• RES 4: 1.2063 2.236 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - 247 price swing
• RES 3: 1.2000 Round number resistance 
• RES 2: 1.1923 2.00 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - 247 price swing
• RES 1: 1.1919 High Sep 17 and key short-term resistance 
• PRICE: 1.1795 @ 06:01 BST Sep 23
• SUP 1: 1.1726/1672 Low Sep 22 / 50-day EMA 
• SUP 2: 1.1574 Low Aug 27
• SUP 3: 1.1528 Low Aug 5
• SUP 4: 1.1392 Low Aug 1 and bear trigger.

The trend theme in EURUSD remains bullish and the recent pullback is considered corrective. Resistance at 1.1743, the Aug 22 high, has recently been cleared, reinforcing a bull cycle. Gains in the first half of last week resulted in a climb above 1.1829 the Jul 01 high and bull trigger. Clearance of this hurdle confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend and opens 1.1923 next, a Fibonacci projection. Support to watch is 1.1672. the 50-day EMA.    

GBPUSD TECHS: Trendline Support Intact For Now  

• RES 4: 1.3893 1.236 proj of the Aug 1 - 14 - Sep 3 price swing     
• RES 3: 1.3789 High Jul 1 and key resistance
• RES 2: 1.3753 High Jul 2
• RES 1: 1.3661/3726 High Sep 18 / 17 
• PRICE: 1.3510 @ 06:17 BST Sep 23
• SUP 1: 1.3453 Low Sep 22
• SUP 2: 1.3449 Trendline support drawn from the Aug 1 low
• SUP 3: 1.3333 Low Sep 3 and a key support 
• SUP 4: 1.3282 Low Aug 6      

A bullish theme in GBPUSD remains intact and the move down from the Sep 17 high is considered corrective - for now. However, the pair has traded through the 50-day EMA and this signals scope for a deeper retracement. The next support to watch lies at 1.3449, a trendline support drawn from the Aug 1 low. For bulls, a resumption of gains would refocus attention on key short-term resistance at 1.3726, the Sep 17 high.          

EURGBP TECHS: Approaching Resistance          

• RES 4: 0.8835 High May 3 2023  
• RES 3: 0.8800 Round number resistance 
• RES 2: 0.8769 High Jul 28 and the bull trigger 
• RES 1: 0.8746 Intraday high  
• PRICE: 0.8741 @ 10:17 BST Sep 23
• SUP 1: 0.8650/8597 50-day EMA / Low Aug 14 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 0.8562 50.0% retracement May 29 - Jul 28 upleg 
• SUP 3: 0.8540 Low Jun 30 
• SUP 4: 0.8514 61.8% retracement May 29 - Jul 28 upleg

Recent weakness in EURGBP has been corrective and last week’s recovery confirmed the end of the latest corrective phase. Support to watch lies at 0.8597, the Aug 14 low. Clearance of this level would cancel a bull theme and reinstate a recent bearish threat. For bulls, the resumption of gains opens the key resistance and the bull trigger is at 0.8769, the Jul 28 high. First support is 0.8650, the 50-day EMA. 

USDJPY TECHS: Bullish Reversal       

• RES 4: 151.62 61.8% retracement of the Jan 10 - Apr 22 bear leg
• RES 3: 150.92 High Aug 1 and a key resistance 
• RES 2: 149.64 76.4% retracement of the Aug 1 - Sep 17 bear leg 
• RES 1: 148.38/149.14 High Sep 22 / High Sep 3  
• PRICE: 147.76 @ 06:55 BST Sep 23
• SUP 1: 146.77/145.49 Low Sep 18 / 17 and a pivot support 
• SUP 2: 145.40 50% retracement of the Apr - Aug upleg
• SUP 3: 144.10 61.8% retracement of the Apr - Aug upleg
• SUP 4: 143.45 Low Jul 3 

USDJPY recovered sharply from last week’s low and the pair is holding onto the bulk of its latest gains. A bullish candle pattern on Sep 17 - a hammer formation - provided an early reversal signal. Last Wednesday, the pair breached a number of important short-term support levels, however, this has not confirmed a bearish threat. A continuation higher would open 149.14, the Sep 3 high. Pivot support is 145.49, the Sep 17 low.      

