MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Gilts Strengthen Bearish Theme

Price Signal Summary – Gilts Strengthen Bearish Theme

• A bullish trend condition in S&P E-Minis remains intact and last week’s appreciation reinforces current conditions. The contract has cleared an important resistance at 5837.25, the Mar 25 high and a bull trigger. A bullish theme in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains intact and price is trading at its recent highs. The contract is extending the recent breach of 5263.01, 76.4% of the Mar 3 - Apr 7 bear leg.              
• Recent weakness in GBPUSD appears corrective. The May 13 bounce highlights a possible reversal pattern - a bullish engulfing candle. The pattern remains valid and if correct, signals the end of the recent corrective cycle. USDJPY continues to trade below the May 12 high and the pair maintains a softer tone. The latest pullback underpins the view that gains since Apr 22 appear corrective. A stronger reversal lower would refocus attention on 142.36. The trend condition in AUDUSD is unchanged, it remains bullish. The May 13 rally signals the end of the recent corrective pullback and attention is on key resistance at 0.6515, the May 7 high.
• A corrective cycle in Gold remains in play and the metal traded lower last week. A key support at $3202.0, the May 1, low has been breached. The break of this level signals scope for a deeper retracement. A downtrend in WTI futures remains intact and recent gains are considered corrective. Key resistance to watch is $62.93, the 50-day EMA. It has recently been pierced, a clear break of it would highlight a stronger reversal.
• Bund futures have recovered from their recent low. The move higher undermines the recent bearish theme and suggests the move down between Apr 22 - May 15, has been a correction. Gilt futures traded sharply lower last Wednesday, extending the current bear cycle. The impulsive sell-off strengthens a bearish theme. The move down exposes 90.92, 76.4% of the Apr 9 - May 2 rally. A break of this level would strengthen the bearish condition. 

FOREIGN EXCHANGE    

EURUSD TECHS: Support Still Intact               

• RES 4: 1.1625 1.500 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - 27 price swing
• RES 3: 1.1608 High Nov 9 2021
• RES 2: 1.1440/1573 High Apr 23 / 21 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.1266/1381 High May 14 / High May 2 - 6  
• PRICE: 1.1184 @ 05:59 BST May 19
• SUP 1: 1.1096/65 50-day EMA and a pivot level / Low May 12 
• SUP 2: 1.1026 38.2% retracement of the Feb 3 - Apr 21 bull cycle 
• SUP 3: 1.0943 Low Apr 10    
• SUP 4: 1.0857 50.0% retracement of the Feb 3 - Apr 21 bull cycle

EURUSD is unchanged and continues to trade above last week’s low. Recent weakness appears corrective and key trend signals highlight an uptrend. Note that a key support at the 50-day EMA, at 1.1096, remains intact. A clean break of this average would undermine the uptrend. A key resistance to watch is 1.1381, the May 2 - 6 high. Clearance of this level would signal the end of the correction and highlight a bullish break. 

GBPUSD TECHS: Trend Outlook Remains Bullish 

• RES 4: 1.3550 High Feb 24 ‘22
• RES 3: 1.3510 1.236 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - 7 price swing
• RES 2: 1.3402/3444 High May 6 / High Apr 28 / 29 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.3360 High May 14   
• PRICE: 1.3305 @ 06:11 BST May 19
• SUP 1: 1.3140 Low May 12   
• SUP 2: 1.3110 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.3041 Low Apr 14  
• SUP 4: 1.2968 Low Apr 11 

Recent weakness in GBPUSD appears corrective. The May 13 bounce highlights a possible reversal pattern - a bullish engulfing candle. The pattern remains valid and if correct, signals the end of the recent corrective cycle and a resumption of the uptrend. Key support to watch is 1.3117, the 50-day EMA. A continuation higher would refocus attention on the key resistance and a bull trigger, at 1.3444, the Apr 28 / 29 high. 

