MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Gilts Still Bearish Despite Vol

Price Signal Summary – Gilts Still Bearish Through S/T Volatility

• S&P E-Minis traded lower yesterday but for now, the contract remains closer to its recent highs. The trend condition is bearish and the latest recovery appears corrective. MA studies are in a bear-mode set-up, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Note that the 20-day EMA has been breached. The medium-term trend direction in Eurostoxx 50 futures is up and recent short-term weakness - for now - appears corrective. Support to watch is the 50-day EMA, at 5295.60. It has recently been pierced.
• The trend in GBPUSD is bullish and recent weakness appears corrective. MA studies are in a bull-mode position and this highlights a dominant uptrend. The pair has found support at the 20-day EMA, at 1.2871. USDJPY is holding on to its recent gains. The primary trend direction is down and the latest recovery is considered corrective. Resistance to watch is 150.94, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this EMA would signal scope for a stronger rally. USDCAD traded through support at 1.4242 yesterday, the Mar 6 low, before recovering. Clearance of this level would undermine the bull theme and instead highlight potential for a test of 1.4151, the Feb 14 low and a bear trigger.
• The trend condition in Gold is unchanged, it remains bullish and the yellow metal is holding on to the bulk of its recent gains. Last week’s fresh trend high reinforces the bull theme and sights are on $3079.2 next, a Fibonacci projection. Despite recent gains, a bearish trend condition in WTI futures remains intact, and gains are considered corrective. However, a key resistance at $69.14, the 50-day EMA, has been pierced.
• Bund futures are in consolidation mode and holding on to the bulk of their recent gains. Resistance remains intact and - for now - the latest move higher is considered corrective. Gilt futures traded in a volatile manner yesterday. The short-term trend outlook remains bearish and recent weakness reinforces this theme. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 93.01, the Mar 20 high.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE    

EURUSD TECHS: Corrective Cycle Remains In Play       

• RES 4: 1.1083 High Oct 2 2024  
• RES 3: 1.1040 High Oct 4 2024
• RES 2: 1.0961 76.4% retracement of the Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bear leg
• RES 1: 1.0861/0955 High Mar 21 / 18 and the bull trigger   
• PRICE: 1.0775 @ 06:08 GMT Mar 27
• SUP 1: 1.0733 20-day EMA   
• SUP 2: 1.0644 38.2% retracement of the Feb 3 - Mar 18 bull run      
• SUP 3: 1.0631 50-day EMA and a short-term pivot level     
• SUP 4: 1.0548 50.0% retracement of the Feb 3 - Mar 18 bull run

EURUSD is trading at this week’s lows as the pair extends the pullback from its recent high. The move down is considered corrective and the trend condition is unchanged - it remains bullish. However, the pair has pierced the 20-day EMA, at 1.0762. A continuation lower would signal scope for a deeper correction and expose the 50-day EMA at 1.0635. For bulls, a reversal higher would refocus attention on the bull trigger at 1.0955, the Mar 18 high.  

GBPUSD TECHS: Finds Support At The 20-Day EMA     

• RES 4: 1.3175 High Oct 4 2024  
• RES 3: 1.3119 76.4% retracement of the Sep 26 ‘24 - Jan 13 bear leg
• RES 2: 1.3048 High Nov 6 ‘24
• RES 1: 1.3015 High Mar 20 and the bull trigger  
• PRICE: 1.2926 @ 06:25 GMT Mar 27 
• SUP 1: 1.2871 20-day EMA and intraday low      
• SUP 2: 1.2737 50-day EMA and a short-term pivot support
• SUP 3: 1.2679 Low Mar 4   
• SUP 4: 1.2559 Low Feb 28      

The trend in GBPUSD is bullish and recent weakness appears corrective. MA studies are in a bull-mode position and this highlights a dominant uptrend. The pair has found support at the 20-day EMA, at 1.2871. A stronger recovery and a breach of 1.3015, the Mar 20 high and bull trigger, would pave the way for a climb towards 1.3048, the Nov 6 2024 high. Clearance of the 20-day EMA is required to signal scope for a deeper retracement.                  