EURJPY TECHS: Bullish Trend Condition    

• RES 4: 177.08 2.000 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - Apr 7 price swing 
• RES 3: 175.43 High Jul 11 ‘24 and a key medium-term resistance
• RES 2: 174.86 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - Apr 7 price swing
• RES 1: 174.50 High Sep 19 
• PRICE: 174.28 @ 07:16 BST Sep 23
• SUP 1: 173.14/171.93 20- and 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 170.97 Low Aug 14 
• SUP 3: 169.73/45 Low Jul 31 / 23.6% of the Feb 28 - Jul 28 bull leg 
• SUP 4: 168.46 Low Jul 1   

The trend set-up in EURJPY is unchanged, it remains bullish and price is trading at its recent highs. The cross last week breached resistance at 173.97, the Jul 28 high and a bull trigger. This confirms a resumption of the medium-term uptrend and maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on 174.86, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, first support to watch lies at 173.14, the 20-day EMA.

AUDUSD TECHS: Corrective Cycle In Play   

• RES 4: 0.6793 1.500 proj of the Jun 23 - Jul 24 - Aug 21 price swing
• RES 3: 0.6763 1.382 proj of the Jun 23 - Jul 24 - Aug 21 price swing
• RES 2: 0.6726 1.236 proj of the Jun 23 - Jul 24 - Aug 21 price swing
• RES 1: 0.6660/6707 High Sep 18 / 17
• PRICE: 0.6586 @ 08:07 BST Sep 23
• SUP 1: 0.6575/6547 Low Sep 22 / 50-day EMA 
• SUP 2: 0.6527 61.8% retracement of the Aug 21 - Sep 17 bull leg  
• SUP 3: 0.6463/6415 Low Aug 27 / Low Aug 21 / 22 and a bear trigger 
• SUP 4: 0.6373 Low Jun 23

The AUDUSD uptrend remains intact and the latest pullback is considered corrective - for now. The recent rally plus the breach of 0.6625, the Jul 24 high and bull trigger, confirms a resumption of the uptrend. The climb opens the 0.6726 next, a Fibonacci projection. MA studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend. Key support to watch is 0.6415, the Aug 21 / 22 low. Initial firm support to watch is 0.6547, the 50-day EMA.   

USDCAD TECHS: Remains Above Support For Now  

• RES 4: 1.4019 38.2% retracement of the Feb 3 - Jun 16 bear leg 
• RES 3: 1.3925 High Aug 22 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 1.3890 High Sep 11
• RES 1: 1.3848 High Sep 15 
• PRICE: 1.3838 @ 08:13 BST Sep 23
• SUP 1: 1.3727 Low Aug 29 and a bear trigger  
• SUP 2: 1.3709 61.8% retracement of the Jul 23 - Aug 22 bull cycle
• SUP 3: 1.3658 76.4% retracement of the Jul 23 - Aug 22 bull cycle 
• SUP 4: 1.3637 Low Jul 25  

A sharp sell-off in USDCAD early last week resulted in a break of the 20-and-50-day EMAs. This undermines a recent bullish theme and exposes key short-term support at 1.3727, the Aug 27 low. A clear break of this level would strengthen a bearish threat and signal scope for a deeper retracement. For bulls, the pair is off its recent lows. Resistance levels to watch are; 1.3890, the Sep 11 high, and 1.3925, the Aug 22 high and bull trigger.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (Z5) Trading Closer To Its Recent Lows      

• RES 4: 129.50 High Aug 5  
• RES 3: 129.44 High Sep 10 and key short-term resistance     
• RES 2: 129.13 High Sep 17 
• RES 1: 128.60 20-day EMA   
• PRICE: 128.25 @ 05:27 BST Sep 23
• SUP 1: 128.01 Low Sep 23       
• SUP 2: 127.61 Low Sep 3 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 127.46 1.00 proj of the Aug 14 - 15 - 28 price swing  
• SUP 4: 127.13 1.236 proj of the Aug 14 - 15 - 28 price swing  

Bund futures remain below their latest highs and are trading closer to their recent lows. Key support and the bear trigger lies at 127.61, the Sep 3 low. A break if this level would cancel a recent bullish theme and confirm a continuation of the medium-term bear cycle. For bulls, a reversal higher would refocus attention on key resistance at 129.44, the Sep 10 high. First resistance is at 128.60, the 20-day EMA.            

BOBL TECHS: (Z5) Bearish Theme   

• RES 4: 118.090 High Sep 17 and a key short-term resistance       
• RES 3: 117.949 20-day EMA  
• RES 2: 117.850 High Sep 19 
• RES 1: 117.810 High Sep 22   
• PRICE: 117.760 @ 05:56 BST Sep 23
• SUP 1: 117.601 0.764 proj of the Sep 8 - 12 - 17 price swing  
• SUP 2: 117.450 1.000 proj of the Sep 8 - 12 - 17 price swing  
• SUP 3: 117.299 1.236 proj of the Sep 8 - 12 - 17 price swing  
• SUP 4: 117.080 Low Sep 2 (cont.) 

Bobl futures are trading closer to their recent lows. The contract has breached support at 117.690 and 117.630, the Sep 2 and Aug 25 lows respectively. Clearance of these levels reinstates a bearish theme. Sights are on 117.450, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, key short-term resistance has been defined at 118.090, the Sep 18 high. A move above this level would signal a potential reversal.     

SCHATZ TECHS: (Z5) Bearish Theme Remains Intact    

• RES 4: 107.240 High Aug 4 
• RES 3: 107.225 High Aug 27 and the bull trigger 
• RES 2: 107.145/190 High Sep 11 / High Sep 5 and 8
• RES 1: 107.050 Low Aug 25 and Sep 2 and a recent breakout level 
• PRICE: 106.985 @ 06:16 BST Sep 23
• SUP 1: 106.955 Low Sep 22  
• SUP 2: 106.948 1.382 proj of the the Aug 27 - Sep 2 - 8 price swing  
• SUP 3: 106.928 1.500 proj of the the Aug 27 - Sep 2 - 8 price swing
• SUP 4: 106.900 Round number support

The trend structure in Schatz futures remains bearish and recent weakness confirms a resumption of the downtrend. The contract has breached support at 107.050, the Aug 25 and Sep 2 low plus a bear trigger. Price has also traded to a fresh short-term cycle low today. This maintains the downward price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Sights are on 106.948 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial resistance is at 107.050, Aug 25 and Sep 2 low.       

GILT TECHS: (Z5) Trading Below Its Recent Highs     

• RES 4: 92.30 High Aug 7
• RES 3: 92.06 High Aug 14      
• RES 2: 92.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 91.11/82 20-day EMA / High Sep 11
• PRICE: 90.81 @ Close Sep 22
• SUP 1: 90.65/60 Low Sep 2 / 22 
• SUP 2: 90.31/89.36 Low Sep 4 / 3
• SUP 3: 89.22 1.618 proj of the Aug 21 - 27 - 28 price swing 
• SUP 4: 89.00 Round number support   

Gilt futures gapped lower last Friday extending the pullback from its recent highs. Despite the sell-off, a bull cycle remains intact and a recent rally highlights a stronger corrective cycle. Note that the move higher has allowed an oversold trend condition to unwind. Price has breached initial firm resistance at 90.84, the Aug 28 and 29 high. A resumption of gains would  open 92.06, the Aug 14 high. Initial support lies at 90.65 (pierced), Sep 5 low.    

BTP TECHS: (Z5) Bull Trigger Remains Exposed       

• RES 4: 122.56 0.764 proj of the Apr 9 - May 8 - 14 price swing (cont)
• RES 3: 121.88 0.618 proj of the Apr 9 - May 8 - 14 price swing (cont) 
• RES 2: 121.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 120.74 High Aug 5 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 119.80 @ Close Sep 22
• SUP 1: 119.06/118.36 Low Sep 4 / 3         
• SUP 2: 118.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 117.70 2.236 proj of the Aug 5 - 12 - 14 price swing  
• SUP 4: 117.36 2.500 proj of the Aug 5 - 12 - 14 price swing 

The primary trend condition in BTP futures is unchanged, the set-up remains bullish. The strong rally that started Sep 3 reinforces this theme and signals the end of the recent corrective pullback between Aug 5 - Sep 3. Key resistance and the bull trigger is 120.74, the Aug 5 high. A break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend. Key support has been defined at 118.36, the Sep 3 low.

US‌‌ ‌‌10YR‌‌ ‌‌FUTURE‌‌ ‌‌TECHS:‌‌ (Z5) Corrective Pullback 

• RES 4: 114-15  1.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 114-10   High Apr 7 (cont.)
• RES 2: 114-00   Round number resistance 
• RES 1: 113-12/29 High Sep 18 / High Sep 11 and the bull trigger 
• PRICE:‌‌ 112-24+ @ 18:37 BST Sep 22
• SUP 1: 112-21+/112-15+ Intraday low / High Aug 5  and 14 
• SUP 2: 112-08+ 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 111-13+ Low Aug 18 and a key support  
• SUP 4: 110-25   Low Aug 1 

The pullback in Treasury futures from their recent highs appear corrective. Price has moved through the 20-day EMA, at 112-28+. The break signals scope for a deeper retracement and attention turns to the 50-day EMA, at 112-08+ and the next key support. Moving average studies remain in a bull mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. The bull trigger has been defined at 113-29, the Sep 11 high.                          

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (Z5) Bullish Outlook   

• RES 4: 5600.00 Round number resistance 
• RES 3: 5564.82 0.764 proj of the Aug 1 - 22 - Sep 2 price swing  
• RES 2: 5525.00 High Aug 22 and a bull trigger  
• RES 1: 5505.00 High Sep 19     
• PRICE: 5464.00 @ 06:32 BST Sep 22
• SUP 1: 5409.70/5366.00 20-day EMA / Low Sep 17
• SUP 2: 5302.00 Low Sep 2 and a key short-term support  
• SUP 3: 5262.18 76.4% retracement of the Aug 1 - 22 bull leg   
• SUP 4: 5181.00 Low Aug 1 and key support  

Eurostoxx 50 futures are trading closer to their recent highs. The contract recently traded through resistance around the 20-day EMA - a bullish development - and the subsequent rally reinforces a bullish theme. The move signals potential for a climb towards 5525.00, the Aug 22 high and a bull trigger. On the downside, key support has been defined at 5302.00, the Sep 2 low. Clearance of this level is required to reinstate a bearish theme.      

 E-MINI S&P: (Z5) Continues To Appreciate  

• RES 4: 6812.29 2.382 proj of the Aug 20 - 28 - Sep 2 price swing 
• RES 3: 6800.00 Round number resistance 
• RES 2: 6787.63 1.382 proj of the Aug 1 - 15 - 20 price swing   
• RES 1: 6756.75 High Sep 22  
• PRICE: 6751.75 @ 07:52 BST Sep 23
• SUP 1: 6616.34 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 6577.25 Low Sep 10 
• SUP 3: 6497.54 50-day EMA 
• SUP 4: 6417.25 Low Aug 12 

A bull cycle in S&P E-Minis remains intact and the contract traded to a fresh cycle high yesterday. Price has breached the 6700.00 handle and this signals scope for an extension towards 6787.63, a Fibonacci projection point. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend and positive market sentiment. Initial support to watch lies at 6616.34, the 20-day EMA.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (X5) Bear Threat Remains Present      

• RES 4: $79.16 - 2.618 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 3: $77.28 - 2.382 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 2: $76.39 - High Jun 23 and a bull trigger 
• RES 1: $69.53/71.93 - High Sep 2 / High Jul 30 and a key resistance 
• PRICE: $66.15 @ 07:10 BST Sep 23
• SUP 1: $64.50 - Low Jun 30 and a key short-term support
• SUP 2: $60.82 - Low May 30
• SUP 3: $58.37 - Low May 5
• SUP 4: $57.81 - Low Apr 9 and a key support   

Brent futures remain above the Sep 5 low. Recent short-term gains are for now, considered corrective and a bear cycle remains intact. Sights are on $64.50, the Jun 30 low, where a clear break would confirm a continuation of the bear leg. This would open $60.82, the May 30 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at $71.93, the Jul 30 high. Clearance of this level is required to cancel a bear theme.  

WTI TECHS: (X5) Still Looking For Weakness  

• RES 4: $76.89 - 2.764 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 3: $74.79- 2.500 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 2: $73.39 - High Jun 23 and a bull trigger 
• RES 1: $65.43/68.43 - High Sep2 / High Jul 30 and key resistance   
• PRICE: $61.98 @ 07:19 BST Sep 23
• SUP 1: $60.85 - Low Aug 13 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 2: $57.50 - Low May 30
• SUP 3: $54.89 - Low May 5
• SUP 4: $54.10 - Low Apr 9 and a key support

The trend condition in WTI futures is unchanged - a bear cycle remains intact and recent gains are considered corrective. The pullback from the Sep 2 high highlights a possible reversal and the end of a corrective phase between Aug 13 - Sep 2. Initial resistance to watch is $65.43, the Sep 2 high. Key short-term resistance has been defined at $68.43, the Jul 30 high. A stronger resumption of weakness would open $57.50, the May 30 low. 

GOLD TECHS: Fresh Cycle High     

• RES 4: $3909.4 - 2.000 proj of the May 15 - Jun 16 - 30 price swing
• RES 3: $3831.4 - 1.764 proj of the Dec 30 ’24 - Apr 3 - 7 price swing
• RES 2: $3800.0 - Round number resistance
• RES 1: $3791.1 - Intraday high             
• PRICE: $3786.7 @ 10:28 BST Sep 23
• SUP 1: $3683.8 - Low Sep 22  
• SUP 2: $3594.0 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: $3484.2 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: $3311.6 - Low Aug 20  

Gold is in a clear bull cycle and shallow short-term pullbacks remain corrective. A fresh all-time high once again, yesterday and today, confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend and an extension of the sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The next objective is the $3800.0 handle. Initial firm support lies at $3594.0, the 20-day EMA. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend.                

SILVER TECHS: Northbound

• RES 4: $44.000 - Round number resistance
• RES 3: $45.128 - 3.236 proj of the Jul 31 - Aug 14 - 20 price swing
• RES 2: $44.533 - 3.000 proj of the Jul 31 - Aug 14 - 20 price swing
• RES 1: $44.191 - Intraday high       
• PRICE: $44.190 @ 10:30 BST Sep 23
• SUP 1: $41.339 - 20-day EMA 
• SUP 2: $39.584- 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $36.965 - Low Aug 20  
• SUP 4: $36.216 - Low Jul 31 and a key support

Trend signals in Silver remain bullish. The metal traded higher Monday as the bull cycle extended. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, reinforcing current conditions. Sights are $44.533 next, a 3.000 projection of the Jul 31 - Aug 14 - 20 price swing. Clearance of this level would pave the way for a climb towards 45.128, the 3.236 projection. Initial firm support to watch lies at $41.339, the 20-day EMA.