EURGBP TECHS: Trading At Its Recent Lows  

• RES 4: 0.8768 High Nov 20 ‘23    
• RES 3: 0.8624/0.8738 High Apr 21/ High Apr 11 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 0.8541/8557 High May 2 / High Apr 28
• RES 1: 0.8459 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.8409 @ 06:27 BST May 19
• SUP 1: 0.8394 Low May 16   
• SUP 2: 0.8359 1.236 proj of the Apr 11 - 16 - 21 price swing
• SUP 3: 0.8316 Low Mar 28 and a key support
• SUP 4: 0.8277 1.618 proj of the Apr 11 - 16 - 21 price swing  

A bearish theme is EURGBP remains in play - for now. The cross has recently cleared 0.8459, the 50-day EMA, signalling scope for a continuation lower near-term. Friday’s fresh cycle low strengthens the bearish theme. The 0.8400 handle has been pierced, a continuation lower would open 0.8359, a Fibonacci projection. Key near-term resistance to watch is 0.8541, the May 2 high. A break of this hurdle is required to signal a potential reversal.     

USDJPY TECHS: Testing Support At The 20-Day EMA 

• RES 4: 150.49 High Apr 2   
• RES 3: 149.28 High Apr 3
• RES 2: 148.54/65 76.4% of Mar 28 - Apr 22 bear leg / High May 12
• RES 1: 146.29 50-day EMA 
• PRICE: 145.23 @ 19:39 BST May 16
• SUP 1: 144.81/143.45 Intraday low / Low May 8      
• SUP 2: 142.36 Low May 6 
• SUP 3: 141.97 Low Apr 29  
• SUP 4: 139.89 Low Apr 22 and a bear trigger

USDJPY continues to trade below the May 12 high and the pair maintains a softer tone. The latest pullback underpins the view that gains since Apr 22 appear corrective. A stronger reversal lower would refocus attention on 142.36, the May 6 low. First support to watch is 145.21, the 20-day EMA. It has been pierced, a clear break would strengthen a bearish theme. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 148.65, the May 12 high.  

EURJPY TECHS: Monitoring Support At The 50-Day EMA 

• RES 4: 166.69 High Oct 31 2024 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 166.10 High Nov 6         
• RES 2: 165.21/43 High May 13 / High Nov 8 2024 
• RES 1: 164.07 High May 15 
• PRICE: 162.50 @ 07:14 GMT May 19
• SUP 1: 162.23/15 50-day EMA / Intraday low      
• SUP 2: 161.60 Low May 6
• SUP 3: 160.99 Low Apr 22  
• SUP 4: 159.48 Low Apr 9  

EURJPY maintains a bearish tone following the pullback from its recent high. The move down is for now, considered corrective. However, the cross is testing a key support at 162.23, the 50-day EMA. A break of this level would undermine a bearish theme and signal scope for a deeper retracement. For bulls, a resumption of gains would refocus attention on key resistance and the bull trigger at 165.21, the May 13 high.  

AUDUSD TECHS: Trend Structure Remains Bullish 

• RES 4: 0.5682 High Nov 12 ‘24  
• RES 3: 0.6550 61.8% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Apr 9 bear leg
• RES 2: 0.6528 High Nov 29 ‘24
• RES 1: 0.6515 High May 7 
• PRICE: 0.6412 @ 07:59 BST May 19
• SUP 1: 0.6356 50-day EMA   
• SUP 2: 0.6275 Low Apr 14    
• SUP 3: 0.6181 Low Apr 11
• SUP 4: 0.6116 Low Apr 10  

The trend condition in AUDUSD is unchanged, it remains bullish. The May 13 rally signals the end of the recent corrective pullback and attention is on key resistance at 0.6515, the May 7 high. Note that moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting an uptrend. A resumption of the trend would open 0.6550, a Fibonacci retracement. Key support to monitor is 0.6356, the 50-day EMA. 

