MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Gilt Trend Remains Bullish

Price Signal Summary – Gilt Trend Remains Bullish

• The trend condition in S&P E-Minis is unchanged, it remains bullish and the latest pullback appears corrective. Attention is on support at the 20-day EMA, at 6804.03. A clear break of this level average would signal scope for a deeper retracement. Short-term weakness in Eurostoxx 50 futures is considered corrective. The contract has breached the 20-day EMA, signalling scope for a deeper retracement towards support at the 50-day EMA, at 5567.19.
• A bear cycle in GBPUSD remains intact and the pair is trading at its trend lows. A key support at 1.3142, the Aug 1 low, has been cleared. The break confirms a resumption of the downtrend that started Sep 17. The trend condition in USDJPY remains bullish and the pair is trading closer to its recent trend highs. The break higher last week confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and note too that moving average studies are in a bull-mode. A softer short-term tone in AUDUSD remains intact for now and today’s move lower reinforces this theme. The pair has also traded through the 50-day EMA - a bearish development - and the move down undermines a recent bullish theme.
• Gold is unchanged. A fresh cycle low last week highlights an extension of the bear cycle that started Oct 20. The retracement since Oct 20 has allowed an overbought trend condition to unwind. WTI futures remain in a corrective cycle for now. Note that price has recently traded through the 50-day EMA, currently at $61.05. The breach of this EMA signals scope for a stronger recovery. Note too that a resistance at $62.34, the Oct 8 high, has also been pierced.
• Bund futures traded to a fresh short-term cycle low yesterday. A bear cycle remains intact for now. The move down that started on Oct 17 still appears corrective and has allowed an overbought trend condition to unwind. The trend structure in Gilt futures remains bullish. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. The next upside objective is 94.00.

[CROSS ASSET]: Refreshing the MNI Tech Trend Monitor, Adding Gold, Silver, JPY

• We refresh our Global Tech Trend Monitor, adding longer-term techs for Spot Gold, Silver and USDJPY, while refreshing levels for UK Gilt 10y and 30y yields as well as the Europe Banking Stock Index (SX7E).

See full document here:  https://emedia.marketnews.com/marketnewsintl/MNITechTrendMonitorOct25.pdf

FOREIGN EXCHANGE    

EURUSD TECHS: Bear Cycle Still In Play     

• RES 4: 1.1779 High Oct 1
• RES 3: 1.1728 High Oct 17
• RES 2: 1.1669 High Oct 28 and key resistance 
• RES 1: 1.1577/1618 Low Oct 22 / 20-day EMA 
• PRICE: 1.1514 @ 06:07 GMT Nov 4
• SUP 1: 1.1498 Low Nov 3
• SUP 2: 1.1460 1.382 proj of the Oct 17 - 22 - 28 price swing
• SUP 3: 1.1392 Low Aug 1 and bear trigger 
• SUP 4: 1.1313 Low May 30

A bear leg in EURUSD remains intact. Last week’s move down resulted in a breach of an important support  at 1.1542, the Oct 9 low. This confirms a resumption of the current downtrend. Note that 1.1516, the 76.4% retracement of the Aug 1 - Sep 17 bull leg, has also been cleared. An extension of the bear leg would expose key support at 1.1392, the Aug 1 low. First jey resistance to watch is 1.1669, the Oct 17 high.           

GBPUSD TECHS: Trading At Its Recent Lows         

• RES 4: 1.3527 High Oct 1     
• RES 3: 1.3471 High Oct 17 and a key short-term resistance    
• RES 2: 1.3383 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.3249/3304 Low Oct 14 / 20-day EMA 
• PRICE: 1.3123 @ 06:23 GMT Nov 4
• SUP 1: 1.3097 Low Oct 31
• SUP 2: 1.3041 Low Apr 14
• SUP 3: 1.2971 1.382 proj of the Sep 17 - 25 - Oct 1 price swing
• SUP 4: 1.2945 50.0% retracement of the Jan 13 - Jul 1 bull leg           

A bear cycle in GBPUSD remains intact and the pair is trading at its trend lows. A key support at 1.3142, the Aug 1 low, has been cleared. The break confirms a resumption of the downtrend that started Sep 17. Sights are on 1.3041 next, the Apr 14 low. Initial firm resistance is 1.3304, the 20-day EMA.  Note that the trend is in oversold territory, a recovery would allow this condition to unwind.               

EURGBP TECHS: Bullish Trend Theme 

• RES 4: 0.8865 1.764 proj of the Sep 15 - 25 - Oct 8 price swing  
• RES 3: 0.8848 1.618 proj of the Sep 15 - 25 - Oct 8 price swing  
• RES 2: 0.8835 High May 3 2023
• RES 1: 0.8818 High Oct 29
• PRICE: 0.8781 @ 06:40 GMT Nov 4
• SUP 1: 0.8751 High Sep 25  
• SUP 2: 0.8733 20-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 0.8702 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 0.8656 Low Oct 8 and a key support  

A bull cycle in EURGBP remains intact. The break last week of resistance at 0.8769, the Jul 28 high and a bull trigger, confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on 0.8835, the May 3 2023 high. Initial support lies at 0.8751, the Sep 25 high. Note that the trend is overbought, a pullback would be considered corrective.   

USDJPY TECHS: Trend Structure Remains Bullish  

• RES 4: 155.89 High Feb 3
• RES 3: 155.53 2.00% retracement of the Jan 10 - Apr 22 bear leg
• RES 2: 154.80 High Feb 12
• RES 1: 154.48 Intraday high
• PRICE: 153.64 @ 06:58 GMT Nov 4 
• SUP 1: 153.27 High Oct 10
• SUP 2: 152.06 20-day EMA   
• SUP 3: 150.28 50-day EMA  
• SUP 4: 149.38 Low Oct 17 

The trend condition in USDJPY remains bullish and the pair is trading closer to its recent trend highs. The break higher last week confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and note too that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend.Sights are on 154.80, the Feb 12 high. First important support to watch lies at 152.06, the 20-day EMA. A pullback would be considered corrective.    

EURJPY TECHS: Approaching Support At The 20-Day EMA  

• RES 4: 180.37 1.500 proj of the Jul 31 - Sep 29 - Oct 2 price swing  
• RES 3: 180.00 Psychological round number
• RES 2: 178.94 1.236 proj of the Jul 31 - Sep 29 - Oct 2 price swing
• RES 1: 178.82 High Oct 30 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 176.80 @ 07:33 GMT Nov 4 
• SUP 1: 176.65 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 175.00 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 173.92 Low Oct 6 and a gap high on the daily chart   
• SUP 4: 173.36 Bull channel support drawn from the Feb 28 low  

The trend structure in EURJPY is bullish and the latest pullback is considered corrective. The cross traded to a fresh cycle high last Thursday, confirming a resumption of the primary uptrend. This opens 178.94 next, a 1.236 projection of the Jul 31 - Sep 29 - Oct 2 price swing. Initial support to watch lies at 176.65, the 20-day EMA. A clear breach of this average would signal scope for a deeper correction. The bull trigger is at 178.82, the Oct 30 high.    

AUDUSD TECHS: Pullback Extends 

• RES 4: 0.6707 High Sep 17 and a bull trigger
• RES 3: 0.6664 2.0% 10-dma Envelope
• RES 2: 0.6644 76.4% retracement of the Sep-Oct bear leg  
• RES 1: 0.6562/0.6618 High Nov 3 / High Oct 29
• PRICE: 0.6515 @ 08:04 GMT Nov 4 
• SUP 1: 0.6505 Intraday low 
• SUP 2: 0.6493 Low Oct 24  
• SUP 3: 0.6440 Low Oct 14 and key support
• SUP 4: 0.6415 Low Aug 21 / 22 and a bear trigger   

A softer short-term tone in AUDUSD remains intact for now and today’s move lower reinforces this theme. The pair has also traded through the 50-day EMA - a bearish development - and the move down undermines a recent bullish theme. A continuation lower would signal scope for an extension towards the first key support at 0.6440, the Oct 14 low. Key resistance and a short-term bull trigger is at 0.6618, the Oct 29 high.        

USDCAD TECHS: Bullish Recovery     

• RES 4: 1.4200 Round number resistance  
• RES 3: 1.4167 50.0% retracement of the Feb 3 - Jun 16 bear leg
• RES 2: 1.4111 High Apr 10
• RES 1: 1.4080 High Oct 16 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 1.4060 @ 08:11 GMT Nov 4
• SUP 1: 1.3987 20-day EMA 
• SUP 2: 1.3928 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 1.3888 Low Oct 29 and a key support  
• SUP 4: 1.3855 Bull channel base drawn from the Jul 23 low

A strong rally in USDCAD last week, and Monday’s extension, highlights a reversal of the corrective bear leg between Oct 14 - 29. A recent doji candle on Oct 29 signalled a short-term reversal. Note too that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on 1.4080, the Oct 16 high and a bull trigger. First support lies at 1.3987, the 20-day EMA.    

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (Z5) Pierces Support At The 50-Day EMA                 

• RES 4: 130.63 1.500 proj of the Sep 3 - 10 - 25 price swing 
• RES 3: 130.59 High Oct 17 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 130.07 High Oct 24 
• RES 1: 129.42129.73 20-day EMA / High Oct 28     
• PRICE: 129.20 @ 05:47 GMT Nov 4 
• SUP 1: 129.06 Low Nov 3      
• SUP 2: 128.92 61.8% retracement of the Sep 25 - Oct 17 bull leg
• SUP 3: 128.52 76.4% retracement of the Sep 25 - Oct 17 bull leg
• SUP 4: 128.25 Low Oct 7  

Bund futures traded to a fresh short-term cycle low yesterday. A bear cycle remains intact for now. The move down that started on Oct 17 still appears corrective and has allowed an overbought trend condition to unwind. However, price has pierced a key support at 129.13, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this EMA signals scope for a deeper retracement and opens 128.92, a Fibonacci retracement. First important resistance is 129.73, Oct 28 high.              

BOBL TECHS: (Z5) Bear Cycle Intact For Now     

• RES 4: 119.000 Round number resistance        
• RES 3: 118.970 High Oct 17 and key resistance    
• RES 2: 118.770 High Oct 22 
• RES 1: 118.360/600 High Oct 28 / 24   
• PRICE: 118.130 @ 05:55 GMT Nov 4
• SUP 1: 118.020 Low Oct 30  
• SUP 2: 118.043 61.8% retracement of the Sep 25 - Oct 17 bull cycle    
• SUP 3: 117.900 Low Oct 10   
• SUP 4: 117.824 76.4% retracement of the Sep 25 - Oct 17 bull cycle 

A bear cycle in Bobl futures remains intact for now and the contract is trading closer to its recent lows.The move down that started Oct 17 is considered corrective and has allowed a recent overbought trend condition to unwind. However, support around the 50-day EMA, at 118.163, has been breached. This signals scope for a deeper retracement and opens 117.900, the Oct 10 low. Initial resistance is at 118.360, the Oct 28 high.   

SCHATZ TECHS: (Z5) Monitoring Support       

• RES 4: 107.348 50.0% retracement of Apr 7 - Sep 25 bear leg (cont) 
• RES 3: 107.320 High Oct 17 and the bull trigger 
• RES 2: 107.235 High Oct 22 
• RES 1: 107.104/175 50-day EMA / High Oct 24   
• PRICE: 107.045 @ 06:14 GMT Nov 4
• SUP 1: 107.010 Low Oct 30  
• SUP 2: 106.995 Low  Oct 8   
• SUP 3: 106.965 Low Oct 6
• SUP 4: 106.920 Low Sep 25 and a key support  

A short-term bear cycle in Schatz futures remains intact - for now. The current bear cycle that started Oct 17 is considered corrective and is allowing a recent overbought trend condition to unwind. Note that 107.014, the 76.4% retracement of the Sep 25 - Oct 17 bull leg and the next important support, has been pierced. A clear break of it would signal scope for a deeper retracement. Initial resistance is at 107.104, the 50-day EMA.           

GILT TECHS: (Z5) Trading Above Support             

• RES 4: 94.60 1.764proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 26 price swing 
• RES 3: 94.24 1.618 proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 26 price swing        
• RES 2: 94.00 Round number resistance 
• RES 1: 93.96 High Oct 28  
• PRICE: 93.37 @ Close Nov 3
• SUP 1: 93.15 Low Oct 27       
• SUP 2: 92.81 20-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 92.38 Low Oct 20
• SUP 4: 92.07 50-day EMA   

The trend structure in Gilt futures remains bullish. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. The next upside objective is 94.00. Clearance of this level would open 94.24, a Fibonacci projection. Note that the contract is overbought, a short-term pullback would allow this trend condition to unwind. Initial firm support to watch 92.81, the 20-day EMA.       

BTP TECHS: (Z5) Pullback Appears Corrective     

• RES 4: 123.14 1.764 proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 25 price swing
• RES 3: 122.81 1.618 proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 25 price swing
• RES 2: 122.53 1.500 proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 25 price swing
• RES 1: 121.94 High Oct 17 / 22 and the bull trigger  
• PRICE: 121.29 @ Close Nov 3
• SUP 1: 120.74 High Aug 5 and a recent breakout level          
• SUP 2: 120.57 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 120.13 Low Oct 10 
• SUP 4: 119.48 Low Oct 7

The trend conditions in BTP futures remains bullish and recent weakness is - for now - considered corrective. Note the moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. The bull trigger is 121.94, the Oct 17 / 24 high. Initial firm support to watch is 120.74, the Aug 5 high. The contract is overbought, a deeper retracement would allow this condition to unwind.                          

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (Z5) Corrective Pullback  

• RES 4: 5804.00 Bull channel top drawn from the Aug 1 low
• RES 3: 5800.00 Round number resistance  
• RES 2: 5777.41 1.382 proj of the Aug 1 - 22 - Sep 2 price swing
• RES 1: 5742.00 High Oct 29 and the bull trigger       
• PRICE: 5633.00 @ 06:31 GMT Nov 4
• SUP 1: 5611.00 Low Oct 22   
• SUP 2: 5567.19 50-day EMA  
• SUP 3: 5549.50 Bear channel base drawn from the Aug 1 low  
• SUP 4: 5497.00 Low Oct 14       

Short-term weakness in Eurostoxx 50 futures is considered corrective. The contract has breached the 20-day EMA, signalling scope for a deeper retracement towards support at the 50-day EMA, at 5567.19. Support below the EMA lies at 5549.50, the base of a bull channel drawn from the Aug 1 low. A breach of this level and the 50-day EMA, is required to highlight a stronger reversal. Key resistance and bull trigger is 5742.00, the Oct 29 high.           

E-MINI S&P: (Z5) Approaching Support         

• RES 4: 7000.00 Psychological round number 
• RES 3: 6993.12 3.500 proj of the Aug 20 - 28 - Sep 2 price swing
• RES 2: 6974.04 3.382 proj of the Aug 20 - 28 - Sep 2 price swing 
• RES 1: 6953.75 High Oct 30 and the bull trigger  
• PRICE: 6818.75 @ 06:42 GMT Nov 4
• SUP 1: 6804.03 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 6698.11 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 6571.25 Low Oct 17 
• SUP 4: 6540.25 Low Oct 10 and a key short-term support

The trend condition in S&P E-Minis is unchanged, it remains bullish and the latest pullback appears corrective. Attention is on support at the 20-day EMA, at 6804.03. A clear break of this level average would signal scope for a deeper retracement and expose the 50-day EMA at 6698.11 - a key pivot support. The bull trigger has been defined at 6953.75, the Oct 30 high. Clearance of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend.     

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (F6) Corrective Phase           

• RES 4: $71.45 - 76.4% retracement of the Jun 23 - Oct 20 bear leg  
• RES 3: $70.69 - High Jul 30
• RES 2: $69.29 - High Sep 26 and a key resistance 
• RES 1: $65.98 - High Oct 9 
• PRICE: $64.60 @ 07:05 GMT Nov 4
• SUP 1: $63.37/59.97 - Low Oct 24 / 20 and the bear trigger  
• SUP 2: $58.72 - Low May 5
• SUP 3: $57.99 - Low Apr 9 and a key support
• SUP 4: $56.05 - 2.00 proj of the Jul 30 - Aug 13 - Sep 26 price swing 

A short-term corrective bull cycle in Brent futures appears intact for now and the contract is trading closer to its recent highs. Price has recently traded through the 50-day EMA, at $64.72. Clearance of this hurdle signals scope for a stronger recovery. The next hurdle to monitor is  $65.98, the Oct 9 high. A clear breach of this level would expose a key resistance at $69.29, the Sep 26 high. Key support and the bear trigger lies at $59.97, the Oct 20 low.       

WTI TECHS: (Z5) Monitoring Resistance       

• RES 4: $71.47 - High Jun 23 and a key medium-term resistance 
• RES 3: $67.68 - High Jul 30
• RES 2: $65.77/68.43 - High Sep 26 and key resistance 
• RES 1: $62.59 - High Oct 24    
• PRICE: $60.74 @ 07:16 GMT Nov 4 
• SUP 1: $59.64/55.96 - Low Oct 23 & 30 / Low Oct 20 and bear trigger
• SUP 2: $54.85 - Low May 5
• SUP 3: $54.16 - Low Apr 9 and a key support
• SUP 4: $53.23 - 1.764 proj of the Jul 30 - Aug 13 - Sep 26 price swing   

WTI futures remain in a corrective cycle for now. Note that price has recently traded through the 50-day EMA, currently at $61.05. The breach of this EMA signals scope for a stronger recovery. Note too that a resistance at $62.34, the Oct 8 high, has also been pierced. A clear move through it would expose key resistance at $65.77, the Sep 26 high. First key support and the bear trigger is unchanged at $55.96, the Oct 20 low.    

GOLD TECHS: Corrective Phase Remains In Play For Now         

• RES 4: $4404.9 - 3.500 proj of the May 15 - Jun 16 - 30 price swing
• RES 3: $4400.0 - Round number resistance
• RES 2: $4161.4/4381.5 - High Oct 22 / High Oct 20 and bull trigger
• RES 1: $4046.2 - High Oct 31                 
• PRICE: $3992.1 @ 07:23 GMT Nov 4 
• SUP 1: $3886.6 - Low Oct 28  
• SUP 2: $3864.7 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $3800.00 Round number support 
• SUP 4: $3751.3 - 50.0% retracement of the May 15 - Oct 20 bull leg

Gold is unchanged. A fresh cycle low last week highlights an extension of the bear cycle that started Oct 20. The retracement since Oct 20 has allowed an overbought trend condition to unwind. The 20-day EMA has been breached, signalling scope for a test of the 50-day EMA, at $3864.7. Clearance of this EMA would strengthen a short-term bear theme. Initial resistance is at $4161.4, the Oct 22 high.                     

SILVER TECHS: Support Remains Intact For Now     

• RES 4: $56.153 2.500 proj of the Aug 20 - Sep 16 - 17 price swing   
• RES 3: $55.444 2.382 proj of the Aug 20 - Sep 16 - 17 price swing
• RES 2: $55.000 - Round number resistance
• RES 1: $49.456/54.480 - High Oct 23 / 17 and the bull trigger   
• PRICE: $47.820 @ 08:14 GMT Nov 4
• SUP 1: $46.046 - 50-day EMA  
• SUP 2: $41.135 - Low Sep 17
• SUP 3: $40.000 - Round number support 
• SUP 4: $38.087 - Low AUg 27  

Trend signals in Silver are bullish and recent weakness is considered corrective. Note that the trend has recently been in overbought territory and the deeper retracement has allowed this to unwind. Support to watch lies at the 50-day EMA, at $46.046. It remains intact, however, a break would signal scope for a deeper retracement. Key resistance has been defined at $54.480, the Oct 17 high. Initial resistance is $49.456, Oct 23 high.