MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Gilt Vol Erases Bullish Theme

Price Signal Summary – Gilt Volatility Erases Bullish Theme

• The trend condition in S&P E-Minis is unchanged, it remains bullish and the contract continues to appreciate. Resistance at 6128.75, the Jun 11 high, has recently been breached. Short-term trend signals in Eurostoxx 50 futures remain bearish, however, the recovery from the Jun 23 low appears to be a reversal and the contract is holding on to its most recent gains. Price has traded through the 20- and 50-day EMAs.
• A bull cycle in GBPUSD remains in play and a fresh cycle high Tuesday reinforces bullish conditions. For now, Wednesday’s sell-off appears corrective. Support to watch lies at 1.3591, the 20-day EMA. A bear threat in USDJPY remains intact. The Jun 23 shooting star candle formation highlighted a reversal of the recent recovery and this signal remains in play. The trend needle in USDCAD continues to point south and short-term gains between Jun 16 - 23 appear to have been corrective. Key support and the bear trigger has been defined at 1.3540, the Jun 16 low.
• Recent weakness in Gold resulted in a breach of the 50-day EMA, and a trendline drawn from the Dec 30 ‘24 low. A clear break of both trend tools would signal scope for a deeper correction - this would expose $3245.5, the May 29 low. WTI futures maintain a softer tone following the reversal from the Jun 23 high. Wednesday’s gains - for now - appear corrective. Support to watch is the 50-day EMA, at $64.75.
• Bund futures traded lower Wednesday resulting in a break below key short-term support at 130.12, the Jun 5 low. A clear break of this price point highlights a bearish threat, undermines the recent bullish theme, and signals scope for an extension towards 129.30. Gilt futures faced strong selling pressure on Wednesday. The move down has cancelled a recent bullish theme - price has breached the 20-day EMA and traded through a key support at 92.23, the Jun 16 low.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE    

EURUSD TECHS: Bull Cycle Intact                      

• RES 4: 1.1923 2.000 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - 27 price swing
• RES 3: 1.1868 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 1.1851 High Sep 10 2021 
• RES 1: 1.1829 High Jul 01
• PRICE: 1.1790 @ 06:01 BST Jul 3
• SUP 1: 1.1681 Low Jun  27
• SUP 2: 1.1599 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.1446 Low Jun 19  
• SUP 4: 1.1421 50-day EMA

A bull cycle in EURUSD remains in play and price is trading at its recent highs. The breach last week of 1.1631, the Jun 12 high and a bull trigger, confirmed a resumption of the uptrend. The 1.1800 handle has been pierced, sights are on 1.1851, the Sep 10 2021 high. Key short-term support to watch lies at 1.1599, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of this average is required to signal scope for a deeper retracement.       

GBPUSD TECHS: Corrective Pullback   

• RES 4: 1.3852 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - 7 price swing
• RES 3: 1.3835 High Oct 20 2021
• RES 2: 1.3800 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 1.3789 High Jul 01
• PRICE: 1.3627 @ 06:23 BST Jul 3
• SUP 1: 1.3591/63 20-day EMA / Low Jul 02
• SUP 2: 1.34465 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.3348 Trendline support drawn from the Jan 13 low 
• SUP 4: 1.3140 Low May 12 and key support

A bull cycle in GBPUSD remains in play and a fresh cycle high Tuesday reinforces bullish conditions. For now, Wednesday’s sell-off appears corrective. Support to watch lies at 1.3591, the 20-day EMA. A clear break would signal scope for a deeper corrective pullback towards the 50-day EMA at 1.3446. Key resistance and the bull trigger has been defined at 1.3789, the Jul 1 high. A break would resume the uptrend.          