USDCAD TECHS: Corrective Cycle 

• RES 4: 1.4296 High Apr 7
• RES 3: 1.4111 High Apr 4 
• RES 2: 1.4024 50-day EMA 
• RES 1: 1.4016 High May 12 / 13
• PRICE: 1.3963 @ 08:03 BST May 19
• SUP 1: 1.3814/3751 Low May 8 / 6 and the bear trigger  
• SUP 2: 1.3744 76.4% retracement of Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bull run
• SUP 3: 1.3696 Low Oct 10 ‘24
• SUP 4: 1.3643 Low Oct 9 ‘24 

USDCAD maintains a firmer short-term tone for now. Despite the latest move higher, the trend condition remains bearish and recent strength appears corrective. A fresh cycle low on May 6 reinforces the bearish theme. A resumption of weakness would open 1.3744, a Fibonacci retracement. Note that moving average studies are in a bear mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Key resistance is seen at 1.4024, the 50-day EMA.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M5) Trading Above Lat Week’s Low                         

• RES 4: 132.56 High Feb 28 and a key resistance               
• RES 3: 131.72/132.03 High May 7 / High Apr 7 and the bull trigger     
• RES 2: 130.86 High May 9 Round number resistance 
• RES 1: 130.65 High May 16                     
• PRICE: 130.18 @ 05:37 BST May 19
• SUP 1: 129.13 Low May 15 and key short-term support             
• SUP 2: 129.02 Low Apr 10           
• SUP 3: 128.60 Low Apr 9 and a key support  
• SUP 4: 128.19 Low Mar 27 

Bund futures have recovered from their recent low. The move higher undermines the recent bearish theme and suggests the move down between Apr 22 - May 15, has been a correction. A continuation higher would strengthen the reversal and open 130.86 next, the May 9 high. Further out, scope would be seen for an extension towards 132.03, the Apr 7 high. Key short-term support has been defined at 129.13, the May 15 low.                                            

BOBL TECHS: (M5) Recovers From Recent Lows                  

• RES 4: 119.960 High Apr 7 and the bull trigger          
• RES 3: 119.780 High Apr 22          
• RES 2: 119.600 High May 7
• RES 1: 118.858/118.950 20-day EMA / High May 12                                     
• PRICE: 118.620 @ 05:52 BST May 19 
• SUP 1: 118.060 Low May 14 and 15 and the bear trigger       
• SUP 2: 117.680 Low Apr 9 and a key support 
• SUP 3: 117.600 Low Mar 28 
• SUP 4: 117.410 Low Mar 27      

A bearish corrective phase in Bobl futures remains intact, however, the recovery from last week’s low does signal a possible reversal and the end of the corrective cycle. A continuation higher would open 118.950, the May 12 high. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bullish theme. On the downside, a resumption of weakness would expose 117.680, the Apr 9 low and a key support. The bear trigger is 118.060, the May 14 / 15 low.                      

SCHATZ TECHS: (M5) Monitoring Resistance                                     

• RES 4: 107.775 High Apr 7 and the bull trigger    
• RES 3: 107.600 High Apr 30  
• RES 2: 107.550 High May 7  
• RES 1: 107.323/405 20-day EMA / High May 9                  
• PRICE: 107.230 @ 06:02 BST May 19
• SUP 1: 107.070 Low May 13 and the bear trigger  
• SUP 2: 106.965 Low Apr 9 and a key support     
• SUP 3: 106.928 61.8% retracement of the Mar 6 - Apr 7 bull cycle        
• SUP 4: 106.830 Low Mar 27      

A bearish theme in Schatz futures remains intact for now. A resumption of the bear leg would signal scope for an extension towards the next key support at 106.965, the Apr 9 low. The bear trigger has been defined at 107.070, the May 13 low. On the upside, resistance to watch is 107.323, the May 16 high. Clearance of this hurdle would signal a potential reversal. This would open 107.550, the May 7 high.                                                           

GILT TECHS: (M5) Resistance Remains Intact                    

• RES 4: 93.59 High May 8  
• RES 3: 93.00 Round number resistance      
• RES 2: 92.28 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 92.03 High May 16                            
• PRICE: 91.73 @ Close May 16
• SUP 1: 90.96 Low May 15 and the bear trigger                                          
• SUP 2: 90.92 76.4% retracement of the Apr 9 - May 2 rally
• SUP 3: 90.47 Low Apr 11    
• SUP 4: 89.99 Low Apr 9 and a key support    

Gilt futures traded sharply lower last Wednesday, extending the current bear cycle. The impulsive sell-off strengthens a bearish theme. The move down exposes 90.92, 76.4% of the Apr 9 - May 2 rally. A break of this level would strengthen the bearish condition and open 90.47, the Apr 11 low. Note that the strong rally from last Thursday’s low does ease bearish pressure. Resistance to watch is at 92.28, the 20-day EMA. A break would be bullish.                                

