MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Gilts Hold Gains

Price Signal Summary – Gilts Hold Gains in Week Before BoE

• A corrective bull cycle in S&P E-Minis that started on Apr 7, remains in play. The contract has breached a number of important short-term resistance points. Price has cleared the 20-day EMA and pierced 5528.75, the Apr 10 high. Eurostoxx 50 futures maintain a positive tone and are holding on to their recent gains. The contract has cleared the 20-day EMA and pierced the 50-day EMA, at 5102.56. A clear break of this average would strengthen the current bull cycle.
• The trend condition in GBPUSD remains bullish and Monday’s fresh cycle high reinforces current conditions. The move higher highlights a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The bounce in USDJPY that started Apr 22 is considered corrective. Resistance to watch is 144.06, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of this level would signal scope for a stronger recovery. The trend set-up in USDCAD is unchanged and remains bearish. A fresh cycle low on Apr 21 reinforces the bear cycle and signals scope for a continuation near-term. 
• Gold is unchanged and the yellow metal continues to trade below its recent highs. The trend needle points north and the latest move down appears corrective. The retracement has allowed an overbought condition to unwind. A medium-term bearish theme in WTI futures remains intact and the latest move down reinforces this theme, signalling the end of the correction between Apr 9 - 23. 
• Bund futures continue to trade below their recent highs. Despite the latest move down, a bull cycle remains in play and the sell-off between Apr 7 - 9 is considered corrective. Attention is on resistance at 132.03, the Apr 7 high and a bull trigger. Gilt futures are holding on to their latest gains. The recent rally marks an extension of the recovery that started Apr 9. 92.63, the Apr 8 high, has been breached, and 93.44, the 76.4% retracement of the Apr 7-9 sell-off, has been pierced.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE    

EURUSD TECHS: Corrective Cycle              

• RES 4: 1.1696 1.618 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - 27 price swing 
• RES 3: 1.1625 1.500 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - 27 price swing
• RES 2: 1.1608 High Nov 9 2021
• RES 1: 1.1440/1573 High Apr 23 / 21 and the bull trigger  
• PRICE: 1.1373 @ 06:01 BST Apr 30
• SUP 1: 1.1308 Low Apr 23
• SUP 2: 1.1251 20-day EMA and a key support    
• SUP 3: 1.1144/1002 High Apr 3 / 50-day EMA and a pivot level     
• SUP 4: 1.0805 Low Apr 3  

The recent pullback in EURUSD is considered corrective and the trend structure is unchanged, it remains bullish. MA studies are in a bull-mode position signalling a dominant uptrend, and the latest move down is allowing an overbought condition to unwind. A resumption of gains would open 1.1608 next, the Nov 9 2021 high. Key support is at the 20-day EMA, at 1.1251. A break of this average would signal scope for a deeper corrective pullback. 

GBPUSD TECHS: Bullish Trend Structure  

• RES 4: 1.3605 1.236 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - 7 price swing 
• RES 3: 1.3550 High Feb 24 ‘22 
• RES 2: 1.3510 1.236 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - 7 price swing 
• RES 1: 1.3444 High Apr 28 / 29 
• PRICE: 1.3391 @ 06:10 BST Apr 30
• SUP 1: 1.3280 Low Apr 28 
• SUP 2: 1.3202 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.3041/3002 Low Apr 14 / 50-day EMA 
• SUP 4: 1.2807 Low Apr 10 

The trend condition in GBPUSD remains bullish and Monday’s fresh cycle high reinforces current conditions. The move higher highlights a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position too, signalling a dominant uptrend. Sights are on 1.3510, a Fibonacci projection. Support to watch lies at 1.3202, the 20-day EMA.    

EURGBP TECHS: Bear Cycle Extends       

• RES 4: 0.8781 2.236 proj of the Mar 3 - 11 - 28 price swing     
• RES 3: 0.8768 High Nov 20 ‘23
• RES 2: 0.8624/0.8738 High Apr 21/ High Apr 11 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 0.8557 High Apr 28 
• PRICE: 0.8496 @ 06:37 BST Apr 30 
• SUP 1: 0.8482 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 0.8477/60 61.8% of the Mar 28 - Apr 11 rally / 50-day EMA  
• SUP 3: 0.8415 76.4% retracement of the Mar 28 - Apr 11 rally 
• SUP 4: 0.8316 Low Mar 28 and a key support  

EURGBP is trading lower this week, highlighting a continuation of the current bear cycle. Sights are on 0.8477, a Fibonacci retracement point where a break would strengthen the bearish theme. Support at the 50-day EMA, is at 0.8460. It is still possible that the move down that started Apr 11, is a correction. A reversal and a resumption of gains would open 0.8738, the Apr 11 high and bull trigger. 

USDJPY TECHS: Gains Considered Corrective    

• RES 4: 148.27 High Apr 9  
• RES 3: 146.87 50-day EMA 
• RES 2: 146.54 Low Mar 11
• RES 1: 144.06 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 142.51 @ 06:47 BST Apr 30
• SUP 1: 141.49 Low Apr 23   
• SUP 2: 139.79 1.382 proj of the Feb 12 - Mar 11 - 28 price swing
• SUP 3: 138.82 1.500 proj of the Feb 12 - Mar 11 - 28 price swing
• SUP 4: 138.07  Low Jul 28 ‘23

The bounce in USDJPY that started Apr 22 is considered corrective. Resistance to watch is 144.06, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of this level would signal scope for a stronger recovery. Resistance at the 50-day EMA, is at 146.87. Moving average studies remain in a bear-mode position highlighting a dominant downtrend. A resumption of the trend would open 139.79 next, a Fibonacci projection.

EURJPY TECHS: Resistance Remains Exposed      

• RES 4: 165.43 High Nov 8        
• RES 3: 164.90 High Dec 30 ‘24 and a key medium-term resistance   
• RES 2: 164.55 High Jan 7
• RES 1: 163.76/164.19 High Apr 25 / High Mar 18 and the bull trigger 
• PRICE: 162.16 @ 07:02 GMT Apr 30 
• SUP 1: 161.43/159.48 50-day EMA / Low Apr 9    
• SUP 2: 158.30 Low Apr 7 and key support 
• SUP 3: 157.02 76.4% retracement of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 bull cycle 
• SUP 4: 155.60 Low Low Mar 4 

A bullish theme in EURJPY remains intact and short-term weakness appears corrective. Key short-term support lies at 158.30, the Apr 7 low. A break of it is required to signal scope for a deeper retracement. This would open 157.02, a Fibonacci retracement. First support to watch is 161.43, the 50-day EMA. Attention is on 164.19, the Mar 18 high and a bull trigger. Clearance of this hurdle would resume the uptrend.     

AUDUSD TECHS: Northbound   

• RES 4: 0.6550 61.8% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Apr 9 bear leg  
• RES 3: 0.6528 High Nov 29 ‘24
• RES 2: 0.6471 High Dec 9 ‘24
• RES 1: 0.6450 High Apr 29 
• PRICE: 0.6409 @ 07:55 BST Apr 30 
• SUP 1: 0.6344/6310 Low Apr 24 / 50-day EMA  
• SUP 2: 0.6181 Low Apr 11  
• SUP 3: 0.6116 Low Apr 10 
• SUP 4: 0.5915 Low Apr 9 and key support  

The trend condition in AUDUSD remains bullish and the pair is trading at its recent highs. Price has recently breached a key resistance at 0.6409, the Dec 9 ‘24 high. This breach reinforces bullish conditions and signals scope for a continuation higher near-term. Sights are on 0.6471 next, the Dec 9 2024 high. Initial key support to monitor is 0.6310, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this EMA would be a concern for bulls.

USDCAD TECHS: Trend Needle Points South 

• RES 4: 1.4415 High Apr 1
• RES 3: 1.4296 High Apr 7 
• RES 2: 1.4108 50-day EMA 
• RES 1: 1.3906/3959 High Apr 17 / 20-day EMA  
• PRICE: 1.3822 @ 07:59 BST Apr 30
• SUP 1: 1.3781 Low Apr 21 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 2: 1.3744 76.4% retracement of Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bull run
• SUP 3: 1.3696 Low Oct 10 2024
• SUP 4: 1.3643 Low Oct 9 ‘24 

The trend set-up  in USDCAD is unchanged and remains bearish. A fresh cycle low on Apr 21 reinforces the bear cycle and signals scope for a continuation near-term. Potential is seen for a move towards 1.3744, a Fibonacci retracement. Moving average studies are in a bear mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. First resistance to watch is 1.3959, the 20-day EMA. 

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M5) Trend Needle Points North                     

• RES 4: 133.90 1.236 proj of the Mar 25 - Apr 7- 9 price swing                 
• RES 3: 133.00 round number resistance      
• RES 2: 132.56 High Feb 28 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 132.03 High Apr 7 and the bull trigger                    
• PRICE: 131.47 @ 05:35 BST Apr 30
• SUP 1: 130.77/129.92 20-day EMA / Low Apr 11          
• SUP 2: 129.02 Low Apr 10            
• SUP 3: 128.60 Low Apr 9 and a key support   
• SUP 4: 128.47 Low Mar 28  

Bund futures continue to trade below their recent highs. Despite the latest move down, a bull cycle remains in play and the sell-off between Apr 7 - 9 is considered corrective. Attention is on resistance at 132.03, the Apr 7 high and a bull trigger. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open 132.56, the Feb 28 high. Firm support lies at 128.60, the Apr 9 low. A break of this level would alter the picture.                                       

BOBL TECHS: (M5) Trading Closer To Its Recent Highs              

• RES 4: 120.20 High Dec 12 ‘24 (cont)           
• RES 3: 120.000 Psychological round number          
• RES 2: 119.960 High Apr 7 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 119.780 High Apr 22                                     
• PRICE: 119.400 @ 05:45 BST Apr 30  
• SUP 1: 119.180 Low Apr 23       
• SUP 2: 118.996 20-day EMA   
• SUP 3: 118.060 Low Apr 10   
• SUP 4: 117.680 Low Apr 9 and a key support      

Bobl futures are trading closer to their recent highs and a bull cycle remains in play. The steep sell-off between Apr 7 - 9 is considered corrective. The early April rally resulted in a break of key resistance at 119.040, the Feb 28 high, strengthening bullish conditions. The focus is on the 120.000 handle next. Firm support lies at 117.680, the Apr 9 low. The 20-day EMA, an important short-term support, is at 118.996.                   

SCHATZ TECHS: (M5) Bull Cycle Remains In Play                                

• RES 4: 107.812 0.618 proj of the Mar 6 - Apr 7 - 9 price swing     
• RES 3: 107.800 Round number resistance    
• RES 2: 107.775 High Apr 7 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 107.735 High Apr 22                   
• PRICE: 107.485 @ 05:52 BST Apr 30     
• SUP 1: 107.387 20-day EMA 
• SUP 2: 107.252 38.2% retracement of the Mar 6 - Apr 7 bull cycle     
• SUP 3: 107.125 Low Apr 10         
• SUP 4: 106.965 Low Apr 9 and a key support      

A bull cycle in Schatz futures remains in play and the latest pullback appears corrective. Sights are on resistance at 107.775, the Apr 7 high and bull trigger. Clearance of 107.775 would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open 107.812, a Fibonacci projection. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Initial firm support to watch lies at 107.387, the 20-day EMA.                                                        

GILT TECHS: (M5) Bull Cycle Intact                    

• RES 4: 94.75 76.4% of the Dec 3 ‘24 - Jan 13 bear leg (cont)   
• RES 3: 94.50 High Apr 7 and key resistance       
• RES 2: 94.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 93.50 High Apr 29                           
• PRICE: 93.25 @ Close Apr 29
• SUP 1: 92.39 20-day EMA                                      
• SUP 2: 91.73/91.43 Low Apr 17 / 15 
• SUP 3: 90.47/89.99 Low Apr 11 / 9     
• SUP 4: 89.68 Low Jan 15 (cont) 

Gilt futures are holding on to their latest gains. The recent rally marks an extension of the recovery that started Apr 9. 92.63, the Apr 8 high, has been breached, and 93.44, the 76.4% retracement of the Apr 7-9 sell-off, has been pierced. A clear break of this level would strengthen the current bull cycle and open 94.50, the Apr 7 high and a key resistance. On the downside, support to watch is 92.39, the 20-day EMA.                              

BTP TECHS: (M5) Overbought But Remains Bullish                                  

• RES 4: 121.93 76.4% of the Dec 5 ‘24 - Mar 14 bear leg (cont)       
• RES 3: 121.43 1.618 proj of the Mar 14 - Apr 4 - 9 price swing    
• RES 2: 121.00 High Feb 7 (cont) and a key resistance  
• RES 1: 120.65 1.382 proj of the Mar 14 - Apr 4 - 9 price swing               
• PRICE: 120.02 @ Close Apr 28  
• SUP 1: 119.60/119.07 Low Apr 23 / 20-day EMA       
• SUP 2: 117.28 Low Apr 10     
• SUP 3: 116.06 Low Apr 9  
• SUP 4: 115.75 Low Apr 14 and a bear trigger     

A bull cycle in BTP futures remains intact and the contract is holding on to the bulk of its recent gains. The Apr 24 rally reinforces current bullish conditions. The move higher resulted in the break of key resistance at 120.39, the Feb 28 high. Sights are on 120.65 next, a Fibonacci projection. Firm support to watch lies at 119.07, the 20-day EMA. The contract is overbought, a pullback would unwind this trend condition.                

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M5) Trading At Its Recent Highs          

• RES 4: 5341.00 High Mar 27  
• RES 3: 5263.01 76.4% retracement of the Mar 3 - Apr 7 bear leg 
• RES 2: 5165.00 High Apr 3
• RES 1: 5150.00 High Apr 28             
• PRICE: 5119.00 @ 06:14 BST Apr 30 
• SUP 1: 4959.00/4812.00 Low Apr 23 / 16 and a key support                      
• SUP 2: 4664.00 Low Apr 10
• SUP 3: 4444.00 Low Apr 7 and the bear trigger         
• SUP 4: 4336.00 Low Nov 28 ‘23 (cont)     

Eurostoxx 50 futures maintain a positive tone and are holding on to their recent gains. The contract has cleared the 20-day EMA and pierced the 50-day EMA, at 5102.56. A clear break of this average would strengthen the current bull cycle and signal scope for a continuation of the corrective uptrend. This would open 5165.00 next, the Apr 3 high. Support to watch lies at 4812.00, the Apr 16 low. Clearance of this level would highlight a reversal.              

E-MINI S&P: (M5) Approaching The 50-Day EMA                 

• RES 4: 5837.25 High Mar 25 and a bull trigger     
• RES 3: 5773.25 High Apr 2       
• RES 2: 5618.25 50-day EMA and a key resistance 
• RES 1: 5597.25 High Apr 28                              
• PRICE: 5568.00 @ 07:23 BST Apr 30   
• SUP 1: 5355.25/5127.25 Low Apr 24 / 21 and a key support                       
• SUP 2: 4996.43 76.4% retracement of the Apr 7 - 10 bounce
• SUP 3: 4832.00 Low Apr 7 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 4760.88 1.618 proj of the Feb 19 - Mar 13 - 25 price swing 

A corrective bull cycle in S&P E-Minis that started on Apr 7, remains in play. The contract has breached a number of important short-term resistance points. Price has cleared the 20-day EMA and pierced 5528.75, the Apr 10 high. The next key resistance is 5618.25, the 50-day EMA. A clear breach of this EMA would strengthen a bull theme. Initial key support lies at 5127.25, the Apr 21 low. A break would be bearish.              

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (N5) Bearish Theme        

• RES 4: $78.10 - High Jan 15  
• RES 3: $75.81 - High Feb 20
• RES 2: $74.63 - High Apr 2 and a bull trigger
• RES 1: $68.46 - 50-day EMA            
• PRICE: $62.65 @ 07:06 BST Apr 30  
• SUP 1: $61.51/58.00 - Low Apr 10 / 9 and the bear trigger     
• SUP 2: $56.29 - 2.236 proj of the Feb 20 - Mar 5 - Apr 2 price swing
• SUP 3: $55.10 - 2.382 proj of the Feb 20 - Mar 5 - Apr 2 price swing
• SUP 4: $54.00 - Round number support

Brent futures have pulled back from their recent highs and the contract is again trading lower, today. Recent gains are  considered corrective and have allowed an oversold condition to unwind. The primary trend direction remains down and sights are on $56.29 a Fibonacci projection. Initial support to watch lies at $61.51, the Apr 10 low. On the upside, the next important resistance to monitor is at the 50-day EMA, at $68.46.       

WTI TECHS: (M5) Pulls Back From Its Recent Highs                                

• RES 4: $75.51 - High Jan 15 and a key resistance   
• RES 3: $72.56 - High Feb 20
• RES 2: $71.76 - High Apr 2 and key resistance
• RES 1: $65.38 - 50-day EMA  
• PRICE: $59.60 @ 07:20 BST Apr 30 
• SUP 1: $58.29/54.67 - Low Apr 10 / 9 and the bear trigger  
• SUP 2: $53.72 - 2.236 proj of the Feb 20 - Mar 5 - Apr 2 price swing
• SUP 3: $52.54 - 2.382 proj of the Jan 15 - Feb 4 - 11 price swing
• SUP 4: $50.00 - Psychological round number  

A medium-term bearish theme in WTI futures remains intact and the latest move down reinforces this theme, signalling the end of the correction between Apr 9 - 23. The correction allowed an oversold trend condition to unwind. A clear resumption of the bear cycle would open $53.72, a Fibonacci projection. Initial support to watch is at $58.29, the Apr 29 low. Resistance to watch is $65.38, the 50-day EMA.                

GOLD TECHS: Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat                        

• RES 4: $3600.0 - Round number resistance 
• RES 3: $3578.0 - 2.000 proj of the Dec 19 - Feb 24 - Feb 28 swing
• RES 2: $3547.9 - 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - Apr 7 price swing
• RES 1: $3386.6/3500.1 - High Apr 23 / 22 and the bull trigger         
• PRICE: $3308.0 @ 07:20 BST Apr 30 
• SUP 1: $3260.4 - Low Apr 23  
• SUP 2: $3239.5 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: $3167.8 - High Apr 3 and a recent breakout level 
• SUP 4: $3088.2 - 50-day EMA 

Gold is unchanged and the yellow metal continues to trade below its recent highs. The trend needle points north and the latest move down appears corrective. The retracement has allowed an overbought condition to unwind. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend. The next objective is $3547.9, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support to watch lies at 3239.5, the 20-day EMA.                         

SILVER TECHS: Structure Remains Bullish           

• RES 4: $36.000 - Round number resistance 
• RES 3: $34.903 - High Oct 23 ‘24 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: $34.590 - High Mar 28  
• RES 1: $33.686 - High APr 25                                        
• PRICE: $32.832 @ 08:04 BST Apr 30
• SUP 1: $32.087 -  Low Apr 17               
• SUP 2: $30.577/28.351 - Low Apr 10 / 7 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $27.686 - Low Sep 6 ‘24   
• SUP 4: $27.180 - Low Aug 14 ‘24   

A strong rally in Silver on Apr 23 reinforces the current bullish theme and the metal is holding on to the bulk of its latest gains. Price has cleared $33.117, 76.4% of the Mar 28 - Apr 7 bear leg. This paves the way for a climb towards $34.590, the Mar 28 high. On the downside, initial firm support to watch has been defined at $32.087, the Apr 17 low. A break of this level would undermine the bull cycle and highlight a potential reversal.