EURGBP TECHS: Northbound 

• RES 4: 0.8781 2.236 pro of the Mar 3 - 11 - 28 price swing 
• RES 3: 0.8738 High Apr 11 high and a key resistance
• RES 2: 0.8694 High Apr 14 
• RES 1: 0.8670 High Jul 02
• PRICE: 0.8648 @ 06:37 BST Jul 3
• SUP 1: 0.8578 Low Jul 2 
• SUP 2: 0.8534/8493 20- and 50-day EMA values 
• SUP 3: 0.8459 Low Jun 11
• SUP 4: 0.8407 Low Jun 4

The trend condition in EURGBP remains bullish and this week’s gains together with Wednesday’s acceleration, reinforce current conditions. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position - highlighting a dominant uptrend. 0.8648, 76.4% of the Apr 11 - May 29 downleg, has been pierced. A continuation higher would open 0.8738, the Apr 11 high and a key resistance. Support to watch lies at 0.8534, the 20-day EMA.    

USDJPY TECHS: Bear Threat Remains Present      

• RES 4: 149.28 High Apr 3  
• RES 3: 148.65 High May 12 and a reversal trigger
• RES 2: 146.19/148.03 High Jun 24 / 23
• RES 1: 144.92 50-day EMA  
• PRICE: 143.86 @ 06:58 BST Jul 3
• SUP 1: 142.68 Low Jul 1   
• SUP 2: 142.12 Low May 27 and a key short-term support 
• SUP 3: 141.96 76.4% retracement of the Apr 22 - May 12 upleg
• SUP 4: 141.49 Low Apr 23    

A bear threat in USDJPY remains intact. The Jun 23 shooting star candle formation highlighted a reversal of the recent recovery and this signal remains in play. Note too that price has traded through the 20- and 50-day EMAs. A clear break of the EMAs strengthens a bearish threat and opens 142.12, the May 27 low and a key short-term support. Initial resistance is at 144.92, the 50-day EMA.     

EURJPY TECHS: Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat   

• RES 4: 171.28 1.382 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - Apr 7 price swing
• RES 3: 171.09 High Jul 23 ‘24  
• RES 2: 170.47 76.4% Fibonacci retracement for Jul - Aug ‘24 downleg
• RES 1: 169.91 1.236 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - Apr 7 price swing
• PRICE: 169.66 @ 07:58 BST Jul 03 
• SUP 1: 168.46 Low Jul 01 
• SUP 2: 167.61 20-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 166.04 Low Jun 19   
• SUP 4: 165.47 50-day EMA   

The trend set-up in EURJPY is unchanged, it remains bullish. Recent gains resulted in a break of 166.69, the Oct 31 ‘24 high. Scope is seen for a climb towards 170.47, a key Fibonacci retracement point. Note that the uptrend is in overbought territory, a pullback would unwind this condition. Support to watch lies at 167.61, the 20-day EMA. A break of the EMA would suggest potential for a deeper retracement.       

AUDUSD TECHS: Bull Cycle Remains Intact       

• RES 4: 0.6700 76.4% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Apr 9 bear leg
• RES 3: 0.6688 High Nov 7 ‘24
• RES 2: 0.6603 High Nov 11 ‘24
• RES 1: 0.6590 High Jul 01
• PRICE: 0.6576 @ 08:04 BST Jul 03 
• SUP 1: 0.6515 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 0.6463/6373 50-day EMA / Low Jun 23 and a reversal trigger     
• SUP 3: 0.6357 Low May 12
• SUP 4: 0.6275 Low Apr 14

The medium-term trend set-up in AUDUSD is unchanged, it remains bullish and this week’s gains strengthen current conditions. The break higher maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows, the definition of an uptrend. Sights are on 0.6603 next, the Nov 11 2024 high. Key short-term support has been defined at 0.6373, the Jun 23 low. A pullback would be considered corrective.   