BTP TECHS: (M5) Support At The 50-Day EMA Remains Intact                                    

• RES 4: 121.93 76.4% of the Dec 5 ‘24 - Mar 14 bear leg (cont)       
• RES 3: 121.43 1.618 proj of the Mar 14 - Apr 4 - 9 price swing    
• RES 2: 121.00 High Feb 7 (cont) and a key resistance  
• RES 1: 120.72 High May 8 and the bull trigger               
• PRICE: 119.98 @ Close May 16 
• SUP 1: 119.14/00 50-day EMA / Low May 14       
• SUP 2: 118.76/09 Low Apr 15 / 14       
• SUP 3: 117.28 Low Apr 10 
• SUP 4: 116.06 Low Apr 9    

A bull cycle in BTP futures remains intact. However, near-term, a corrective phase does signal potential for a pullback. Key support at 119.14, the 50-day EMA, remains intact. A clear break of it would signal scope for a deeper retracement, and open 118.76 initially, the Apr 15 low. On the upside, a continuation of last Thursday’s bounce would refocus attention on key resistance at 120.72, May 8 high. A break of this hurdle resumes the uptrend.                 

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M5) Bull Cycle Remains In Play               

• RES 4: 5565.23 1.618 proj of the Apr 7 - 9 - 10 price swing   
• RES 3: 5516.00 High Mar 3 and the key bull trigger
• RES 2: 5471.00 High Mar 19 / 20
• RES 1: 5443.00 High May 16
• PRICE: 5416.00 @ 06:20 BST May 19 
• SUP 1: 5233.55/5181.06 20- and 50-day EMA values                      
• SUP 2: 5055.00 Low Apr 30
• SUP 3: 4959.00/4812.00 Low Apr 23 / 16 and a key support        
• SUP 4: 4664.00 Low Apr 10   

A bullish theme in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains intact and price is trading at its recent highs. The contract is extending the recent breach of 5263.01, 76.4% of the Mar 3 - Apr 7 bear leg. The continuation higher signals scope for a climb towards 5516.00, the Mar 3 high and the key bull trigger. Initial firm support to watch lies at 5181.06, the 50-day EMA. Clearance of this level would signal a possible reversal.               

E-MINI S&P: (M5) Trend Needle Points North                   

• RES 4: 6080.75 High Feb 26    
• RES 3: 6057.00 High Mar 3  
• RES 2: 6000.00 Round number resistance      
• RES 1: 5977.50 High MAy 16                                    
• PRICE: 5916.75 @ 07:25 BST May 19 
• SUP 1: 5681.27 50-day EMA                        
• SUP 2: 5455.50 Low Apr 30 
• SUP 3: 5355.25 Low Apr 24
• SUP 4: 5127.25 Low Apr 21 and a key support 

A bullish trend condition in S&P E-Minis remains intact and last week’s appreciation reinforces current conditions. The contract has cleared an important resistance at 5837.25, the Mar 25 high and a bull trigger. This strengthens the bullish theme, paving the way for a continuation near-term. Sights are on the 6000.00 handle next. Initial firm support to watch lies at 5681.27, the 50-day EMA.      