EURGBP TECHS: Bearish Corrective Cycle Remains Intact    

• RES 4: 0.8494 High Aug 26 ‘24        
• RES 3: 0.8474 High Jan 20 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 0.8428/8450 High Mar 18 / 11 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 0.8395 High Mar 24      
• PRICE: 0.8339 @ 06:37 GMT Mar 27 
• SUP 1: 0.8333 Low Mar 26
• SUP 2: 0.8321 61.8% retracement of the Mar 3 - 11 bull leg 
• SUP 3: 0.8391 76.4% retracement of the Mar 3 - 11 bull leg 
• SUP 4: 0.8241 Low Mar 3 and a key support 

EURGBP was unable to hold on to yesterday’s gains. The near-term trend structure remains bearish. The move down that started Mar 11 is considered corrective and has allowed a recent overbought condition to unwind. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend - for now. Resistance to watch is 0.8395, the Mar 24 high. Key near-term support lies at 0.8321, a Fibonacci retracement.    

USDJPY TECHS: Resistance Remains Intact For Now        

• RES 4: 154.80 High Dec 12 ‘24 and a key resistance     
• RES 3: 152.70 50.0% retracement of the Jan 10 - Mar 11 bear leg  
• RES 2: 151.30 High Mar 3  
• RES 1: 150.94 50-day EMA and a key short-term resistance  
• PRICE: 150.41 @ 06:59 GMT Mar 27 
• SUP 1: 149.58 20-day EMA   
• SUP 2: 148.18 Low Mar 20 
• SUP 3: 147.80 1.0% 10-dma envelope 
• SUP 4: 146.54 Low Mar 11 nad the bear trigger 

USDJPY is holding on to its recent gains. The primary trend direction is down and the latest recovery is considered corrective. Resistance to watch is 150.94, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this EMA would signal scope for a stronger rally. For bears, a reversal lower would refocus sights on key support and the bear trigger at 146.54, the Mar 11 low. First key support to watch is 148.18, the Mar 20 low.     

EURJPY TECHS: Corrective Cycle              

• RES 4: 165.43 High Nov 8        
• RES 3: 164.90 High Dec 30 ‘24 and a key medium-term resistance   
• RES 2: 164.55 High Jan 7
• RES 1: 164.19 High Mar 18 and the bull trigger 
• PRICE: 161.91 @ 07:08 GMT Mar 27 
• SUP 1: 160.74 Low Mar 20
• SUP 2: 160.49 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 158.90 Low Mar 10  
• SUP 4: 158.00 Round number support 

The trend condition in EURJPY remains bullish and a recent sell-off appears corrective. This has allowed an overbought condition to unwind. Short-term pivot support to watch is 160.49, the 50-day EMA. A break of this level would signal potential for a deeper retracement. Sights are on resistance at 164.08, the Jan 24 high. It has been pierced, a clear break of this hurdle would strengthen a bullish condition and open 164.90, the Dec 30 ‘24 high.    

AUDUSD TECHS: Trading Above Support            

• RES 4: 0.6429 High Dec 12 ‘24
• RES 3: 0.6414 38.2% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Feb 3 bear leg              
• RES 2: 0.6409 High Feb 21 and a bull trigger 
• RES 1: 0.6391 High Mar 17 / 18 
• PRICE: 0.6309@ 07:55 GMT Mar 27
• SUP 1: 0.6258 Low Mar 21
• SUP 2: 0.6187 Low Feb 4
• SUP 3: 0.6171/6088 Low Feb 4 / 3 and a key support
• SUP 4: 0.6045 1.500 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing

A short-term bull theme in AUDUSD is intact and the latest move down appears corrective. Key short-term support to watch is 0.6187, the Mar 4 low. Clearance of this level would reinstate a bear threat. First support is at 0.6258, the Mar 21 low. A stronger recovery would refocus attention on 0.6409, the Feb 21 high. Clearance of this hurdle would strengthen a bull cycle and resume the uptrend that started Feb 3.      

USDCAD TECHS: Pierced Support          

• RES 4: 1.4700 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 1.4641 76.4% retracement of the Feb 3 - 14 bear leg
• RES 2: 1.4452/4543 High Mar 13 / 4 and a bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.4402 High Mar 20 
• PRICE: 1.4293 @ 08:01 GMT Mar 27
• SUP 1: 1.4235 Low Mar 26 and a key near-term support   
• SUP 2: 1.4151/4107 Low Feb 14 / 50.0% of Sep 25 - Feb 3 bull run
• SUP 3: 1.4011 Low Dec 5 ‘24
• SUP 4: 1.3944 61.8% retracement of the Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bull cycle

USDCAD traded through support at 1.4242 yesterday, the Mar 6 low, before recovering. Clearance of this level would undermine the bull theme and instead highlight potential for a test of 1.4151, the Feb 14 low and a bear trigger. Moving average studies continue to highlight a dominant uptrend. A reversal higher would refocus attention on the bull trigger at 1.4543, the Mar 4 high. First resistance is 1.4402, the Mar 20 high.      

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M5) Monitoring Resistance                

• RES 4: 130.40 Low Feb 19               
• RES 3: 129.96 High Mar 5     
• RES 2: 129.41 Low Jan 14 and a key short-term resistance  
• RES 1: 128.66 20-day EMA                   
• PRICE: 128.43 @ 05:39 GMT Mar 27
• SUP 1: 127.74/126.53 Low Mar 25 / 11 and the bear trigger       
• SUP 2: 126.28 2.618 proj of the Feb 5 - 19 - 28 price swing            
• SUP 3: 126.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 123.36 3.00 proj of the Feb 5 - 19 - 28 price swing 

Bund futures are in consolidation mode and holding on to the bulk of their recent gains. Resistance remains intact and - for now - the latest move higher is considered corrective. The climb has allowed an oversold trend condition to unwind. Initial firm resistance to watch is seen at 129.41, the Jan 14 low. First support to watch lies at 127.74, the Mar 25 low. A break of this level would be seen as an early reversal signal. The bear trigger is 126.53, the Mar 11 low.                                  

BOBL TECHS: (M5) Corrective Cycle Extends        

• RES 4: 118.090 High Mar 5       
• RES 3: 117.974 61.8% retracement of the Feb 28 - Mar 6 sell-off         
• RES 2: 117.850 Low Feb 20    
• RES 1: 117.645 50.0% retracement of the Feb 28 - Mar 6 sell-off                                   
• PRICE: 117.550 @ 06:01 GMT Mar 27 
• SUP 1: 117.080 Low Mar 24       
• SUP 2: 116.800 Low Mar 17 
• SUP 3: 116.470/250 Low Mar 12 / 6 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 116.030 4.00 proj of the minor Feb 28 - Mar 3 - 4 price swing    

Bobl futures are trading higher this week and remain in a short-term bull cycle - a correction. The recent trend condition was recently oversold and the move higher has allowed this set-up to unwind. The primary trend direction is down. Former support at 117.850, the Feb 20 low, was cleared on March 5, and the recent sell-off signals scope for an extension towards 116.000. Firm resistance to watch is seen at 117.850, the Feb 20 low.                

SCHATZ TECHS: (M5) Unwinding An Oversold Condition                       

• RES 4: 107.120 High Mar 4 and key resistance    
• RES 3: 107.000 Round number resistance     
• RES 2: 106.951 76.4% retracement of the Mar 4 - 6 bear leg  
• RES 1: 106.905 High Mar 5                
• PRICE: 106.875 @ 06:13 GMT Mar 27    
• SUP 1: 106.630 Low Mar 18   
• SUP 2: 106.540 Low Mar 12   
• SUP 3: 106.500 Low Mar 7   
• SUP 4: 106.405 Low Mar 6 and the bear trigger     

Schatz futures are trading higher as the contract extends the recovery that started Mar 6. Gains are considered corrective and the trend condition remains bearish. The move higher has allowed an oversold trend reading to unwind. The next resistance to watch is 106.847, a Fibonacci retracement. A reversal lower would refocus attention on the bear trigger at 106.405, the Mar 6 low. Initial support to watch lies at 106.715, the Mar 25 low.                                                  

GILT TECHS: (M5) Sights Are On The Bear Trigger         

• RES 4: 94.00 Round number resistance    
• RES 3: 93.79 High Mar 4 and a bull trigger         
• RES 2: 93.06 Low Mar 4 and a gap high on the daily chart  
• RES 1: 91.94/93.01 20-day EMA / High Mar 20 and a S/T bull trigger                       
• PRICE: 91.33 @ Close Mar 26
• SUP 1: 90.75 Low Mar 26                                      
• SUP 2: 90.71 Low Mar 6 and a bear trigger  
• SUP 3: 90.49 1.618 proj of the Feb 6 - 20 - Mar 4 price swing  
• SUP 4: 90.19 1.764 proj of the Feb 6 - 20 - Mar 4 price swing

Gilt futures traded in a volatile manner yesterday. The short-term trend outlook remains bearish and recent weakness reinforces this theme. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 93.01, the Mar 20 high. A break of this level is required to highlight a bullish condition. For now, attention is on support at 90.71, the Mar 6 low and bear trigger. A break of this level would resume the downtrend.                          

BTP TECHS: (M5) Corrective Phase Still In Play                              

• RES 4: 120.39 High Feb 28      
• RES 3: 119.31 Low Mar 4 and a gap high on the daily chart   
• RES 2: 118.56 High Mar 5   
• RES 1: 117.43 20-day EMA        
• PRICE: 117.18 @ Close Mar 26 
• SUP 1: 116.54/115.75 Low Mar 18 / 14 and the bear trigger  
• SUP 2: 115.52 2.618 proj of the Feb 7 - 19 - 28 price swing  
• SUP 3: 115.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 114.81 3.000 proj of the Feb 7 - 19 - 28 price swing   

Recent gains in BTP futures appear corrective. Note that the trend has recently been in oversold territory and the latest bounce is allowing the condition to unwind. Resistance to watch 117.43, the 20-day EMA, ahead of 118.56, the Mar 5 high. A resumption of weakness and a breach of 115.75, the Mar 14 low, would confirm a continuation of the downtrend and open 115.52, a Fibonacci projection.             

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M5) Monitoring Support At The 50-Day EMA   

• RES 4: 5600.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 5562.87 0.764 proj of the Feb 3 - Mar 3 - 11 price swing  
• RES 2: 5516.00 High Mar 3 and the bull trigger   
• RES 1: 5471.00 High Mar 19 / 20             
• PRICE: 5320.00 @ 06:25 GMT Mar 27 
• SUP 1: 5295.60/5229.00 50-day EMA / Low Mar 11 and a bear trigger                
• SUP 2: 5202.00 Low Feb 2 
• SUP 3: 5160.00 Low Feb 4       
• SUP 4: 5079.00 Low Feb 3 and a key support      

The medium-term trend direction in Eurostoxx 50 futures is up and recent short-term weakness - for now - appears corrective. Support to watch is the 50-day EMA, at 5295.60. It has recently been pierced. A clear break of it would highlight a stronger short-term bear threat and suggest scope for a retracement towards 5160.00, the Feb 4 low. The bull trigger is 5516.00, the Mar 3 high. Clearance of this level would resume the uptrend.       

E-MINI S&P: (M5) Retracement Mode       

• RES 4: 5970.87 61.8% retracement of the Feb 19 - Mar 13 bear leg  
• RES 3: 5924.59 50-day EMA  
• RES 2: 5864.25 Low Jan 13 and a recent breakout level
• RES 1: 5837.25 High Mar 25                    
• PRICE: 5762.25 @ 07:23 GMT Mar 27  
• SUP 1: 5650.75/5559.75 Low Mar 18 / 13 and the bear trigger                  
• SUP 2: 5483.50 2.00 proj of the Dec 6 ‘24 - Jan 13 - Feb 19 swing 
• SUP 3: 5396.00 2.236 proj of the Dec 6 ‘24 - Jan 13 - Feb 19 swing
• SUP 4: 5341.87 2.382 proj of the Dec 6 ‘24 - Jan 13 - Feb 19 swing          

S&P E-Minis traded lower yesterday but for now, the contract remains closer to its recent highs. The trend condition is bearish and the latest recovery appears corrective. MA studies are in a bear-mode set-up, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Note that the 20-day EMA has been breached. A continuation  higher near-term - towards 5864.25, the Jan 13 low. A reversal lower would refocus attention on 5559.75, the Mar 13 low and bear trigger.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (K5) Has Breached The 50-Day EMA 

• RES 4: $79.98 -  High Jan 15 and a reversal trigger  
• RES 3: $76.78 - High Feb 11 and a bull trigger 
• RES 2: $74.76 - High Feb 25
• RES 1: $74.17 - High Mar 26           
• PRICE: $73.57 @ 07:11 GMT Mar 27   
• SUP 1: $69.90/68.33 - Low Mar 19 / 5 and the bear trigger  
• SUP 2: $67.87 - Low Sep 10 ‘24 and a key medium-term support
• SUP 3: $66.36 1.618 proj of the Jan 15 - Feb 4 - 11 price swing
• SUP 4: $63.90 2.000 proj of the Jan 15 - Feb 4 - 11 price swing

Brent futures have traded higher so far this week and the contract is holding on to its recent highs. For now, gains are considered corrective. However, price has breached the 50-day EMA, at $72.88. The clear break of this average signals scope for a stronger recovery and opens $74.76 next, the Feb 25 high. MA studies remain in a bear-mode position highlighting a dominant downtrend. The bear trigger lies at $68.33, the Mar 5 low.   

WTI TECHS: (K5) Corrective Cycle Extends                       

• RES 4: $76.57 - High Jan 15 and the bull trigger   
• RES 3: $72.91 - High Feb 11 and key resistance 
• RES 2: $70.98 - High Feb 25  
• RES 1: $70.22 - High Mar 26  
• PRICE: $69.40 @ 07:17 GMT Mar 27
• SUP 1: $66.09/64.85 - Low Mar 19 / 5 and the bear trigger   
• SUP 2: $63.73 - Low Sep 10 ‘24 and a key medium-term support
• SUP 3: $60.00 - Psychological round number
• SUP 4: $59.40 - 2.00 proj of the Jan 15 - Feb 4 - 11 price swing   

Despite recent gains, a bearish trend condition in WTI futures remains intact, and gains are considered corrective. However, a key resistance at $69.14, the 50-day EMA, has been pierced. The breach of this hurdle strengthens a bullish theme and opens $70.98, the Feb 25 high. For bears, a reversal lower would expose the bear trigger at $64.85, the Mar 5 low. Clearance of this level would resume the downtrend and open $63.73, the Oct 10 ‘24 low.          

GOLD TECHS: Trend Needle Points North                    

• RES 4: $3106.8 - 2.764 proj of the Nov 14 - Dec 12 - 19 price swing    
• RES 3: $3100.0 - Round number resistance 
• RES 2: $3079.2 - 2.618 proj of the Nov 14 - Dec 12 - 19 price swing
• RES 1: $3057.5 - High Mar 20 and the bull trigger  
• PRICE: $3031.4 @ 07:24 GMT Mar 27 
• SUP 1: $2999.5 - Low Mar 18 
• SUP 2: $2974.8/2894.8 - 20-day EMA / 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $2832.7 - Low Feb 28 and key support
• SUP 4: $2758.3 - Low Jan 30

The trend condition in Gold is unchanged, it remains bullish and the yellow metal is holding on to the bulk of its recent gains. Last week’s fresh trend high reinforces the bull theme and sights are on $3079.2 next, a Fibonacci projection. Note that moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend and positive market sentiment. Support is at $2974.8, the 20-day EMA.                     

SILVER TECHS: Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat       

• RES 4: $35.736 - 1.236 proj of the Feb 14 - Apr 12 - May 2 ‘24 swing 
• RES 3: $34.903 - High Oct 23 ‘24 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: $34.548 - High Oct 29 ‘24  
• RES 1: $34.233 - High Mar 18                                  
• PRICE: $33.709 @ 08:07 GMT Mar 27   
• SUP 1: $32.665 - Low Mar 21           
• SUP 2: $32.334/30.815 - 50-day EMA / Low Feb 28 and key support
• SUP 3: $29.704 - Low Jan 27 
• SUP 4: $28.748 - Low Dec 19 and a bear trigger 

Recent short-term weakness in Silver is considered corrective and a bull cycle remains in play. The metal has recently breached a key resistance at $33.397, the Feb 14 high, confirming a resumption of the bull cycle that started Dec 19 ‘24. This signals scope for a climb towards $34.903, the Oct 23 ‘24 high and a medium-term bull trigger. Key trend support has been defined at $30.815, the Feb 28 low.