USDCAD TECHS: Bearish Price Sequence      

• RES 4: 1.4111 High Apr 4
• RES 3: 1.4016 High May 12 and 13 and a key resistance 
• RES 2: 1.3920 High May 21 
• RES 1: 1.3784 50-day EMA 
• PRICE: 1.3596 @ 08:11 BST Jul 3
• SUP 1: 1.3579 Intraday low 
• SUP 2: 1.3540 Low Jun 16 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.3503 1.618 proj of the Feb 3 - 14 - Mar 4 price swing
• SUP 4: 1.3473 Low Oct 2 2024

The trend needle in USDCAD continues to point south and short-term gains between Jun 16 - 23 appear to have been corrective. Key support and the bear trigger has been defined at 1.3540, the Jun 16 low. Clearance of this price point would resume the downtrend and open 1.3503, a Fibonacci projection. Pivot resistance to monitor is at the 50-day EMA, at 1.3784. A clear break of this average would signal scope for a stronger recovery.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U5) Breaches Support                            

• RES 4: 132.42 2.000 proj of the May 14 - 20 - 22 price swing
• RES 3: 132.00 Round number resistance    
• RES 2: 131.95 High Jun 13 and the bull trigger 
• RES 1: 130.53/131.33 50-day EMA / High Jun 20
• PRICE: 129.89 @ 05:36 BST Jul 3
• SUP 1: 129.77 Low Jul 3              
• SUP 2: 129.67 76.4% retracement of the May 14 - Jun 13 bull leg  
• SUP 3: 129.30 Low May 22   
• SUP 4: 128.97 Low May 14 and a reversal trigger  

Bund futures traded lower Wednesday resulting in a break below key short-term support at 130.12, the Jun 5 low. A clear break of this price point highlights a bearish threat, undermines the recent bullish theme, and signals scope for an extension towards 129.30, the May 22 low. The contract has recovered from Monday's low. Key resistance has been defined at 131.95, the Jun 13 high. Initial resistance is at 130.53, the 50-day EMA.                                                   

BOBL TECHS: (U5) Pierces Support                      

• RES 4: 118.649 1.382 proj of the May 21 - Jun 3 - Jun 5 swing
• RES 3: 118.531 1.236 proj of the May 21 - Jun 3 - Jun 5 swing
• RES 2: 118.390 High Jun 13 and a bull trigger 
• RES 1: 117.801/118.060 20-day EMA / High Jun 20    
• PRICE: 117.560 @ 05:58 BST Jul 3  
• SUP 1: 117.500 Low Jul 2  
• SUP 2: 117.411 0.764 proj of the Jun 13 - 16 - 20 price swing  
• SUP 3: 117.210 1.000 proj of the Jun 13 - 16 - 20 price swing
• SUP 4: 117.009 1.236 proj of the Jun 13 - 16 - 20 price swing      

Bobl futures traded lower yesterday. A bull cycle remains intact, however, the latest pullback has exposed key short-term support at 117.530, the Jun 5 low. The support has been pierced, a clear break of it would highlight a stronger reversal and cancel the bull theme. This would open 117.470, the May 21 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 118.390, the Jun 13 high. A break of this price point would be a bullish development.                             

SCHATZ TECHS: (U5) Monitoring Support                             

• RES 4: 107.690 High Apr 30 
• RES 3: 107.610 High May 23 and a key near-term resistance
• RES 2: 107.430/475 High Jun 13 / High May 27
• RES 1: 107.280 20-day EMA 
• PRICE: 107.230 @ 06:11 BST Jul 3
• SUP 1: 107.195/180 Low Jun 6 / 23    
• SUP 2: 107.125 Low May 12 and a key support
• SUP 3: 107.000 Round number support 
• SUP 4: 106.890 2.000 proj of the May 23 - 29 - 30 price swing

Schatz futures remain inside a range and price continues to trade below the Jun 13 high. Support to watch is 107.195, the Jun 6 low. It has been pierced, a clear break of it would reinstate a bearish threat and signal scope for an extension towards 107.125, the May 12 low. On the upside, clearance of 107.470, the May 30 high, is required to strengthen a bullish condition. Initial firm resistance is 107.430, Jun 13 high.

GILT TECHS: (U5) Strong Reversal                      

• RES 4: 93.76 High Jul 1 and key resistance   
• RES 3: 93.41 Intraday high      
• RES 2: 92.71 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 92.25 Low Jun 23  
• PRICE: 92.03 @ Close Jul 2 
• SUP 1: 91.63 Low Jul 2  
• SUP 2: 91.50 61.8% retracement of the May 22 - Jul 1 bull leg 
• SUP 3: 91.16 Low Feb 2     
• SUP 4: 90.97 76.4% retracement of the May 22 - Jul 1 bull leg       

Gilt futures faced strong selling pressure on Wednesday. The move down has cancelled a recent bullish theme - price has breached the 20-day EMA and traded through a key support at 92.23, the Jun 16 low. The break lower suggests potential for an extension towards 91.50 next, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, initial resistance to watch is 92.71, the 20-day EMA.                                      

BTP TECHS: (U5) Pullback Appears Corrective

• RES 4: 122.71 2.764proj of the May 14 - 20 - 21 price swing
• RES 3: 122.35 2.500 proj of the May 14 - 20 - 21 price swing 
• RES 2: 122.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 121.73 High Jun 13 and the bull trigger 
• PRICE: 120.60 @ Close Jul 2 
• SUP 1: 120.09 Low Jun 23      
• SUP 2: 119.48 Low May 26 
• SUP 3: 118.87 Low May 21  
• SUP 4: 118.51 Low May 14 and key support 

The trend condition in BTP futures is unchanged, it remains bullish and short-term weakness appears corrective - for now. Gains in June reinforce a bull theme and maintain the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on the 122.00 handle next. Key support to watch is unchanged at 118.51, the May 14 low. A clear break of this level would highlight a reversal. First support is 120.09, the Jun 23  low.                   

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (U5) Holding On To Its Most Recent Gains    

• RES 4: 5486.00 High May 20 and a key bull trigger  
• RES 3: 5456.00 High Jun 11 
• RES 2: 5403.00 High Jun 12 
• RES 1: 5366.00 High Jun 30    
• PRICE: 5343.00 @ 06:25 BST Jul 3 
• SUP 1: 5194.00 Low Jun 23 and a bear trigger    
• SUP 2: 5182.00 Low May 2 
• SUP 3: 5100.94 38.2% retracement of the Apr 7 - May 20 bull leg
• SUP 4: 5078.00 Low Apr 30  

Short-term trend signals in Eurostoxx 50 futures remain bearish, however, the recovery from the Jun 23 low appears to be a reversal and the contract is holding on to its most recent gains. Price has traded through the 20- and 50-day EMAs. A clear break of both EMAs would strengthen a reversal theme. This would open 5486.00, the May 20 high and bull trigger. On the downside, a breach of 5194.00, the Jun 23 low, reinstates a bearish theme.                

E-MINI S&P: (U5) Continues To Appreciate   

• RES 4: 6381.00 1.764 proj of the Apr 7 - 10 - 21 price swing      
• RES 3: 6356.12 1.236 proj of the May 23 - Jun 11 - 23 price swing 
• RES 2: 6300.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 6277.50/6284.00 High Feb 19 and a bull trigger / Intraday high   
• PRICE: 6280.50 @ 07:26 BST Jul 3  
• SUP 1: 6118.90/5987.37 20- and 50-day EMA values
• SUP 2: 5811.50 Low May 23    
• SUP 3: 5645.75 Low May 7
• SUP 4: 5500.00 Low Apr 30

The trend condition in S&P E-Minis is unchanged, it remains bullish and the contract continues to appreciate. Resistance at 6128.75, the Jun 11 high, has recently been breached. The break confirms a resumption of the uptrend that started Apr 7. Note too that a key resistance and a bull trigger at 6277.50, the Feb 21 high, has been pierced. Clearance of this hurdle would open the 6300.00 handle. Key support is at the 50-day EMA - at 5987.53.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (U5) Bear Threat Remains Present  

• RES 4: $85.00 - Round number resistance 
• RES 3: $81.99 - 2.764 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 2: $80.72 - 2.618 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 1: $72.66/79.40 - 50.0% of the Jun 23-30 range / High Jun 23
• PRICE: $68.61 @ 07:05 BST Jul 3
• SUP 1: $65.92 - Low Jun 30 
• SUP 2: $61.39 - Low May 30
• SUP 3: $58.00 - Low May 5
• SUP 4: $57.70 - Low Apr 9 and a key support   

A bear threat in Brent futures remains present despite yesterday’s gains. The contract traded sharply lower on Jun 23, and for now, this highlights a bearish theme. The move down has resulted in a breach of the 50-day EMA and note too that $66.17, the 61.8% retracement of the May 5 - Jun 23 bull leg, has been pierced. A continuation lower would expose $61.39 next, the May 30 low. Initial resistance to watch is $72.66, a Fibonacci retracement point.             

WTI TECHS: (Q5) Bearish Outlook Despite Bounce          

• RES 4: $82.62 - 3.000 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 3: $80.43 - 2.764 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing 
• RES 2: $80.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 1: $71.20/78.40 - 50.0% of the Jun 23-24 range / High Jun 23  
• PRICE: $66.91 @ 07:13 BST Jul 3 
• SUP 1: $64.75/00 - 50-day EMA / Low Jun 24 
• SUP 2: $58.87 - Low May 30
• SUP 3: $54.81 - Low May 5
• SUP 4: $54.13 - Low Apr 9 and a key support  

WTI futures maintain a softer tone following the reversal from the Jun 23 high. Wednesday’s gains - for now - appear corrective. Support to watch is the 50-day EMA, at $64.75. It has been pierced, a clear break of it would signal scope for a deeper retracement. This would expose $58.87, the May 30 low. Initial resistance to watch is $71.20, the 50.0% retracement of the Jun 23 - 24 high-low range. Key resistance is at $78.40, the Jun 23 high.     

GOLD TECHS: Recovery Extends                                       

• RES 4: $3547.9 - 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - Apr 7 price swing
• RES 3: $3500.1 - High Apr 22 and bull trigger
• RES 2: $3395.1 - High Jun 23  
• RES 1: $3365.8/3451.3 - High Jul 2 / High Jun 16          
• PRICE: $3358.2 @ 07:18 BST Jul 3 
• SUP 1: $3248.7 - Low Jun 30 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 2: $3204.7 - Low May 20
• SUP 3: $3121.0 - Low May 15 and key support
• SUP 4: $3085.0 - 76.4% retracement of the Apr 7 - 22 bull leg  

Recent weakness in Gold resulted in a breach of the 50-day EMA, and a trendline drawn from the Dec 30 ‘24 low. A clear break of both trend tools would signal scope for a deeper correction - this would expose $3245.5, the May 29 low. The metal has recovered from Monday’s low and for now, this highlights a possible false trendline break. Stronger gains would refocus attention $3451.3, Jun 16 high. The bear trigger is $3248.7, the Jun 30 low.          

SILVER TECHS: Support Remains Intact                    

• RES 4: $39.026 - 1.382 proj of the Apr 7 - 25 - May 15 swing
• RES 3: $38.246 - 1.236 proj of the Apr 7 - 25 - May 15 swing
• RES 2: $38.000 - Round number resistance 
• RES 1: $37.317 - High Jun 18 and the bull trigger   
• PRICE: $36.792 @ 08:14 BST Jul 3  
• SUP 1: $35.891 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $34.782/31.651 - 50-day EMA / Low May 15
• SUP 3: $30.915/28.351 - Low Apr 11 / 7 and the bear trigger  
• SUP 4: $27.686 - Low Sep 6 ‘24  

A bull cycle in Silver remains in play. The metal has recently traded through resistance at $34.903, the Oct 23 ‘24 high and a key bull trigger. The break of it marks an important medium-term bullish development. Sights are on the $38.00 handle next. On the downside, initial support to watch lies at $35.891, the 20-day EMA. It has been pierced, a clear break of it would open $34.782, the 50-day EMA.