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (N5) Resistance Intact  

• RES 4: $75.81 - High Feb 20 
• RES 3: $74.63 - High Apr 2 and a bull trigger
• RES 2: $68.28 - 61.8% retracement of the Apr 2 - 9 sell-off 
• RES 1: $66.45/81 - 50-day EMA / High May 13           
• PRICE: $65.04 @ 07:10 BST May 19
• SUP 1: $58.00 - Low April 9 and the bear trigger     
• SUP 2: $56.29 - 2.236 proj of the Feb 20 - Mar 5 - Apr 2 price swing
• SUP 3: $55.10 - 2.382 proj of the Feb 20 - Mar 5 - Apr 2 price swing
• SUP 4: $54.00 - Round number support

The trend condition in Brent futures is unchanged, it remains bearish and recent gains appear corrective. Attention is on key resistance at $66.45, the 50-day EMA. It has been pierced, but remains intact for now. A clear break of this average would highlight a stronger bull cycle. On the downside, a reversal lower would refocus attention key support at $58.00, the Apr 9 low. A breach of this support would resume the downtrend.       

WTI TECHS: (N5) Trading Below Resistance     

• RES 4: $72.12 - High Feb 20  
• RES 3: $71.10 - High Apr 2 and key resistance
• RES 2: $65.82 - High Apr 4 2 and key resistance
• RES 1: $62.93/63.44 - 50-day EMA / High May 13  
• PRICE: $61.56 @ 07:22 BST May 19 
• SUP 1: $54.33 - Low April 9 and the bear trigger  
• SUP 2: $53.30 - 2.236 proj of the Feb 20 - Mar 5 - Apr 2 price swing
• SUP 3: $52.14 - 2.382 proj of the Jan 15 - Feb 4 - 11 price swing
• SUP 4: $50.00 - Psychological round number  

A downtrend in WTI futures remains intact and recent gains are considered corrective. Key resistance to watch is $62.93, the 50-day EMA. It has recently been pierced, a clear break of it would highlight a stronger reversal. This would open $65.82, the Apr 4 high. For bears a reversal lower would refocus attention on $54.33, the Apr 9 low and bear trigger. Clearance of this support would confirm a resumption of the downtrend. 

GOLD TECHS: Corrective Bear Cycle Still In Play                              

• RES 4: $3578.0 - 2.000 proj of the Dec 19 - Feb 24 - Feb 28 swing 
• RES 3: $3547.9 - 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - Apr 7 price swing
• RES 2: $3435.6/3500.1 - High May 7 / High Apr 22 and bull trigger
• RES 1: $3259.5/3347.5 - 20-day EMA / High May 9        
• PRICE: $3230.5 @ 07:25 BST May 19
• SUP 1: $3121.0 - Low May 15 
• SUP 2: $3085.0 - 61.8% retracement of the Apr 7 - Apr 22 upleg 
• SUP 3: $3100.0 - Round number support 
• SUP 4: $3023.1 - 1.382 proj of the Apr 22 - May 1 - May 6 price swing  

A corrective cycle in Gold remains in play and the metal traded lower last week. A key support at $3202.0, the May 1, low has been breached. The break of this level signals scope for a deeper retracement, towards $3085.0, 76.4% of the Apr 7 - Apr 22 upleg. Note that the 50-day EMA at $3169.4, has also been breached, strengthening a bearish threat. Initial resistance is $3259.5, the 20-day EMA.    

SILVER TECHS: Support Remains Intact For Now             

• RES 4: $36.000 - Round number resistance 
• RES 3: $34.903 - High Oct 23 ‘24 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: $34.590 - High Mar 28  
• RES 1: $33.686 - High Apr 25                                        
• PRICE: $32.495 @ 08:08 BST May 19
• SUP 1: $31.668/651 -  Low May 1 / 15 
• SUP 2: $30.915/28.351 - Low Apr 11 / 7 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $27.686 - Low Sep 6 ‘24   
• SUP 4: $27.180 - Low Aug 14 ‘24   

Silver is trading closer to its recent lows. However, a bullish theme remains intact and the latest pullback that started Apr 25, is likely a correction. Key short-term support has been defined at $31.668, the May 1 low (pierced). A break of this level would signal scope for a deeper retracement and open $30.915, the Apr 11 low. For bulls, resistance to watch is $33.686, the Apr 25 high. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend.